Auli retweeted
Single stock perps (SSPs) are here. And they're a truly great product. You don’t need to pay rollover fees like with futures, they’re simpler to trade than options, and you can go short just as easy as you can go long.
This is one of the most consequential products we’ve be more proud of the team that worked for over a year to bring them to life. Just this morning, since the stealth launch, our users traded over $300m.
Grateful to be the ones bringing these to America in a regulated way 💚
This is one of the most consequential products we’ve be more proud of the team that worked for over a year to bring them to life. Just this morning, since the stealth launch, our users traded over $300m.
Grateful to be the ones bringing these to America in a regulated way 💚
110
120
3,330
627,194
Auli retweeted
Big night for election markets on Kalshi (~3x the 2024 presidential)
21
20
677
27,710
Auli retweeted
Kalshi absolutely dominated election night with ~$2.6B in midterm trading volume.
That’s more than 4x the ~$600M traded on Polymarket.
That’s more than 4x the ~$600M traded on Polymarket.
36
34
302
67,799
Auli retweeted
Markets over noise.
For far too long, we’ve relied on polls, pundits, and experts to tell us what America thinks.
But the truth doesn’t belong to a select few.
It belongs to everyone.
Prediction markets put power in the hands of the people, turning millions of independent ive view of the future.
No gatekeepers. No central authority deciding what’s true.
Just real people putting their conviction behind what they believe on a free market.
Because the best way to understand what America thinks isn’t to handpick a few voices and give them a megaphone.
It’s to let the market speak.
For far too long, we’ve relied on polls, pundits, and experts to tell us what America thinks.
But the truth doesn’t belong to a select few.
It belongs to everyone.
Prediction markets put power in the hands of the people, turning millions of independent ive view of the future.
No gatekeepers. No central authority deciding what’s true.
Just real people putting their conviction behind what they believe on a free market.
Because the best way to understand what America thinks isn’t to handpick a few voices and give them a megaphone.
It’s to let the market speak.
51
80
1,120
224,857
joining Kalshi last year was the best decision of my life
i'll always remember my call with Tarek before i joined:
"show me what you're working on right now. show me something you did this week that you're proud of"
from day one it was clear i had joined a generational company would only hire people who could get shit done
proud and excited to keep building at the frontier every day
onwards
i'll always remember my call with Tarek before i joined:
"show me what you're working on right now. show me something you did this week that you're proud of"
from day one it was clear i had joined a generational company would only hire people who could get shit done
proud and excited to keep building at the frontier every day
onwards
Kalshi just raised an additional $1B, valuing the company at $40B. This will help us expand into stocks, compute, indices, and institutional.
Tomorrow marks 8 years since we got accepted into YC and the journey began.
The odds of a kid from Lebanon getting here were pretty low.
reat, but very challenging. We went through war. We had bombs explode in front of my house. I watched brilliant people’s lives destroyed for reasons beyond their control.
Lebanon is an unpredictable country. That unpredictability made it hard to plan for success. And yet despite it all, my mom sacrificed everything to give me and my brother the chance to go back to the US.
I found my refuge in two things: anime and math. Especially math.
I loved math because it calmed me. It was the opposite of unpredictable: clear, deterministic, orderly, and consistent. The proof is either right or wrong. I find that elegant and beautiful.
I was lucky.
I made it to my dream school, MIT (largely thanks to my mom), and my love for math quickly translated to a love for statistics, probability, and markets.
I love markets for a lot of the same reasons. Their incentives are clear: you get rewarded for being right and for pursuing knowledge. They are effective weighting machines for people’s opinions. They provide an incentive to be truthful, because they separate good information from bad information. They let people challenge the consensus and be rewarded for being right.
IMO, Hayek, Surowiecki, Hanson, Tetlock were the founding fathers of prediction markets. The more I read them, the more obsessed I got with the idea of applying market-based pricing to more things.
Markets bring rigor and critical thinking to more questions. And in an increasingly polarized and information-positioned word, I believe we need that more than ever.
Markets would also let people predict and manage more things outside of their control. And the world was becoming increasingly more unpredictable, and more like Lebanon, not less.
That love for markets got Luana and me to build Kalshi.
At first, it was mostly an idea we couldn’t stop talking about. We didn’t have much money. Luana’s sister bought the Kalshi domain name for us (for ~$1.7k). We moved to SF to get started, and embarked on a long, uncertain journey to build a regulated exchange.
