Pinned Tweet
My $WAR vault has reached +25% this month
that's 244% APY for investors !
not bad for passive yield.
the vault statistics actually show only 62% APY because they count from february when the vault was created, but not launched yet.
In reality (1+0.25)^(12/3) = 2.44 so the i can keep this rate
the chart is pretty smooth lately because i'm trying to stay diversified and never exceeding 10% bankroll per position.
TVL has also grown +3x from $2.6K last month to $8.6k now from all the next deposits but there is still room to grow so don't hesitate to chip in.
I will put the link below for those that want to profit from $WAR 👇
that's 244% APY for investors !
not bad for passive yield.
the vault statistics actually show only 62% APY because they count from february when the vault was created, but not launched yet.
In reality (1+0.25)^(12/3) = 2.44 so the i can keep this rate
the chart is pretty smooth lately because i'm trying to stay diversified and never exceeding 10% bankroll per position.
TVL has also grown +3x from $2.6K last month to $8.6k now from all the next deposits but there is still room to grow so don't hesitate to chip in.
I will put the link below for those that want to profit from $WAR 👇
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Internet Child retweeted
Romanian President is on TV accusing Russia of bombing their ships and says he sent his F-16s to destroy Russian drones.
Yet Polymarket ruled that there was NO "Russia x NATO military clash".
It may seem weird at first, but if you had read my previous post you would have why 👇
The rules explicitly exclude interception of Russian attack munitions targeting third parties.
In other words, shooting down a Russian drone doesn't automatically qualify as a NATO x Russia military clash *if that drone was not aimed at a NATO country*.
So what happens when a NATO intercepts a drone withing it's territory ?
A - we assume the drone was aimed at the NATO country until proven otherwise
B - we assumed the drone was aimed a 3rd part until proven to have been aimed at the NATO country
The answer was given in a previous clarification.
On August 20, Romanian forces fired on a Russian maritime drone near it's coast yet Polymarket clarified to NO.
They cited "insufficient evidence the drone was targeting Romania"
Therefore it's B.
You need definitive proof that a munition was aimed at the NATO country for it's interception to qualify.
Judging by this precedent it was clear that the latest events would also resolve to NO.
Polymarket clarified NO because :
> The ships hit by russia were commercial ships in transit (3rd parties).
> The intercepted Russian drones had no confirmed targets (Possible 3rd parties).
You may think these are dumb rules, but that clarification is entirely consistent with precedent.
Yet Polymarket ruled that there was NO "Russia x NATO military clash".
It may seem weird at first, but if you had read my previous post you would have why 👇
The rules explicitly exclude interception of Russian attack munitions targeting third parties.
In other words, shooting down a Russian drone doesn't automatically qualify as a NATO x Russia military clash *if that drone was not aimed at a NATO country*.
So what happens when a NATO intercepts a drone withing it's territory ?
A - we assume the drone was aimed at the NATO country until proven otherwise
B - we assumed the drone was aimed a 3rd part until proven to have been aimed at the NATO country
The answer was given in a previous clarification.
On August 20, Romanian forces fired on a Russian maritime drone near it's coast yet Polymarket clarified to NO.
They cited "insufficient evidence the drone was targeting Romania"
Therefore it's B.
You need definitive proof that a munition was aimed at the NATO country for it's interception to qualify.
Judging by this precedent it was clear that the latest events would also resolve to NO.
Polymarket clarified NO because :
> The ships hit by russia were commercial ships in transit (3rd parties).
> The intercepted Russian drones had no confirmed targets (Possible 3rd parties).
You may think these are dumb rules, but that clarification is entirely consistent with precedent.
Hard agree with this take
The "NATO x Russia military clash" markets are very overrated since the clarification dropped
the rule say that if a drone or missile originally aimed at a 3rd party (Ukraine) is shot down, it wont qualify
Before the clarification you could interpret drone isn't confirmed to have been originally aimed at Ukraine, it's YES
But the precedent set by the clarification transforms it into :
> If the drone isn't confirmed NOT to have been originally aimed at Ukraine, it's NO
It's very hard to clear this bar because Russia is unlikely to admit to targeting a NATO country, even if they do.
