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NYT/Siena poll | 10/12-10/19 LV
US presidential primaries 2028
🟦Democratic
Kamala Harris 12%
Gavin Newsom 9%
Pete Buttigieg 7%
AOC 6%
Jon Ossoff 4%
Mark Kelly 3%
Another candidate 15%
Don’t know 45%
——
🟥Republican
JD Vance 33%
Marco Rubio 23%
Donald Trump 8%
Ron DeSantis 3%
Another candidate 6%
Don’t know 26%
nytimes.com/2026/10/24/us/…
US presidential primaries 2028
🟦Democratic
Kamala Harris 12%
Gavin Newsom 9%
Pete Buttigieg 7%
AOC 6%
Jon Ossoff 4%
Mark Kelly 3%
Another candidate 15%
Don’t know 45%
——
🟥Republican
JD Vance 33%
Marco Rubio 23%
Donald Trump 8%
Ron DeSantis 3%
Another candidate 6%
Don’t know 26%
nytimes.com/2026/10/24/us/…
31
26
183
129,991
CBS/YouGov US House estimate
✅🟦Democrats: 229
🟥Republicans: 206
✅🟦Democrats: 229
🟥Republicans: 206
CBS/YouGov poll | 10/21-10/23
(Likely voters)
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 53%
🟥Republican 45%
——
(Adults)
President Trump approval
❌Disapprove 61%
âś…Approve 39%
cbsnews.com/news/poll-hous…
5
1
21
1,644
CBS/YouGov poll | 10/21-10/23
(Likely voters)
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 53%
🟥Republican 45%
——
(Adults)
President Trump approval
❌Disapprove 61%
âś…Approve 39%
cbsnews.com/news/poll-hous…
(Likely voters)
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 53%
🟥Republican 45%
——
(Adults)
President Trump approval
❌Disapprove 61%
âś…Approve 39%
cbsnews.com/news/poll-hous…
3
8
35
4,686
ActiVote poll | 10/10-10/24 LV
Georgia Lt. Governor 2026
🟥Greg Dolezal 52.4%
🟦Josh McLaurin 47.6%
Link to poll: activote.net/polls/2026/ga-…
Georgia Lt. Governor 2026
🟥Greg Dolezal 52.4%
🟦Josh McLaurin 47.6%
Link to poll: activote.net/polls/2026/ga-…
2
3
19
3,355
Former President Barack Obama, quoted by Bloomberg, urging voters to throw out Republicans in the midterms
“Like it or not, we’re stuck with two more years of this, but we’re not stuck with a spineless Congress.”
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
“Like it or not, we’re stuck with two more years of this, but we’re not stuck with a spineless Congress.”
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
4
9
70
2,978
WSJ: Trump Announces Audi’s First-Ever U.S. Factory in Georgia
Audi will build its first-ever U.S. factory in Macon, Ga., President Trump announced Saturday, marking the latest move by a global automaker to focus on American buyers as sales fall off elsewhere in the world.
wsj.com/business/autos…
Audi will build its first-ever U.S. factory in Macon, Ga., President Trump announced Saturday, marking the latest move by a global automaker to focus on American buyers as sales fall off elsewhere in the world.
wsj.com/business/autos…
0
4
12
2,434
The Hill: Gavin Newsom Deploys National Fundraising Network
If California Gov. Gavin Newsom enters the 2028 presidential race, as many Democrats expect, he’ll walk in with an asset other White House hopefuls will inarguably envy: A small-dollar fundraising and organizing machine powered by a massive and ever-growing contact list of potential supporters across the country.
Even before last year’s successful Proposition 50 redistricting effort in his state, Newsom had amassed more than 17 million email addresses, and his advisers say it’s only multiplied exponentially since then as Democrats feverishly donated in large numbers to redraw California’s electoral maps.
That list — advisers declined to provide its current size — has already helped Newsom raise more than $6.8 million during the midterm election cycle.
thehill.com/policy/technol…
If California Gov. Gavin Newsom enters the 2028 presidential race, as many Democrats expect, he’ll walk in with an asset other White House hopefuls will inarguably envy: A small-dollar fundraising and organizing machine powered by a massive and ever-growing contact list of potential supporters across the country.
Even before last year’s successful Proposition 50 redistricting effort in his state, Newsom had amassed more than 17 million email addresses, and his advisers say it’s only multiplied exponentially since then as Democrats feverishly donated in large numbers to redraw California’s electoral maps.
That list — advisers declined to provide its current size — has already helped Newsom raise more than $6.8 million during the midterm election cycle.
thehill.com/policy/technol…
0
1
6
2,249
CNN: The Educational Divide Could Spell Trouble for Republicans
Republicans tend to run better among voters without a college degree than those with one, which has battered Democrats in recent presidential elections. But that same pattern could give Democrats a potentially decisive boost in next month’s midterms
Even as President Donald Trump’s approval rating craters among Americans with a college degree, history suggests those well-educated voters are virtually certain to constitute a slightly larger share of the electorate this year than in 2024. It’s the political equivalent of what economists call the “college premium” in wages
cnn.com/2026/10/25/pol…
Republicans tend to run better among voters without a college degree than those with one, which has battered Democrats in recent presidential elections. But that same pattern could give Democrats a potentially decisive boost in next month’s midterms
Even as President Donald Trump’s approval rating craters among Americans with a college degree, history suggests those well-educated voters are virtually certain to constitute a slightly larger share of the electorate this year than in 2024. It’s the political equivalent of what economists call the “college premium” in wages
cnn.com/2026/10/25/pol…
0
1
9
2,286
WaPo: Can Scott Colom Win in Mississippi’s Senate Race?
