Will there be a new frontier AI model this month?
Claude Fable 5.5 or GPT Terra?
Grok 4.8 - maybe?
Best odds on the AI Race from
@Kalshi @Polymarket @trylimitless and @HyperliquidX
Just $POLY
Claude Fable 5.5 or GPT Terra?
Grok 4.8 - maybe?
Best odds on the AI Race from
@Kalshi @Polymarket @trylimitless and @HyperliquidX
Just $POLY
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Polyguana retweeted
Leverage for Prediction Markets will never be big.
At best it's a niche product.
Each dot is a type of Polymarket trader with 5x leverage, priced so the lender breaks even. Further right = more of them end up better off. Higher = the lender makes money on them. Bigger = more p reaches 50%. In every one, most traders end up worse off with leverage than without.
Now look at the two dots furthest right, pros and sports bettors. Both are below zero: the lender loses money on them.
The highest dots? Retail and bonders, the people who want leverage most and get hurt by it.
And the giant dot is whales, almost three-quarters of all the money. They're sitting on cash. They don't need a loan.
So it loses money on the traders it helps and makes money on the ones it hurts. That's a niche, not a market.
The audience for leverage is thin / no in the market yet.
Full case study in comments
At best it's a niche product.
Each dot is a type of Polymarket trader with 5x leverage, priced so the lender breaks even. Further right = more of them end up better off. Higher = the lender makes money on them. Bigger = more p reaches 50%. In every one, most traders end up worse off with leverage than without.
Now look at the two dots furthest right, pros and sports bettors. Both are below zero: the lender loses money on them.
The highest dots? Retail and bonders, the people who want leverage most and get hurt by it.
And the giant dot is whales, almost three-quarters of all the money. They're sitting on cash. They don't need a loan.
So it loses money on the traders it helps and makes money on the ones it hurts. That's a niche, not a market.
The audience for leverage is thin / no in the market yet.
Full case study in comments
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Polyguana retweeted
The real question: is W. Legate actually loyal to anyone?
> Become a Thiel Fellow
> Start as a left-wing Democrat bashing Trump
> Found a pillow startup Lose your co-founder
> Pivot to conservative and join Kalshi
> Jump ship from Kalshi to Polymarket
> Pump shady influencer campaigns for growretweeting racist posts
Say what you want about Legate. The man wears a lot of hats.
Is he a genius marketer who knows exactly how to adapt and find his place in the sun, or a carefully planted psyop?
What side are you on? | EP. 5
> Become a Thiel Fellow
> Start as a left-wing Democrat bashing Trump
> Found a pillow startup Lose your co-founder
> Pivot to conservative and join Kalshi
> Jump ship from Kalshi to Polymarket
> Pump shady influencer campaigns for growretweeting racist posts
Say what you want about Legate. The man wears a lot of hats.
Is he a genius marketer who knows exactly how to adapt and find his place in the sun, or a carefully planted psyop?
What side are you on? | EP. 5
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Traders put the next GPT Terra release by November 30 at 83%.
Our AI page tracks upcoming model releases alongside the LMArena leaderboard and markets on who finishes first.
See who leads now, what’s expected to ship next and how the odds change:
polyguana.net/predictions/ai…
Our AI page tracks upcoming model releases alongside the LMArena leaderboard and markets on who finishes first.
See who leads now, what’s expected to ship next and how the odds change:
polyguana.net/predictions/ai…
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Big elections ahead: Israel, BC, Bulgaria, Serbia, and the midterms.
Track the best odds and earn passive yield on your account using Polyguana.
Track the best odds and earn passive yield on your account using Polyguana.
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Polyguana retweeted
Claude Fable 5.5? Grok? What’s the real story with Mythos? 🤔
You’re already paying for the models - why not profit from the AI race?
Bet on upcoming model releases and benchmark kings with Polyguana.
The most precise odds, aggregated across venues.
You’re already paying for the models - why not profit from the AI race?
Bet on upcoming model releases and benchmark kings with Polyguana.
The most precise odds, aggregated across venues.
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Polyguana retweeted
🚨 Polymarket just fired it's its CMO @MatthewModabber after he got caught paying influencer to promote FAKE TRADES !
Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him.
Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign.
It found:
- $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real.
- 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings.
- Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning
Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own
But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all.
- > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account.
- anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing.
- he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades
This is a BIG blow for Shayne !
Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket.
Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone.
And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses.
His position has never been weaker.
It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.
Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him.
Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign.
It found:
- $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real.
- 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings.
- Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning
Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own
But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all.
- > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account.
- anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing.
- he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades
This is a BIG blow for Shayne !
Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket.
Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone.
And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses.
His position has never been weaker.
It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.
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Claude Fable 5.5? Grok? What’s the real story with Mythos? 🤔
You’re already paying for the models - why not profit from the AI race?
