Many criticize the polls for "getting the election results wrong" and say the election models or prediction markets are more accurate. But they ignore that polls are the main input of those models and markets. Without polls, modelers and bettors would be wandering in the unknown.

Industry estimates put more than two-thirds of sports prediction-market volume in states without legal sports betting. Opposition isn’t just sportsbooks guarding turf, writes @JonathanDCohen1 of @aibm_org, an Arnold Ventures grantee, in @WSJopinion. 🔗🔒 on.wsj.com/4zA9WoI

Prediction markets election forecasts are amazing. But they have real costs. PMs are still just gambling sites with no guardrails. Traders (young men) can easily bet over their skis.

On the Problem Gambling subreddit this morning, from someone who lost $190K on @Kalshi

@Kalshi For everyone in the comments saying its fake/everything on Reddit is made up, @brianjpempus talked to the guy and reviewed his Kalshi account
gamblingharm.org/after-losing-1…

I spoke to the guy on a video call just a few hours ago:

gamblingharm.org/after-losing-1…

"The prediction market election"; "huge night for prediction markets."

Ok.

Over last seven days, elections still less than 5% of total trading volume. These are sports betting sites with a small sprinkling of elections every two years.

Gambling is all fun and games, until it’s not. Our phones provide a frictionless environment that can get people into real trouble & young men are bearing the brunt. @JonathanDCohen1‘s new paper outlines how to keep gambling legal, but with added guardrails:
aibm.org/policy/how-to-…

Can you still get lucky in your career?

Kai’s career went backwards, forwards, sideways, and forwards again. I wanted to talk to him about whether that kind of trajectory is still possible in the modern economy and what we *can* control right now.

Watch it below!

AIBM’s @JonathanDCohen1 endorses the idea of “practical ‘speed bumps’ like deposit limits or time limits as a default setting to create more friction for people engaged in betting” in a recent @politico piece.
politico.com/news/magazine/…

Back in the 1980s, tribal bingo first emerged through a loophole in state gambling law. Sound familiar?

I'm not sure PMs are the existential threat many tribes seem to think they are, but I understand the concerns, and tribes' legal case against PMs seems like a slam dunk

FINALLY someone asked for my take on the Sydney Sweeney ad. Great to chat with @edels0n on the state of play in the gambling industry

Either @GovWesMoore is the fastest moving politician in America, or he's ahead of the curve. The new MD AI plan prohibits the targeting of gamblers "showing problem-gambling patterns" and restricts promotions late at night or after losses

What the f**k are we doing here…

Is the goal to drive an entire generation of young men into bankruptcy

As someone who started betting sports at a young age this kind of access could have ruined my life

Where are all the antigambling Christians? The so-called moral majority have gone quiet on gambling and prediction markets. The result: the clearest moral case against them comes from @ChrisMurphyCT

Lots of members of Congress complain about prediction markets but the only one who has made a MORAL case against them is.....@ChrisMurphyCT???

I wrote for Arc about vice and the vacuum left by a religious right that has ignored gambling for too long.

“It took us 40 years to get to 40 states with state lotteries. And it took us like 7 years to get to 40 states with sports gambling. This is a reflection of how American government these days is not exactly known for moving quickly. And yet with sports gambling, we’ve somehow managed to do that,” explains @JonathanDCohen1 to @jeffedelstein on his latest podcast episode:
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e30…

Spoke with @roundrobin42 about the new consumer advocacy group launching to add a new voice to prediction market discourse 🗣️

sportico.com/business/sport…

Kalshi assures customers they're protected by the National Futures Association's (NFA) strict rules against deceptive advertising. But Kalshi isn't a member of the NFA, and never has been.

Prediction markets want the credibility of regulation without the constraints. They insist they're investment platforms, not gambling. If so, they should be subject to the same advertising standards as investment firms.

Instead, Polymarket built fake websites so influencers could stage payouts. Kalshi paid "clippers" to post phony winning bets, usually with no disclosure they were ads. One paid partner was a 15-year-old streamer whose partnership only ended after legal caught wind of it.

Real brokerages like Schwab and Fidelity live under strict ad rules from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). Prediction markets answer to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which last updated its advertising guidance in 2007, the year the iPhone launched. Its 267 pages of new rules in June set zero standards for marketing.

Writing in @CityJournal, @JonathanDCohen1 & @roundrobin42 of @aibm_org propose a fix. The CFTC should ban promises of guaranteed winnings, prohibit fabricated or simulated wins, and require paid-partnership disclosure in every ad. And the rules can't stop at the platforms, they have to reach the affiliates as well—the influencers, clippers, and marketing contractors doing the actual work.

The CFTC already requires anyone who brings in customers for a regulated exchange to register as an 'Introducing Broker.' Among other things, registration means joining the NFA and following its ad rules. Apply it to everyone paid to promote prediction markets, and the shadow-marketing efforts of influencers, clippers, and contractors would answer to the very standards Kalshi pretends to follow.

Prediction markets can be genuinely useful—they often forecast elections and events more accurately than pundits or polls. But you can't call yourself an investment platform and advertise like a casino.

city-journal.org/article/predic…

On the "Consumer Protections" section of its website, @Kalshi boasts that the National Futures Association "imposes specific marketing restrictions" for prediction markets. Only one problem: Kalshi is not an NFA member and is not subject to its rules

Prediction markets cling to their status as investment sites and the legitimacy of financial regulation while their ads are basically completely unregulated.

@roundrobin42 and I wrote about this for @CityJournal
city-journal.org/article/predic…

Link to the relevant part of Kalshi's website: kalshi.com/market-integri…