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Our midterms model is out!
House: 🔵 86% (229 D-206 R)
Senate: 🔴 56% (50D-50R)
theargumentmag.com/p/split-ticket…
House: 🔵 86% (229 D-206 R)
Senate: 🔴 56% (50D-50R)
theargumentmag.com/p/split-ticket…
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Lakshya Jain retweeted
Michigan Election Night Preview (8pm, 9pm polls close)
Operations
Michigan counts votes very slowly. Fewer than half of all votes may be reported by midnight, and a substantial number may still be outstanding at 3 a.m. Detroit often does not finish their Election Night reporting until around 9 a.m., and that doesn't even include ballots counted after Election Night in the trail period. Absentee ballots and votes from more Democratic-leaning areas often are counted last, making results in the early morning look more Republican than the final outcome.
It’s crucial to keep this Republican mirage in mind during the early morning hours. Even if El-Sayed trails by 2–3 points at 3 a.m., he could still be favored to win, depending on where the remaining votes are coming from. If they are concentrated in areas that historically report after 3 a.m. as we expect, he would be favored to make up about 3 points. Democratic areas in Wayne, Ingham, Saginaw, Kalamazoo, and Washtenaw counties, along with Flint, often report last. Even at 6 a.m., votes from Detroit and other late-reporting areas could still be outstanding and help El-Sayed gain ground.
Key races
Michigan Senate: Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring El-Sayed to win by 3.3 points. El-Sayed, a progressive, defeated Haley Stevens in a contentious primary. Rogers, a former representative, narrowly lost to Elissa Slotkin in 2024, even as Trump won the state.
Michigan Governor: Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Likely Democratic, favoring Benson to win by 8.6 points. Benson is favored to succeed Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, as Democrats expect the blue environment to help them hang on to the governor’s mansion in a state Trump won. James, a current representative, lost two statewide races in 2018 and 2020 and is hoping for a better result on his third try.
MI-04: Bill Huizenga (R) faces Sean McCann (D). The district was Trump+5.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Republican, favoring Huizenga to win by 2.2 points. Huizenga has historically been a strong candidate, running more than 6 points ahead of Trump in 2024. However, he faces a challenge in this western Michigan district, which includes Kalamazoo and is likely to vote for Benson at the top of the ticket. He will likely need to outrun James to keep his seat.
MI-07: William Lawrence (D) faces Tom Barrett (R). The district was Trump+1.3 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Democratic, favoring Lawrence to win by 2 points. In this district centered on Lansing and the surrounding area, Republican incumbent Tom Barrett is hoping to hold on even as Benson is heavily favored to win it at the top of the ticket. He is hoping that progressive insurgent William Lawrence will prove weak electorally, giving him an opening to win over swing voters. Lawrence, and national progressives, are hoping that a resounding victory in the seat will prove progressives can flip seats from red to blue and run close to the top of the ballot while doing it.
MI-10: Christina Hines (D) faces Mike Bouchard Jr. (R). The district was Trump+6.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring Hines to win by 2.8 points. Hines is hoping to flip this open seat centered on Macomb County, a working-class suburban area outside Detroit. Our forecast currently has both Benson and Rogers winning the district, meaning the House race may come down to candidate quality.
Operations
Michigan counts votes very slowly. Fewer than half of all votes may be reported by midnight, and a substantial number may still be outstanding at 3 a.m. Detroit often does not finish their Election Night reporting until around 9 a.m., and that doesn't even include ballots counted after Election Night in the trail period. Absentee ballots and votes from more Democratic-leaning areas often are counted last, making results in the early morning look more Republican than the final outcome.
It’s crucial to keep this Republican mirage in mind during the early morning hours. Even if El-Sayed trails by 2–3 points at 3 a.m., he could still be favored to win, depending on where the remaining votes are coming from. If they are concentrated in areas that historically report after 3 a.m. as we expect, he would be favored to make up about 3 points. Democratic areas in Wayne, Ingham, Saginaw, Kalamazoo, and Washtenaw counties, along with Flint, often report last. Even at 6 a.m., votes from Detroit and other late-reporting areas could still be outstanding and help El-Sayed gain ground.
Key races
Michigan Senate: Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring El-Sayed to win by 3.3 points. El-Sayed, a progressive, defeated Haley Stevens in a contentious primary. Rogers, a former representative, narrowly lost to Elissa Slotkin in 2024, even as Trump won the state.
Michigan Governor: Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Likely Democratic, favoring Benson to win by 8.6 points. Benson is favored to succeed Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, as Democrats expect the blue environment to help them hang on to the governor’s mansion in a state Trump won. James, a current representative, lost two statewide races in 2018 and 2020 and is hoping for a better result on his third try.
MI-04: Bill Huizenga (R) faces Sean McCann (D). The district was Trump+5.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Republican, favoring Huizenga to win by 2.2 points. Huizenga has historically been a strong candidate, running more than 6 points ahead of Trump in 2024. However, he faces a challenge in this western Michigan district, which includes Kalamazoo and is likely to vote for Benson at the top of the ticket. He will likely need to outrun James to keep his seat.
