Pinned Tweet
Prediction markets have a problem few people talk about
On smaller events the books are thin
@magicmarkets One of the best builders on Polymarket, 5th by 30d volume
>> 25+ liquidity providers
>> One order book
>> One of the best prices, from whichever source has it
>> Zero commission
NFL. NBA. MLpions League. Mexico Liga. NCAA. ATP. Esports
Thin books were never a prediction market problem
They were a fragmentation problem
Capital goes where the best price is at size
Now its all in one book
On smaller events the books are thin
@magicmarkets One of the best builders on Polymarket, 5th by 30d volume
>> 25+ liquidity providers
>> One order book
>> One of the best prices, from whichever source has it
>> Zero commission
NFL. NBA. MLpions League. Mexico Liga. NCAA. ATP. Esports
Thin books were never a prediction market problem
They were a fragmentation problem
Capital goes where the best price is at size
Now its all in one book
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The search on @LeadpoetAI returned 10 targeted companies and contacts for a prediction market analytics ICP
Instead of generic industry filters it surfaced teams building data products, researching liquidity, and executing quant strategies
One result surfaced Chang Xie at r experience as Portfolio Manager at WeQuant
Granular role mapping beats broad company lists when targeting real decision makers
Instead of generic industry filters it surfaced teams building data products, researching liquidity, and executing quant strategies
One result surfaced Chang Xie at r experience as Portfolio Manager at WeQuant
Granular role mapping beats broad company lists when targeting real decision makers
We just killed cold outreach.
Introducing Leadpoet: the AI sales agent that finds buyers who need you now, writes personalized outreach, and follows up on LinkedIn and email.
Used by Dropbox, OnePatch (YC26), Muttdata.
Comment “Poet” for 100 free lead credits to find qualified buyers.
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DraftKings already answered that
Look at their own stack
They own the frontend, the exchange and the market maker running risk management and pricing
European operators ran this playbook years ago with Betfair and Smarkets
The issue isnt fake prices
Its that the operator w as a free pricing oracle to protect the sportsbook it prices 95% in house while internal market makers cherry pick the retail flow
Look at their own stack
They own the frontend, the exchange and the market maker running risk management and pricing
European operators ran this playbook years ago with Betfair and Smarkets
The issue isnt fake prices
Its that the operator w as a free pricing oracle to protect the sportsbook it prices 95% in house while internal market makers cherry pick the retail flow
draftkings saying their prediction exchange hit #3 in us volume last week (~$1b).
they already have the users so that tracks. the interesting bit is whether the prices stay honest when the same shop also runs the sportsbook.
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Millions of views do not mean you reached the right audience
In EP36 of @thegodmodepod Gannon Breslin breaks down content distribution and building a startup on a Navy ship with shared Starlink from midnight to 3 AM
Real building is messy execution under terrible conditions
Watch EP36: youtu.be/HawQxKYw9zk
In EP36 of @thegodmodepod Gannon Breslin breaks down content distribution and building a startup on a Navy ship with shared Starlink from midnight to 3 AM
Real building is messy execution under terrible conditions
Watch EP36: youtu.be/HawQxKYw9zk
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ghøst retweeted
67¢ on Polymarket doesn't necessarily mean you're paying 67¢
I checked a real tennis market. After taker fees, the effective price was 68.1¢
MagicMarkets showed 64.5¢ for the same outcome. Here's what that meant for a $100 trade
I compared Michele Ribecai vs Jacopo Vasami ele Ribecai:
-> Polymarket payout: $147
-> MagicMarkets payout: $155
-> $8 more on MagicMarkets
Same match. Same bet size. Different prices
Thumper is a free Chrome extension by @MagicMarkets that shows MagicMarkets prices alongside Polymarket
MagicMarkets offers zero commission, but isn't always cheaper
Don't just check the displayed odds. Check the actual payout
I checked a real tennis market. After taker fees, the effective price was 68.1¢
MagicMarkets showed 64.5¢ for the same outcome. Here's what that meant for a $100 trade
I compared Michele Ribecai vs Jacopo Vasami ele Ribecai:
-> Polymarket payout: $147
-> MagicMarkets payout: $155
-> $8 more on MagicMarkets
Same match. Same bet size. Different prices
Thumper is a free Chrome extension by @MagicMarkets that shows MagicMarkets prices alongside Polymarket
MagicMarkets offers zero commission, but isn't always cheaper
Don't just check the displayed odds. Check the actual payout
