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It’s October 1st. We are 33 days out.
If you just got paid and have a few dollars to spare, here are links where you can split your donation between Senate and/or House Dem candidates in dozens of crucial races:
Senate: secure.actblue.com/donate/2026sen…
House: secure.actblue.com/donate/26house…
If you just got paid and have a few dollars to spare, here are links where you can split your donation between Senate and/or House Dem candidates in dozens of crucial races:
Senate: secure.actblue.com/donate/2026sen…
House: secure.actblue.com/donate/26house…
Election Day is 6 weeks from today.
Mail & early voting starts sooner than that.
R outside groups are about to hit Ds with a cash tsunami.
Instead of just reading about & commenting on them, why not donate a lil cash to the races where your money can make the biggest impact?
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For those who are new to following elections, here’s a pro tip — if a candidate running for statewide office is doing direct-to camera videos begging their base to turn out, it usually means they feel like they’re on a glide path and merely want to pad their margin of victory.
Rural Republicans must turn out to VOTE EARLY stop the Austin Democrats from taking over Texas. Get to the polls today and bring your friends and family.
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Adam Carlson retweeted
I’ve grown pretty tired of the Yglesias conversation but I will say his exchange here does demonstrate a clearly ridiculous theory of change. Coming out of 2024 Dems were primarily criticized for being ineffectual, the idea that voters would stick with them if they stayed silent as people were being extrajudicially kidnapped and set off to foreign prisons is just stupid
Me: "Even if it was unpopular, are you saying the Democratic Party should not speak out against the president sending migrants who have committed no crimes to be tortured in a foreign gulag?"
@mattyglesias: "Yeah."
Me: "Just stay silent?"
Yglesias: "I think that sometimes, if ... you gotta win first."
Me: "They might be dead in three years time, by the time you win."
Despite all the arguments on this hellsite over the exact number of his Piker tweets, this was the part of my interview with Matthew Yglesias that really stood out to me. I was actually stunned by this response. Shouldn't politics also stand for something more than triangulation, polling and 4-D chess strategizing?
Full interview: zeteo.com/p/matt-yglesia…
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Adam Carlson retweeted
With Texas Senate turnout set to approach presidential levels, it's worth examining 2024 nonvoters.
Hispanic voters are streaming into the electorate at remarkable rates, alongside Asian voters. Both groups are expected to favor Talarico and Hinojosa.
Hispanic voters are streaming into the electorate at remarkable rates, alongside Asian voters. Both groups are expected to favor Talarico and Hinojosa.
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Adam Carlson retweeted
Some of the most striking early voting data this cycle is coming from Louisiana, where Democrats are seeing particularly strong turnout among young and low-propensity voters, who are disproportionately driving the shift toward Democrats.
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Adam Carlson retweeted
In 2022, this was the Republicans’ best day of early voting. Today may be their worst of 2026.
Early in-person, Clark County, NV (SoS)
10/24/2026 - 3:15 pm PT
Dem 4,122 (40.7%)
Rep 3,546 (35.0%)
Other 2,450 (24.2%)
Total 10,118
Dem +5.7% (2024 Rep +11.4) (2022 Rep +16.8)
Likely Dems' best day yet. D+17 vs 2024, D+23 vs 2022 so far.
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Adam Carlson retweeted
Let’s check the actual facts:
🚨🚨🚨🚨This means it's pretty much over for the Democrats in Arizona this election unless they engage in the most blatant obvious cheating. I've lived here half my life, was the former Maricopa County Elections attorney, and have NEVER seen Republicans equal the Democrats with ballot returns before an election, because they are more likely to vote in person on Election Day than Democrats. And I just heard Republicans are now ahead. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
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Adam Carlson retweeted
TX IPEV DAY 5 UPDATE:
16-county electorate shift is down to D+9 (was D+10 one day ago).
In most big counties, Day 5 was bluer than Day 4. The red-shift from day 1-4 seems to have stabilized, even in a deep-red area like Montgomery. Collin/Denton are tracking their 2024 This is the U shape as lower propensity voters start to backload.
The recall in the tracker is not inclusive of voters who sat out 2024. On day 1 this was 11% of the electorate, now it is up to 14%. 3/3 voters were 63% on day 1, now they are 55%. So the low propensity voters in these areas are definitely turning on.
Hispanic turnout continues to shatter records. In Harris County, whiter areas like Tomball/Atascocita/Katy which provide big R margins have lower turnout. In Dallas, the lowest turnout areas are the rich white areas (Park Cities) - even the black areas are >100% of 2024 turnout now. Collin is seeing turnout dropoff steeply along the white-Asian frontier just north of Frisco and east of Plano.
Latino turnout in the Valley is pretty good, but interestingly, core McAllen/Edinburg (the higher-ed part of the region, overlaps with competitive HD41) is low, whereas the monte is really coming out. In Cameron, it's a much flatter gradient but poorer/lower ed areas (west side of Harlingen, Cameron Park in Brownsville, San Benito) are on fire.
