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Don’t chase what was. Own what’s next. Big Ideas 2026.
Download now: ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2026
Download now: ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2026
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7% to 8% real gross domestic product growth over the next five years. That's the number ARK has been using, and @CathieDWood says that as she extends the forecast, it goes higher. She makes the case on the Q3 Fund mARKet Update.
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1/ There has never been a better time in history to be an entrepreneur. As AI lowers the cost of building a business, more people can bring their ideas to market. Shopify, an entrepreneurship company at its core, is giving founders the tools to make that possible.
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ARK Invest retweeted
The a16z name change isn’t a surprise. It’s an honest read of where crypto venture already is and where it needs to go.
Look at the market today:
$3T industry with BTC being 2/3 of that
$300B in stablecoins
$40B in RWAs
2-3 L1s worth over $100B
10-20 investable tokens in the 5B-20B range
That market can’t produce outcomes big enough for a fund the size of a16z. It hasn’t for years.
Crypto venture quietly became frontier venture over the last 1-2 years. If anything, I’m surprised it took this long.
Today, 90% of conversations in crypto venture aren’t about building a better product for existing crypto users. That market isn’t big enough. Nobody wants to fund another prop AMM, another structured products protocol, or another onchain options order book.
The real question now: how does this industry grow 10-100x ?
The answer is always the same. Crypto has to meet and power other frontier markets. Prediction markets. AI. Fintech. Agentic payments. Crypto-enabled AI networks.
This is a natural evolution, and I think this new fund will be FAR more beneficial to crypto’s growth than the old model.
The marginal value of a16z funding the next perps protocol is zero. The intersections are where the bigger markets and bigger companies get built, and they’re the best people to do it. This will open up a lot of opportunities for "crypto"
Look at the market today:
$3T industry with BTC being 2/3 of that
$300B in stablecoins
$40B in RWAs
2-3 L1s worth over $100B
10-20 investable tokens in the 5B-20B range
That market can’t produce outcomes big enough for a fund the size of a16z. It hasn’t for years.
Crypto venture quietly became frontier venture over the last 1-2 years. If anything, I’m surprised it took this long.
Today, 90% of conversations in crypto venture aren’t about building a better product for existing crypto users. That market isn’t big enough. Nobody wants to fund another prop AMM, another structured products protocol, or another onchain options order book.
The real question now: how does this industry grow 10-100x ?
The answer is always the same. Crypto has to meet and power other frontier markets. Prediction markets. AI. Fintech. Agentic payments. Crypto-enabled AI networks.
This is a natural evolution, and I think this new fund will be FAR more beneficial to crypto’s growth than the old model.
The marginal value of a16z funding the next perps protocol is zero. The intersections are where the bigger markets and bigger companies get built, and they’re the best people to do it. This will open up a lot of opportunities for "crypto"
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We ran the model. Our prediction for Tesla’s share price in 2031 is... live now.
Read here: ark-invest.com/articles/valua…
Read here: ark-invest.com/articles/valua…
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For years, hyperscalers were cash fortresses. They threw off so much cash they never had to touch the debt markets.
They are tapping them now, and their credit default swaps are deteriorating. Investment grade is ticking up. High yield is ticking up more.
Cathie Wood is not calling this systemic. Bank credit default swaps are still near lows, and nothing is feeding back into the banking system. But she calls it an unusual moment, and it is the chart she chose to end the episode on.
When the companies that never needed debt start borrowing, it is worth asking what changed.
More in the October In The Know with @CathieDWood.
They are tapping them now, and their credit default swaps are deteriorating. Investment grade is ticking up. High yield is ticking up more.
Cathie Wood is not calling this systemic. Bank credit default swaps are still near lows, and nothing is feeding back into the banking system. But she calls it an unusual moment, and it is the chart she chose to end the episode on.
When the companies that never needed debt start borrowing, it is worth asking what changed.
More in the October In The Know with @CathieDWood.