The paranoia and anxiety from my childhood never left me. Even when things are going well, I think about what could go wrong. When people trust you with their money, that instinct serves a purpose.
I wanted us to build something that would hold up under pressure.
The first principle we defined at the company: regulatory-first. We worked with regulators for years before we listed a single market. We took every step to do things the right way and always asked for approval before proceeding. It was very hard at times, especially when we were being overtaken by competitors, but we believe doing things the right way matters.
Luana and I aren’t the only ones.
Our team put years of their lives into something far from certain. That’s especially true of Lior, Brandon, Rainer, Luis, Xavier, and Josef, who stuck with us for years. They believed when there was little to point to. And they stuck with us no matter how long it took. Kalshi is the result of an arduous journey through a long desert where, at times, most people didn’t understand why we were making the walk.
Many people still don’t understand what we’re doing and some disagree with us. Markets have historically taken time to be understood and accepted by some. But while not always obvious, their benefits are vast: capital markets help allocate capital and derivative markets help predict and manage uncertainty.
I firmly believe in these benefits, and that’s why I am dedicating my life to building this market.
Markets have caused issues many times in the past, and they certainly can present harms (manipulation, insiders, and addictive behaviors). These harms are more acute for certain types of markets (sports, short-term options, etc.) than others. It’s why I believe that guardrails need to exist and why we have taken the approach we have taken. We have consistently prioritized thinking critically about the risks and building the appropriate safeguards, sometimes beyond what the regulators require us to do. Many believe more needs to be done, and that’s a conversation I welcome.
Over time, I believe more people will see what we see: markets can help us get smarter and manage the future with more rigor, more precision, and more certainty than we have today.
To our tens of millions of users: you have made Kalshi bigger than anything Luana and I could have possibly imagined. Thank you for trusting us and thank you for coming along on the journey. I feel a strong responsibility to build a company worthy of that trust.
I am so lucky to spend my life building something I love. I hope everyone finds something they care about that much. Something that keeps you curious. Something that pushes you to your limits. Something that may put you at odds with the status quo. Something worth the hard days.
For me, it’s still markets. The more I learn, the more I want to understand.
99
4
486
28,865
Auli retweeted
I joined Kalshi a little over four years ago.
The exchange was live. There were almost no users. No one cared about us.
But I believed deeply in the vision: give anyone the ability to express a view, hedge a risk, or use markets to understand what’s likely to happen. On elieve it didn’t already exist. I knew it had to.
There were about 20 people. Tarek and Luana were extremely smart, with huge ambitions. Meeting the rest of the team convinced me this was where I wanted to be.
Before I accepted, Tarek asked me to go for a walk on a Saturday. He pulled out a list and rattled off all the grueling things I’d be signing up for.
I told him I was ready. We agreed on a number on the spot, shook hands, and started the journey of a lifetime.
Since then, I’ve touched about every part of the company. These days, I focus on growth. It’s a lot more fun when the line goes up. For a long time, ours went sideways.
Market-maker partnerships fell through. We went through painful layoffs. Election markets were blocked, and we fought in court to get them live.
Believing something should exist and bringing it to life are very different things.
Even when we could barely get anyone to trade, Tarek and Luana were talking about building one of the most important financial exchanges in the world.
We just announced another $1B in funding at a $40B valuation.
$40B is a nice number on a piece of paper. What means more to me is the millions of people using prediction markets. The infrastructure we’ve built. The team we’ve assembled. How much closer we are to the vision that made me want to join.
I’m grateful to Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara for bringing me in, to everyone I’ve built alongside, and to the users who’ve made this possible.
Four years later, I believe in this more than ever. There’s still so much left to build.
The exchange was live. There were almost no users. No one cared about us.
But I believed deeply in the vision: give anyone the ability to express a view, hedge a risk, or use markets to understand what’s likely to happen. On elieve it didn’t already exist. I knew it had to.
There were about 20 people. Tarek and Luana were extremely smart, with huge ambitions. Meeting the rest of the team convinced me this was where I wanted to be.
Before I accepted, Tarek asked me to go for a walk on a Saturday. He pulled out a list and rattled off all the grueling things I’d be signing up for.
I told him I was ready. We agreed on a number on the spot, shook hands, and started the journey of a lifetime.
Since then, I’ve touched about every part of the company. These days, I focus on growth. It’s a lot more fun when the line goes up. For a long time, ours went sideways.
