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A prediction market saying a life-saving treatment has only a 6% chance of FDA approval doesn’t just move money.
Some clinical trial participants will inevitably question whether staying enrolled is worth it after seeing odds like that.
‘Markets’ shouldn’t undermine the very research they’re supposedly predicting. Sign the petition in link.
change.org/p/ban-predicti…
Some clinical trial participants will inevitably question whether staying enrolled is worth it after seeing odds like that.
‘Markets’ shouldn’t undermine the very research they’re supposedly predicting. Sign the petition in link.
change.org/p/ban-predicti…
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The founder of Kalshi is a coward who can’t handle the slightest of heat. $40 billion company btw
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I am 100% Team Nate in this beef. It’s *obvious* to anyone paying attention that the betting markets just moved over time towards the models. That’s the info they were working off of! They didn’t “discover” anything
Give me a break, the polls and models provided the direction in contast to vibes and dumb insiders. And yes it's good that traders were smart enough to trust them. But the better election models were more confident about the outcome than the markets and got there more quickly.
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The law of unintended consequences: all of this recent docket activity may finally rouse Judge Broderick from his slumber and prompt him to remand the case to state court—a step he should have taken weeks ago. The motion to remand has been sub judice since August 28.
JUST IN: NY AG’s latest state court subpoena enforcement proceeding—seeking records on influencers, undisclosed paid partnerships, and institutional market makers—prompts Kalshi to seek an expedited SDNY ruling from Judge Broderick on its protective-order motion.
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@MollyJongFast @secupp No member of congress, or president, or government official should be stock trading or engaged in prediction markets. Let’s pass that damn law.
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@mansourtarek_ You’re one of the elites bro
Even worse, you’re out here scamming working class Americans out of money with a glorified gambling app
Explain to me why Kalshi pays for undisclosed ads, like this?
Even worse, you’re out here scamming working class Americans out of money with a glorified gambling app
Explain to me why Kalshi pays for undisclosed ads, like this?
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I have to say, "Armed with every bit of data from Silver Bulletin and Split Ticket, we performed comparably to Silver Bulletin and Split Ticket" does a lot more to build my estimation of Nate Silver and Lakshya Jain than it does to build my estimation of prediction markets.
Head to head with the forecasting models, the markets were more accurate.
Brier score measures how far a forecast lands from the actual result. Lower is better.
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Last night was actually deeply embarassing for Kalshi, which badly mispriced several major races, but its founders would rather cherry-pick one impressive-sounding statistic.
Being confidently wrong isn't the future of journalism, @luanalopeslara.
Being confidently wrong isn't the future of journalism, @luanalopeslara.
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i think there will be an enormous political backlash to betting and prediction markets with the next congress
Gambling companies spent $23 million backing a Nebraska ballot measure to legalize online sports betting. Opponents raised just $1 mil. Voters rejected it, 55%-45%. The federal government must stop forcing prediction market sports gambling into communities that don't want it.
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🚨 BREAKING: Arkansas sues Kalshi in state court, seeking restitution, injunctive relief, actual and compensatory damages, and civil penalties.
The state is represented by the AG’s office and private class action counsel.
Somebody is listening. 👀
(h/t @DustinGouker)
The state is represented by the AG’s office and private class action counsel.
Somebody is listening. 👀
(h/t @DustinGouker)
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Now that the GOP literally has to start over, I wonder if social conservatives will try to establish a role again.
Maybe they’d have done better if the party weren’t associated with gambling apps, a President fixated on male bodies, big donors with multiple divorces etc.
Maybe they’d have done better if the party weren’t associated with gambling apps, a President fixated on male bodies, big donors with multiple divorces etc.
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Prediction markets and gambling apps in America should be like cigarettes in Europe. Should flash giant popups about how average user loses money, retires later. Photos of man alone at his computer screen with his head in his hands
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Tech Right sheep, at least you got to spend two years sucking up to a16z, posting “based” and “I voted for this” and giggling like little kids about saying “retarded”
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DaveBFR, once a GREAT AMERICAN PATRIOT and loyal member of Bears Twitter, has SOLD OUT to KALSHI! A TOTAL DISGRACE! And now they have the AUDACITY to put “KALSHICHICAGO” on the account? KEEP OUR GREAT CITY OUT OF THIS! We don't want you! GET OUT! SHAME! President BJT
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wrote about all of the rappers advertising their Midterm election bets through Kalshi and why this strain of selling out feels even bleaker than usual pitchfork.com/story/why-were…
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Voters handed Democrats the chance to rewrite the crypto industry’s top legislative priority, starting with tougher ethics rules aimed at tackling President Donald Trump’s ventures. news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/de…
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Prediction markets continue to be effectively worthless and a drag on the credibility of news outlets that partner with them.
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"The prediction market election"; "huge night for prediction markets."
Ok.
Over last seven days, elections still less than 5% of total trading volume. These are sports betting sites with a small sprinkling of elections every two years.
Ok.
Over last seven days, elections still less than 5% of total trading volume. These are sports betting sites with a small sprinkling of elections every two years.
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I wish markets would give credit to smart modelers and other experts when they deserve it. Traders have incentives to follow reliable information and skilled practitioners who actually know what they're doing. Which is good, but polls/models were in the driver's seat this time.
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@luanalopeslara @mansourtarek_ Why are you celebrating? Your business just died tonight
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