Pinned Tweet
Nobody covers prediction markets quite like we do—so we decided to launch a show to break down the latest drama and alpha in the space.
Here’s what’s happening across the prediction market ecosystem right now:
Here’s what’s happening across the prediction market ecosystem right now:
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Strait of Hormuz reopening headlines haven't moved this market much.
Markets tracked on Polyguana give 12% to shipping traffic being back to normal by December 31. It was near 80% in May, and it's down 1 point over the past week despite reports of an Iranian reopening offer, ia denied.
The bar is high: a 7-day average of 60 ships a day. Odds point to about 25 ships for the whole week of October 19.
polyguana.net/market/pm-2176…
Markets tracked on Polyguana give 12% to shipping traffic being back to normal by December 31. It was near 80% in May, and it's down 1 point over the past week despite reports of an Iranian reopening offer, ia denied.
The bar is high: a 7-day average of 60 ships a day. Odds point to about 25 ships for the whole week of October 19.
polyguana.net/market/pm-2176…
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🆕 New project added to the prediction markets wiki
Polytrend
@Poly_trendAI is an AI-powered Polymarket analytics platform for whale tracking, momentum signals, and live market activity.
It monitors large positions and volume shifts to surface changes across active markets. ⚡️
Polytrend
@Poly_trendAI is an AI-powered Polymarket analytics platform for whale tracking, momentum signals, and live market activity.
It monitors large positions and volume shifts to surface changes across active markets. ⚡️
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PM Wisdom retweeted
Leverage for Prediction Markets will never be big.
At best it's a niche product.
Each dot is a type of Polymarket trader with 5x leverage, priced so the lender breaks even. Further right = more of them end up better off. Higher = the lender makes money on them. Bigger = more p reaches 50%. In every one, most traders end up worse off with leverage than without.
Now look at the two dots furthest right, pros and sports bettors. Both are below zero: the lender loses money on them.
The highest dots? Retail and bonders, the people who want leverage most and get hurt by it.
And the giant dot is whales, almost three-quarters of all the money. They're sitting on cash. They don't need a loan.
So it loses money on the traders it helps and makes money on the ones it hurts. That's a niche, not a market.
The audience for leverage is thin / no in the market yet.
Full case study in comments
At best it's a niche product.
Each dot is a type of Polymarket trader with 5x leverage, priced so the lender breaks even. Further right = more of them end up better off. Higher = the lender makes money on them. Bigger = more p reaches 50%. In every one, most traders end up worse off with leverage than without.
Now look at the two dots furthest right, pros and sports bettors. Both are below zero: the lender loses money on them.
The highest dots? Retail and bonders, the people who want leverage most and get hurt by it.
And the giant dot is whales, almost three-quarters of all the money. They're sitting on cash. They don't need a loan.
So it loses money on the traders it helps and makes money on the ones it hurts. That's a niche, not a market.
The audience for leverage is thin / no in the market yet.
Full case study in comments
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🆕 New project added to the prediction markets wiki
Poly-Sim.com
@YanivHayoun1 brings Polymarket research, wallet tracking, and a virtual trading simulator into one toolkit.
Explore market rankings, whale activity, and a geopolitical market map. ⚡️
Poly-Sim.com
@YanivHayoun1 brings Polymarket research, wallet tracking, and a virtual trading simulator into one toolkit.
Explore market rankings, whale activity, and a geopolitical market map. ⚡️
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Google’s AI lead looks much less secure beyond October.
Markets tracked on Polyguana give Google roughly 90% to finish October with the top model on LMArena. That falls to 55% for November and 41% for year-end.
The near-term market heavily favours Google holding its lead. e leaving much more room for a challenger.
Backing Google for October and backing it for December are two very different views on how quickly the competition can catch up.
polyguana.net/predictions/ai…
Markets tracked on Polyguana give Google roughly 90% to finish October with the top model on LMArena. That falls to 55% for November and 41% for year-end.
The near-term market heavily favours Google holding its lead. e leaving much more room for a challenger.
Backing Google for October and backing it for December are two very different views on how quickly the competition can catch up.
polyguana.net/predictions/ai…
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PM Wisdom retweeted
Where do you find the best prediction-market trading tools and build a stack that fits your style?
> Platforms
> Wallet trackers
> Trading terminals
> Scanners
> Analytics
> Execution tools
611 projects. 18 categories. One map
Stop hunting tools one X post at a time
Bookmark this. @PredMarketWiki
> Platforms
> Wallet trackers
> Trading terminals
> Scanners
> Analytics
> Execution tools
611 projects. 18 categories. One map
Stop hunting tools one X post at a time
Bookmark this. @PredMarketWiki
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PM Wisdom retweeted
Big elections ahead: Israel, BC, Bulgaria, Serbia, and the midterms.
Track the best odds and earn passive yield on your account using Polyguana.
Track the best odds and earn passive yield on your account using Polyguana.
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PM Wisdom retweeted
Nobody covers prediction markets quite like we do—so we decided to launch a show to break down the latest drama and alpha in the space.
Here’s what’s happening across the prediction market ecosystem right now:
Here’s what’s happening across the prediction market ecosystem right now:
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New markets, price alerts, odds comparisons.
36 discovery and scanning projects on the PMWisdom ecosystem map, all in one place.
pmwisdom.com/ecosystem-map?…
36 discovery and scanning projects on the PMWisdom ecosystem map, all in one place.
pmwisdom.com/ecosystem-map?…
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🆕 New project added to the prediction markets wiki
Glypse
@GlypseAI helps users research Polymarket and Kalshi with market screening, event briefings, and social analytics.