Market-maker partnerships fell through. We went through painful layoffs. Election markets were blocked, and we fought in court to get them live.
Believing something should exist and bringing it to life are very different things.
Even when we could barely get anyone to trade, Tarek and Luana were talking about building one of the most important financial exchanges in the world.
We just announced another $1B in funding at a $40B valuation.
$40B is a nice number on a piece of paper. What means more to me is the millions of people using prediction markets. The infrastructure we’ve built. The team we’ve assembled. How much closer we are to the vision that made me want to join.
I’m grateful to Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara for bringing me in, to everyone I’ve built alongside, and to the users who’ve made this possible.
Four years later, I believe in this more than ever. There’s still so much left to build.
Kalshi just raised an additional $1B, valuing the company at $40B. This will help us expand into stocks, compute, indices, and institutional.
Tomorrow marks 8 years since we got accepted into YC and the journey began.
The odds of a kid from Lebanon getting here were pretty low.
reat, but very challenging. We went through war. We had bombs explode in front of my house. I watched brilliant people’s lives destroyed for reasons beyond their control.
Lebanon is an unpredictable country. That unpredictability made it hard to plan for success. And yet despite it all, my mom sacrificed everything to give me and my brother the chance to go back to the US.
I found my refuge in two things: anime and math. Especially math.
I loved math because it calmed me. It was the opposite of unpredictable: clear, deterministic, orderly, and consistent. The proof is either right or wrong. I find that elegant and beautiful.
I was lucky.
I made it to my dream school, MIT (largely thanks to my mom), and my love for math quickly translated to a love for statistics, probability, and markets.
I love markets for a lot of the same reasons. Their incentives are clear: you get rewarded for being right and for pursuing knowledge. They are effective weighting machines for people’s opinions. They provide an incentive to be truthful, because they separate good information from bad information. They let people challenge the consensus and be rewarded for being right.
IMO, Hayek, Surowiecki, Hanson, Tetlock were the founding fathers of prediction markets. The more I read them, the more obsessed I got with the idea of applying market-based pricing to more things.
Markets bring rigor and critical thinking to more questions. And in an increasingly polarized and information-positioned word, I believe we need that more than ever.
Markets would also let people predict and manage more things outside of their control. And the world was becoming increasingly more unpredictable, and more like Lebanon, not less.
That love for markets got Luana and me to build Kalshi.
At first, it was mostly an idea we couldn’t stop talking about. We didn’t have much money. Luana’s sister bought the Kalshi domain name for us (for ~$1.7k). We moved to SF to get started, and embarked on a long, uncertain journey to build a regulated exchange.
The paranoia and anxiety from my childhood never left me. Even when things are going well, I think about what could go wrong. When people trust you with their money, that instinct serves a purpose.
I wanted us to build something that would hold up under pressure.
The first principle we defined at the company: regulatory-first. We worked with regulators for years before we listed a single market. We took every step to do things the right way and always asked for approval before proceeding. It was very hard at times, especially when we were being overtaken by competitors, but we believe doing things the right way matters.
Luana and I aren’t the only ones.
Our team put years of their lives into something far from certain. That’s especially true of Lior, Brandon, Rainer, Luis, Xavier, and Josef, who stuck with us for years. They believed when there was little to point to. And they stuck with us no matter how long it took. Kalshi is the result of an arduous journey through a long desert where, at times, most people didn’t understand why we were making the walk.
Many people still don’t understand what we’re doing and some disagree with us. Markets have historically taken time to be understood and accepted by some. But while not always obvious, their benefits are vast: capital markets help allocate capital and derivative markets help predict and manage uncertainty.
I firmly believe in these benefits, and that’s why I am dedicating my life to building this market.
Markets have caused issues many times in the past, and they certainly can present harms (manipulation, insiders, and addictive behaviors). These harms are more acute for certain types of markets (sports, short-term options, etc.) than others. It’s why I believe that guardrails need to exist and why we have taken the approach we have taken. We have consistently prioritized thinking critically about the risks and building the appropriate safeguards, sometimes beyond what the regulators require us to do. Many believe more needs to be done, and that’s a conversation I welcome.
Over time, I believe more people will see what we see: markets can help us get smarter and manage the future with more rigor, more precision, and more certainty than we have today.
To our tens of millions of users: you have made Kalshi bigger than anything Luana and I could have possibly imagined. Thank you for trusting us and thank you for coming along on the journey. I feel a strong responsibility to build a company worthy of that trust.