MI-07: William Lawrence (D) faces Tom Barrett (R). The district was Trump+1.3 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Democratic, favoring Lawrence to win by 2 points. In this district centered on Lansing and the surrounding area, Republican incumbent Tom Barrett is hoping to hold on even as Benson is heavily favored to win it at the top of the ticket. He is hoping that progressive insurgent William Lawrence will prove weak electorally, giving him an opening to win over swing voters. Lawrence, and national progressives, are hoping that a resounding victory in the seat will prove progressives can flip seats from red to blue and run close to the top of the ballot while doing it.
MI-10: Christina Hines (D) faces Mike Bouchard Jr. (R). The district was Trump+6.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring Hines to win by 2.8 points. Hines is hoping to flip this open seat centered on Macomb County, a working-class suburban area outside Detroit. Our forecast currently has both Benson and Rogers winning the district, meaning the House race may come down to candidate quality.
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To be clear: the race has been close for a long time. In fact, we flagged this as a tossup in *June*, and experts were still calling this safe Republican back then.
theargumentmag.com/p/the-experts-…
theargumentmag.com/p/the-experts-…
On air just now, Alabama talk radio host Jeff Poor says he’s seen internal polling with Rhett Marques down 4 points in AL-2.
Says Marques is “underperforming,” Figures is a good retail politician and is capturing populist energy.
“Where is Rhett Marques’ coalition?”
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Really excited to announce that @TheArgumentMag, Silver Bulletin (@NateSilver538) and @galendruke will be hosting an election night watch party, with real-time analysis and reactions as results roll in!
Come join us!
Come join us!
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Lakshya Jain retweeted
Your election night plans? Made ✅
Join The Argument at our live midterms watch party with @NateSilver538 of Silver Bulletin and @galendruke of GD Politics!
We'll be sharing real-time reactions and commentary from some of the sharpest analysts in the business, plus very es from renowned experts.
Come watch election night unfold with us!
Join The Argument at our live midterms watch party with @NateSilver538 of Silver Bulletin and @galendruke of GD Politics!
We'll be sharing real-time reactions and commentary from some of the sharpest analysts in the business, plus very es from renowned experts.
Come watch election night unfold with us!
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I try to avoid criticizing other pollsters much nowadays, but this is ridiculous. This is basically just what you do if you don't believe your polls and don't have the guts to stand by your numbers. Democrats aren't doing 7% worse with likely voters in 2026.
Marist just released its final poll of Maine—& they're doubling down on their now-trademark gap between registered & likely voters.
—Jackson leads Collins 49% to 47% among LVs.
—He's up 53% to 44% among RVs.
(Marist's poll 3 weeks ago had Jackson leading 51/47 among RVs.)
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Like, what are we doing here? If you think your samples are just way too Democratic, then weight your numbers by party or recall like all other pollsters do instead of this weird thumb-on-the-scale garbage.
x.com/Taniel/status/…
x.com/Taniel/status/…
Meanwhile, the governor's question:
It is tied 44/44 among likely voters, with 6% for the independent, while Pingree is up by 11% among registered voters (compared to +12 three weeks ago).
Well, you can't say Marist is herding with the Gov numbers.
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Lakshya Jain retweeted
It must have been some kind of divine providence that @lxeagle17 picked up on this as I was writing about #KansasSenate:
vox.com/politics/50757…
vox.com/politics/50757…
The Democrats can't wait out God.
From me, on the disastrous suggestions of the failed 2010s school of thought that said "just wait and change nothing, and enough atheists will emerge".
This was always a stupid strategy.
theargumentmag.com/p/the-democrat…
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We'll be chatting elections and spinning through the latest polls, forecasts, and what — if anything — you can glean from early voting data. Come join!
Excited to announce that @lxeagle17, @Thorongil16, @admcrlsn, and I will host three X Spaces ahead of next Tuesday’s midterm elections to discuss polling, forecasts, early voting, and more. We’ll also take your questions along the way.
We’ll stay flexible on topics, but here’s y, October 27 | 8:30–10 p.m.
We’ll break down the state of play in the House and Senate, national polling, demographic trends, and the persuasion and turnout dynamics we’re watching.
Friday, October 30 | 8:30–10 p.m.
With early voting nearly complete across most key states, we’ll discuss what we’ve learned, including a close look at Texas with @Thorongil16. We’ll also talk about what the emerging electorate means for whom candidates need to persuade to win.
Monday, November 2 | 7:30 p.m. – ???
Our final thoughts, a breakdown of key races, and what to watch as results come in Tuesday night. We’ll help you get ready to follow election night like a pro.
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Lakshya Jain retweeted
Excited to announce that @lxeagle17, @Thorongil16, @admcrlsn, and I will host three X Spaces ahead of next Tuesday’s midterm elections to discuss polling, forecasts, early voting, and more. We’ll also take your questions along the way.
We’ll stay flexible on topics, but here’s y, October 27 | 8:30–10 p.m.
