Pinned Tweet
DATA IS EVERYTHING.
This is true. But it ain't that easy my friend.
New post: the Economics of Metrology
Generating VALUABLE data (for training) isn't trivial. I've struggled and continue to struggle with it. But we have to chew the fat and wrestle with the problem until we're making enough progress fast enough.
It's long. It's dense. It's got graphs. It's got memes.
Link below.
👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇
This is true. But it ain't that easy my friend.
New post: the Economics of Metrology
Generating VALUABLE data (for training) isn't trivial. I've struggled and continue to struggle with it. But we have to chew the fat and wrestle with the problem until we're making enough progress fast enough.
It's long. It's dense. It's got graphs. It's got memes.
Link below.
👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇
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The most intersting stuff happens at the seams
Love this from @jmj. Some of the most low-hanging fruit is at the intersection of multiple fields, because people tend to go deep rather than broad. Both are important!
I also like his analogy of "rock band" teams as the way to attack problems like ours at @warpsciences.
newinternet.tech/p/investing-at…
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Michael Koeris retweeted
Love this from @jmj. Some of the most low-hanging fruit is at the intersection of multiple fields, because people tend to go deep rather than broad. Both are important!
I also like his analogy of "rock band" teams as the way to attack problems like ours at @warpsciences.
newinternet.tech/p/investing-at…
I also like his analogy of "rock band" teams as the way to attack problems like ours at @warpsciences.
newinternet.tech/p/investing-at…
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Michael Koeris retweeted
your oct 2026 frontier biotech round up is in:
(you might wanna bookmark this)
- a rectal cancer drug got fda approval. 47% of patients had a complete response a year later, with no surgery, chemo or radiation
- a personalized mrna cancer vaccine plus keytruda cut melanoma recurrence 42% in phase 3
- a hair pill passed its second phase 3: +36 hairs per cm² vs +6.6 on placebo
- neuralink says an als patient hit 75 words per minute in week one. by thinking
- pig kidneys frozen in glass and rewarmed with nanoparticles made urine after transplant. one stayed frozen a full year and regained blood flow (preprint)
- blood cells from an 80 year old were turned into neural stem cells with a molecular age under 20
- the first fda approved dna medicine kept 27% of patients off the operating table for a year
- the fda drafted a path where custom gene edits can be updated without a new approval
- the nobel went to optogenetics: controlling neurons with light
- openai and anthropic both bought biotechs. anthropic's was one guy using claude
- warhound raised $200m to clone and gene-edit military dogs
- a wearable that reads your cortisol through sweat has 25,000+ people on the waitlist
what it adds up to, jan to oct:
1. ai labs went from selling tools to owning pipelines
apr: anthropic buys a <10 person bio team for ~$400m
jun: claude science, plus its own drug programs
oct: openai and anthropic both buy biotechs
2. the fda is building fast lanes
early 2026: a draft framework for custom gene edits
oct: a path to update them without a new approval
oct: two accelerated approvals on small trials
3. gene editing went from case study to product
lonvo-z cut hae attacks 87% in phase 3, and 62% were attack-free
lilly's verve-102 took ldl down up to 62% in phase 1
the fda is now writing rules for edits made for one patient
4. the money followed
biotech m&a hit $138.9b through sept, already above all of 2025 ($122.1b)
q3 cooled to $31.1b from $66.8b in q2, but the buyers still have cash: lilly did $24.4b in revenue in one quarter
my calls (not facts, not investment/financial advice):
- the first in vivo crispr drug could launch in 2027. intellia plans an h1 2027 launch if the fda approves lonvo-z
- the first drug from an ai lab's own pipeline reaches humans in late 2028 at the earliest, per anthropic
- more approvals on small, fast trials, and a louder fight over what counts as enough evidence
- retatrutide gets filed q1 2027, so approval lands around early 2028 on a standard review
i will be sharing my predictions/bets inside the newsletter as patterns unfold- stay tuned
bio/acc
(you might wanna bookmark this)
- a rectal cancer drug got fda approval. 47% of patients had a complete response a year later, with no surgery, chemo or radiation
- a personalized mrna cancer vaccine plus keytruda cut melanoma recurrence 42% in phase 3
- a hair pill passed its second phase 3: +36 hairs per cm² vs +6.6 on placebo
- neuralink says an als patient hit 75 words per minute in week one. by thinking