1/ i built a chrome extension for @magicmarkets that shows you when polymarket isn't the cheapest place to take a sports position
it's called thumper. Free to use, no account required 🧵
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I turned the @testdriveso car from a cartoon mascot into a realistic sports car with @Kling_ai in just 5 seconds
The transformation was the best part. The orange design carried through, and the final car looked detailed and cinematic
For such a short clip, Kling managed to ke an actual transformation rather than a simple cut to another image
One thing I'd like more control over is how much of the original character survives the change
Sometimes I want a full redesign, other times I want the mascot to stay recognizable
The transformation was the best part. The orange design carried through, and the final car looked detailed and cinematic
For such a short clip, Kling managed to ke an actual transformation rather than a simple cut to another image
One thing I'd like more control over is how much of the original character survives the change
Sometimes I want a full redesign, other times I want the mascot to stay recognizable
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AI-generated code can work exactly as written and still do the wrong thing
I ran into this while building an AI agent: there was a contradiction in its logic that I hadn't caught myself. @prelint_ai helped me find it by checking the implementation against the intended product rt I care about. As agents take on more of the building, the risk isn't just broken code. It's shipping something that works technically but contradicts what the product is supposed to do
I ran into this while building an AI agent: there was a contradiction in its logic that I hadn't caught myself. @prelint_ai helped me find it by checking the implementation against the intended product rt I care about. As agents take on more of the building, the risk isn't just broken code. It's shipping something that works technically but contradicts what the product is supposed to do
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Your community makes one call. Every voter gets an NFT
@prophetthedog’s APE OR FADE turns a YES/NO vote into a collective onchain prediction
Sign in with X or connect a wallet, then vote YES (APE) or NO (FADE)
Voting is free, and Prophet creates a wallet if you need one
If ight, randomly selected voters win rewards
If it misses, you can burn your NFT in the Graveyard for a free Moonshot spin. Prizes are possible, not guaranteed
Live question:
Will PaperTrade TVL be above $35M on Tuesday, Oct 27?
Cast your vote: graveyard.prophetthedog.xyz/v/zscdao
@prophetthedog’s APE OR FADE turns a YES/NO vote into a collective onchain prediction
Sign in with X or connect a wallet, then vote YES (APE) or NO (FADE)
Voting is free, and Prophet creates a wallet if you need one
If ight, randomly selected voters win rewards
If it misses, you can burn your NFT in the Graveyard for a free Moonshot spin. Prizes are possible, not guaranteed
Live question:
Will PaperTrade TVL be above $35M on Tuesday, Oct 27?
Cast your vote: graveyard.prophetthedog.xyz/v/zscdao
Easiest money on table if you knows what is Predictions.
So you can turn someone else’s rug into your own upside.
Predict Papertrade TVL: $100M —> $36M
On Prophet you can bet it stays ≤ $35M by Tuesday and get an NFT that shows your side.
graveyard.prophetthedog.xyz/v/zscdao
> If you’re right PHET
> If you’re wrong → burn the NFT and spin the wheel for some tokens anyway.
Downside is basically zero, upside either way.
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I set up my first search on @LeadpoetAI for prediction market traders and analytics teams
Instead of filtering by job title alone, I defined the audience, described the product they might need and added four buying signals: interest in analytics tools, building trading t researchers, and discussing data or liquidity problems
The request is now sourcing 10 companies. The real test is whether those signals lead to relevant prospects, not just people who fit the profile on paper
Instead of filtering by job title alone, I defined the audience, described the product they might need and added four buying signals: interest in analytics tools, building trading t researchers, and discussing data or liquidity problems
The request is now sourcing 10 companies. The real test is whether those signals lead to relevant prospects, not just people who fit the profile on paper
We just killed cold outreach.
Introducing Leadpoet: the AI sales agent that finds buyers who need you now, writes personalized outreach, and follows up on LinkedIn and email.
Used by Dropbox, OnePatch (YC26), Muttdata.
Comment “Poet” for 100 free lead credits to find qualified buyers.
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Where do you find the best prediction-market trading tools and build a stack that fits your style?