Speculation by the receiving country that they were the primary target have already been ruled to not qualify
Good call by @QuotientHQ
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Romanian President is on TV accusing Russia of bombing their ships and says he sent his F-16s to destroy Russian drones.
Yet Polymarket ruled that there was NO "Russia x NATO military clash".
It may seem weird at first, but if you had read my previous post you would have why 👇
The rules explicitly exclude interception of Russian attack munitions targeting third parties.
In other words, shooting down a Russian drone doesn't automatically qualify as a NATO x Russia military clash *if that drone was not aimed at a NATO country*.
So what happens when a NATO intercepts a drone withing it's territory ?
A - we assume the drone was aimed at the NATO country until proven otherwise
B - we assumed the drone was aimed a 3rd part until proven to have been aimed at the NATO country
The answer was given in a previous clarification.
On August 20, Romanian forces fired on a Russian maritime drone near it's coast yet Polymarket clarified to NO.
They cited "insufficient evidence the drone was targeting Romania"
Therefore it's B.
You need definitive proof that a munition was aimed at the NATO country for it's interception to qualify.
Judging by this precedent it was clear that the latest events would also resolve to NO.
Polymarket clarified NO because :
> The ships hit by russia were commercial ships in transit (3rd parties).
> The intercepted Russian drones had no confirmed targets (Possible 3rd parties).
You may think these are dumb rules, but that clarification is entirely consistent with precedent.
Yet Polymarket ruled that there was NO "Russia x NATO military clash".
It may seem weird at first, but if you had read my previous post you would have why 👇
The rules explicitly exclude interception of Russian attack munitions targeting third parties.
In other words, shooting down a Russian drone doesn't automatically qualify as a NATO x Russia military clash *if that drone was not aimed at a NATO country*.
So what happens when a NATO intercepts a drone withing it's territory ?
A - we assume the drone was aimed at the NATO country until proven otherwise
B - we assumed the drone was aimed a 3rd part until proven to have been aimed at the NATO country
The answer was given in a previous clarification.
On August 20, Romanian forces fired on a Russian maritime drone near it's coast yet Polymarket clarified to NO.
They cited "insufficient evidence the drone was targeting Romania"
Therefore it's B.
You need definitive proof that a munition was aimed at the NATO country for it's interception to qualify.
Judging by this precedent it was clear that the latest events would also resolve to NO.
Polymarket clarified NO because :
> The ships hit by russia were commercial ships in transit (3rd parties).
> The intercepted Russian drones had no confirmed targets (Possible 3rd parties).
You may think these are dumb rules, but that clarification is entirely consistent with precedent.
Hard agree with this take
The "NATO x Russia military clash" markets are very overrated since the clarification dropped
the rule say that if a drone or missile originally aimed at a 3rd party (Ukraine) is shot down, it wont qualify
Before the clarification you could interpret drone isn't confirmed to have been originally aimed at Ukraine, it's YES
But the precedent set by the clarification transforms it into :
> If the drone isn't confirmed NOT to have been originally aimed at Ukraine, it's NO
It's very hard to clear this bar because Russia is unlikely to admit to targeting a NATO country, even if they do.
Speculation by the receiving country that they were the primary target have already been ruled to not qualify
Good call by @QuotientHQ
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Internet Child retweeted
The real question: is W. Legate actually loyal to anyone?
> Become a Thiel Fellow
> Start as a left-wing Democrat bashing Trump
> Found a pillow startup Lose your co-founder
> Pivot to conservative and join Kalshi
> Jump ship from Kalshi to Polymarket
> Pump shady influencer campaigns for growretweeting racist posts
Say what you want about Legate. The man wears a lot of hats.
Is he a genius marketer who knows exactly how to adapt and find his place in the sun, or a carefully planted psyop?
What side are you on? | EP. 5
> Become a Thiel Fellow
> Start as a left-wing Democrat bashing Trump
> Found a pillow startup Lose your co-founder
> Pivot to conservative and join Kalshi
> Jump ship from Kalshi to Polymarket
> Pump shady influencer campaigns for growretweeting racist posts
Say what you want about Legate. The man wears a lot of hats.
Is he a genius marketer who knows exactly how to adapt and find his place in the sun, or a carefully planted psyop?
What side are you on? | EP. 5
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Internet Child retweeted
Traders put the next GPT Terra release by November 30 at 83%.
