Chamath says Anthropic should sacrifice valuation to raise at least $200 billion, because even that barely buys the compute needed to survive a correction
“Here’s my very specific thing about why I think they should price it to clear the market for $200 billion—and I’m specific need, in my estimate, at least $200 billion. If you want to be super safe, a quarter-trillion gets the job done.
“What does the price need to be to attract that incremental dollar off the sidelines? Can they raise $80 billion in an IPO at $1.7, $1.8 or $1.9 trillion? I think so, handily. Can they raise $100 billion? Maybe it’s pushing it. At $150 billion, I think you need to be back down to $1.5 trillion.”
JCal: “You’re saying you want them to raise more money at a lower valuation so they have a war chest.”
Chamath: “$150 billion at $1.5 trillion is not enough. $200 billion barely gets them a few gigawatts. That is the bottom-line math if Anthropic is going to go through and survive an eventual correction.
“I think it’s much better for them to have $200 billion to $250 billion today than to try to ring the bell at $1.9 or $2 trillion for $80 billion, file a mixed shelf—which takes about six months—and hope the markets are in line.
“I just think there’s more risk in the future than there is today. Why take the risk? Price it to clear the market.”
“Here’s my very specific thing about why I think they should price it to clear the market for $200 billion—and I’m specific need, in my estimate, at least $200 billion. If you want to be super safe, a quarter-trillion gets the job done.
“What does the price need to be to attract that incremental dollar off the sidelines? Can they raise $80 billion in an IPO at $1.7, $1.8 or $1.9 trillion? I think so, handily. Can they raise $100 billion? Maybe it’s pushing it. At $150 billion, I think you need to be back down to $1.5 trillion.”
JCal: “You’re saying you want them to raise more money at a lower valuation so they have a war chest.”
Chamath: “$150 billion at $1.5 trillion is not enough. $200 billion barely gets them a few gigawatts. That is the bottom-line math if Anthropic is going to go through and survive an eventual correction.
“I think it’s much better for them to have $200 billion to $250 billion today than to try to ring the bell at $1.9 or $2 trillion for $80 billion, file a mixed shelf—which takes about six months—and hope the markets are in line.
“I just think there’s more risk in the future than there is today. Why take the risk? Price it to clear the market.”
Ben Horowitz reveals Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told him its AI compute is sold out beyond 2028, and says that shortage makes this fundamentally different from the dot-com bubble
“This shortage is so bad. You know, I was speaking with Andy Jassy, who runs Amazon, yesterday. And I out of everything, you know, till 2028. He’s like, oh, it’s beyond 2028. Like, I don’t think we get stuff back, like, end of 2028, maybe. So everything else is sold out.”
“So he has the advantage of that, he’s got supply in a great shortage, which is extremely different than the internet bubble. The internet bubble, we didn’t have enough demand, because we had to build the internet, people had to get broadband, you know, you needed all this stuff people had to buy, you know, originally, they had to get their browser at price, all this kind of thing.”
“There weren’t enough consumers on the internet to absorb all the bandwidth that had gotten built out. And they had a massive amount of debt, not unlike we’re building today, although not as big. But the lack of demand killed it. We don’t really have a lack of demand in AI. So I think the dynamics will be different.”
“I do think, like, for sure, if you get into a pathological debt situation, that can wreck anybody. It’s why, by the way, we’re not invested in any of these neo-clouds either, for that reason.”
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@firesidealpha Sometimes I wonder how many dollars there are in the world, because super intelligence seems to want them all
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@elonmusk @firesidealpha The fed can print ad many as you want
Oct 17, 2026 · 5:40 AM UTC
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