> Platforms
> Wallet trackers
> Trading terminals
> Scanners
> Analytics
> Execution tools
611 projects. 18 categories. One map
Stop hunting tools one X post at a time
Bookmark this. @PredMarketWiki
> Platforms
> Wallet trackers
> Trading terminals
> Scanners
> Analytics
> Execution tools
611 projects. 18 categories. One map
Stop hunting tools one X post at a time
Bookmark this. @PredMarketWiki
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After using @testdriveso across multiple campaigns, I can check individual post scores, performance bonuses and whether my review meets the brief
That covers the performance of each post, but I’d also like a clearer picture of my position in the creator community
One feature I’d add is a shareable Creator Card, similar to Stitch3’s scorecard. It could show your rank, strongest category, influence and top connections in one place
Stitch3’s card makes your position in its ecosystem visible at a glance
TestDrive could do the same for its creators, turning campaign activity into something easier to understand and share
That covers the performance of each post, but I’d also like a clearer picture of my position in the creator community
One feature I’d add is a shareable Creator Card, similar to Stitch3’s scorecard. It could show your rank, strongest category, influence and top connections in one place
Stitch3’s card makes your position in its ecosystem visible at a glance
TestDrive could do the same for its creators, turning campaign activity into something easier to understand and share
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UFC 333 tomorrow, Merab vs Yan
Heres how Thumper from @magicmarkets works
Same fight, three prices
>> 59c on the Polymarket ticket
>> 60.2c with fee
>> 58.5c on the MagicMarkets
For a trader the real gap is 1.7c: break even drops from 60.2% to 58.5% and $100 buys about 4.8 more shares
Cheapnt need to prediction
Heres how Thumper from @magicmarkets works
Same fight, three prices
>> 59c on the Polymarket ticket
>> 60.2c with fee
>> 58.5c on the MagicMarkets
For a trader the real gap is 1.7c: break even drops from 60.2% to 58.5% and $100 buys about 4.8 more shares
Cheapnt need to prediction
1/ i built a chrome extension for @magicmarkets that shows you when polymarket isn't the cheapest place to take a sports position
it's called thumper. Free to use, no account required 🧵
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Tried @excalidraw and went straight to drawing
The interface is simple, and Ctrl+Z works for undoing mistakes
Two small UX issues: the language switches based on your IP without asking, and I couldn't find a visible Undo button
Let users choose their language on entry and make Undo easier to spot
The interface is simple, and Ctrl+Z works for undoing mistakes
Two small UX issues: the language switches based on your IP without asking, and I couldn't find a visible Undo button
Let users choose their language on entry and make Undo easier to spot
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ghøst retweeted
Insurance claims run on photos. So what happens when the photo is lying?
I built my #PerturbVideo submission around that question, using Angle 3: The claim that never happened
A real example was reported by The Guardian in May 2024. A van photo was taken from a tradesman's show a cracked bumper, and sent to UK insurer LV= with a fake invoice for more than £1,000. LV= had concerns and passed it to its fraud team. Allianz UK said claims involving app-edited images, videos and documents rose 300% between 2021-22 and 2022-23
My video then plays out a clearly labeled, made-up scenario where an automated claims model approves a doctored photo. A few tuned pixels that a person would never notice can leave a model wrong and still confident
The cost doesn't just vanish. Insurers cover the payout, and honest policyholders feel it in their premiums. The Coalition Against Insurance Fraud estimates US insurance fraud at $308.6 billion a year in its 2022 study, which is an industry figure and not something Perturb measured
Perturb @perturbaix flips the usual order and breaks the model first, before a fraudster gets the chance. On Bittensor Subnet 26, miners search for the smallest change that makes a model's answer flip. Validators confirm the flip is real and the change stays invisible, copied work gets no reward, and whoever finds the best attacks earns the most $TAO
For the team behind the model, that testing turns into a robustness score, a vulnerability heatmap, verified attack data to retrain on and an on-chain certificate of testing. Details live at perturbai.io
As of now, image-model testing is live and the network has been running since May 2026. Text, LLM and multimodal attacks are still on the roadmap, and November presales are a target rather than a done deal
I built my #PerturbVideo submission around that question, using Angle 3: The claim that never happened
A real example was reported by The Guardian in May 2024. A van photo was taken from a tradesman's show a cracked bumper, and sent to UK insurer LV= with a fake invoice for more than £1,000. LV= had concerns and passed it to its fraud team. Allianz UK said claims involving app-edited images, videos and documents rose 300% between 2021-22 and 2022-23
My video then plays out a clearly labeled, made-up scenario where an automated claims model approves a doctored photo. A few tuned pixels that a person would never notice can leave a model wrong and still confident
The cost doesn't just vanish. Insurers cover the payout, and honest policyholders feel it in their premiums. The Coalition Against Insurance Fraud estimates US insurance fraud at $308.6 billion a year in its 2022 study, which is an industry figure and not something Perturb measured
Perturb @perturbaix flips the usual order and breaks the model first, before a fraudster gets the chance. On Bittensor Subnet 26, miners search for the smallest change that makes a model's answer flip. Validators confirm the flip is real and the change stays invisible, copied work gets no reward, and whoever finds the best attacks earns the most $TAO