Our AI page tracks upcoming model releases alongside the LMArena leaderboard and markets on who finishes first.
See who leads now, what’s expected to ship next and how the odds change:
polyguana.net/predictions/ai…
Our AI page tracks upcoming model releases alongside the LMArena leaderboard and markets on who finishes first.
See who leads now, what’s expected to ship next and how the odds change:
polyguana.net/predictions/ai…
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Internet Child retweeted
Claude Fable 5.5? Grok? What’s the real story with Mythos? 🤔
You’re already paying for the models - why not profit from the AI race?
Bet on upcoming model releases and benchmark kings with Polyguana.
The most precise odds, aggregated across venues.
You’re already paying for the models - why not profit from the AI race?
Bet on upcoming model releases and benchmark kings with Polyguana.
The most precise odds, aggregated across venues.
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Internet Child retweeted
The CFTC is cracking down on Sports prediction markets.
It just banned exchanges from proposing new type of sports contracts.
Looks like regulator are tying to slowly choke out sports markets
The CFTC contacted @Novig and @ProphetX and ordered them to take down the following the 1st points in a basketball game?
- Will any NFL end with a final score never seen before?
- Will an MLB game produce a never-before-seen score?
- Who will score the 1st point in a Football game?
They argue that these categories are prone to manipulaton.
If you remember it's the same argument that they used to force Kalshi to ban Sports mention markets
Regulations are dropping at an increasing rate :
- July: CFTC forces Kalshi to ban bets on sport mention.
- September: The CFTC send a warning about "manipulation risks" in mention markets in general
- October (Now): The CFTC bans first goal and scorigami markets
---- next ----
- The CFTC bans mention markets ?
- The CFTC drops sports market entirely (reclassied as gambling) ?
Is the Trump admin starting to turn against prediction markets ? Or is the CFTC just trying to hedge their bets for when Democrats come to power ?
It just banned exchanges from proposing new type of sports contracts.
Looks like regulator are tying to slowly choke out sports markets
The CFTC contacted @Novig and @ProphetX and ordered them to take down the following the 1st points in a basketball game?
- Will any NFL end with a final score never seen before?
- Will an MLB game produce a never-before-seen score?
- Who will score the 1st point in a Football game?
They argue that these categories are prone to manipulaton.
If you remember it's the same argument that they used to force Kalshi to ban Sports mention markets
Regulations are dropping at an increasing rate :
- July: CFTC forces Kalshi to ban bets on sport mention.
- September: The CFTC send a warning about "manipulation risks" in mention markets in general
- October (Now): The CFTC bans first goal and scorigami markets
---- next ----
- The CFTC bans mention markets ?
- The CFTC drops sports market entirely (reclassied as gambling) ?
Is the Trump admin starting to turn against prediction markets ? Or is the CFTC just trying to hedge their bets for when Democrats come to power ?
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Internet Child retweeted
🚨 Polymarket just fired it's its CMO @MatthewModabber after he got caught paying influencer to promote FAKE TRADES !
Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him.
Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign.
It found:
- $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real.
- 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings.
- Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning
Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own
But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all.
- > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account.
- anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing.
- he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades
This is a BIG blow for Shayne !
Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket.
Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone.
And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses.
His position has never been weaker.
It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.
Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him.
Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign.
It found:
- $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real.
- 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings.
- Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning
Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own
But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all.
- > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account.
- anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing.
- he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades
This is a BIG blow for Shayne !
Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket.
Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone.
And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses.
His position has never been weaker.
It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.
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🚨 Polymarket just fired it's its CMO @MatthewModabber after he got caught paying influencer to promote FAKE TRADES !
Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him.
Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign.
It found:
- $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real.
- 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings.
- Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning
Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own
But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all.
- > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account.
- anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing.
- he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades
This is a BIG blow for Shayne !
Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket.
Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone.
And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses.
His position has never been weaker.
It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.
Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him.
Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign.
It found:
- $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real.
- 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings.
- Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning
Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own
But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all.
- > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account.
- anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing.
- he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades
This is a BIG blow for Shayne !
Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket.
Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone.
And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses.
His position has never been weaker.
It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.
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Internet Child retweeted
NEW STUDY : Polymarket KOLs are bad traders and you will lose money if you follow them.
