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The journalists, pundits, and experts are smart. But no small group of people is smart enough to know what millions of people know collectively.
People know their towns, their industries, their neighbors. They see and feel things on the ground that never make it into a briefing or onto a television panel.
Markets give that knowledge a way to be heard. Each person brings a piece of the picture. Together, they reveal something no expert could see alone.
That’s why markets work. And that’s why people turn to them to understand what’s happening.
Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands.
People know their towns, their industries, their neighbors. They see and feel things on the ground that never make it into a briefing or onto a television panel.
Markets give that knowledge a way to be heard. Each person brings a piece of the picture. Together, they reveal something no expert could see alone.
That’s why markets work. And that’s why people turn to them to understand what’s happening.
Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands.
Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands.
I have spent a ton of time in DC over the last few months. The elites were certain the markets were off. I heard many variants of “no chance markets are right about X” and “I’ve been in politics for a decade. ally know much.”
Last night, ‘these people’ beat the elites.
Prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That’s 98%.
The elites live in a bubble. They theorize, write, ideate, and mistake credentials for an understanding of lives they’ve never lived. They don’t see and feel what the everyday man, on the ground, sees and feels.
Knowledge is not exclusive to the elites but scattered across millions of people.
Someone knows their hometown better than any national pundit. Someone has followed a local race passionately for months. Someone has followed a local race dispassionately for months. Someone notices a shift in their community before it makes the headlines. Someone is shaped by an incident at work. Someone is shaped by what’s getting harder or easier for their families.
Each holds a piece of the picture that no expert can see in full.
And for the longest time, that knowledge had no way to reach the rest of the world.
For generations, election night meant turning on the TV and waiting for a handful of people to tell you what happened.
Prediction markets change that.
You don't need a title, a large following, or an editor to publish you. All you need is a perspective and the conviction to back it.
That changes who holds power over information.
Anyone can see the market. Anyone can contribute to it. Anyone can question it. No title gives you the final word. No gatekeepers can filter your view.
Sometimes the signal can be wrong. But anyone can challenge the consensus and improve it.
And when people consolidate their knowledge together, something remarkable happens: millions of individual perspectives become a signal that we all can learn from.
Over the last few months, the people showed up on Kalshi to tell the world what they were going to do.
Last night, the megaphone was passed to them.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Trade on what happens next in art 🎨
Artnet, the leading source for art market data, is now @Kalshi’s official art partner. With Artnet’s data informing their calls on the largest prediction market, more people can weigh in on the art world’s biggest moments.
Read more: bit.ly/4eq06NE
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See bit.ly/4BX0g96 for more information.
Artnet, the leading source for art market data, is now @Kalshi’s official art partner. With Artnet’s data informing their calls on the largest prediction market, more people can weigh in on the art world’s biggest moments.
Read more: bit.ly/4eq06NE
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See bit.ly/4BX0g96 for more information.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Possibly the wildest DM I’ve ever received! @Kalshi IS THE ABSOLUTE GOAT! Just hooked my family up with a little weekend getaway! Major shoutout to Kalshi for the love!
$1700 day for 12 hours of driving. That shit can’t get old.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
thank you @Kalshi 🙏 means alot great people
doordashed for 11 hours to afford gta 6 pre order
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
A really cool project for those interested in prediction markets. It helps make the case that these aren't simply a source of entertainment, but a mechanism for increasing human knowledge.
We are launching a $1 million grant program for up to 50 research projects on midterm prediction markets.
Bring your best ideas. We’ll provide any publicly available Kalshi data you need.
To enter, quote tweet this post with your research idea and apply on the website.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Mammoth Rock ‘n’ Bowl is a restaurant and bowling alley in Mammoth, California, one of the top ski towns in America.
Like the hotels, rentals, and shops around it, the business runs on winter tourism. A bad snow year hits revenue hard. Rock ‘n’ Bowl is especially exposed since th snowboarding team.
