Finished the midterms +$175k across everything, easily my biggest win ever
Now I can finally enjoy the WoW Forever release
Huge thanks to @Domahhhh and @_decap for convincing me to bond Talarico instead of Becerra
Now I can finally enjoy the WoW Forever release
Huge thanks to @Domahhhh and @_decap for convincing me to bond Talarico instead of Becerra
After getting bullied online, I have sold some of my bonds and purchased 50k Talarico shares
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PredictionMarketTrader retweeted
Over the course of October from looking at the early voting data and the trajectory of the generic ballot, I became convinced Democrats were heading for a wave as big as 1958, 1974, and 1982.
We hadn't seen Democrats get large turnout advantages over Republicans in the 10 years of Trump on the scene -- even in 2018, Reps turned out more by party reg % of their voters in key states like Florida to blunt the effects of persuasion.
Early voting and opinion polling validated that a set of young Republican voters were opting out of the election while an endless deluge of low propensity Democratic voters would show up any day any time in early voting. It didn't make sense to me that this trend would stop on election Day, which is usually when lowest propensity voters + habitual eday voters (these happen to be a lot of Republicans!) show up.
Early voting demonstrated that, in nearly every state (Iowa exempted), Democrats had the best turnout adjusted for gaps in total registration of any time going back to 2000. And it wasn't small, the gulf was enormous in NC, FL, TX, KS, NV, etc.
The only piece of the puzzle left to solve was whether the Red Surge would arrive on election day. Very early and very clearly it didn't.
From that point on I sent 100% of my portfolio into Senate bets, control bets, governor bets across the map. Particularly in Texas, where the wave effects were going to be highest -- 2nd youngest state and majority non white. Polling data was very likely to understate Democrats everywhere on the map but it would be amplified where the most unlikely voters were concentrated -- younger or minority areas -- because polls would have considered them very unlikely to vote in a midterm election.
I allocated money into the Bible belt states based on the historic turnout of black voters everywhere for a midterm, but particularly in the deep South. Rural malaise and peak black turnout with strong black candidates made them good value relative to their price.
Don't listen to pablum that early voting tells you nothing.
Net return across sites was $1.5MM.
The losses:
- Florida governor (-150k). This state is unbelievable. Jolly was still good value based on R+9 electorate, but losing by a point is frustrating. Still better than paying 80c for Donalds IMO.
- Nebraska Senate (-30k). On paper this should have worked; the polling data was always tight and the electorate wasn't going to be very R. But perhaps it was because Osborne WASN'T a Democrat that he didn't get the "vote blue no matter who" jump everyone else did.
We hadn't seen Democrats get large turnout advantages over Republicans in the 10 years of Trump on the scene -- even in 2018, Reps turned out more by party reg % of their voters in key states like Florida to blunt the effects of persuasion.
Early voting and opinion polling validated that a set of young Republican voters were opting out of the election while an endless deluge of low propensity Democratic voters would show up any day any time in early voting. It didn't make sense to me that this trend would stop on election Day, which is usually when lowest propensity voters + habitual eday voters (these happen to be a lot of Republicans!) show up.
Early voting demonstrated that, in nearly every state (Iowa exempted), Democrats had the best turnout adjusted for gaps in total registration of any time going back to 2000. And it wasn't small, the gulf was enormous in NC, FL, TX, KS, NV, etc.
The only piece of the puzzle left to solve was whether the Red Surge would arrive on election day. Very early and very clearly it didn't.
From that point on I sent 100% of my portfolio into Senate bets, control bets, governor bets across the map. Particularly in Texas, where the wave effects were going to be highest -- 2nd youngest state and majority non white. Polling data was very likely to understate Democrats everywhere on the map but it would be amplified where the most unlikely voters were concentrated -- younger or minority areas -- because polls would have considered them very unlikely to vote in a midterm election.
I allocated money into the Bible belt states based on the historic turnout of black voters everywhere for a midterm, but particularly in the deep South. Rural malaise and peak black turnout with strong black candidates made them good value relative to their price.
Don't listen to pablum that early voting tells you nothing.
Net return across sites was $1.5MM.
The losses:
- Florida governor (-150k). This state is unbelievable. Jolly was still good value based on R+9 electorate, but losing by a point is frustrating. Still better than paying 80c for Donalds IMO.
