This guy's insistence that he knows how 99% of Texas early voters voted when Texas doesn't even register voters by party is absolutely comical.
TEXAS 🗳️
Texas has now banked 5,105,300 early votes, with Republicans holding a 582,530 firewall.
The modelled split sits around 55% R / 44% D — a touch softer for Republicans than their 2024 share (56.0%), and a bit firmer for Democrats than 2022 (43.2%).
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Major-league pitches travel on a "predictable trajectory" is so wrong that it makes you think this tweet has to be a parody.
See, this is what I was talking about. This post is utterly baseless how does this make sense in any world?
Baseball hitters train for one predictable trajectory on a full toss. Put a baseball player in front of seam movement, and they wouldn't last 3 balls.
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I don't understand the point of this question. If the GOP loses the House, Mike Johnson will not be Speaker when it comes time to seat House members for the new Congress. He'll have no power to not seat anyone.
RAJU: So if Trump says 'Don't seat Democrats,' you'll resist him?
MIKE JOHNSON: I'll do my job as Speaker. The president has vowed of course that he wants to follow the law as well.
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Not the best timing for this story, given that the new NYT/Siena poll of Minnesota has Flanagan up on Tafoya 54-40.
Former “Sunday Night Football” sideline reporter Michele Tafoya has emerged as an unexpectedly formidable Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, forcing Democrats to fight for a seat they once expected to hold comfortably. wapo.st/4jGmVjq
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By "Sorry, I didn't know the exact year it opened," Travis means "Sorry I lied about going to Cheesecake Factory with my family when I was a kid."
1. We had it in DC and it was expensive when I was 18. 2. When it opened in Nashville, it was still expensive. Sorry, I didn’t know the exact year it opened. Appreciate the investigation, guys. It’s still high end and expensive for most people. Thanks for watching.
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Guy whose mother-in-law is named Lakshmi Chilikuri pretending that Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan are too tough to pronounce.
Vance's "I'm just a good old boy"'s act grows more tiresome and less believable by the day.
Vance's "I'm just a good old boy"'s act grows more tiresome and less believable by the day.
JD Vance says of the Middle East that it's "a region of the world made up of countries whose name I couldn't even pronounce"
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I have little doubt that Graham will end up winning - it is South Carolina, after all. But the fact that this is even a race is a reminder that on top of broader political swings, candidate quality also matters. Graham has no business in the Senate, and voters know that.
NYT/Siena poll | 10/19-10/26 LV
US Senate South Carolina 2026
🟦Annie Andrews 48%
🟥Darline Graham 48% (incumbent)
Link to poll: nytimes.com/2026/10/28/ups…
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It's not socially unacceptable to vote Republican in Texas or Iowa, let alone South Carolina, so the Bradley Effect cannot explain polling errors there.
You can run all kind of numbers and theories on why polling as been so wrong over the last decade.
You can cite how landlines are no longer around and how it's super easy to avoid pollsters now.
However, if you just want to guesstimate on how much a poll is probably undercutting or overcounting a party/candidate just figure out which party is less/more socially acceptable to support.
This is usually known as the Bradley/Wilder effect.
Respondents tell pollsters what they think is the socially acceptable answer. Smart pollsters tried to use "who do you think your neighbors will vote for?" to get around that effect, but it has limited impact.
Sure, they say they are going to vote for the minority candidate but then once in the voting booth they vote for the white guy.
Sure, they say they are going to vote for the drunk woman but once inside the voting booth they vote for the sober guy who survived a bullet to the head.
Sure, they are going to vote for the freak dsa candidate but once inside they vote for the steady AG that has been elected several times before.
The more the media or a party makes it socially unacceptable or only socially acceptable to support a party or candidate the bigger the polling miss will be most times.
It's pretty much peer pressure at work. It works in public but once behind closed doors the peer pressure evaporates and people vote for their best interests not what is or isbt socially acceptable. This is why we have secret ballots and why those who use peer pressure/bullying what to do away with a secret ballot.
Since the media and dems have made it as socially unacceptable as possible to support Trump and MAGA, I would imagine the polling miss this time around will be as big as it was in 16, 18, 20, 22 and 24.
And when there is a threat of doxxing or sending a mob to your workplace many just dont answer the pollsters, at all. So, the pollster miss the "shy voter" and they miss the "lying responders" leading to bigger misses.