Dark MAGA areas are still not turning out. More educated ones like Montgomery/Randall are coming online, but the really rural ones like Hardin are struggling. Jefferson (Port Neches/Groves area) as well.
The next week will see more low prop voters come online as both parties burn through 3/3 voters (Dems earlier, now Republicans).
I have also added House District viewers so you can see the electorates there. Onwards!
claude.ai/artifact/QSaAi…
16-county electorate shift is down to D+9 (was D+10 one day ago).
In most big counties, Day 5 was bluer than Day 4. The red-shift from day 1-4 seems to have stabilized, even in a deep-red area like Montgomery. Collin/Denton are tracking their 2024 This is the U shape as lower propensity voters start to backload.
The recall in the tracker is not inclusive of voters who sat out 2024. On day 1 this was 11% of the electorate, now it is up to 14%. 3/3 voters were 63% on day 1, now they are 55%. So the low propensity voters in these areas are definitely turning on.
Hispanic turnout continues to shatter records. In Harris County, whiter areas like Tomball/Atascocita/Katy which provide big R margins have lower turnout. In Dallas, the lowest turnout areas are the rich white areas (Park Cities) - even the black areas are >100% of 2024 turnout now. Collin is seeing turnout dropoff steeply along the white-Asian frontier just north of Frisco and east of Plano.
Latino turnout in the Valley is pretty good, but interestingly, core McAllen/Edinburg (the higher-ed part of the region, overlaps with competitive HD41) is low, whereas the monte is really coming out. In Cameron, it's a much flatter gradient but poorer/lower ed areas (west side of Harlingen, Cameron Park in Brownsville, San Benito) are on fire.
Dark MAGA areas are still not turning out. More educated ones like Montgomery/Randall are coming online, but the really rural ones like Hardin are struggling. Jefferson (Port Neches/Groves area) as well.
The next week will see more low prop voters come online as both parties burn through 3/3 voters (Dems earlier, now Republicans).
I have also added House District viewers so you can see the electorates there. Onwards!
claude.ai/artifact/QSaAi…
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Adam Carlson retweeted
As turnout in Texas nears 3 million votes, Hispanic turnout is now exceeding presidential levels. More Hispanics have voted than did at this point in the 2024 presidential election. What's driving this huge increase? Young voters.
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Adam Carlson retweeted
“He’s got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened up a Cheesecake Factory” — Obama
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The disgusting attack ad in the Ohio governor’s race points to a much bigger problem in politics. The political parties don't care about the character or integrity of their candidates anymore. They only care about power — no matter what it takes. We need common sense leadership, ties are failing to meet the moment.
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Adam Carlson retweeted
Manchin spins the Ramaswamy ad as a critique of both political parties
The disgusting attack ad in the Ohio governor’s race points to a much bigger problem in politics. The political parties don't care about the character or integrity of their candidates anymore. They only care about power — no matter what it takes. We need common sense leadership, ties are failing to meet the moment.
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Adam Carlson retweeted
This is how margin of error works actually and it makes me want to put my head through a wall that we continue to litigate it while ignoring the statistics. MoE applies to each frequency, not the “spread” and there is no Undecided result on Election Day. Who the Und are matters!
This is a major problem with how people and organizations measure polling “error” in general.
It assumes that voters who are undecided voters (and perhaps most that say they’re voting third party) will break proportionally to their vote share in the poll.
And often times they don’t! They often break hard one way or another. Doesn’t mean the poll was wrong. It wasn’t what it was measuring (unless they literally do an allocated vote to get to zero undecideds, which can be tricky/done poorly).
For example, if a pollster’s final poll of the race has the Democratic candidate at 46% and the Republican candidate at 42% with 12% undecided (so, D+4), but the Republican candidate wins 51-49, it could just be that undecideds broke hard for the Republican. But most people would say that the poll was off by 6 points (by margin).
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Adam Carlson retweeted
Deluzio is everywhere this cycle. He’s been hustling to flip the four House seats and stumping for candidates for the state legislature key to getting a trifecta. He’s impressing a lot of people statewide.
Democrats are eyeing a John Fetterman challenge. Chris Deluzio is already laying the groundwork. politi.co/4dQsqbz
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Adam Carlson retweeted
Alaskans don’t need any help voting for their preferred candidates, and the State of Alaska has already handled this by clearly distinguishing the candidates on this year’s ballot. The Department of Justice should never have filed this lawsuit.
apnews.com/article/alaska…
apnews.com/article/alaska…
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I mean he is the expert on this
Pollster John McLaughlin warns of inaccurate midterm polls: internal details 'just don't make sense' justthenews.com/politics-polic…
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Adam Carlson retweeted
Happy Day 1 of Early Voting! 🗳️Polls open 9am-5pm
Find your pollsite at findmypollsite.vote.nyc
Find your pollsite at findmypollsite.vote.nyc
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