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ARK Invest retweeted
SpaceX and Tesla say Terafab is built for their own needs. Do you think it could supply outside customers?
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ARK Invest retweeted
@CathieDWood used the Q3 2026 Fund mARKet Update to call the recent pullback a healthy correction and to explain why she believes inflation could keep falling, possibly below zero.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is at 3.4% year over year, down from 3.7% after a downward revision. Cathie Wood believes Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh means business and that productivity gains, which she says are beginning to take off, could help get inflation there. She also pointed to a renewed shift toward electric vehicles: 57% of global oil consumption goes to transportation, and she thinks that demand could migrate to the grid over time. ARK's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate for the next five years is 7% to 8%, and she believes more research is pushing it higher.
Cathie also addressed the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)'s performance and where it ranks in its Morningstar category. The five-year window is the outlier, and it begins after ARKK's 360% run from the COVID low to February 2021.
@TashaARK covered Starship Flight 14, the first Starship mission to deploy a commercial payload, and why catching the ship and booster is the next milestone for reusability. She also weighed in on whether Terafab could ever supply customers beyond Tesla and SpaceX.
@LorenzoARK explained what tokenization means for the ARK Venture Fund: investors can now subscribe and redeem on the Ethereum blockchain through Securitize, with the same rights as the standard version.
@GrousARK walked through why ARK added Kalshi to 3 ARK ETFs, joining OpenAI as private company exposure. Kalshi is also held in the ARK Venture Fund.
@downingARK took on Anthropic's reported $2 trillion initial public offering (IPO) target.
@Ovid_ARK covered the catalysts for biotech heading into year-end: 12-month data for CRISPR Therapeutics' CTX310, 13-week data for Absci's ABS-201, and Intellia's March 2027 Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decision date.
Watch the Q3 2026 Fund mARKet Update for the full conversation. ⬇️
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is at 3.4% year over year, down from 3.7% after a downward revision. Cathie Wood believes Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh means business and that productivity gains, which she says are beginning to take off, could help get inflation there. She also pointed to a renewed shift toward electric vehicles: 57% of global oil consumption goes to transportation, and she thinks that demand could migrate to the grid over time. ARK's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate for the next five years is 7% to 8%, and she believes more research is pushing it higher.
Cathie also addressed the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)'s performance and where it ranks in its Morningstar category. The five-year window is the outlier, and it begins after ARKK's 360% run from the COVID low to February 2021.
@TashaARK covered Starship Flight 14, the first Starship mission to deploy a commercial payload, and why catching the ship and booster is the next milestone for reusability. She also weighed in on whether Terafab could ever supply customers beyond Tesla and SpaceX.
@LorenzoARK explained what tokenization means for the ARK Venture Fund: investors can now subscribe and redeem on the Ethereum blockchain through Securitize, with the same rights as the standard version.
@GrousARK walked through why ARK added Kalshi to 3 ARK ETFs, joining OpenAI as private company exposure. Kalshi is also held in the ARK Venture Fund.
@downingARK took on Anthropic's reported $2 trillion initial public offering (IPO) target.
@Ovid_ARK covered the catalysts for biotech heading into year-end: 12-month data for CRISPR Therapeutics' CTX310, 13-week data for Absci's ABS-201, and Intellia's March 2027 Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decision date.
Watch the Q3 2026 Fund mARKet Update for the full conversation. ⬇️
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ARK Invest retweeted
Join ARK, @mach33 and special guests Monday at 4 PM ET for a live discussion about SpaceX and Tesla earnings and news!
x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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ARK Invest retweeted
This is happening. This coming Monday, 4pm.
Link: x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
If you think you should be talking for a segment and not just listening, comment or dm and we can see if it makes sense.
Link: x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
If you think you should be talking for a segment and not just listening, comment or dm and we can see if it makes sense.
Should @aaronburnett and I do a post spacex earnings call call with a couple sell side analysts so we can go into why they are asking what they are asking, how they are modeling/thinking about what's said/what other analysts are thinking etc?