For the team behind the model, that testing turns into a robustness score, a vulnerability heatmap, verified attack data to retrain on and an on-chain certificate of testing. Details live at perturbai.io
As of now, image-model testing is live and the network has been running since May 2026. Text, LLM and multimodal attacks are still on the roadmap, and November presales are a target rather than a done deal
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ghøst retweeted
The price on screen isnt always the price you pay
On Liverpool vs Villarreal, Polymarkets draw costs 21.8c all-in, while MagicMarkets offers 20.8c
Thats a $12 difference in potential payout on a $100 trade
Across 100 comparable trades, thats $1,200. Same stake, different r is a free Chrome extension that puts @magicmarkets prices next to Polymarket sports markets, so you can compare the real cost before trading
Check the price
Then take the trade
On Liverpool vs Villarreal, Polymarkets draw costs 21.8c all-in, while MagicMarkets offers 20.8c
Thats a $12 difference in potential payout on a $100 trade
Across 100 comparable trades, thats $1,200. Same stake, different r is a free Chrome extension that puts @magicmarkets prices next to Polymarket sports markets, so you can compare the real cost before trading
Check the price
Then take the trade
1/ i built a chrome extension for @magicmarkets that shows you when polymarket isn't the cheapest place to take a sports position
it's called thumper. Free to use, no account required 🧵
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Tested Cua Spaces by @trycua with Claude Code
I used Spaces to give the agent a simple task: open Notepad, write a product list and save the file
It worked
The part that could be clearer is the initial setup, especially for people new to using AI agents through a desktop environment
I used Spaces to give the agent a simple task: open Notepad, write a product list and save the file
It worked
The part that could be clearer is the initial setup, especially for people new to using AI agents through a desktop environment
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AI doesnt operate in a lab
> Lighting changes
> Angles change
> Conditions change
Real-world inputs dont care how well your model scored on a clean benchmark
@perturbaix tests what happens when the inputs stop being predictable, finding weaknesses before they become real-world failures
> Lighting changes
> Angles change
> Conditions change
Real-world inputs dont care how well your model scored on a clean benchmark
@perturbaix tests what happens when the inputs stop being predictable, finding weaknesses before they become real-world failures
Angle 1: The Taped Sign
A tiny piece of tape
A very different reading
In 2020, McAfee showed that tape could make an older vision system read 35 mph as 85 mph
For automakers, a misread sign can become a safety and liability risk. @perturbaix helps find these weaknesses ittensor Subnet 26, miners compete to find tiny changes that fool AI models
Validators check that each attack works and remains imperceptible. Copies earn nothing
Customers get robustness scores, vulnerability heatmaps, and verified data for retraining
Image-model testing is live
Text, LLM, and multimodal attacks are still on the roadmap.
Find weaknesses before attackers do
#PerturbVideo
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Tested @OpenBot_ on Windows with a free OpenCode model, no API key needed
I set up an agent to check Snitch3, list its key details and save them to a Markdown file
It got the job done in about three minutes, and the details matched the site
The rough part was watching it roken fragments of text instead of a clear progress update
I set up an agent to check Snitch3, list its key details and save them to a Markdown file
It got the job done in about three minutes, and the details matched the site
The rough part was watching it roken fragments of text instead of a clear progress update
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I ran the free Agentsy Report scan on Probly
The AI description was accurate: a prediction market platform covering politics, sports, crypto and finance
But PROBLY appeared in only 6 of 14 answers and its own site was cited in just 2
The clearest finding: across 8 answers to stions, PROBLY appeared zero times
AI can describe a product correctly and still miss it when people search by category
The AI description was accurate: a prediction market platform covering politics, sports, crypto and finance
But PROBLY appeared in only 6 of 14 answers and its own site was cited in just 2
The clearest finding: across 8 answers to stions, PROBLY appeared zero times
AI can describe a product correctly and still miss it when people search by category
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Builder codes turn perps into a distribution layer for Polymarket
For terminals, the edge is capturing flow across event-driven and continuous markets under one roof
For terminals, the edge is capturing flow across event-driven and continuous markets under one roof
Builder codes are now live for Polymarket Perps.
Integrate perps directly into your product and let users trade perpetual markets alongside predictions - all without leaving your product.
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Glad to see you taking part in TestDrive!
I been doing the tests myself, and its nice to see ppl sharing their experiences with different tools
Curious to see what you end up testing and what you think of it
I been doing the tests myself, and its nice to see ppl sharing their experiences with different tools
Curious to see what you end up testing and what you think of it
I've tested a lot of platforms, so I joined a rewarded Test Drive from @testdriveso to check out the Test Track.
The UI is clean, everything feels intuitive, and signing up with X took 2 seconds. I’d just like to understand the leaderboard criteria better. Really enjoyed the to join more test drives in the future!
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