Tesla value - leader in future automated labor, transport.
Vehicle History: Tesla led 3/Y;
China great leap forward, overproduce;
Tesla devise tech response.
Now: Tesla tech led great leap forward from 2 mil to 5 mil veh in 5 years. 2030 - $200b high margin veh hardware revenue: Semi, a Class7 chassis(?), Roadster (base vers with 1200 cells (1000V - 3x400 cell module better) is new Ferrari), new 3/Y/CT models,
CC based massmarket 5dr(soon?)
Tech: unboxed, gigacast, RIM in four colours, electric drive brake steer, cheap no rare earth motors, new indirect thermal mgt, FWD (for CC based five door?), Gen 3 cells, CC 528 cell pack of 50 kWh usable in 4x12.5 kWh (22S,6P) 92V modules each weigh 50 kg,
LFP packs where tariffs allow,
FSD V15 (AI5/AI6).
@Tesla @TeslaSI @larsmoravy @woodhaus2 @garyblack00 @ARKInvest @TashaARK @robmaurer @TeslaBoomerMama @teslaownersSV
@JoeTegtmeyer
@DillonLoomis
Vehicle History: Tesla led 3/Y;
China great leap forward, overproduce;
Tesla devise tech response.
Now: Tesla tech led great leap forward from 2 mil to 5 mil veh in 5 years. 2030 - $200b high margin veh hardware revenue: Semi, a Class7 chassis(?), Roadster (base vers with 1200 cells (1000V - 3x400 cell module better) is new Ferrari), new 3/Y/CT models,
CC based massmarket 5dr(soon?)
Tech: unboxed, gigacast, RIM in four colours, electric drive brake steer, cheap no rare earth motors, new indirect thermal mgt, FWD (for CC based five door?), Gen 3 cells, CC 528 cell pack of 50 kWh usable in 4x12.5 kWh (22S,6P) 92V modules each weigh 50 kg,
LFP packs where tariffs allow,
FSD V15 (AI5/AI6).
@Tesla @TeslaSI @larsmoravy @woodhaus2 @garyblack00 @ARKInvest @TashaARK @robmaurer @TeslaBoomerMama @teslaownersSV
@JoeTegtmeyer
@DillonLoomis
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CyberTruck with reaction injection moulded plastic panels. Apparently most CyberTrucks don't go off road or tow.
@Tesla @larsmoravy @woodhaus2 @elonmusk @SawyerMerritt @DillonLoomis @cb_doge @farzyness @LimitingThe @JoeTegtmeyer
Out of Spec reviews says the base CyberTruck is great value at $70k.
Tesla should produce a version of the Cybertruck with exterior panels made with reaction injection moulded plastic panels. The extra investment will be very small. The panels can come in different colours and be more rounded.
@woodhaus2 can surely produce an exterior for Cybertruck that will bring in hundreds of thousands of customers without changing the basic truck.
@Tesla @larsmoravy @woodhaus2 @elonmusk @SawyerMerritt @DillonLoomis @cb_doge @farzyness @LimitingThe @JoeTegtmeyer
Out of Spec reviews says the base CyberTruck is great value at $70k.
Tesla should produce a version of the Cybertruck with exterior panels made with reaction injection moulded plastic panels. The extra investment will be very small. The panels can come in different colours and be more rounded.
@woodhaus2 can surely produce an exterior for Cybertruck that will bring in hundreds of thousands of customers without changing the basic truck.
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Roadster launch at Austin likely pushed to August due to rains and resultant delays to road access to the AI chip development building site and the Optimus factory under construction.
Rains also delayed clearing of construction support facilities on the chip development site. Tesla would wish a Chip building site outline and the Optimus building be visible to VIPs arriving for roadster launch.
The test track on which to demonstrate the Roadster is not yet finished.
Roadster does little for the valuation.
@SawyerMerritt @JoeTegtmeyer @DillonLoomis @TeslaBoomerMama
Rains also delayed clearing of construction support facilities on the chip development site. Tesla would wish a Chip building site outline and the Optimus building be visible to VIPs arriving for roadster launch.
The test track on which to demonstrate the Roadster is not yet finished.
Roadster does little for the valuation.
@SawyerMerritt @JoeTegtmeyer @DillonLoomis @TeslaBoomerMama
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Strait of Hormuz route more easily secured against drones.