So rather than wait and see, co-owner Ashley Marks asked Kalshi for a market on Mammoth Mountain December snowfall. We built it, and she’s trading $5,000 for a $31,250 payout if there’s weak snow.
"We created the snow market with Kalshi because like other mom and pop businesses, we live with seasonal snow risk and wanted to give the community a way to offset some of that uncertainty." - Ashley
If the snow comes, business runs like any other winter, and she loses the $5,000 trade.
If it doesn’t, the Kalshi position pays out, giving Ashley $26,250 to help offset lost tourist revenue.
Either way, Ashley's business is protected.
Like the hotels, rentals, and shops around it, the business runs on winter tourism. A bad snow year hits revenue hard. Rock ‘n’ Bowl is especially exposed since th snowboarding team.
So rather than wait and see, co-owner Ashley Marks asked Kalshi for a market on Mammoth Mountain December snowfall. We built it, and she’s trading $5,000 for a $31,250 payout if there’s weak snow.
"We created the snow market with Kalshi because like other mom and pop businesses, we live with seasonal snow risk and wanted to give the community a way to offset some of that uncertainty." - Ashley
If the snow comes, business runs like any other winter, and she loses the $5,000 trade.
If it doesn’t, the Kalshi position pays out, giving Ashley $26,250 to help offset lost tourist revenue.
Either way, Ashley's business is protected.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
We're announcing $1m to support research projects on elections.
We know a lot of you are interested in the intersection of prediction markets and politics, and we want to support that with grant funding. Applications close next week, so make sure to get those ideas in!
Find the app here: kalshi.com/research/grants
We know a lot of you are interested in the intersection of prediction markets and politics, and we want to support that with grant funding. Applications close next week, so make sure to get those ideas in!
Find the app here: kalshi.com/research/grants
We are launching a $1 million grant program for up to 50 research projects on midterm prediction markets.
Bring your best ideas. We’ll provide any publicly available Kalshi data you need.
To enter, quote tweet this post with your research idea and apply on the website.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
We are launching a $1 million grant program for up to 50 research projects on midterm prediction markets.
Bring your best ideas. We’ll provide any publicly available Kalshi data you need.
To enter, quote tweet this post with your research idea and apply on the website.
Bring your best ideas. We’ll provide any publicly available Kalshi data you need.
To enter, quote tweet this post with your research idea and apply on the website.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
My personal favorite from @Kalshi :
Will Vincent van Gogh's Chataigniers en fleurs (1890) sell for <above/below/exactly/at least/at most/between> <value> between November 16, 2026, and November 20, 2026?
Will Vincent van Gogh's Chataigniers en fleurs (1890) sell for <above/below/exactly/at least/at most/between> <value> between November 16, 2026, and November 20, 2026?
Weekly CFTC filings: 482 filings with status dates Nov 2 to Nov 6, and 401 of them (83.2%) came from Kalshi.
Thursday alone brought 267, including 257 Kalshi event contracts, all basketball game templates, from the EuroLeague to Vietnam's VBA.
Next busiest: PROPHX 19, ARST 12, CME 11.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
We’ve just made all of our Midterm model data comparisons public @KalshiResearch. You can see them here: kalshi.com/research/forec….
Today, the NYT claimed prediction markets were 'worse' than election models in the lead up to the midterms. But they ignore a few key pieces of the puzzle 🧵
Today, the NYT claimed prediction markets were 'worse' than election models in the lead up to the midterms. But they ignore a few key pieces of the puzzle 🧵
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
VOTEHUB: “Final Kalshi markets were more accurate than any individual model in races.”
Our complete forecast, which incorporated Kalshi order books and expert ratings, slightly outperformed our legacy forecast. Final Kalshi markets were more accurate than any individual model in races.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
CBS had a really good election night “Nerd show”
Shoutout @SalvantoCBS, the @VoteHub team, @nkagan_official, and the whole CBS team
Shoutout @SalvantoCBS, the @VoteHub team, @nkagan_official, and the whole CBS team
What a blast to work with the gang from @VoteHub and the energy, innovation and intellect they bring... super fun!