- pig kidneys frozen in glass and rewarmed with nanoparticles made urine after transplant. one stayed frozen a full year and regained blood flow (preprint)
- blood cells from an 80 year old were turned into neural stem cells with a molecular age under 20
- the first fda approved dna medicine kept 27% of patients off the operating table for a year
- the fda drafted a path where custom gene edits can be updated without a new approval
- the nobel went to optogenetics: controlling neurons with light
- openai and anthropic both bought biotechs. anthropic's was one guy using claude
- warhound raised $200m to clone and gene-edit military dogs
- a wearable that reads your cortisol through sweat has 25,000+ people on the waitlist
what it adds up to, jan to oct:
1. ai labs went from selling tools to owning pipelines
apr: anthropic buys a <10 person bio team for ~$400m
jun: claude science, plus its own drug programs
oct: openai and anthropic both buy biotechs
2. the fda is building fast lanes
early 2026: a draft framework for custom gene edits
oct: a path to update them without a new approval
oct: two accelerated approvals on small trials
3. gene editing went from case study to product
lonvo-z cut hae attacks 87% in phase 3, and 62% were attack-free
lilly's verve-102 took ldl down up to 62% in phase 1
the fda is now writing rules for edits made for one patient
4. the money followed
biotech m&a hit $138.9b through sept, already above all of 2025 ($122.1b)
q3 cooled to $31.1b from $66.8b in q2, but the buyers still have cash: lilly did $24.4b in revenue in one quarter
my calls (not facts, not investment/financial advice):
- the first in vivo crispr drug could launch in 2027. intellia plans an h1 2027 launch if the fda approves lonvo-z
- the first drug from an ai lab's own pipeline reaches humans in late 2028 at the earliest, per anthropic
- more approvals on small, fast trials, and a louder fight over what counts as enough evidence
- retatrutide gets filed q1 2027, so approval lands around early 2028 on a standard review
i will be sharing my predictions/bets inside the newsletter as patterns unfold- stay tuned
bio/acc
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Michael Koeris retweeted
I redid the startup founder signals that lead to top tier VCs investing in the seed / A, after incorporating some feedback.
This added ex-frontier lab and cyber security near the top, IIT as a positive, and educated in China as a negative.
The main changes were;
- extended 026, ~2x'd the number of startups
- unified and added some signals
Here are the new signals:
This added ex-frontier lab and cyber security near the top, IIT as a positive, and educated in China as a negative.
The main changes were;
- extended 026, ~2x'd the number of startups
- unified and added some signals
Here are the new signals:
Which startups are most likely to get an investment from top tier VCs?
I looked at ~60 attributes across 5000 startups and these were the 15 strongest.
#1 is being from a top tier fund. MBA is a negative signal
Full list of signals below:
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Michael Koeris retweeted
Love Kyle’s thinking.
I am reminded that someone posted here a list of major funds, and except for YC, everyone’s median entry price in rounds was ~$1B+.
I recently wrote an essay called “wartime investors”. It’s my way of thinking about good VCs getting in the weeds and helping build things worth building. x.com/bznotes/status…
I am reminded that someone posted here a list of major funds, and except for YC, everyone’s median entry price in rounds was ~$1B+.
I recently wrote an essay called “wartime investors”. It’s my way of thinking about good VCs getting in the weeds and helping build things worth building. x.com/bznotes/status…
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Michael Koeris retweeted
Eli Lilly's pipeline is out of control:
Q3 just dropped:
- retatrutide: ~28% body weight lost at 80 weeks, up to 30% at 2 years in the extension (phase 3, not approved yet)
- retatrutide vs ozempic's top dose in type 2 diabetes: more than 2x the weight loss
- foundayo, the weight loss pill: $184m in its launch quarter
- elora + tirzepatide beat tirzepatide's top dose in phase 2. phase 3 starts this quarter
- a once-weekly insulin got fda approved
- mounjaro is now approved to cut heart risk
- olumiant approved for kids 12+ with severe alopecia areata
- $24.4b revenue in one quarter, up 39%
what's coming:
- retatrutide trials in heart disease, knee osteoarthritis and sleep apnea
- olomorasib, a KRAS lung cancer drug, with durable first-line data
- a next-gen ADC for ovarian cancer, first human data just shown
- in vivo car-t, from the kelonia acquisition
- one-time gene editing for high cholesterol, from the verve acquisition
the number that matters: volume up 53%, price down 15%
my take is that obesity is now the cash machine, and lilly is spending it on everything else: gene editing, cell therapy, cancer.