Even when peace restored, Gulf states will need shipping channels less exposed to risk in the Strait of Hormuz.
Depending on channel depth and dredging required, at Oman's Musandam Peninsula, at a location Google Earth has marked 'Maksar', cut a channel 300 metres long with a 200 metre wide navigable path - 4 million cubic metres plus any under sea level channel. Later, cut a similar channel 900 metres long at a location Google Earth has a name 'Two Seas Lanacs' - 20 million cubic metres.
Taking back the three islands from Iran, Gulf states in partnership with Oman can establish an air, sea and undersea drone defence screen against Iranian drones.
The aim being to raise the effort required by Iran to close the strait. In particular, want to prevent a local commander or rogue soldiers trying to fly drones into ships, or launch drone torpedoes or mines.
@UAEGovernmentN1
Even when peace restored, Gulf states will need shipping channels less exposed to risk in the Strait of Hormuz.
Depending on channel depth and dredging required, at Oman's Musandam Peninsula, at a location Google Earth has marked 'Maksar', cut a channel 300 metres long with a 200 metre wide navigable path - 4 million cubic metres plus any under sea level channel. Later, cut a similar channel 900 metres long at a location Google Earth has a name 'Two Seas Lanacs' - 20 million cubic metres.
Taking back the three islands from Iran, Gulf states in partnership with Oman can establish an air, sea and undersea drone defence screen against Iranian drones.
The aim being to raise the effort required by Iran to close the strait. In particular, want to prevent a local commander or rogue soldiers trying to fly drones into ships, or launch drone torpedoes or mines.
@UAEGovernmentN1
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Semi LR is ~10.5T, so possibly 5.7T without the battery packs.
Semi Std is <9.07T with 2 instead of 3 battery packs, shorter frame and no fairing on top. It is >1361kg lighter than the LR.
Semi LR can haul 26.8T trailer
Semi Std can haul 28.1T trailer
Semi Std is <9.07T with 2 instead of 3 battery packs, shorter frame and no fairing on top. It is >1361kg lighter than the LR.
Semi LR can haul 26.8T trailer
Semi Std can haul 28.1T trailer
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Jay Leno YT video ride - Semi battery architecture specs surmised from information given by Dan.
--- It would be great to see the actual architecture specs.
--- Customers must be asking and are likely telling your competitors in discussions about capabilities.
@danWpriestley @larsmoravy
@SawyerMerritt @farzyness
@DillonLoomis @JoeTegtmeyer
--- Semi LR - 3 packs
--- Semi Std - 2 packs, shorter prime mover
--- Million mile life in 500 mile journeys - 2,000 cycles when truck used daily
--- Packs in parallel for similar performance characteristics
--- 2170 NMC cells - what cell energy capacity is assumed to inform usable range over pack life? 16 to 18.5 Wh possible. 17.0??
--- Margin above usable per pack - 10kWh?
--- 1.7kWh/mile for 500 miles means 3 packs can provide a usable 850 kWh - 283.33 kWh per pack.
--- Minimum pack 293.33 kWh @ 17.0Wh/cell.
Battery electrical architecture.
--- If 240 cells (1000Vmax) in series, 72 in parallel (240S,72P=17280 cells)
--- If 250 cells (1040Vmax) in series (250S, 69P = 17250 cells).
--- I surmise the parallel direction is across the truck.
--- The pack will have layers (possibly trays for repairs/recycling).
--- Five layers implies 50 cells in series in each layer - 250S,69P
--- Six layers implies 40 cells in series in each layer - 240S,72P
--- Eight layers implies 30 cells in series in each layer - 240S,72P
--- The five layer pack gives the biggest shortening of Semi for the standard range version. It also has the lowest centre of gravity.
--- I surmise a six layer pack. I would love to know the Tesla choice.
--- pack weight - 1.6 tonnes?
--- 2 packs - 3.2 tonnes?
--- 3 packs - 4.8 tonnes?
--- Semi LR prime mover - 13 tonnes
--- It would be great to see the actual architecture specs.
--- Customers must be asking and are likely telling your competitors in discussions about capabilities.
