Exact opposite might be true. All “the dumb money” went passive. Now it’s just professional active managers competing against each other.
Ironic.

The more money moves to passive funds and ETFs, the better opportunities for outperformance from picking stocks.
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Refiners are crushing it. Spread between oil and refined products widening out = perfect backdrop.

Valero net income:

Q3 2025: $1.1B
Q3 2026: $6.8B

$VLO +150% over the past year.
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AI temperature check.

"Demand for compute accelerating."

"No signs of it slowing down. Scarcity only intensifying."

Blackstone $BX CEO Steve Schwarzman:
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Spotify been a rollercoaster this year. $SPOT

May: down 30% YTD
Today: back to flat
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AI-driven search yielding much different results than traditional search.

Rollins CEO:

Result = more fragmented, variable, dynamic customer discovery process. $ROL
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Morningstar on Netflix:

Negative sentiment has created the best buying opportunity for $NFLX shares in years.
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Replying to @BushwoodCap
$NFLX in a 50% drawdown over the past year.
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Elon makes the case SpaceX’s most unique skill is getting compute up and running despite all the constraints (land, power, and shell).

“Bit like the Yankees playing in little league.” $SPCX
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Replying to @BushwoodCap
Elon: biggest constraints on AI are in power and cooling. Not chips.
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Have noticed a few value investors buying Intercontinental Exchange — owns NYSE.

Might be cheap for a reason. Nasdaq crushing them winning IPO business.

Nasdaq has won listings of 59 companies, raising $120B in IPOs this year, while NYSE has landed 32 companies, raising $20B
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Replying to @BushwoodCap
Nasdaq won the SpaceX listing. And is likely going to win the Anthropic listing as well.

Key factor = Nasdaq ability to fast-track new public companies like SpaceX to its popular Nasdaq-100 index made it all but impossible to compete.
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If it wasn’t already obvious why Google Cloud is growing so fast.

Anthropic plans to spend $111 billion on Google cloud computing contracts, regardless of actual usage.”
wsj.com/tech/ai/anthro…
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Google still cares about being at the frontier competing w/ OpenAI + Anthropic.

$GOOG CEO Sundar Pichai on the @Kantrowitz pod:

"So committed to being at the frontier. It's in our DNA. Wouldn't do it any other way. Been thinking about it for a decade now."
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Replying to @BushwoodCap
$GOOG CEO continued:

Being at the frontier puts you at the innovation frontier. You learn so much more by being more. Which allows you to iterate and improve.
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Replying to @BushwoodCap
$GOOG CEO the AI buildout and negative narratives:

Could there be an overbuild? Yes.

...but we listen to demand signals. And am I confident that the compute we are building we'll have demand for it? Absolutely yes.
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Not often the CEO pimps his insider purchases in the opening remarks.

$MSCI CEO has bought $30M in stock since the beginning of 2024.
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Apollo/Blackstone = "chicken equity" exposure to AI buildout.

NVIDIA = pure-play heroine.
If you're bullish on the AI buildout in 2027, is the better trade $CRWV $NVDA hyperscalers or $APO $BX type names?
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One of my favorites - $CME CEO Terry Duffy - on Odd Lots w/ @TheStalwart & @tracyalloway:

On sports betting - are there any laws anymore?

Duffy: does feel like “ready. fire. aim.” environment right now. so many markets prone to manipulation w/ prediction mkts.
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Replying to @BushwoodCap
Duffy on perpetual futures:

They’re circumventing the rules. Not a supporter. CME’s biggest clients don’t want to trade them anyway. At least yet, anyway.
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Replying to @BushwoodCap
On compute (GPU) futures trading:

We need it. GPU mkt will be multiples of the crypto mkt by 2030, and we have crypto futures.

If US wants to lead in AI, we need a risk offset for GPUs and other components.
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