the weight loss boom is paying for the next wave of drugs
bio/acc
Q3 just dropped:
- retatrutide: ~28% body weight lost at 80 weeks, up to 30% at 2 years in the extension (phase 3, not approved yet)
- retatrutide vs ozempic's top dose in type 2 diabetes: more than 2x the weight loss
- foundayo, the weight loss pill: $184m in its launch quarter
- elora + tirzepatide beat tirzepatide's top dose in phase 2. phase 3 starts this quarter
- a once-weekly insulin got fda approved
- mounjaro is now approved to cut heart risk
- olumiant approved for kids 12+ with severe alopecia areata
- $24.4b revenue in one quarter, up 39%
what's coming:
- retatrutide trials in heart disease, knee osteoarthritis and sleep apnea
- olomorasib, a KRAS lung cancer drug, with durable first-line data
- a next-gen ADC for ovarian cancer, first human data just shown
- in vivo car-t, from the kelonia acquisition
- one-time gene editing for high cholesterol, from the verve acquisition
the number that matters: volume up 53%, price down 15%
my take is that obesity is now the cash machine, and lilly is spending it on everything else: gene editing, cell therapy, cancer.
the weight loss boom is paying for the next wave of drugs
bio/acc
Eli Lilly has some banger drugs coming out!
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Michael Koeris retweeted
After a decade leading @foresightinst, I am transitioning out of the role as president and CEO and joining the Board of Directors. Foresight is in the strongest shape of its forty years, with our co-founder @lifeext as interim President. It’s hard to overstate how proud I am of our team’s impact, how grateful I am for our collaborators and supporters along the way and how excited I am for what’s next for this beacon of light of an organization. More about what’s next for me soon. In the meantime, join us at Vision Weekend in November to celebrate and kick off the next decade!
After ten years leading Foresight, Allison Duettmann is joining our Board of Directors as she transitions out of her role as President and CEO. Co-founder Christine Peterson will serve as interim President while our board has begun the search for Foresight’s next CEO.
Under oresight became the organization you know today: six focus areas, a fellowship that has supported 266 researchers, a multi-million-dollar grants program, Vision Weekends on three continents, and AI for Science and Safety Nodes in San Francisco and Berlin, built on her conviction that open science needs open compute.
And the team she built: 12 people across San Francisco and Berlin, running grants, fellowships, seminars, AI Nodes, Vision Weekends, and shaping what comes next – Karolina Eklöw, Lydia La Roux, Amber Duettmann, Madeleine Sarah, Beatrice Erkers, Martina Pepiciello, Bradley Clark Royes, Rachel Farley, Tara Padovan-Hickman, Madeleine Ahlström, Lisa Stenvinkel.
So thank you, Allison, for making Foresight what it is today. We look forward to seeing you, and all of you, at Vision Weekend in November, where you’ll meet the team and we’ll unveil what the future holds!
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Michael Koeris retweeted
The future of trauma care starts with predicting what comes next.
On Nov. 13, we will name the $1 million DARPA Triage Challenge (DTC) Data Competition winner. Hear from @shocktrauma experts at @umms on how predictive tools could help patients get the right care faster.
On Nov. 13, we will name the $1 million DARPA Triage Challenge (DTC) Data Competition winner. Hear from @shocktrauma experts at @umms on how predictive tools could help patients get the right care faster.
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Michael Koeris retweeted
Completely feel the gap increasing between AI-fueled progress at the frontier and everything else.
An interesting byproduct of sitting on the steep part of the curve is that you can no longer even rely on your previously held well-considered beliefs about …well anything.
I frequently find I can’t confidently say what I think about the state of science and its future and how it should be organized or how we should operate because I’m constantly like .. wait is that still what I think? or has 10 minutes gone by and changed the parameters and calculus. It leads to a kind of mental-updating fatigue for sure.
Having spent a considerable amount of my professional life trying to get researchers to stop offboarding their scientific judgement to journal, grant, and hiring panels, it feels like there’s now a completely new threat in the age of AI…offboarding your judgment to your own rapidly irrelevant prior opinion.
An interesting byproduct of sitting on the steep part of the curve is that you can no longer even rely on your previously held well-considered beliefs about …well anything.
I frequently find I can’t confidently say what I think about the state of science and its future and how it should be organized or how we should operate because I’m constantly like .. wait is that still what I think? or has 10 minutes gone by and changed the parameters and calculus. It leads to a kind of mental-updating fatigue for sure.