We all knew it, but it's nice to finally have proof.
A study by Prediction Market Census tracked 307 Polymarket influencers, their wallets and the call they made on social media.
Here's 1. Their calls are trash.
Researchers matched 162 public KOL trading calls to their earlier trades.
On those exact same bets:
- avg. KOL return: +12.3%
- avg. Follower entering when posted: −2.4%
If you see a KOL posting shilling a trade opportunity, it's already too late and they are using you as exit liquidity.
1. KOLs are WORST traders than average.
> 57.5% of KOL accounts lost money trading.
> 50.5% of non-KOL accounts with similar trading volumes lose money.
So remember. No competent trader is going to give you free alpha.
If they have alpha, they will keep it to themselves.
If they pretend to have alpha, they are farming you for refferal revenue.
We all knew it, but it's nice to finally have proof.
A study by Prediction Market Census tracked 307 Polymarket influencers, their wallets and the call they made on social media.
Here's 1. Their calls are trash.
Researchers matched 162 public KOL trading calls to their earlier trades.
On those exact same bets:
- avg. KOL return: +12.3%
- avg. Follower entering when posted: −2.4%
If you see a KOL posting shilling a trade opportunity, it's already too late and they are using you as exit liquidity.
1. KOLs are WORST traders than average.
> 57.5% of KOL accounts lost money trading.
> 50.5% of non-KOL accounts with similar trading volumes lose money.
So remember. No competent trader is going to give you free alpha.
If they have alpha, they will keep it to themselves.
If they pretend to have alpha, they are farming you for refferal revenue.
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Zelensky did NOT capitulate to Russia !
I'm shorting this fake news. NO Ukraine x Russia ceasefire by March 2027 (+32%) 💸
What Zelensky is doing is just restating the position that he held since 2024 :
> Freeze of the frontline on the current position.
> Diplomacy later
He exprese past :
- November 2024 to Sky News: "I propose freezing the frontline and taking back the occupied territories later through diplomacy."
- September 2025 to Axios: “We are ready to get it back sometime [the occupied territories] in the future in a diplomatic way, not with weapons.”
- December 20, 2025 in Press briefing: “We stay where we are – on the contact line in any region of our state.” talking about as a possible ceasefire agreement.
June 7, 2026 — Sky News: Asked whether he would freeze the front line at its current position: “Yes. It's the quickest way.”
And *every single time*, Putin rejected.
Why would it be different now ?
Russia still think they are winning the war of attrition, Ukraine still believe the opposite.
They will keep fighting it out until there is an undeniable victor.
NO CEASFIRE
I'm shorting this fake news. NO Ukraine x Russia ceasefire by March 2027 (+32%) 💸
What Zelensky is doing is just restating the position that he held since 2024 :
> Freeze of the frontline on the current position.
> Diplomacy later
He exprese past :
- November 2024 to Sky News: "I propose freezing the frontline and taking back the occupied territories later through diplomacy."
- September 2025 to Axios: “We are ready to get it back sometime [the occupied territories] in the future in a diplomatic way, not with weapons.”
- December 20, 2025 in Press briefing: “We stay where we are – on the contact line in any region of our state.” talking about as a possible ceasefire agreement.
June 7, 2026 — Sky News: Asked whether he would freeze the front line at its current position: “Yes. It's the quickest way.”
And *every single time*, Putin rejected.
Why would it be different now ?
Russia still think they are winning the war of attrition, Ukraine still believe the opposite.
They will keep fighting it out until there is an undeniable victor.
NO CEASFIRE
MASSIVE NEWS:
Zelenskyy agrees to take the defeat and the whooping loss of 25% of his country's territory.
Russia won
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I bet on NO Ukraine x Russia ceasefire through @ZEITFinance my vault. Invest here to share the profits
app.zeit.finance/earn/internet-…
app.zeit.finance/earn/internet-…
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Internet Child retweeted
You asked about Smart orders, so here they are 🦎
Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in.
Watch the video, and .co/zIsrGJGjrP
Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in.
Watch the video, and .co/zIsrGJGjrP
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Internet Child retweeted
You guys are crazy. INSANE engagement on this post: tons of DMs, questions, and takes. So let me break it down.
First: I don't have an opinion here. I'm reporting in a way that engages the audience. Successfully.
