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A favorite JFK quote: "The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality.'
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Larry Sabato retweeted
New @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: @JeffESchapiro on the Virginia House races as Democrats seek to make gains despite a failed gerrymandering attempt earlier this year centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/de…
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Larry Sabato retweeted
An observation or two about the #Va congressional races.
Thanks to @LarrySabato, @kkondik, @JMilesColeman, @ken_stroupe for including me.
@Center4Politics
Thanks to @LarrySabato, @kkondik, @JMilesColeman, @ken_stroupe for including me.
@Center4Politics
New @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: @JeffESchapiro on the Virginia House races as Democrats seek to make gains despite a failed gerrymandering attempt earlier this year centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/de…
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Les démocrates ont le Sénat à portée de main mais il leur faut un sacré coup de patte.
@ObservElections leur donne 30% de chances de l'emporter mais faire basculer le Texas ou le Maine leur ouvrirait grand la voie de la victoire.
Verdict le 3 novembre avec le @Le_Millenaire.
@ObservElections leur donne 30% de chances de l'emporter mais faire basculer le Texas ou le Maine leur ouvrirait grand la voie de la victoire.
Verdict le 3 novembre avec le @Le_Millenaire.
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Seule certitude à ce stade : les rangs républicains vont s'éclaircir.
Les démocrates sont favoris dans 23 circos remportées par Trump selon @ObservElections.
Alors, effondrement global ou simple revers inhérent aux #midterms ? Réponse le 3 novembre avec @Le_Millenaire.
Les démocrates sont favoris dans 23 circos remportées par Trump selon @ObservElections.
Alors, effondrement global ou simple revers inhérent aux #midterms ? Réponse le 3 novembre avec @Le_Millenaire.
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Larry Sabato retweeted
The concern for Republicans is that the trend is generally moving in the wrong direction.
The gaps were always large but were bigger in the second half of the week than in the first. Republicans hope this trend reverses in the second week.
The gaps were always large but were bigger in the second half of the week than in the first. Republicans hope this trend reverses in the second week.
In Texas, infrequent voters who typically sit out elections voting in 2026 are disproportionately nonwhite.
This suggests the electorate could be more racially diverse and Democratic-leaning than in 2024. There's still time for that to change.
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Larry Sabato retweeted
ELECTION DAY RECORD: with a week to go, U.S. gas prices are 42.3c/gal above 2022’s election day avg, the priciest election day at the pump ever. diesel is nearly $1/gal above 2022’s $5.33/gal. both are on track for the highest election day prices on record (not all-time highs).
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Like an Olympic athlete with a great derriere, Trump enjoys a challenge.
Here are the 2024 results for the states Trump & Vance are visiting in the home stretch:
Mississippi: 🔴 Trump +23
Texas: 🔴 Trump +14
Ohio: 🔴 Trump +11
Florida: 🔴 Trump +13
Iowa: 🔴 Trump +13
Montana: 🔴 Trump +20
Kansas: 🔴 Trump +16
Michigan: 🔴 Trump +1
Avg: 🔴 Trump +14
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Larry Sabato retweeted
New: Sources from three countries confirm that the Trump Administration has advocated Viktor Orbán for UN Secretary-General.
The US has encouraged Orbán to enter the race, even bringing him the initial idea of a joint U.S.-Russia-China candidacy.
WSJ:
wsj.com/opinion/viktor…
The US has encouraged Orbán to enter the race, even bringing him the initial idea of a joint U.S.-Russia-China candidacy.
WSJ:
wsj.com/opinion/viktor…
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Bob Woodward, “Secrets”Guaranteed #1 NYTimes Bestseller. I can’t wait for the release (Nov. 24) Anyone of the Watergate generation will devour this book. So much more too. washingtonpost.com/investigations…
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Larry Sabato retweeted
The early voting blog is updated.
It continues to look a lot like 2022, when Dems did well in NV except for the minor thing of losing the gov's race. But this time Trump is president and numbers are not good for GOP.
Rather be a D than an R right now.
thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-ea…
It continues to look a lot like 2022, when Dems did well in NV except for the minor thing of losing the gov's race. But this time Trump is president and numbers are not good for GOP.
Rather be a D than an R right now.
thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-ea…
I'll have an early voting blog post up in a bit, but:
On a day Rs expected to do well, Ds had their biggest gain Saturday.
The current numbers:
D+16,864, or 4.5%.
Rurals closed today, so Rs will need to do well in urban Nevada to stanch the bleeding.
Post coming...
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Larry Sabato retweeted
The Heritage Foundation adviser who recruited 12 bishops to pray over Trump in the Oval Office claimed a Ph.D. from an Italian university that doesn’t grant doctorates. His listed bachelor’s school is a high school.