@danWpriestley @larsmoravy
@SawyerMerritt @farzyness
@DillonLoomis @JoeTegtmeyer
--- Semi LR - 3 packs
--- Semi Std - 2 packs, shorter prime mover
--- Million mile life in 500 mile journeys - 2,000 cycles when truck used daily
--- Packs in parallel for similar performance characteristics
--- 2170 NMC cells - what cell energy capacity is assumed to inform usable range over pack life? 16 to 18.5 Wh possible. 17.0??
--- Margin above usable per pack - 10kWh?
--- 1.7kWh/mile for 500 miles means 3 packs can provide a usable 850 kWh - 283.33 kWh per pack.
--- Minimum pack 293.33 kWh @ 17.0Wh/cell.
Battery electrical architecture.
--- If 240 cells (1000Vmax) in series, 72 in parallel (240S,72P=17280 cells)
--- If 250 cells (1040Vmax) in series (250S, 69P = 17250 cells).
--- I surmise the parallel direction is across the truck.
--- The pack will have layers (possibly trays for repairs/recycling).
--- Five layers implies 50 cells in series in each layer - 250S,69P
--- Six layers implies 40 cells in series in each layer - 240S,72P
--- Eight layers implies 30 cells in series in each layer - 240S,72P
--- The five layer pack gives the biggest shortening of Semi for the standard range version. It also has the lowest centre of gravity.
--- I surmise a six layer pack. I would love to know the Tesla choice.
--- pack weight - 1.6 tonnes?
--- 2 packs - 3.2 tonnes?
--- 3 packs - 4.8 tonnes?
--- Semi LR prime mover - 13 tonnes
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@MarcusHouse @JoeTegtmeyer @RGVaerialphotos @NASASpaceflight
Mass fractions and thrust for booster/starship not adding up for V4 and effective payload versions.
Analysis assumes Falcon 9 is efficient at mass to LEO for a reusable booster.
Falcon 9 max mass at ignition 557.7 Tonnes
stage 1 - 438.2 T, 78.5% of mass at ignition
stage 2 - 96.7 T, 17.5%
Payload to LEO - 22.8 T, 4%
stage 2 + PL - 119.5 T mass at ignition
Stage 1 thrust 776 T - 1.39 by mass at ignition (T/W ratio)
Stage 2 thrust 100 T force -
Proportion of work done by each stage of 2 stage rockets can vary considerably.
For Booster/Starship, ship does more work.
For 10,000 tonne thrust version, mass fractions appear to be:
10,000 T force/1.4 = 7143 T mass at ignition
7143x0.04 = 285.7 T Pay load
7143x0.26 = 1857.2 T Ship wet
7143x0.015= 107 T Ship dry
7143x0.245= 1750 T Ship fuel
7143x0.30 = 2143 T Ship loaded
7143x0.70 = 5000 T Booster wet (half launch thrust)
7143x0.035= 250 T Booster dry
7143x0.665= 4750 T Booster fuel
Assumed fuel ratio is still 78% O2, 22% CH4
Mass fractions and thrust for booster/starship not adding up for V4 and effective payload versions.
Analysis assumes Falcon 9 is efficient at mass to LEO for a reusable booster.
Falcon 9 max mass at ignition 557.7 Tonnes
stage 1 - 438.2 T, 78.5% of mass at ignition
stage 2 - 96.7 T, 17.5%
Payload to LEO - 22.8 T, 4%
stage 2 + PL - 119.5 T mass at ignition
Stage 1 thrust 776 T - 1.39 by mass at ignition (T/W ratio)
Stage 2 thrust 100 T force -
Proportion of work done by each stage of 2 stage rockets can vary considerably.
For Booster/Starship, ship does more work.
For 10,000 tonne thrust version, mass fractions appear to be:
10,000 T force/1.4 = 7143 T mass at ignition
7143x0.04 = 285.7 T Pay load
7143x0.26 = 1857.2 T Ship wet
7143x0.015= 107 T Ship dry
7143x0.245= 1750 T Ship fuel
7143x0.30 = 2143 T Ship loaded
7143x0.70 = 5000 T Booster wet (half launch thrust)
7143x0.035= 250 T Booster dry
7143x0.665= 4750 T Booster fuel
Assumed fuel ratio is still 78% O2, 22% CH4
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T/W for Falcon 9 stage 2 apparently = 0.837
T/W for 10,000 tonne force booster/ship is likely 1.4 based on Falcon 9.