Personally, I don't have a dog in this fight. Does he fly private? I don't care. It's not my money. He doesn't owe anyone an airdrop. It's a private company, and he answers to his shareholders. Period.
I've also gotten a lot of DMs about a SoHo penthouse declared as an office, PJ flights to a basketball game with a YouTuber, and other things I won't post publicly because I can't verify them, and I don't want to be the source. Shayne made his investors money, right? So what's the problem? Nobody is hurt!
That said, where there's smoke, there's fire. This isn't all a paid campaign.
Now, here's what I find genuinely fascinating: this post is a perfect snapshot of how the X bubble works. The replies fall into a few clear groups:
1. VCs with a bag, defending their bag. That's their incentive, right or wrong. They'd be insane to publicly trash a company they want to take public and cash out of. No hard feelings, they're doing their job. You just need to understand it, my friend.
2. The dickriders. They see VCs commenting, ALSO they're currently raising capital or about to, so they "agree" with the VCs. Subtly, but they do.
That "I'm not kissing the ring, but I'm on your side" energy. If you're reading this: does it work?
3. People I know for a fact work for Polymarket, disclosed or not. They comment nicely because they want their salary. Which is fine. They need to live; they want nice things. It's a mutual deal. That's capitalism.
4. The airdrop farmers from Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, still commenting "gPOLY" and still believing. Poor souls. Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do.
5. The usual crowd pissed at Poly for whatever reason, adding their two cents.
And no, I'm definitely not being paid in cash for this. I'm paid by you, my dear followers: your engagement and your company in this beautiful town square called X (formerly Twitter).
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
First: I don't have an opinion here. I'm reporting in a way that engages the audience. Successfully.
Personally, I don't have a dog in this fight. Does he fly private? I don't care. It's not my money. He doesn't owe anyone an airdrop. It's a private company, and he answers to his shareholders. Period.
I've also gotten a lot of DMs about a SoHo penthouse declared as an office, PJ flights to a basketball game with a YouTuber, and other things I won't post publicly because I can't verify them, and I don't want to be the source. Shayne made his investors money, right? So what's the problem? Nobody is hurt!
That said, where there's smoke, there's fire. This isn't all a paid campaign.
Now, here's what I find genuinely fascinating: this post is a perfect snapshot of how the X bubble works. The replies fall into a few clear groups:
1. VCs with a bag, defending their bag. That's their incentive, right or wrong. They'd be insane to publicly trash a company they want to take public and cash out of. No hard feelings, they're doing their job. You just need to understand it, my friend.
2. The dickriders. They see VCs commenting, ALSO they're currently raising capital or about to, so they "agree" with the VCs. Subtly, but they do.
That "I'm not kissing the ring, but I'm on your side" energy. If you're reading this: does it work?
3. People I know for a fact work for Polymarket, disclosed or not. They comment nicely because they want their salary. Which is fine. They need to live; they want nice things. It's a mutual deal. That's capitalism.
4. The airdrop farmers from Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, still commenting "gPOLY" and still believing. Poor souls. Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do.
5. The usual crowd pissed at Poly for whatever reason, adding their two cents.
And no, I'm definitely not being paid in cash for this. I'm paid by you, my dear followers: your engagement and your company in this beautiful town square called X (formerly Twitter).
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
🚨 BREAKING : Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan caught using COMPANY MONEY for Private Jets flights.
Peter Thiel caught him red-handed using his investment money as a personal wallet.
Founders Fund, Peter Thiel's fund, discovered that Shayne had charged the following as company et flights
- apartment rent
- designer clothes
They immediately demanded a FULL REFUND
Shayne was forced to reimburse the money.
ICE and Founders Fund then teamed up to push for stronger financial controls
They were the one that forced Shayne to appoint a COO.
You remember Shayne's ChatGPT written tweet gleefully announcing the hiring of Collin McKinney Hill as COO ?
I called it extremely suspicious at the time. Turns out i was right, investors basically forced Shayne to hire him as a soft coup.
I don't know how long Shayne can stay in place when their main investors have lost confidence.
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Internet Child retweeted
Founders Fund actually made sure Shayne can't be fired, according to Bloomberg.
Best ad for founders to take money from FF.
Best ad for founders to take money from FF.