I am so lucky to spend my life building something I love. I hope everyone finds something they care about that much. Something that keeps you curious. Something that pushes you to your limits. Something that may put you at odds with the status quo. Something worth the hard days.
For me, it’s still markets. The more I learn, the more I want to understand.
42
14
439
35,093
Auli retweeted
Kalshi just raised an additional $1B, valuing the company at $40B. This will help us expand into stocks, compute, indices, and institutional.
Tomorrow marks 8 years since we got accepted into YC and the journey began.
The odds of a kid from Lebanon getting here were pretty low.
reat, but very challenging. We went through war. We had bombs explode in front of my house. I watched brilliant people’s lives destroyed for reasons beyond their control.
Lebanon is an unpredictable country. That unpredictability made it hard to plan for success. And yet despite it all, my mom sacrificed everything to give me and my brother the chance to go back to the US.
I found my refuge in two things: anime and math. Especially math.
I loved math because it calmed me. It was the opposite of unpredictable: clear, deterministic, orderly, and consistent. The proof is either right or wrong. I find that elegant and beautiful.
I was lucky.
I made it to my dream school, MIT (largely thanks to my mom), and my love for math quickly translated to a love for statistics, probability, and markets.
I love markets for a lot of the same reasons. Their incentives are clear: you get rewarded for being right and for pursuing knowledge. They are effective weighting machines for people’s opinions. They provide an incentive to be truthful, because they separate good information from bad information. They let people challenge the consensus and be rewarded for being right.
IMO, Hayek, Surowiecki, Hanson, Tetlock were the founding fathers of prediction markets. The more I read them, the more obsessed I got with the idea of applying market-based pricing to more things.
Markets bring rigor and critical thinking to more questions. And in an increasingly polarized and information-positioned word, I believe we need that more than ever.
Markets would also let people predict and manage more things outside of their control. And the world was becoming increasingly more unpredictable, and more like Lebanon, not less.
That love for markets got Luana and me to build Kalshi.
At first, it was mostly an idea we couldn’t stop talking about. We didn’t have much money. Luana’s sister bought the Kalshi domain name for us (for ~$1.7k). We moved to SF to get started, and embarked on a long, uncertain journey to build a regulated exchange.
The paranoia and anxiety from my childhood never left me. Even when things are going well, I think about what could go wrong. When people trust you with their money, that instinct serves a purpose.
I wanted us to build something that would hold up under pressure.
The first principle we defined at the company: regulatory-first. We worked with regulators for years before we listed a single market. We took every step to do things the right way and always asked for approval before proceeding. It was very hard at times, especially when we were being overtaken by competitors, but we believe doing things the right way matters.
Luana and I aren’t the only ones.
Our team put years of their lives into something far from certain. That’s especially true of Lior, Brandon, Rainer, Luis, Xavier, and Josef, who stuck with us for years. They believed when there was little to point to. And they stuck with us no matter how long it took. Kalshi is the result of an arduous journey through a long desert where, at times, most people didn’t understand why we were making the walk.
Many people still don’t understand what we’re doing and some disagree with us. Markets have historically taken time to be understood and accepted by some. But while not always obvious, their benefits are vast: capital markets help allocate capital and derivative markets help predict and manage uncertainty.
I firmly believe in these benefits, and that’s why I am dedicating my life to building this market.
Markets have caused issues many times in the past, and they certainly can present harms (manipulation, insiders, and addictive behaviors). These harms are more acute for certain types of markets (sports, short-term options, etc.) than others. It’s why I believe that guardrails need to exist and why we have taken the approach we have taken. We have consistently prioritized thinking critically about the risks and building the appropriate safeguards, sometimes beyond what the regulators require us to do. Many believe more needs to be done, and that’s a conversation I welcome.
Over time, I believe more people will see what we see: markets can help us get smarter and manage the future with more rigor, more precision, and more certainty than we have today.
To our tens of millions of users: you have made Kalshi bigger than anything Luana and I could have possibly imagined. Thank you for trusting us and thank you for coming along on the journey. I feel a strong responsibility to build a company worthy of that trust.
I am so lucky to spend my life building something I love. I hope everyone finds something they care about that much. Something that keeps you curious. Something that pushes you to your limits. Something that may put you at odds with the status quo. Something worth the hard days.