The formula for Colom to win is deceptively simple: He needs a huge turnout from Black voters and about a quarter of the White vote. Doesn’t sound that hard, yet no Democrat has solved the problem in Mississippi in more than 40 years, and no African American has won statewide since Reconstruction.
This year the stakes are especially high, with control of the Senate in the balance and President Donald Trump’s agenda riding on it. Across the nation, deep red states have shifted in recent weeks and become unexpectedly competitive battlegrounds — nowhere more remarkably than in Mississippi.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/…
The formula for Colom to win is deceptively simple: He needs a huge turnout from Black voters and about a quarter of the White vote. Doesn’t sound that hard, yet no Democrat has solved the problem in Mississippi in more than 40 years, and no African American has won statewide since Reconstruction.
This year the stakes are especially high, with control of the Senate in the balance and President Donald Trump’s agenda riding on it. Across the nation, deep red states have shifted in recent weeks and become unexpectedly competitive battlegrounds — nowhere more remarkably than in Mississippi.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/…
0
2
26
2,954
WaPo: About One in Five Trump Voters No Longer Back Him
The midterm campaign is being fought in areas President Donald Trump carried in the last election, and largely among voters who have supported him in the past but have soured on his presidency.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/…
The midterm campaign is being fought in areas President Donald Trump carried in the last election, and largely among voters who have supported him in the past but have soured on his presidency.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/…
0
0
16
3,771
CNN: Economic Woes Transform the Midwest Into a Battleground
A decade after the Trump era began, when he first turned Midwestern political battlegrounds into reliably Republican states, the fallout from policies of his second term have rippled through the agriculture sector and broader economies across the Great Plains and the Rust Belt.
Iowa and Ohio, which have not been competitive since former President Barack Obama was on the ballot, are in play. And ruby-red states like Kansas, Nebraska and Indiana are not exempt. The shift is happening up and down the ballot, with tight contests for the House, Senate and governor blanketing the middle of the country.
cnn.com/2026/10/25/pol…
A decade after the Trump era began, when he first turned Midwestern political battlegrounds into reliably Republican states, the fallout from policies of his second term have rippled through the agriculture sector and broader economies across the Great Plains and the Rust Belt.
Iowa and Ohio, which have not been competitive since former President Barack Obama was on the ballot, are in play. And ruby-red states like Kansas, Nebraska and Indiana are not exempt. The shift is happening up and down the ballot, with tight contests for the House, Senate and governor blanketing the middle of the country.
cnn.com/2026/10/25/pol…
0
2
9
2,321
NPR: Democrats Hope Independents Can Help Senate Odds
Dan Osborn is one of four independents running for Senate in states President Trump won handily, including Idaho, South Dakota and Montana. Buoyed by the president’s sinking approval ratings and public frustration over affordability, independent candidates argue they bring a winning case to voters.
It is an argument that some Democrats hope will resonate with voters as the party looks to retake control of Congress, betting that these candidates can help topple Republicans in parts of the country where their own brand is hurting.
npr.org/2026/10/25/nx-…
Dan Osborn is one of four independents running for Senate in states President Trump won handily, including Idaho, South Dakota and Montana. Buoyed by the president’s sinking approval ratings and public frustration over affordability, independent candidates argue they bring a winning case to voters.
It is an argument that some Democrats hope will resonate with voters as the party looks to retake control of Congress, betting that these candidates can help topple Republicans in parts of the country where their own brand is hurting.
npr.org/2026/10/25/nx-…
1
1
9
3,240
NYT: An Iowa Republican’s Unusual Connection to the Kochs
If there is one thing that Zach Lahn, the Republican nominee for governor of Iowa, definitely does not want to talk about, it’s his connection to the Koch family.
To hear Mr. Lahn tell it, he is a self-made businessman, a father of seven and a farmer running against powerful corporate interests. He has campaigned on his financial independence, pointing to the $2.5 million he lent himself during the primary.
He rode that cash and a right-leaning brand of prairie populism to the nomination, defeating President Trump’s preferred pick in the primary. Now he is facing Rob Sand, the Democratic state auditor, in a race that Democrats view as one of their best shots to flip a governorship.
But there is a more complicated tale of Mr. Lahn’s rise that is interwoven with the Kochs, one of America’s richest and most influential political dynasties.
nytimes.com/2026/10/25/us/…
If there is one thing that Zach Lahn, the Republican nominee for governor of Iowa, definitely does not want to talk about, it’s his connection to the Koch family.
To hear Mr. Lahn tell it, he is a self-made businessman, a father of seven and a farmer running against powerful corporate interests. He has campaigned on his financial independence, pointing to the $2.5 million he lent himself during the primary.