T/W for Starship (second stage) = 1.263 appears available (for a ship + PL of mass 2143 T).
T/W for 10,000 tonne force booster/ship is likely 1.4 based on Falcon 9.
T/W for Starship (second stage) = 1.263 appears available (for a ship + PL of mass 2143 T).
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@DJSnM see above and other linked text.
You are well placed to produce your own numbers.
You are well placed to produce your own numbers.
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@DJSnM see above mass and thrust analysis for Falcon 9 and Booster/Starship.
First and second stage ratios are quite different due to Falcon second stage being expendable???
We should expect maximum mass at launch and max mass to LEO should have a similar ratio??
First and second stage ratios are quite different due to Falcon second stage being expendable???
We should expect maximum mass at launch and max mass to LEO should have a similar ratio??
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Tesla now in four markets:
-- Transport services (vehicles various - car, van, truck, Semi, classes 4-7 truck(?), bus(?) - autom/non autom)
-- Electricity services (solar, batteries, electricity)
-- Labor services (Optimus)
-- Knowledge services (AI - if visual only at present)
@garybl00 @SawyerMerritt @dillonloomis @robmaurer @JoeTegtmeyer @Limitin @TheEconomist @elonmusk @Tesla
-- Transport services (vehicles various - car, van, truck, Semi, classes 4-7 truck(?), bus(?) - autom/non autom)
-- Electricity services (solar, batteries, electricity)
-- Labor services (Optimus)
-- Knowledge services (AI - if visual only at present)
@garybl00 @SawyerMerritt @dillonloomis @robmaurer @JoeTegtmeyer @Limitin @TheEconomist @elonmusk @Tesla
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Peter Egan retweeted
Tesla now in four markets:
-- Transport services (vehicles various - car, van, truck, Semi, classes 4-7 truck(?), bus(?) - autom/non autom)
-- Electricity services (solar, batteries, electricity)
-- Labor services (Optimus)
-- Knowledge services (AI - if visual only at present)
@garybl00 @SawyerMerritt @dillonloomis @robmaurer @JoeTegtmeyer @Limitin @TheEconomist @elonmusk @Tesla
-- Transport services (vehicles various - car, van, truck, Semi, classes 4-7 truck(?), bus(?) - autom/non autom)
-- Electricity services (solar, batteries, electricity)
-- Labor services (Optimus)
-- Knowledge services (AI - if visual only at present)
@garybl00 @SawyerMerritt @dillonloomis @robmaurer @JoeTegtmeyer @Limitin @TheEconomist @elonmusk @Tesla
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Tesla Optimus bot has a metric body mass index of 19.00 when converting 5' 8" & 125 lb to metric.
Top endurance athlete material. But bot will need far more battery mass for many applications.
@elonmusk @Tesla @bscholl @cb_doge @esherifftv @JoeTegtmeyer @dillonloomis @garyblack00 @SawyerMerritt @SpaceX
Top endurance athlete material. But bot will need far more battery mass for many applications.
@elonmusk @Tesla @bscholl @cb_doge @esherifftv @JoeTegtmeyer @dillonloomis @garyblack00 @SawyerMerritt @SpaceX
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China developing Elon Musk Hyperloop 1000 kmh Maglev train in a vacuum tube. Also want to develop 5000 kmh version. Beijing-Shanghai- Guangzhou??
@bscholl @elonmusk @dillonloomis @JoeTegtmeyer @realDonaldTrump
Good for bad winter climates, but air travel far cheaper for 1000 frastructure required.
Current Shanghai Maglev (450 kmh, 125 m/s) takes about 15 km to reach that speed, so speed truncated to 431kmh as line only 31 km long.
450 kmh EMS Maglev likely great for the east coast of Australia as our major cites Adelaide-Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane are 700 km to 800 km with little in between.
@bscholl @elonmusk @dillonloomis @JoeTegtmeyer @realDonaldTrump
Good for bad winter climates, but air travel far cheaper for 1000 frastructure required.
Current Shanghai Maglev (450 kmh, 125 m/s) takes about 15 km to reach that speed, so speed truncated to 431kmh as line only 31 km long.
450 kmh EMS Maglev likely great for the east coast of Australia as our major cites Adelaide-Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane are 700 km to 800 km with little in between.
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