For me, it’s still markets. The more I learn, the more I want to understand.
Tomorrow marks 8 years since we got accepted into YC and the journey began.
The odds of a kid from Lebanon getting here were pretty low.
reat, but very challenging. We went through war. We had bombs explode in front of my house. I watched brilliant people’s lives destroyed for reasons beyond their control.
Lebanon is an unpredictable country. That unpredictability made it hard to plan for success. And yet despite it all, my mom sacrificed everything to give me and my brother the chance to go back to the US.
I found my refuge in two things: anime and math. Especially math.
I loved math because it calmed me. It was the opposite of unpredictable: clear, deterministic, orderly, and consistent. The proof is either right or wrong. I find that elegant and beautiful.
I was lucky.
I made it to my dream school, MIT (largely thanks to my mom), and my love for math quickly translated to a love for statistics, probability, and markets.
I love markets for a lot of the same reasons. Their incentives are clear: you get rewarded for being right and for pursuing knowledge. They are effective weighting machines for people’s opinions. They provide an incentive to be truthful, because they separate good information from bad information. They let people challenge the consensus and be rewarded for being right.
IMO, Hayek, Surowiecki, Hanson, Tetlock were the founding fathers of prediction markets. The more I read them, the more obsessed I got with the idea of applying market-based pricing to more things.
Markets bring rigor and critical thinking to more questions. And in an increasingly polarized and information-positioned word, I believe we need that more than ever.
Markets would also let people predict and manage more things outside of their control. And the world was becoming increasingly more unpredictable, and more like Lebanon, not less.
That love for markets got Luana and me to build Kalshi.
At first, it was mostly an idea we couldn’t stop talking about. We didn’t have much money. Luana’s sister bought the Kalshi domain name for us (for ~$1.7k). We moved to SF to get started, and embarked on a long, uncertain journey to build a regulated exchange.
The paranoia and anxiety from my childhood never left me. Even when things are going well, I think about what could go wrong. When people trust you with their money, that instinct serves a purpose.
I wanted us to build something that would hold up under pressure.
The first principle we defined at the company: regulatory-first. We worked with regulators for years before we listed a single market. We took every step to do things the right way and always asked for approval before proceeding. It was very hard at times, especially when we were being overtaken by competitors, but we believe doing things the right way matters.
Luana and I aren’t the only ones.
Our team put years of their lives into something far from certain. That’s especially true of Lior, Brandon, Rainer, Luis, Xavier, and Josef, who stuck with us for years. They believed when there was little to point to. And they stuck with us no matter how long it took. Kalshi is the result of an arduous journey through a long desert where, at times, most people didn’t understand why we were making the walk.
Many people still don’t understand what we’re doing and some disagree with us. Markets have historically taken time to be understood and accepted by some. But while not always obvious, their benefits are vast: capital markets help allocate capital and derivative markets help predict and manage uncertainty.
I firmly believe in these benefits, and that’s why I am dedicating my life to building this market.
Markets have caused issues many times in the past, and they certainly can present harms (manipulation, insiders, and addictive behaviors). These harms are more acute for certain types of markets (sports, short-term options, etc.) than others. It’s why I believe that guardrails need to exist and why we have taken the approach we have taken. We have consistently prioritized thinking critically about the risks and building the appropriate safeguards, sometimes beyond what the regulators require us to do. Many believe more needs to be done, and that’s a conversation I welcome.
Over time, I believe more people will see what we see: markets can help us get smarter and manage the future with more rigor, more precision, and more certainty than we have today.
To our tens of millions of users: you have made Kalshi bigger than anything Luana and I could have possibly imagined. Thank you for trusting us and thank you for coming along on the journey. I feel a strong responsibility to build a company worthy of that trust.
I am so lucky to spend my life building something I love. I hope everyone finds something they care about that much. Something that keeps you curious. Something that pushes you to your limits. Something that may put you at odds with the status quo. Something worth the hard days.
For me, it’s still markets. The more I learn, the more I want to understand.
268
243
5,291
1,227,013
Auli retweeted
Yes, a bet and a trade often look similar.
But how they work is fundamentally different.
A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet. Prediction markets are markets, where buyers and sellers compete to discover and produce efficient prices and enable ts.
What the market is about can change, but the structure doesn't.
My op-ed on prediction markets and regulation:
But how they work is fundamentally different.
A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet. Prediction markets are markets, where buyers and sellers compete to discover and produce efficient prices and enable ts.