Its toolkit also includes paired-market analysis and a custom-pair arbitrage scanner. ⚡️
Glypse
@GlypseAI helps users research Polymarket and Kalshi with market screening, event briefings, and social analytics.
Its toolkit also includes paired-market analysis and a custom-pair arbitrage scanner. ⚡️
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Looking for work in prediction markets? Look beyond Polymarket and Kalshi.
Our jobs board lists 250 openings across 37 companies. Those two account for 98 roles—the other 152 are spread across 35 employers.
Browse the openings:
pmwisdom.com/jobs
Our jobs board lists 250 openings across 37 companies. Those two account for 98 roles—the other 152 are spread across 35 employers.
Browse the openings:
pmwisdom.com/jobs
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PM Wisdom retweeted
You asked about Smart orders, so here they are 🦎
Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in.
Watch the video, and .co/zIsrGJGjrP
Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in.
Watch the video, and .co/zIsrGJGjrP
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PM Wisdom retweeted
Polyguana is aware of the php2shell exploit, eMudhra (emSign) CA leak & Node.js CVE-2026-111497.
Don't care. Because
- we do NOT use PHP
- we do NOT use Indian root certificates (not even in our packages)
Points distributing as expected & Still the cheapest prices in prediction markets
Don't care. Because
- we do NOT use PHP
- we do NOT use Indian root certificates (not even in our packages)
Points distributing as expected & Still the cheapest prices in prediction markets
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PM Wisdom retweeted
Haseeb is NOT telling you the full truth!
Here’s what actually happened behind closed doors with Shayne, Tarek, Peter Thiel, Mustafa, ICE, and one key player Bloomberg conveniently left out (you already know who).
Here’s what actually happened behind closed doors with Shayne, Tarek, Peter Thiel, Mustafa, ICE, and one key player Bloomberg conveniently left out (you already know who).
This is total nonsense.
We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece.
Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living he company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together.
After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception.
But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else.
It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal.
Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him.
Enough of this stupid FUD.
The end.
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PM Wisdom retweeted
The House looks comfortable for Democrats. The Senate is a tighter call.
Markets put their chances at 92% and 65%. Winning every Senate race they’re favored to win gets them to 52 seats, just one above the majority they need.
Track the races:
polyguana.net/predictions/mi…
Markets put their chances at 92% and 65%. Winning every Senate race they’re favored to win gets them to 52 seats, just one above the majority they need.
Track the races:
polyguana.net/predictions/mi…
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PM Wisdom retweeted
Spent 30 minutes in line at Dominique Ansel Bakery in Soho today, running a little Polymarket CEO experiment in my head.
If Shayne is really out in the next couple of months. Who is gonna run Polymarket?
Why should he be out, you say? The setup is pure cinema:
-- Polymarket is with outages, angry customers, lawsuits, and a fresh CFTC investigation.
-- The NFA reportedly threatened to drop them as a client over record-keeping
-- Raising at a $21B valuation while weighing an IPO against a token.
Best case, Shayne goes exec chair and hands an operator the keys.
If I had a board seat, here's who I'd call:
1) @AsiffHirji
- Already did this exact job: Coinbase president/COO, scaled it past $1B in revenue.
- Ameritrade and HP restructuring on the résumé.
- Catch: never the top CEO, no CFTC reps.
2) Heath Tarbert.
- Ex-CFTC chair, ex-Citadel Securities CLO, now Circle president (aka the USDC guy).
- Best answer to the regulator problem.
- Catch: not a product operator, and Circle's CFO is leaving at year-end, so good luck prying him loose.
3) Chris Concannon
- Took Bats public, sold it to Cboe.
- Runs MarketAxess, which ICE agreed to buy. Basically ICE's dream pick.
- Catch: zero crypto
If it ever happened:
• Hirji = Polymarket grows up without losing the plot
• Tarbert = the CFTC problem gets a lot quieter
• Concannon = welcome to the ICE Cinematic Universe
Soho bakery lines remain undefeated.
If Shayne is really out in the next couple of months. Who is gonna run Polymarket?
Why should he be out, you say? The setup is pure cinema:
-- Polymarket is with outages, angry customers, lawsuits, and a fresh CFTC investigation.
-- The NFA reportedly threatened to drop them as a client over record-keeping
-- Raising at a $21B valuation while weighing an IPO against a token.
Best case, Shayne goes exec chair and hands an operator the keys.
If I had a board seat, here's who I'd call:
1) @AsiffHirji
- Already did this exact job: Coinbase president/COO, scaled it past $1B in revenue.
- Ameritrade and HP restructuring on the résumé.
- Catch: never the top CEO, no CFTC reps.
2) Heath Tarbert.
- Ex-CFTC chair, ex-Citadel Securities CLO, now Circle president (aka the USDC guy).
- Best answer to the regulator problem.
- Catch: not a product operator, and Circle's CFO is leaving at year-end, so good luck prying him loose.
3) Chris Concannon
- Took Bats public, sold it to Cboe.
- Runs MarketAxess, which ICE agreed to buy. Basically ICE's dream pick.
- Catch: zero crypto
If it ever happened:
• Hirji = Polymarket grows up without losing the plot
• Tarbert = the CFTC problem gets a lot quieter
• Concannon = welcome to the ICE Cinematic Universe
Soho bakery lines remain undefeated.
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