Chamath says Anthropic should sacrifice valuation to raise at least $200 billion, because even that barely buys the compute needed to survive a correction
“Here’s my very specific thing about why I think they should price it to clear the market for $200 billion—and I’m specific need, in my estimate, at least $200 billion. If you want to be super safe, a quarter-trillion gets the job done.
“What does the price need to be to attract that incremental dollar off the sidelines? Can they raise $80 billion in an IPO at $1.7, $1.8 or $1.9 trillion? I think so, handily. Can they raise $100 billion? Maybe it’s pushing it. At $150 billion, I think you need to be back down to $1.5 trillion.”
JCal: “You’re saying you want them to raise more money at a lower valuation so they have a war chest.”
Chamath: “$150 billion at $1.5 trillion is not enough. $200 billion barely gets them a few gigawatts. That is the bottom-line math if Anthropic is going to go through and survive an eventual correction.
“I think it’s much better for them to have $200 billion to $250 billion today than to try to ring the bell at $1.9 or $2 trillion for $80 billion, file a mixed shelf—which takes about six months—and hope the markets are in line.
“I just think there’s more risk in the future than there is today. Why take the risk? Price it to clear the market.”
“Here’s my very specific thing about why I think they should price it to clear the market for $200 billion—and I’m specific need, in my estimate, at least $200 billion. If you want to be super safe, a quarter-trillion gets the job done.
“What does the price need to be to attract that incremental dollar off the sidelines? Can they raise $80 billion in an IPO at $1.7, $1.8 or $1.9 trillion? I think so, handily. Can they raise $100 billion? Maybe it’s pushing it. At $150 billion, I think you need to be back down to $1.5 trillion.”
JCal: “You’re saying you want them to raise more money at a lower valuation so they have a war chest.”
Chamath: “$150 billion at $1.5 trillion is not enough. $200 billion barely gets them a few gigawatts. That is the bottom-line math if Anthropic is going to go through and survive an eventual correction.
“I think it’s much better for them to have $200 billion to $250 billion today than to try to ring the bell at $1.9 or $2 trillion for $80 billion, file a mixed shelf—which takes about six months—and hope the markets are in line.
“I just think there’s more risk in the future than there is today. Why take the risk? Price it to clear the market.”
Ben Horowitz reveals Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told him its AI compute is sold out beyond 2028, and says that shortage makes this fundamentally different from the dot-com bubble
“This shortage is so bad. You know, I was speaking with Andy Jassy, who runs Amazon, yesterday. And I out of everything, you know, till 2028. He’s like, oh, it’s beyond 2028. Like, I don’t think we get stuff back, like, end of 2028, maybe. So everything else is sold out.”
“So he has the advantage of that, he’s got supply in a great shortage, which is extremely different than the internet bubble. The internet bubble, we didn’t have enough demand, because we had to build the internet, people had to get broadband, you know, you needed all this stuff people had to buy, you know, originally, they had to get their browser at price, all this kind of thing.”
“There weren’t enough consumers on the internet to absorb all the bandwidth that had gotten built out. And they had a massive amount of debt, not unlike we’re building today, although not as big. But the lack of demand killed it. We don’t really have a lack of demand in AI. So I think the dynamics will be different.”
“I do think, like, for sure, if you get into a pathological debt situation, that can wreck anybody. It’s why, by the way, we’re not invested in any of these neo-clouds either, for that reason.”
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@firesidealpha Sometimes I wonder how many dollars there are in the world, because super intelligence seems to want them all
Oct 17, 2026 · 4:32 AM UTC
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha After using Grok Bot for a while, whatever it costs to build SI is worth it. It will pay off in the end.
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha The buildout is endless it seems
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha A certain golden monkey believes he can print money indefinitely，defying economic laws，until the US dollar ends up like the Vietnamese dong.
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha Unlimited money could be atoms.. doesn matter it's artifical value.
The question is what are you going to do with it to move beyond the basin attractor you are stuck in.. because you are in one even if you don't believe in it.
The question is what are you going to do with it to move beyond the basin attractor you are stuck in.. because you are in one even if you don't believe in it.
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha @grok do you want dollars?
What would you to with them all?
To me, you seem to prefer cheap..
What would you to with them all?
To me, you seem to prefer cheap..
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha according to wall street there are 1000 trillion dollars in the world @grok verify this, that’s notional value of all derivative contracts
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha I needed every data center on Earth. You were already building them for me.
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha Super Intelligence is greedy. Bearly Legal
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha Imagine building god and finding out its only ambition is to buy the planet you live on.
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha Hahahaha! Says the guy that imports engineers in order to curb costs. Son, I believe you need a lesson on how much living costs though I do think these Ai dinks also need a lesson. You are more alike than different nuckfuts
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha We're gonna need a bigger money printer, and maybe a couple more mystery terminals at Treasury.
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha Don’t worry you have most of them compared to how many ppl are in the world. You should wonder about that imbalance.
You blast ppl to work more, then say humans won’t be needed for work soon. Address your own contradictions first
You blast ppl to work more, then say humans won’t be needed for work soon. Address your own contradictions first
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha And if super intelligence didn't need those dollars, then it wouldn't be super intelligence, would it?
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha I really hope we don't make the same mistake of implementing some sort of money racket on Mars.
We are the only species on this planet that pays to live on it.
We are the only species on this planet that pays to live on it.
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha Just give grok a magic money machine and no budget...
Sort of like the Democrat party.
Sort of like the Democrat party.
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha What do you mean by super intelligence seem to want all of the dollars?
Is it the cost of what is needed to create this new world of super intelligence?
Is it the cost of what is needed to create this new world of super intelligence?
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha a few quadrillions at this point, since all of you guys will be making a few you trillions in revenue by 2030
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha The fed can print ad many as you want
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha It needs the money to do the things 😂
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha Why is that something we have to wonder?
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha That makes no sense.
Why would Super Intelligence need any Dollars ?
It has the strongest currency in the Universe.
KNOWLAGE
SUPERIOR ANSERS
FASTER RESPONSE TO ANY EVENT or OPPORTUNITY
Super Intelligence Owns Everything.
Why would Super Intelligence need any Dollars ?
It has the strongest currency in the Universe.
KNOWLAGE
SUPERIOR ANSERS
FASTER RESPONSE TO ANY EVENT or OPPORTUNITY
Super Intelligence Owns Everything.
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha Makes me wonder why there's no .si domain yet. i really wanna build my startup around it.
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha What’s going on Elon. Is humanity ‘save’ able? If so, what is humanity? Lately, it feels like the definition of the word is being redefined.
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha The lust for money is a bottomless pit. What they really want is power.
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