He rode that cash and a right-leaning brand of prairie populism to the nomination, defeating President Trump’s preferred pick in the primary. Now he is facing Rob Sand, the Democratic state auditor, in a race that Democrats view as one of their best shots to flip a governorship.
But there is a more complicated tale of Mr. Lahn’s rise that is interwoven with the Kochs, one of America’s richest and most influential political dynasties.
nytimes.com/2026/10/25/us/…
0
3
18
4,402
NYT: Latinos Are Now America’s Most Important Swing Voters
In the 1990s, politicians fought for the support of soccer moms. In the 2010s, they competed for votes from white working-class voters. Now it is clear: Latinos are the most important swing voters of the 2020s
Democrats have made gains with Latinos over the past two years, winning back trust with a crucial group of voters who helped fuel President Trump’s return to the White House in 2024. Latino voters now favor Democrats over Republicans by 30 percentage points, according to the latest New York Times/Siena poll
nytimes.com/2026/10/25/us/…
In the 1990s, politicians fought for the support of soccer moms. In the 2010s, they competed for votes from white working-class voters. Now it is clear: Latinos are the most important swing voters of the 2020s
Democrats have made gains with Latinos over the past two years, winning back trust with a crucial group of voters who helped fuel President Trump’s return to the White House in 2024. Latino voters now favor Democrats over Republicans by 30 percentage points, according to the latest New York Times/Siena poll
nytimes.com/2026/10/25/us/…
1
6
60
3,380
NYT: Introducing a New Way to Understand the Election
When the dust settles on election night, the story won’t simply be about who won, but who decided the outcome: Which demographic groups shifted the most, stayed home or delivered the decisive votes to the winners?
This year, we’re going to tell the demographic story of the election as we never have before. We will publish a new comprehensive portrait of how each of the key demographic groups in the country voted, called Times Voter Trends. It will break down estimates for the results of U.S. House and Senate elections by age, race, education and gender in every state in the country.
nytimes.com/2026/10/25/ups…
When the dust settles on election night, the story won’t simply be about who won, but who decided the outcome: Which demographic groups shifted the most, stayed home or delivered the decisive votes to the winners?
This year, we’re going to tell the demographic story of the election as we never have before. We will publish a new comprehensive portrait of how each of the key demographic groups in the country voted, called Times Voter Trends. It will break down estimates for the results of U.S. House and Senate elections by age, race, education and gender in every state in the country.
nytimes.com/2026/10/25/ups…
0
5
26
2,681
Focaldata poll | Mid-October LV
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 53% (new high)
🟥Republican 44%
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 53% (new high)
🟥Republican 44%
3
12
116
4,600
NYT/Siena polls | 10/16-10/22 LV
US House 2026 | Pennsylvania congressional races
PA-01
🟦Bob Harvie 48%
🟥Brian Fitzpatrick 46% (incumbent)
——
PA-07
🟦Bob Brooks 49%
🟥Ryan Mackenzie 44% (incumbent)
——
PA-08
🟦Paige Congnetti 51%
🟥Rob Bresnahan 46% (incumbent)
——
PA-10
bent)
🟦Janelle Stelson 48%
US House 2026 | Pennsylvania congressional races
PA-01
🟦Bob Harvie 48%
🟥Brian Fitzpatrick 46% (incumbent)
——
PA-07
🟦Bob Brooks 49%
🟥Ryan Mackenzie 44% (incumbent)
——
PA-08
🟦Paige Congnetti 51%
🟥Rob Bresnahan 46% (incumbent)
——
PA-10
bent)
🟦Janelle Stelson 48%
NYT/Siena poll | 10/16-10/22 LV
US House 2026 | Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district
(Trump +8, Rob Bresnahan +2 | 2024)
🟦Paige Cognetti 51%
🟥Rob Bresnahan 46% (incumbent)
12
22
174
13,453
NYT/Siena poll | 10/16-10/22 LV
US House 2026 | Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district
(Trump +8, Rob Bresnahan +2 | 2024)
🟦Paige Cognetti 51%
🟥Rob Bresnahan 46% (incumbent)
US House 2026 | Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district
(Trump +8, Rob Bresnahan +2 | 2024)
🟦Paige Cognetti 51%
🟥Rob Bresnahan 46% (incumbent)
3
16
151
14,669
NYT/Siena poll | 10/16-10/22 LV
US House 2026 | Pennsylvania’s 7th congressional district (Trump +3 | 2024)
🟦Bob Brooks 49%
🟥Ryan McKenzie 44% (incumbent)
US House 2026 | Pennsylvania’s 7th congressional district (Trump +3 | 2024)
🟦Bob Brooks 49%
🟥Ryan McKenzie 44% (incumbent)
2
5
90
4,780
NYT/Siena poll | 10/16-10/22 LV
US House 2026 | Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district (Trump +5 | 2024)
🟥Scott Perry 48% (incumbent)
🟦Janelle Stelson 48%
US House 2026 | Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district (Trump +5 | 2024)
🟥Scott Perry 48% (incumbent)
🟦Janelle Stelson 48%
6
6
72
6,933