Spent 30 minutes in line at Dominique Ansel Bakery in Soho today, running a little Polymarket CEO experiment in my head.
If Shayne is really out in the next couple of months. Who is gonna run Polymarket?
Why should he be out, you say? The setup is pure cinema:
-- Polymarket is with outages, angry customers, lawsuits, and a fresh CFTC investigation.
-- The NFA reportedly threatened to drop them as a client over record-keeping
-- Raising at a $21B valuation while weighing an IPO against a token.
Best case, Shayne goes exec chair and hands an operator the keys.
If I had a board seat, here's who I'd call:
1) @AsiffHirji
- Already did this exact job: Coinbase president/COO, scaled it past $1B in revenue.
- Ameritrade and HP restructuring on the résumé.
- Catch: never the top CEO, no CFTC reps.
2) Heath Tarbert.
- Ex-CFTC chair, ex-Citadel Securities CLO, now Circle president (aka the USDC guy).
- Best answer to the regulator problem.
- Catch: not a product operator, and Circle's CFO is leaving at year-end, so good luck prying him loose.
3) Chris Concannon
- Took Bats public, sold it to Cboe.
- Runs MarketAxess, which ICE agreed to buy. Basically ICE's dream pick.
- Catch: zero crypto
If it ever happened:
• Hirji = Polymarket grows up without losing the plot
• Tarbert = the CFTC problem gets a lot quieter
• Concannon = welcome to the ICE Cinematic Universe
Soho bakery lines remain undefeated.
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Internet Child retweeted
LMAO Kalshi just signed a deal with a fake tribal chief !
They tried to sign with a Native American tribe to launch a Kalshi partnered prediction market.
Except the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR.
Kalshi has been trying to court the support of Native tribes with the tribes launch their own branded prediction market apps.
- Kalshi provides the exchange, liquidity and infrastructure.
- Tribes receive a percentage of trading fees.
They already signed 5 tribes and thought they had just signed a 6th when they struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, the chief of the Alabama-Quassarte tribe.
But the next day, Samuel Marshall, claiming to be the actual Chief denounced the deal saying :
- His leadership NEVER approved the deal.
- He only discovered it through a CNN report.
- The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe.
Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power.
Samuel Marshall Jr. (real) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions.
Now this dispute turns into a legal conflict :
> The legitimist faction behind Samuel Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief.
> The impostor faction, supported by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief.
Kalshi tried cynically buy the support of Native Americans tribes in their upcoming supreme court battle for the legality of prediction markets.
Now they are looking forward to a long legal process trying to adjudicate a Triblal succession dispute.
They tried to sign with a Native American tribe to launch a Kalshi partnered prediction market.
Except the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR.
Kalshi has been trying to court the support of Native tribes with the tribes launch their own branded prediction market apps.
- Kalshi provides the exchange, liquidity and infrastructure.
- Tribes receive a percentage of trading fees.
They already signed 5 tribes and thought they had just signed a 6th when they struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, the chief of the Alabama-Quassarte tribe.
But the next day, Samuel Marshall, claiming to be the actual Chief denounced the deal saying :
- His leadership NEVER approved the deal.
- He only discovered it through a CNN report.
- The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe.
Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power.
Samuel Marshall Jr. (real) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions.
Now this dispute turns into a legal conflict :
> The legitimist faction behind Samuel Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief.
> The impostor faction, supported by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief.
Kalshi tried cynically buy the support of Native Americans tribes in their upcoming supreme court battle for the legality of prediction markets.
Now they are looking forward to a long legal process trying to adjudicate a Triblal succession dispute.
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LMAO Kalshi just signed a deal with a fake tribal chief !
They tried to sign with a Native American tribe to launch a Kalshi partnered prediction market.
Except the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR.
Kalshi has been trying to court the support of Native tribes with the tribes launch their own branded prediction market apps.
- Kalshi provides the exchange, liquidity and infrastructure.
- Tribes receive a percentage of trading fees.
They already signed 5 tribes and thought they had just signed a 6th when they struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, the chief of the Alabama-Quassarte tribe.
But the next day, Samuel Marshall, claiming to be the actual Chief denounced the deal saying :
- His leadership NEVER approved the deal.
- He only discovered it through a CNN report.
- The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe.
Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power.
Samuel Marshall Jr. (real) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions.