A Vatican official called the meeting an insult to Pope Leo XIV. thelettersfromleo.com/p/heritage-off…
A Vatican official called the meeting an insult to Pope Leo XIV. thelettersfromleo.com/p/heritage-off…
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Tho rarely discussed, college-educated voters consistently comprise 4-5 pts more of the vote in m/terms than the preceding presidential race. That could be a crucial thumb on scale for Ds in a yr when Trump faces such high disapproval from them. My take. cnn.com/2026/10/25/pol…
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Really proud of what the whole team and I have built here. We get to do some incredible things at VoteHub!
Here’s a walkthrough of the new donor map and a bit of analysis on where campaign money is coming from this cycle.
Here’s a walkthrough of the new donor map and a bit of analysis on where campaign money is coming from this cycle.
🚨🚨 We are thrilled to launch the VoteHub 2026 National Donor Map.
See where nearly $2 billion in donations to House and Senate campaigns came from, county by county, for every 2026 race and nearly 2,900 candidates. 🧵
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Well, Adam, when you put it like that…
Let’s try something for a second.
Pretend you’ve never seen a single poll this cycle. You don’t know what the generic ballot average is, you don’t know any polling averages in any Senate or governor’s race, and you don’t know what Trump’s job approval is. Forget about historical polling bias. And pretend you’ve never seen any hackish/wishcasting early voting analysis.
And consider the following:
— Republican and Democratic groups are spending most of their money in more than a half-dozen Senate races where Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024, including states like Kansas that haven’t elected a Democratic Senator since FDR was president.
— Republican and Democratic groups are spending money defending dozens of House seats that Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024, including some where he won by over 20 points.
— In the home stretch, Trump is campaigning in deep red states like Mississippi and South Carolina.
— Republican statewide candidates (e.g., Rick Jackson in Georgia, Dan Patrick in Texas) are publicly begging rural voters to vote early because they are openly panicking about their relative turnout so far.
— Trump instructed the Justice Department to sue to pre-emptively block the certification of the Senate results in Alaska if the Republican candidate loses.
— Nearly all of Republicans’ closing message attacks are some form of trying to tie their very-clearly-not-socialist Democratic opponents to socialism, and/or trying to focus their race on trans issues instead of kitchen table issues (e.g., inflation/affordability).
— Republican candidates running in deep red states and districts that Democrats could not imagine winning in their wildest dreams (e.g., Arkansas Senate, Wyoming House), are going on the offensive against their Democratic opponents down the stretch, because they aren’t quite sure where the bottom is going to be.
— Republican candidates in double-digit Trump districts are quietly scrubbing all mentions of Trump from their campaign websites.
— Latino candidates in deeply Latino areas that swung heavily toward Trump in 2024 (e.g., in South Texas and South Florida) are campaigning against Trump on ICE overreach — something that was never essentially unthinkable ~18 months ago.
— Self-described moderate Democratic candidates running in Trump-double-digit states like Josh Turek in Iowa are running on things like price controls.
— Qualitative race raters like Cook & Sabato’s Crystal Ball — who get access to tons of internal polling from both parties that never see the light of day — have been shifting their ratings of dozens of seats towards Democrats on a weekly basis in October.
Add that all together — what does that signal to you about how both parties, and neutral outside observers, currently view the national environment?
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Americans have now spent $142 billion more on gasoline and diesel since March 1, enough to buy 361,000 homes at the September median price, enough to house over 900,000 people
Trump: "While oil prices are temporarily high ... the United States oil and gas business is making hundreds of billions of dollars"
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Got our final poll of the cycle back @TheArgumentMag.
I've just never seen the bottom fall out *this badly* for a party before. There is nothing — and I mean *nothing* — good for Republicans in this one. It might well be our ugliest one yet for them.
I've just never seen the bottom fall out *this badly* for a party before. There is nothing — and I mean *nothing* — good for Republicans in this one. It might well be our ugliest one yet for them.
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Larry Sabato retweeted
In 1943, the Gestapo finally caught Raymond Aubrac, one of France’s most wanted Resistance leaders. The German secret police sentenced him to death, and his execution was only days away.
At the same time, his wife Lucie was six months pregnant with their second child. Most would have gone into hiding, grieved quietly, and prayed for a miracle.
Lucie Aubrac decided to do something completely different.
She got her hands on forged identity papers, created a believable cover story, and walked straight into the office of Klaus Barbie. History would later remember Barbie as the brutal Butcher of Lyon, but Lucie did not let fear stop her.
She looked him in the eye and successfully convinced him to grant her a final visit with her condemned husband.