- Nebraska Senate (-30k). On paper this should have worked; the polling data was always tight and the electorate wasn't going to be very R. But perhaps it was because Osborne WASN'T a Democrat that he didn't get the "vote blue no matter who" jump everyone else did.
The problem with holding any Reps right now is that we have a good amount of evidence with turnout reports + early voting that Republicans are facing a historic turnout gap and a historic gap on persuasion (06 is D+18, polls for now are D+20 to D+25). We haven't seen any votes counted, but I think it is fair that people might consider some once-unthinkable outcomes here.
In 2006 there was not a large differential turnout gap to this degree.
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After getting bullied online, I have sold some of my bonds and purchased 50k Talarico shares
Here are my midterm positions:
Not financial advice, don't blindly tail anything
- $160k Becerra CA Gov @ 93.7¢
- $82k Healey MA Gov @ 94.7¢
- $80k Dem House @ 90.5¢
- $60k Hochul NY Gov @ 92.7¢
- $30k in various Dem Senate sweep combos (OH, ME, AK, TX, MI, IA) and $8k in Rep senate combos (W Hedge) all bought when correlation was off
Keeping a good chunk in cash to live buy as more information comes out tonight.
Hoping for a Dem Senate sweep - good luck everyone, and make sure to vote!
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PredictionMarketTrader retweeted
When you have the risk tolerance of a 90 year old granny.
Here are my midterm positions:
Not financial advice, don't blindly tail anything
- $160k Becerra CA Gov @ 93.7¢
- $82k Healey MA Gov @ 94.7¢
- $80k Dem House @ 90.5¢
- $60k Hochul NY Gov @ 92.7¢
- $30k in various Dem Senate sweep combos (OH, ME, AK, TX, MI, IA) and $8k in Rep senate combos (W Hedge) all bought when correlation was off
Keeping a good chunk in cash to live buy as more information comes out tonight.
Hoping for a Dem Senate sweep - good luck everyone, and make sure to vote!
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Here are my midterm positions:
Not financial advice, don't blindly tail anything
- $160k Becerra CA Gov @ 93.7¢
- $82k Healey MA Gov @ 94.7¢
- $80k Dem House @ 90.5¢
- $60k Hochul NY Gov @ 92.7¢
- $30k in various Dem Senate sweep combos (OH, ME, AK, TX, MI, IA) and $8k in Rep senate combos (W Hedge) all bought when correlation was off
Keeping a good chunk in cash to live buy as more information comes out tonight.
Hoping for a Dem Senate sweep - good luck everyone, and make sure to vote!
Not financial advice, don't blindly tail anything
- $160k Becerra CA Gov @ 93.7¢
- $82k Healey MA Gov @ 94.7¢
- $80k Dem House @ 90.5¢
- $60k Hochul NY Gov @ 92.7¢
- $30k in various Dem Senate sweep combos (OH, ME, AK, TX, MI, IA) and $8k in Rep senate combos (W Hedge) all bought when correlation was off
Keeping a good chunk in cash to live buy as more information comes out tonight.
Hoping for a Dem Senate sweep - good luck everyone, and make sure to vote!
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PredictionMarketTrader retweeted
My wife has no idea our entire net worth is in play today
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Wow, just yesterday Haley Stevens endorsed the Republican opposition and now Dan Sullivan endorses the Democrat opposition Mary Peltola
Crazy news cycle
Crazy news cycle
JUST IN: Dan Sullivan says he is voting for Mary Peltola in Alaska and urges all his supporters to do the sameCommunity noteThere are two Dan Sullivans on the Alaska Senate ballot. Incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan campaigns against Mary Peltola and has not endorsed her. Dan J. Sullivan said in August he preferred her, but no recent statement exists and he is reported missing.
thehill.com/homenews/campa…
seattletimes.com/nation-world/n…
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Life comes at you fast
When your disapproval rating is nearly 70%, you can’t win re-election, no matter how awful the opponent. Nithya’s DSA ballot harvesters will find the most votes. @Kalshi
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Why is bro giving a presentation on the reflecting pool the day before the midterms??
President Trump Delivers Remarks, Nov. 2, 2026 x.com/i/broadcasts/2…
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How it feels to have substantial US American Currency Dollars riding on democrats to win an election
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Oh my god
The final Times/Siena polls of the campaign find Democrats ahead in all seven of the states likeliest to decide the Senate
nytimes.com/2026/11/01/us/…
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