Now this dispute turns into a legal conflict :
> The legitimist faction behind Samuel Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief.
> The impostor faction, supported by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief.
Kalshi tried cynically buy the support of Native Americans tribes in their upcoming supreme court battle for the legality of prediction markets.
Now they are looking forward to a long legal process trying to adjudicate a Triblal succession dispute.
They tried to sign with a Native American tribe to launch a Kalshi partnered prediction market.
Except the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR.
Kalshi has been trying to court the support of Native tribes with the tribes launch their own branded prediction market apps.
- Kalshi provides the exchange, liquidity and infrastructure.
- Tribes receive a percentage of trading fees.
They already signed 5 tribes and thought they had just signed a 6th when they struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, the chief of the Alabama-Quassarte tribe.
But the next day, Samuel Marshall, claiming to be the actual Chief denounced the deal saying :
- His leadership NEVER approved the deal.
- He only discovered it through a CNN report.
- The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe.
Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power.
Samuel Marshall Jr. (real) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions.
Now this dispute turns into a legal conflict :
> The legitimist faction behind Samuel Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief.
> The impostor faction, supported by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief.
Kalshi tried cynically buy the support of Native Americans tribes in their upcoming supreme court battle for the legality of prediction markets.
Now they are looking forward to a long legal process trying to adjudicate a Triblal succession dispute.
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Internet Child retweeted
Robinhood allegedly preparing a NINE-FIGURE grant program for Robinhood Chain.
That's >$100M for builders.
Most of it likely going to Prediction Markets.
that's *at least* 100x the previous $1M grant program they announced in February.
This will make RobinHood chain's acttial hype and grant program made growth skyrocket when they launched the chain in July.
in only 2 months from launch RobinHood achieved:
- $53.3B in monthly DEX volume
- 10.8M daily transactions peak
- Over $1B in stablecoin supply
But since mid September, the momentum started fading :
- Daily transactions down 42%
- Active addresses down 31%
- Bridge TVL down from $855M in September to $648M now.
I see this play as a massive cash injection by Robinhood to try and regain their early momentum
If we go by the previous program the money will be distributed to teams building :
- Tokenized asset infrastructure
- AI-powered financial services
- Credit and lending protocols
- *Prediction market infrastructure*
This is an amazing opportunity for builders in the space.
Because let's be real, Polymarket/Kalshi never really went out of their ways to reward builders.
No real grants. No promotion. No technical support.
So If you are a Prediction Market builder I strongly recommend you look into the incoming RobinHood grant program.
the future of Prediction Markets might be on RobinHood chain.
That's >$100M for builders.
Most of it likely going to Prediction Markets.
that's *at least* 100x the previous $1M grant program they announced in February.
This will make RobinHood chain's acttial hype and grant program made growth skyrocket when they launched the chain in July.
in only 2 months from launch RobinHood achieved:
- $53.3B in monthly DEX volume
- 10.8M daily transactions peak
- Over $1B in stablecoin supply
But since mid September, the momentum started fading :
- Daily transactions down 42%
- Active addresses down 31%
- Bridge TVL down from $855M in September to $648M now.
I see this play as a massive cash injection by Robinhood to try and regain their early momentum
If we go by the previous program the money will be distributed to teams building :
- Tokenized asset infrastructure
- AI-powered financial services
- Credit and lending protocols
- *Prediction market infrastructure*
This is an amazing opportunity for builders in the space.
Because let's be real, Polymarket/Kalshi never really went out of their ways to reward builders.
No real grants. No promotion. No technical support.
So If you are a Prediction Market builder I strongly recommend you look into the incoming RobinHood grant program.
the future of Prediction Markets might be on RobinHood chain.
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Internet Child retweeted
Haseeb is NOT telling you the full truth!
Here’s what actually happened behind closed doors with Shayne, Tarek, Peter Thiel, Mustafa, ICE, and one key player Bloomberg conveniently left out (you already know who).
Here’s what actually happened behind closed doors with Shayne, Tarek, Peter Thiel, Mustafa, ICE, and one key player Bloomberg conveniently left out (you already know who).
This is total nonsense.
We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece.
Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living he company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together.
After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception.
But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else.
It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal.
Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him.
Enough of this stupid FUD.
The end.
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