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
FINALLY KALSHI JUST LAUNCHED SINGLE STOCK PERPS
📈 PICK UP OR DOWN, TRACKS THE STOCK IN REAL TIME
♾️ NO EXPIRY & NO TIME DECAY
📉 SHORTING WITHOUT MARGIN ACCOUNT OR BORROW FEES
⚡ 2X AND 3X AVAILABLE
🌙 TRADES SUNDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY EVENING
💰 7% INTEREST ON BALANCES
📈 PICK UP OR DOWN, TRACKS THE STOCK IN REAL TIME
♾️ NO EXPIRY & NO TIME DECAY
📉 SHORTING WITHOUT MARGIN ACCOUNT OR BORROW FEES
⚡ 2X AND 3X AVAILABLE
🌙 TRADES SUNDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY EVENING
💰 7% INTEREST ON BALANCES
Single stock perps (SSPs) are here. And they're a truly great product. You don’t need to pay rollover fees like with futures, they’re simpler to trade than options, and you can go short just as easy as you can go long.
This is one of the most consequential products we’ve be more proud of the team that worked for over a year to bring them to life. Just this morning, since the stealth launch, our users traded over $300m.
Grateful to be the ones bringing these to America in a regulated way 💚
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US markets have led financial innovation for a century.
Equity perps were an exception: $4.5T in volume, all of it offshore.
Bringing them to the US closes that gap and helps keep America the center of financial innovation.
And it brings a really cool product to consumers.
Equity perps were an exception: $4.5T in volume, all of it offshore.
Bringing them to the US closes that gap and helps keep America the center of financial innovation.
And it brings a really cool product to consumers.
Single stock perps (SSPs) are here. And they're a truly great product. You don’t need to pay rollover fees like with futures, they’re simpler to trade than options, and you can go short just as easy as you can go long.
This is one of the most consequential products we’ve be more proud of the team that worked for over a year to bring them to life. Just this morning, since the stealth launch, our users traded over $300m.
Grateful to be the ones bringing these to America in a regulated way 💚
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Single stock perps (SSPs) are here. And they're a truly great product. You don’t need to pay rollover fees like with futures, they’re simpler to trade than options, and you can go short just as easy as you can go long.
This is one of the most consequential products we’ve be more proud of the team that worked for over a year to bring them to life. Just this morning, since the stealth launch, our users traded over $300m.
Grateful to be the ones bringing these to America in a regulated way 💚
This is one of the most consequential products we’ve be more proud of the team that worked for over a year to bring them to life. Just this morning, since the stealth launch, our users traded over $300m.
Grateful to be the ones bringing these to America in a regulated way 💚
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
VoteHub took a risk by being the first serious election model to incorporate prediction markets.
Head of Data Sciece @ZacharyDonnini said their complete forecast which incorporated Kalshi performed “even better” than their legacy one
I predict they’ll use Kalshi again in ‘28
Head of Data Sciece @ZacharyDonnini said their complete forecast which incorporated Kalshi performed “even better” than their legacy one
I predict they’ll use Kalshi again in ‘28
If I can say one thing, Election Twitter should, above all, be a place where people can discuss elections, share their takes, and make predictions in a culture where disagreement is common and welcome but people engage respectfully and in good faith. At VoteHub, we follow the data where it leads rather than look for data that supports a predetermined conclusion. I think that's important, too. Elections are unpredictable and really difficult to forecast. For example, VoteHub's forecast had a great cycle (we undershot Dems overall but our legacy forecast had the lowest log-loss out of anyone, and our complete forecast was even better) but our forecast got a LOT, including a Solid R race in TN-04, wrong. No one saw everything that happened on Tuesday coming. Smart, reasonable people can look at the same data and reach different conclusions, and that's okay.
P.S. It's funny to think that Ossoff winning by ten was considered a lot just a week ago. Our forecast was really low on Ossoff and Cooper both considering the electorate! Even in a bad year for Democrats nationally they still probably hit double digits.
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