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ARK Invest retweeted
Always good to be a fly on the wall when @wintonARK and @aaronburnett start talking space
Join ARK, @mach33 and special guests Monday at 4 PM ET for a live discussion about SpaceX and Tesla earnings and news!
x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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Join ARK, @mach33 and special guests Monday at 4 PM ET for a live discussion about SpaceX and Tesla earnings and news!
x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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"All hell broke loose from a monetary point of view.” @CathieDWood on the year the US closed the gold window, and why she believes the last 50 years of interest rates were the anomaly rather than today.
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ARK Invest retweeted
@RecursionPharma ($RXRX) had a good week: Data, Deal, and a Development candidate optioned by @sanofi
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10 million people set up Muse personal agents in just six weeks.
On $META's earnings call yesterday, we learned that ~25% of users in the US and Canada use Muse daily. Shopping is the most common use case, with more than a quarter of active users shopping through Muse and average 0.
As consumers delegate more shopping to personal agents, commerce could become a major revenue engine for these platforms as they take a share of the purchases they facilitate.
Our research suggests agents could mediate over ~$8 trillion in online purchases by 2030.
This is just the start.
On $META's earnings call yesterday, we learned that ~25% of users in the US and Canada use Muse daily. Shopping is the most common use case, with more than a quarter of active users shopping through Muse and average 0.
As consumers delegate more shopping to personal agents, commerce could become a major revenue engine for these platforms as they take a share of the purchases they facilitate.
Our research suggests agents could mediate over ~$8 trillion in online purchases by 2030.
This is just the start.
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ARK Invest retweeted
Meta Q3:
Ad impressions +10% YoY (down from +14%)
Average price per ad +14% (up from +12%)
Together they drove 26% ad revenue growth.
Meta says its AI investments are “already delivering substantial incremental advertising revenue” through better recommendations and more
$META
Ad impressions +10% YoY (down from +14%)
Average price per ad +14% (up from +12%)
Together they drove 26% ad revenue growth.
Meta says its AI investments are “already delivering substantial incremental advertising revenue” through better recommendations and more
$META
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Did SpaceX Leak A Tesla Merger?
@wintonARK and @skorusARK discuss the Roadster event and what a potential merger would mean on The Brainstorm.
@wintonARK and @skorusARK discuss the Roadster event and what a potential merger would mean on The Brainstorm.
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ARK Invest retweeted
What if volatility was something you got paid for instead of something you sold into? President and Chief Operating Officer Tom Staudt explains on @traderTVLIVE how $ARKY’s autocallable note structure seeks to generate income in today’s market.
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Why did Tesla really unveil the Roadster? @wintonARK was there and has a theory. Hear it on the new The Brainstorm.
ark-invest.com/podcast/the-br…
ark-invest.com/podcast/the-br…
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ARK Invest retweeted
on the prospective spaceXSI x Tesla:
Assessment of the fair merger premium/discount depends heavily upon time horizon.
Assessment of the fair merger premium/discount depends heavily upon time horizon.
on spaceX vs Tesla
very crudely:
robotaxi is a bigger opportunity than starlink
but orbital compute is a *much* bigger opportunity than robotaxi
and optimus requires more baking time than orbital compute
and Optimus's success is predicated on access to gobsmacking amounts of superintelligence
On our modeling, compared against the no merger case, even if merged at the current share price ratio Tesla shareholders would be ~1.6x better off in 2031 while SpaceX shareholders would be ~2x better off.
On a longer timeframe (2036) Tesla shareholders would be ~5x better off having merged whereas SpaceX shareholders should be more indifferent ~1.3x better off.
So the fair premium depends heavily on your timeframe. On longer time horizons SpaceX shareholders should be asking for a discount. On shorter time horizons Tesla shareholders should be asking for a premium.
But everyone is better off with a merged entity.
A 30% premium paid on Tesla's share price to day would effectively split the difference on the 2031 time frame; Tesla acquired at a 50% discount would equilibreate return differentials on the 2036 time horizon.
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