eventwaves retweeted
Inspired by recent discussion about whether it's possible to learn trading outside an elite firm.
If you're the kind of person that reads this project and thinks it sounds fun, imo you'll be able to learn employable trading skills just fine on your own. x.com/i/article/2119…
If you're the kind of person that reads this project and thinks it sounds fun, imo you'll be able to learn employable trading skills just fine on your own. x.com/i/article/2119…
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I think Jensen will have some type of admin leave, but according to the rules that won't qualify as a Yes
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Draftkings built a model to predict when the Supreme Court would rule on sports prediction markets. Their forecast is mid-year 2028
I wonder how they built that model
They're investing 700MM into these markets, so a pretty high stakes prediction!
I wonder how they built that model
They're investing 700MM into these markets, so a pretty high stakes prediction!
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Market is extremely jittery, but I kind of lean towards the IPO still happening
Since August, a team within METR has worked with internal Anthropic information to assess whether AI itself is accelerating AI development.
We are now publishing a report summarizing the results of this risk assessment.
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eventwaves retweeted
Prediction Markets called the midterm elections for the democrats in minutes, while it took the stock market 3 whole days
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People who do polls have the same complaints about modelers that modelers have about markets
No one really likes when their work is used as grist for a higher level abstraction that gets much of the credit
No one really likes when their work is used as grist for a higher level abstraction that gets much of the credit
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eventwaves retweeted
This is a wonks-only postmortem, so please forgive me for one more: I think @NateSilver538 used to say that he'd prefer you just use Classic in a competition.
But if you allow it (and we should!), then the best Brier Score model of the cycle is clearly Silver Bulletin's Deluxe.
But if you allow it (and we should!), then the best Brier Score model of the cycle is clearly Silver Bulletin's Deluxe.
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Wrote a quick piece highlighting some of the best trades and analysis from the midterm elections
eventwaves.substack.com/p/midterm-awar…
eventwaves.substack.com/p/midterm-awar…
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I'm a perps noob, but wouldn't it be important to know what specific external data feed is being used to determine the price?
Anthropic ($ANT) Pre-IPO Perp is now live on Polymarket Perps
Up to 10x leverage. No market hours. No expiry.
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Closing most of my midterm positions
I'm not good enough at election forecasting to chase small edges
Will keep the combos open though
I'm not good enough at election forecasting to chase small edges
Will keep the combos open though
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Why buy republican shares now when you can get a better price in an hour?
(This is dumb, but how it feels to me)
(This is dumb, but how it feels to me)
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