What the market is about can change, but the structure doesn't.
My op-ed on prediction markets and regulation:
109
97
1,261
411,631
Auli retweeted
Very soon we're going to have ETFs that track how, say, a given political party is doing in the prediction markets.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi are joining forces to build the next generation of financial markets.
The Dow launched in 1896. The S&P 500 in 1957. The idea was simple: bring individual stocks together into a single benchmark, giving people a clearer view of the broader market.
ilt around those benchmarks transformed investing. Index funds, ETFs, futures, and options gave investors ways to gain diversified market exposure and hedge broad market swings.
These indices became foundations of global finance. More than $20 trillion is indexed or benchmarked to the S&P 500 alone.
Today, this structure extends beyond stocks to bonds, commodities, currencies, and more.
The next step is to bring that structure to the events that shape everyone’s lives.
Through this partnership, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi will work together to create indices composed of Kalshi event contracts.
Think about what that opens up.
An index of political power. An index of supply chain risk. An index tracking AI’s impact on employment. An index of sports outcomes that affect broadcasters, advertisers, cities, and small businesses. An index of weather risks that shape harvests, energy demand, and business revenues.
Each would bundle event contracts into a single indicator, helping people understand how related risks are evolving.
Over time, products built around these indices could offer diversified exposure to those events and new ways to hedge their impact.
The events that shape our lives could become as easy to track and gain exposure to as the S&P 500.
27
20
459
43,041
Auli retweeted
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi are joining forces to build the next generation of financial markets.
The Dow launched in 1896. The S&P 500 in 1957. The idea was simple: bring individual stocks together into a single benchmark, giving people a clearer view of the broader market.
ilt around those benchmarks transformed investing. Index funds, ETFs, futures, and options gave investors ways to gain diversified market exposure and hedge broad market swings.
These indices became foundations of global finance. More than $20 trillion is indexed or benchmarked to the S&P 500 alone.
Today, this structure extends beyond stocks to bonds, commodities, currencies, and more.
The next step is to bring that structure to the events that shape everyone’s lives.
Through this partnership, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi will work together to create indices composed of Kalshi event contracts.
Think about what that opens up.
An index of political power. An index of supply chain risk. An index tracking AI’s impact on employment. An index of sports outcomes that affect broadcasters, advertisers, cities, and small businesses. An index of weather risks that shape harvests, energy demand, and business revenues.
Each would bundle event contracts into a single indicator, helping people understand how related risks are evolving.
Over time, products built around these indices could offer diversified exposure to those events and new ways to hedge their impact.
The events that shape our lives could become as easy to track and gain exposure to as the S&P 500.
The Dow launched in 1896. The S&P 500 in 1957. The idea was simple: bring individual stocks together into a single benchmark, giving people a clearer view of the broader market.
ilt around those benchmarks transformed investing. Index funds, ETFs, futures, and options gave investors ways to gain diversified market exposure and hedge broad market swings.
These indices became foundations of global finance. More than $20 trillion is indexed or benchmarked to the S&P 500 alone.
Today, this structure extends beyond stocks to bonds, commodities, currencies, and more.
The next step is to bring that structure to the events that shape everyone’s lives.
Through this partnership, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi will work together to create indices composed of Kalshi event contracts.
Think about what that opens up.
An index of political power. An index of supply chain risk. An index tracking AI’s impact on employment. An index of sports outcomes that affect broadcasters, advertisers, cities, and small businesses. An index of weather risks that shape harvests, energy demand, and business revenues.
Each would bundle event contracts into a single indicator, helping people understand how related risks are evolving.
Over time, products built around these indices could offer diversified exposure to those events and new ways to hedge their impact.
The events that shape our lives could become as easy to track and gain exposure to as the S&P 500.
151
166
2,391
1,026,964
Auli retweeted
The NBA has partnered with Kalshi as a Preferred Prediction Market Exchange.
Official NBA data to settle trades, stronger safeguards, and NBA branding on Kalshi.
Fans come to Kalshi because open markets are a fairer way to trade basketball. Now, it’s Official.
Official NBA data to settle trades, stronger safeguards, and NBA branding on Kalshi.
Fans come to Kalshi because open markets are a fairer way to trade basketball. Now, it’s Official.