Bet on upcoming model releases and benchmark kings with Polyguana.
The most precise odds, aggregated across venues.
You’re already paying for the models - why not profit from the AI race?
Bet on upcoming model releases and benchmark kings with Polyguana.
The most precise odds, aggregated across venues.
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3,913
Polyguana retweeted
Looking for work in prediction markets? Look beyond Polymarket and Kalshi.
Our jobs board lists 250 openings across 37 companies. Those two account for 98 roles—the other 152 are spread across 35 employers.
Browse the openings:
pmwisdom.com/jobs
Our jobs board lists 250 openings across 37 companies. Those two account for 98 roles—the other 152 are spread across 35 employers.
Browse the openings:
pmwisdom.com/jobs
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Polyguana retweeted
You asked about Smart orders, so here they are 🦎
Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in.
Watch the video, and .co/zIsrGJGjrP
Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in.
Watch the video, and .co/zIsrGJGjrP
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You asked about Smart orders, so here they are 🦎
Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in.
Watch the video, and .co/zIsrGJGjrP
Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in.
Watch the video, and .co/zIsrGJGjrP
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Polyguana is aware of the php2shell exploit, eMudhra (emSign) CA leak & Node.js CVE-2026-111497.
Don't care. Because
- we do NOT use PHP
- we do NOT use Indian root certificates (not even in our packages)
Points distributing as expected & Still the cheapest prices in prediction markets
Don't care. Because
- we do NOT use PHP
- we do NOT use Indian root certificates (not even in our packages)
Points distributing as expected & Still the cheapest prices in prediction markets
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Polyguana retweeted
Haseeb is NOT telling you the full truth!
Here’s what actually happened behind closed doors with Shayne, Tarek, Peter Thiel, Mustafa, ICE, and one key player Bloomberg conveniently left out (you already know who).
Here’s what actually happened behind closed doors with Shayne, Tarek, Peter Thiel, Mustafa, ICE, and one key player Bloomberg conveniently left out (you already know who).
This is total nonsense.
We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece.
Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living he company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together.
After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception.
But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else.
It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal.
Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him.
Enough of this stupid FUD.
The end.
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The House looks comfortable for Democrats. The Senate is a tighter call.
Markets put their chances at 92% and 65%. Winning every Senate race they’re favored to win gets them to 52 seats, just one above the majority they need.
Track the races:
polyguana.net/predictions/mi…
Markets put their chances at 92% and 65%. Winning every Senate race they’re favored to win gets them to 52 seats, just one above the majority they need.
Track the races:
polyguana.net/predictions/mi…
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Polyguana retweeted
You asked: is my money safe on Polyguana?
Fair question. So we made a video 🐢
-- Deposits only ever pay back to the account that made them
-- The vault code can't be upgraded
-- Withdrawals can't be paused
-- Your trading wallet comes from Privy (owned by Stripe). We never see source is verified on the explorer. Give it to your own AI and ask what could go wrong
Nothing in crypto is risk-free, but we did our best.
polyguana.net/points/guide
Fair question. So we made a video 🐢
-- Deposits only ever pay back to the account that made them
-- The vault code can't be upgraded
-- Withdrawals can't be paused
-- Your trading wallet comes from Privy (owned by Stripe). We never see source is verified on the explorer. Give it to your own AI and ask what could go wrong
Nothing in crypto is risk-free, but we did our best.
polyguana.net/points/guide
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Polyguana retweeted
Nobody covers prediction markets quite like we do—so we decided to launch a show to break down the latest drama and alpha in the space.
Here’s what’s happening across the prediction market ecosystem right now:
Here’s what’s happening across the prediction market ecosystem right now:
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Polyguana retweeted
Republican. Democrat. Conservative. MAGA. Iguana. 🦎
Whoever you are, trade the Midterms with the absolute best UX, lowest fees, and full aggregation across @Polymarket, @Kalshi, @trylimitless , and @HyperliquidX HIP-4
Stop overpaying on spreads. Watch the demo 👇
Whoever you are, trade the Midterms with the absolute best UX, lowest fees, and full aggregation across @Polymarket, @Kalshi, @trylimitless , and @HyperliquidX HIP-4
Stop overpaying on spreads. Watch the demo 👇
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Polyguana retweeted
Picking the winner is one decision. Choosing where to buy is another
A few cents between venues changes what you stand to make on the same outcome
A few cents between venues changes what you stand to make on the same outcome
Republican. Democrat. Conservative. MAGA. Iguana. 🦎
Whoever you are, trade the Midterms with the absolute best UX, lowest fees, and full aggregation across @Polymarket, @Kalshi, @trylimitless , and @HyperliquidX HIP-4
Stop overpaying on spreads. Watch the demo 👇
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