Having spent a considerable amount of my professional life trying to get researchers to stop offboarding their scientific judgement to journal, grant, and hiring panels, it feels like there’s now a completely new threat in the age of AI…offboarding your judgment to your own rapidly irrelevant prior opinion.
It’s almost incomprehensible how wide the distance is between someone who’s working at the frontier with AI and basically everyone else right now.
The crazy thing is these lines are not converging, but only growing farther apart. If the curve of AI progress had leveled off, it would certainly have given most people and companies time to catch up or implement their workflows in a standardized way. The technology would have neutralized competitive advantage because everyone would be using it the same way.
But what’s happened is the opposite. The curve of AI progress is basically going vertical right now, which means if you had codified your processes 3-6 months ago you’re likely already behind again. Now imagine most companies that kicked into gear a year ago and thought that they were done. Even further behind now.
I’ve never seen a technology in my life and career that improves at this rate, which consequently means you need to upgrade your expectations at a similar rate. Our brains weren’t wired for this, and our organizational change management processes certainly weren’t either.
With any form of recursive self improvement, things just get wilder. It’s a time when you will need to be constantly reevaluating the things that didn’t work just a couple months ago to see if they now can be solved. AI native companies certainly have a strong advantage due to this right now, so now it comes down to can the bigger companies keep up. Wild times.
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Michael Koeris retweeted
all you have to do is make it to 2028
this is what's arriving:
- a hair regrowth pill with two positive phase 3s gets its women's data next year
- a weight loss shot that hit ~28% in phase 3 gets filed with the FDA in early 2027 (retatrutide)
- the FDA decision on cagrisema, 20% average weight loss in phase 3, is due this quarter
- the first dog longevity pill applies for conditional approval in 2027 (loyal)
- obesity is already a daily pill; no needle, no food or water rules (orforglipron, approved april)
- a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine already beat keytruda alone in a 1,137 patient phase 3
- the first partial reprogramming therapy is already inside human eyes. 2 of 3 glaucoma patients gained visual field by day 56
- mark cuban is building a plant to make one-patient drugs for a ~$50k manufacturing fee
half this list was sci-fi 3 years ago, now it has filing dates.
bio/acc
this is what's arriving:
- a hair regrowth pill with two positive phase 3s gets its women's data next year
- a weight loss shot that hit ~28% in phase 3 gets filed with the FDA in early 2027 (retatrutide)
- the FDA decision on cagrisema, 20% average weight loss in phase 3, is due this quarter
- the first dog longevity pill applies for conditional approval in 2027 (loyal)
- obesity is already a daily pill; no needle, no food or water rules (orforglipron, approved april)
- a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine already beat keytruda alone in a 1,137 patient phase 3
- the first partial reprogramming therapy is already inside human eyes. 2 of 3 glaucoma patients gained visual field by day 56
- mark cuban is building a plant to make one-patient drugs for a ~$50k manufacturing fee
half this list was sci-fi 3 years ago, now it has filing dates.
bio/acc
@FischerKing64 Longevity is coming
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Michael Koeris retweeted
The Fruits of AI Drug Abundance: Indigestion In The Near Term
While the long term impact of AI is likely transformational, in the near term more drugs against known targets will likely exacerbate the crowding challenge dragging down industry R&D productivity
lifescivc.com/2026/10/the-fr…
While the long term impact of AI is likely transformational, in the near term more drugs against known targets will likely exacerbate the crowding challenge dragging down industry R&D productivity
lifescivc.com/2026/10/the-fr…
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Michael Koeris retweeted
We are pleased to announce that Edison Scientific is partnering with Pfizer to bring superintelligence to their R&D organization. Read more below.
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Michael Koeris retweeted
In collaboration with @olam_labs, we ran a series of experiments letting agent swarms compete in Minecraft and Mindustry.
We wanted to see what kinds of agent dynamics would emerge when they shared a world over long periods of time.
We found civil bureaucracy, thousands of s, and OpenAI models retrieving the game's source code to beat Claude.
More on our findings below:
We wanted to see what kinds of agent dynamics would emerge when they shared a world over long periods of time.
We found civil bureaucracy, thousands of s, and OpenAI models retrieving the game's source code to beat Claude.
More on our findings below:
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Michael Koeris retweeted
Amazing milestone before 1 year for @EdisonSci. Nov 2025, we launched a platform for individual scientists.