We’ll break down the state of play in the House and Senate, national polling, demographic trends, and the persuasion and turnout dynamics we’re watching.
Friday, October 30 | 8:30–10 p.m.
With early voting nearly complete across most key states, we’ll discuss what we’ve learned, including a close look at Texas with @Thorongil16. We’ll also talk about what the emerging electorate means for whom candidates need to persuade to win.
Monday, November 2 | 7:30 p.m. – ???
Our final thoughts, a breakdown of key races, and what to watch as results come in Tuesday night. We’ll help you get ready to follow election night like a pro.
We’ll stay flexible on topics, but here’s y, October 27 | 8:30–10 p.m.
We’ll break down the state of play in the House and Senate, national polling, demographic trends, and the persuasion and turnout dynamics we’re watching.
Friday, October 30 | 8:30–10 p.m.
With early voting nearly complete across most key states, we’ll discuss what we’ve learned, including a close look at Texas with @Thorongil16. We’ll also talk about what the emerging electorate means for whom candidates need to persuade to win.
Monday, November 2 | 7:30 p.m. – ???
Our final thoughts, a breakdown of key races, and what to watch as results come in Tuesday night. We’ll help you get ready to follow election night like a pro.
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Got our final poll of the cycle back @TheArgumentMag.
I've just never seen the bottom fall out *this badly* for a party before. There is nothing — and I mean *nothing* — good for Republicans in this one. It might well be our ugliest one yet for them.
I've just never seen the bottom fall out *this badly* for a party before. There is nothing — and I mean *nothing* — good for Republicans in this one. It might well be our ugliest one yet for them.
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@TheArgumentMag If you really want to squint, I guess you could say that the public certainly doesn't love Democrats in this poll. But the problem there is that they absolutely *hate* Republicans.
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@TheArgumentMag Anyways, we'll be releasing and breaking it down live on Thursday, 10/29 at 7PM eastern. Please come join us — and paid subscribers can submit their own questions too.
luma.com/xt3uy8gq
luma.com/xt3uy8gq
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This is extremely consistent with what we've seen in our surveys. The largest drop between RV and LV margins for the GOP is with young voters.
In our estimation, young likely voters are 10 percentage points more Democratic, on margin, than young registered voters are.
In our estimation, young likely voters are 10 percentage points more Democratic, on margin, than young registered voters are.
A collapse in turnout among younger Republicans is a major driver of the GOP’s early-voting slump with low-propensity voters in North Carolina and Georgia.
Under-45 Republicans are showing little enthusiasm thus far, consistent with broader national polling.
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I find that the best way to view 2026 is a "de-alignment" more than anything. theargumentmag.com/p/the-maga-rea…
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Lakshya Jain retweeted
We're releasing a brand new poll on October 29, and @lxeagle17 is breaking down the results LIVE at 7 pm ET!
Plus, if you're a paid subscriber, you can join our live Q&A!
RSVP: luma.com/xt3uy8gq
Plus, if you're a paid subscriber, you can join our live Q&A!
RSVP: luma.com/xt3uy8gq
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Shomari Figures' AL-02 was seen as an autoflip for most of this cycle, but at @TheArgumentMag, we always thought this would be close, even when it was rated safe Republican.
The only two others who rated it as competitive in May were @ECaliberSeven and @VoteHub.
The only two others who rated it as competitive in May were @ECaliberSeven and @VoteHub.
🚨🚨🚨
@CookPolitical shifts 19 SEATS towards Democrats ⤵️
#KY06/#TX35 Lean R ➡️ TOSS-UP
#AKAL/#AL02/#AZ02/#CO04/#NV02/#TX23 Likely R ➡️ LEAN R
#AZ06/#CO08/#NC11/#TX34/#VA02/#WI03 Toss-Up ➡️ LEAN D
#NC03/#NC13 Solid R ➡️ Likely R
#CA13/#TX28 Lean D ➡️ Likely D
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@TheArgumentMag @ECaliberSeven @VoteHub Boebert's CO-04 was seen as a competitive race in our model (along with @VoteHub's) back in *July*, when it was also rated at safe Republican by everyone.
x.com/lxeagle17/stat…
x.com/lxeagle17/stat…
Diane, here's something we haven't seen before.
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Lakshya Jain retweeted
My favorite example of this: Don Young.
"If he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?"
"If he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?"
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I'll be interested in seeing how Wagner does because I flagged this a year ago, back when it was safe R for most prognosticators, as one to watch. The fundamentals always pointed to a competitive race, at the least
Even if Adam Wainwright doesn't run for Congress (as I expect he won't), I don't think people understand how vulnerable Ann Wagner is against a good challenger in a district that is 47% college educated, and now just Trump +8.
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Same logic for everyone getting shocked that Rob Wittman is suddenly in a competitive race in Trump +5 VA-01.
"If he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?"
x.com/lxeagle17/stat…
"If he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?"
x.com/lxeagle17/stat…
@realPrestonHill YMMV but no, Wittman is not a strong candidate any longer, and hasn't been one for a while.
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