But Lucie did not risk her life just to say a tearful goodbye. While she was inside the prison area, she was secretly memorizing the positions of the guards, counting the minutes between patrols, and mapping out the exact route the prison truck would take.
She was treating a desperate situation like a military operation.
On October 21, 1943, that prison truck rolled through the streets of Lyon. It was carrying Raymond and several other prisoners toward what should have been their final destination.
What the German soldiers did not know was that Lucie had spent weeks quietly assembling a dedicated team of Resistance fighters.
She planned an ambush with absolute precision.
When the truck finally reached the chosen ambush spot, her team struck fast, coordinated, and without a single moment of hesitation.
In the middle of the sudden gunfire and chaos, Raymond Aubrac was pulled free from the truck. Lucie, who was visibly and unmistakably pregnant, had organized every single detail of his dramatic liberation.
Right after the rescue, the couple had to go into deep hiding. A few weeks later, Lucie gave birth to their daughter in a secret safe house while German forces searched frantically for them across France. They managed to evade capture until the war ended.
When liberation finally came, the Aubracs did not just try to sit back and recover from their trauma. Instead, they rebuilt their lives and continued to serve their country.
Raymond became a celebrated engineer and entered public life to help rebuild France's infrastructure. Lucie became a respected historian, pouring decades of her life into making sure that the women of the French Resistance were never forgotten.
She wanted to make sure these women, who were so often unnamed in the history books, were written permanently into the record. Together, the couple raised three children, traveled the world, argued, laughed, and grew old side by side.
Years later, journalists asked Lucie what had compelled her to risk everything on that dangerous October day. She did not hesitate for a second. She looked at them and said, "He was my husband. What else would I do?"
In his final years, he continued speaking publicly to young generations about the Resistance, the power of memory, and the absolute obligation to tell the truth about history.
When Lucie passed away in 2007 at 94, and Raymond followed her in 2012 at 97, they left behind a 64 year marriage that was a testament to the ultimate triumph of life and family over hatred.
Their love didn't just survive a war it blossomed into a lifetime of shared smiles, proving that the greatest force in the world is a heart that refuses to give up on the one it loves ♥️♥️
At the same time, his wife Lucie was six months pregnant with their second child. Most would have gone into hiding, grieved quietly, and prayed for a miracle.
Lucie Aubrac decided to do something completely different.
She got her hands on forged identity papers, created a believable cover story, and walked straight into the office of Klaus Barbie. History would later remember Barbie as the brutal Butcher of Lyon, but Lucie did not let fear stop her.
She looked him in the eye and successfully convinced him to grant her a final visit with her condemned husband.
But Lucie did not risk her life just to say a tearful goodbye. While she was inside the prison area, she was secretly memorizing the positions of the guards, counting the minutes between patrols, and mapping out the exact route the prison truck would take.
She was treating a desperate situation like a military operation.
On October 21, 1943, that prison truck rolled through the streets of Lyon. It was carrying Raymond and several other prisoners toward what should have been their final destination.
What the German soldiers did not know was that Lucie had spent weeks quietly assembling a dedicated team of Resistance fighters.
She planned an ambush with absolute precision.
When the truck finally reached the chosen ambush spot, her team struck fast, coordinated, and without a single moment of hesitation.
In the middle of the sudden gunfire and chaos, Raymond Aubrac was pulled free from the truck. Lucie, who was visibly and unmistakably pregnant, had organized every single detail of his dramatic liberation.
Right after the rescue, the couple had to go into deep hiding. A few weeks later, Lucie gave birth to their daughter in a secret safe house while German forces searched frantically for them across France. They managed to evade capture until the war ended.
When liberation finally came, the Aubracs did not just try to sit back and recover from their trauma. Instead, they rebuilt their lives and continued to serve their country.
Raymond became a celebrated engineer and entered public life to help rebuild France's infrastructure. Lucie became a respected historian, pouring decades of her life into making sure that the women of the French Resistance were never forgotten.
She wanted to make sure these women, who were so often unnamed in the history books, were written permanently into the record. Together, the couple raised three children, traveled the world, argued, laughed, and grew old side by side.
Years later, journalists asked Lucie what had compelled her to risk everything on that dangerous October day. She did not hesitate for a second. She looked at them and said, "He was my husband. What else would I do?"
In his final years, he continued speaking publicly to young generations about the Resistance, the power of memory, and the absolute obligation to tell the truth about history.
When Lucie passed away in 2007 at 94, and Raymond followed her in 2012 at 97, they left behind a 64 year marriage that was a testament to the ultimate triumph of life and family over hatred.
Their love didn't just survive a war it blossomed into a lifetime of shared smiles, proving that the greatest force in the world is a heart that refuses to give up on the one it loves ♥️♥️
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