- 2.5 months later, we on-boarded first enterprise
- 7 months from launch, first public pharma deal with Incyte
- 8 months, went live with first internal deployment
- 11 p-10 pharma deal
I know in tech, this feels achievable. In pharma, this is an insane trajectory. What a ride so far!
- 2.5 months later, we on-boarded first enterprise
- 7 months from launch, first public pharma deal with Incyte
- 8 months, went live with first internal deployment
- 11 p-10 pharma deal
I know in tech, this feels achievable. In pharma, this is an insane trajectory. What a ride so far!
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Michael Koeris retweeted
At Edison, our goal is to bring superintelligence to medicine.
Today, we’re thrilled to announce an agreement with @pfizer to deploy our AI scientist, Kosmos, across Pfizer’s R&D pipeline.
By learning from Pfizer’s robust repositories of data across oncology, immunology, internal medicine and more, Kosmos will enable every program, experiment and clinical readout to sharpen Pfizer’s R&D decision-making and accelerate their pipeline, with compounding advantages to the discovery and development of life-saving medicines.
Today, we’re thrilled to announce an agreement with @pfizer to deploy our AI scientist, Kosmos, across Pfizer’s R&D pipeline.
By learning from Pfizer’s robust repositories of data across oncology, immunology, internal medicine and more, Kosmos will enable every program, experiment and clinical readout to sharpen Pfizer’s R&D decision-making and accelerate their pipeline, with compounding advantages to the discovery and development of life-saving medicines.
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Michael Koeris retweeted
Huge congratulations to @SGRodriques, @andrewwhite01 and the whole team at @EdisonSci on a major partnership with @pfizer! 🎉
Edison will deploy its AI platform and Kosmos, its AI Scientist, across Pfizer's R&D pipeline. Kosmos will work with Pfizer's data across oncology, integy and more, to support scientists and improve decisions on the way to new medicines.
What stands out:
• Kosmos keeps learning, so every experiment and clinical readout strengthens the whole system
• Edison's forward-deployed scientists and engineers will work directly with Pfizer research teams
• It follows Edison's 2026 partnerships with Incyte and Population Health Partners
This one is personal for the SynBioBeta community. Sam has taken our stage in both 2024 and 2025, and Pfizer has been part of our programs too, with Jeremy Sauer speaking in 2025 and Michael Baran in 2024. Great to see two groups from our community now building together.
Congrats to everyone at Edison who made this happen, including Aleks, Matt Lancini, @kulesatony, Michael Skarlinski and Michaela Hinks. Congrats also to Spark Capital, Triatomic Capital and Pillar VC for backing Edison early.
And thank you to the Pfizer leaders pushing an AI-native approach to R&D, including Albert Bourla, Chris Boshoff, Ariel Feldstein and Marie-Claire Peakman.
Pfizer will be speaking at SynBioBeta in May, with Ziwei Liang on the program. If you want to hear where AI and drug development are headed, come join us.
#AI #Biotech #DrugDiscovery #Pharma #SynBioBeta
Edison will deploy its AI platform and Kosmos, its AI Scientist, across Pfizer's R&D pipeline. Kosmos will work with Pfizer's data across oncology, integy and more, to support scientists and improve decisions on the way to new medicines.
What stands out:
• Kosmos keeps learning, so every experiment and clinical readout strengthens the whole system
• Edison's forward-deployed scientists and engineers will work directly with Pfizer research teams
• It follows Edison's 2026 partnerships with Incyte and Population Health Partners
This one is personal for the SynBioBeta community. Sam has taken our stage in both 2024 and 2025, and Pfizer has been part of our programs too, with Jeremy Sauer speaking in 2025 and Michael Baran in 2024. Great to see two groups from our community now building together.
Congrats to everyone at Edison who made this happen, including Aleks, Matt Lancini, @kulesatony, Michael Skarlinski and Michaela Hinks. Congrats also to Spark Capital, Triatomic Capital and Pillar VC for backing Edison early.
And thank you to the Pfizer leaders pushing an AI-native approach to R&D, including Albert Bourla, Chris Boshoff, Ariel Feldstein and Marie-Claire Peakman.
Pfizer will be speaking at SynBioBeta in May, with Ziwei Liang on the program. If you want to hear where AI and drug development are headed, come join us.
#AI #Biotech #DrugDiscovery #Pharma #SynBioBeta
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