206
131
2,727
1,128,778
Auli retweeted
Just opened a perps trade on Kalshi, and a trade on “paper trade” of the same amount
Kalshi was way easier to use, faster, better UI, spread, and it’s legal
Kalshi was way easier to use, faster, better UI, spread, and it’s legal
50
9
254
29,989
Auli retweeted
What type of people are successful on Kalshi?
We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found:
Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds.
-79% went to public school
-They are over 2x as likely to have worked than on Wall Street
-65% are self-taught
The majority of top traders: :
-Actively seek out primary documents for research
-Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs
-Outperform the public on numeracy tests
The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.
We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found:
Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds.
-79% went to public school
-They are over 2x as likely to have worked than on Wall Street
-65% are self-taught
The majority of top traders: :
-Actively seek out primary documents for research
-Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs
-Outperform the public on numeracy tests
The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.
40
85
509
446,938
Auli retweeted
Today we launched the first stock index perpetual future in America.
You can now trade a perp on the US 500, an index of America’s largest companies weighted by market cap.
Stock index perps let you trade the broader market with greater capital efficiency and make it easier to hort position. Unlike traditional options and futures, they don’t expire, so there’s no need to roll over contracts or decide when to exercise an option. Gains and losses are tied directly to how much the market moves, giving you an efficient and straightforward way to ask the question: is the market going up or down?
One perpetual contract concentrates liquidity instead of spreading it across expiration dates. Bringing more traders and competing views into a single liquidity pool on a national exchange can strengthen competition, improve pricing, and make markets more efficient over time.
This launch brings us closer to building a financial exchange for anyone and everyone. Prediction markets gave traders exposure to the events that move the stock market. The US 500 is the natural next step: a way to trade on the market itself.
You can now trade a perp on the US 500, an index of America’s largest companies weighted by market cap.
Stock index perps let you trade the broader market with greater capital efficiency and make it easier to hort position. Unlike traditional options and futures, they don’t expire, so there’s no need to roll over contracts or decide when to exercise an option. Gains and losses are tied directly to how much the market moves, giving you an efficient and straightforward way to ask the question: is the market going up or down?
One perpetual contract concentrates liquidity instead of spreading it across expiration dates. Bringing more traders and competing views into a single liquidity pool on a national exchange can strengthen competition, improve pricing, and make markets more efficient over time.
This launch brings us closer to building a financial exchange for anyone and everyone. Prediction markets gave traders exposure to the events that move the stock market. The US 500 is the natural next step: a way to trade on the market itself.
130
106
558
806,198
Auli retweeted
Are prediction markets biased by white men? Republicans? Young people?
Dartmouth professor Eric Zitzewitz analyzed 145 years of election prediction market data, spanning multiple exchanges and countries. His findings:
• No systematic evidence of political bias across different fices.
• No systematic evidence of pricing bias based on candidates’ race, gender, or age in the recent elections studied.
• Traders weren’t always representative of the voting population, yet that didn’t translate into systematic bias in election forecasts.
The paper points to a powerful mechanism: people who spot a mispriced outcome have a financial incentive to correct it. Even if some participants trade on personal preferences, informed traders keep prices grounded in reality.
Open competition incentivizes research, challenges consensus, and gives the best ideas a chance to surface. People are rewarded for being right, regardless of their background or preferences.
The paper does find some pricing biases, including slight overpricing of longshots and underpricing of favorites. Its central finding on election markets remains: no systematic evidence of political or demographic bias.
In an increasingly polarized world, these markets give us something valuable: an impartial source of information shaped by people with an incentive to get it right.
Dartmouth professor Eric Zitzewitz analyzed 145 years of election prediction market data, spanning multiple exchanges and countries. His findings:
• No systematic evidence of political bias across different fices.
• No systematic evidence of pricing bias based on candidates’ race, gender, or age in the recent elections studied.
• Traders weren’t always representative of the voting population, yet that didn’t translate into systematic bias in election forecasts.
The paper points to a powerful mechanism: people who spot a mispriced outcome have a financial incentive to correct it. Even if some participants trade on personal preferences, informed traders keep prices grounded in reality.
Open competition incentivizes research, challenges consensus, and gives the best ideas a chance to surface. People are rewarded for being right, regardless of their background or preferences.
The paper does find some pricing biases, including slight overpricing of longshots and underpricing of favorites. Its central finding on election markets remains: no systematic evidence of political or demographic bias.
In an increasingly polarized world, these markets give us something valuable: an impartial source of information shaped by people with an incentive to get it right.
28
68
336
194,478