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Tons of people said the prequels were terrible when they were released, for all the obvious reasons: wooden acting, clunky scripts, plodding storytelling, and Jar-Jar. They're viewed much more positively now than they were when released.
As an older millennial that was a teenager for these movies, I do not remember anybody saying the prequels sucked at the time.
That was social media revisionism by nerdy edgelords on social media 10 years later.
Episode I is a masterpiece (and Empire is still my favorite)
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The hardest-hit cricket balls have an exit speed under 90 mph. That's the average speed for a major-league hitter, while the best hitters are between 105-110 mph.
Baseball players need gloves to catch a soft ball, meanwhile cricketers take superhuman catches barehanded with a leather ball.
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Man of the people speaks.
Trump's affordability message: "You could even come to Mar-a-Lago. You'll be my guest. The problem is that for $5,000 the most you'll be able to buy is a hamburger and maybe a small dessert. I'm not even sure you could buy that! No, don't go there. It's not a good place if you're price conscious."
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What a weird post. If you've never heard about Cassavetes, it's because you don't know much about movies. Which is fine, but it's strange to act like it's some mystery.
OK, I'll bite. If John Cassavetes is so insanely influential and brilliant, why have I not heard about him until recently?
I've been on a side-quest with classic and esoteric movies, mostly through the Criterion collection. I've watched dozens of Criterion closet picks from filmmakers and actors I admire.
They pick Cassavetes films ALL THE TIME. Probably more than any other director except Scorsese. I haven't seen a single Cassavetes film. I don't think I've ever heard anyone talk about a Cassavetes film outside of those videos.
I'm not a slouch on film, I've got a pretty wide spread on what I've seen & what I appreciate. How has Cassavetes slipped through that net so completely for so long?
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"Arabs vote same as Israelis" tells you how Mike Huckabee views Arab Israelis.
Today is election day in Israel, which is a national holiday. All voting is in person, ID required. No mail-in or absentee ballots. Arabs vote same as Israelis. Contentious process, but it's a democracy-not many of those in this region!Community noteThe Arab voters are Israeli citizens. Listing them in contrast to Israelis is misconstruing the facts.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_citi…
cfr.org/backgrounders/…
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If as a pollster you have no real idea how to account for the Trump voters you think you're missing, rigging your Likely Voter model to massively overweight GOP voters is not a good answer.
It's possible Marist's sample of registered voters is totally flawed. But even so, there's no chance that likely voters in this election are going to be dramatically more Republican than registered voters.
It's possible Marist's sample of registered voters is totally flawed. But even so, there's no chance that likely voters in this election are going to be dramatically more Republican than registered voters.
Marist just released its final poll of Maine—& they're doubling down on their now-trademark gap between registered & likely voters.
—Jackson leads Collins 49% to 47% among LVs.
—He's up 53% to 44% among RVs.
(Marist's poll 3 weeks ago had Jackson leading 51/47 among RVs.)
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The funny thing about this is that Trump isn't defending the Cheesecake Factory's decor. He's saying it's offensive for Obama to compare Trump's White House to a Cheesecake Factory.
Trump is BIG MAD about Obama saying the White House now looks like Saddam opened a Cheesecake Factory: "He's not a smart guy. He's not smart at all ... for you to say it's a Cheesecake Factory, that just shows why you were a lousy president"
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It's odd that almost none of these comments talk about Cheesecake Factory's interior design, which is what Obama's joke was about. I like eating at CF: big menu and huge portions. But its interior design is a consciously whimsical postmodern riff on over-the-top "luxury."
Obama mocking Cheesecake Factory tells you everything about how out of touch political elites are. Growing up, eating there was a special occasion for my family, just as it is for millions of Americans today. Obama is telling on himself here.
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These tweets perplex me. In 2022, Biden was very unpopular in Texas. In 2026, Trump is unpopular in Texas. Why would rural turnout on Election Day be anywhere close to 2022? And Trump is much more unpopular than he was in 2018, so turnout won't be as high as then, either.
Basically if rurals vote at the exact same rate on e-day in 2022, we can expect about a Paxton+2.6 result.
If FatUglyRats numbers are correct.
If they show up at 2018 numbers, Paxton+1.8
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The more interesting aspect of this poll is that on almost every value, independents are closer to Dems than they are to Republicans.
New Gallup poll asks "which values the country most needs today?"
Out of a list of 12 values, Republicans put "patriotism" #1, for Dems it ranks dead last - by a lot.
Dems say "equality" is most needed, Republicans rank it 11th out of 12.
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