Helium added to the list of critical materials:

energy.gov/sites/default/…

NEW ODD LOTS - The FORGOTTEN GODMOTHER OF MODERN ECONOMICS

In this episode, @TheStalwart & I talk to @jeannasmialek about her new book on Maria Edgworth, a largely forgotten Regency-era novelist who was a major contributor to early economics

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…

NEW ODD LOTS:

Jacobin founder @sunraysunray tells me and @tracyalloway that after the socialists take over, we don’t have to worry. Markets will still have a major role to play in the economy open.spotify.com/episode/1cvgFd…

THIS IS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE WHEN NATION'S FAILE

On the new Odd Lots, @tracyalloway and I talked to Nobel Prize winning economist James Robinson -- co-author of Why Nations Fail -- to tell us about the state of the US and what would be the signs of failure.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jam…

There's something that really irks me about people describing the market reaction to the 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank as "overblown."

The selloff was overblown because we ended up getting an SVB 'fix' in the form of a complete transformation of the US banking system with an unlimited bailout of depositors (above the $250k FDIC cap) and a new liquidity program from the Fed (the BTFP).

If your preferred analogy for the CoreWeave selloff is 'Oh, it's like SVB, it's not systemic' then you need to at least acknowledge the systemic changes that stopped SVB from becoming a much bigger deal.

NEW ODD LOTS

It's the one and only Terry Duffy, @CMEGroup Chairman and CEO, on the disconcerting state of market regulation.

@TheStalwart & I talk to him about insider trading, prediction markets, perpetual futures, and how to make an exit.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cme…

Business Insider confirms it: Amazon has warehouses of GPUs that can’t be installed, and is buying them so far in advance that a supply chain team said they “didn’t have a clear forecasted path” to installing them.
businessinsider.com/amazon-220-bil…

Really enjoyed being back on Odd Lots with @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway. Would indeed have been fun to debate perps with Terry Duffy. We clearly have different views…

Following my prediction on last year's recording that in 10 years compute will be bigger than oil, this year I revealed the name we use at DRW for the profit margin between tokens and GPUs: the crunch spread.

Oil into fuel: crack spread. Soybeans into meal and oil: crush spread. Nat gas into power: spark spread. As with those markets, futures on both the GPU hours and tokens eventually will let you trade—and hedge—the crunch.

Listen to Odd Lots on Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/1te7oSFyR…

Listen to Odd Lots on YouTube: youtube.com/playlist?list=…

Listen to Odd Lots on Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd…

NEW ODD LOTS:

@tracyalloway and I speak with Talking Heads frontman David Byrne open.spotify.com/episode/5937q2…

Thank you to @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway for having me on! Appreciate the research that went into the thoughtful questions and discussion.

We derived some interesting results live about how mechanisms such as HIP-3* ought to work. This wasn't scripted and reflects close listening and quick learning by the hosts. I was impressed and enjoyed the conversation.

NEW ODD LOTS;

The French political crisis that’s turning into a debt crisis.

@tracyalloway and I talk to Shahin Vallée, member of the German Council on Foreign Relations and onetime advisor to Emmanuel Macron, about risk of Euro Crisis 2.0 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd…

people asked me if I converted @TheStalwart into a HYPE maxi. In fact, one of the reasons I accidentally became the Hyperliquid reporter was bc @tracyalloway - when she and Joe still sat behind me - asked if we were writing about this startup called Hyperliquid

Obviously you should listen to the whole thing but:

Nothing makes 5% risk free look more attractive than the prospect of negative equity returns.

Incredible piece on Hyperliquid coming to the USA in Bloomberg today.

Kudos @tracyalloway @TheStalwart

hyperliquid:native

NEW ODD LOTS:

It’s the podcast debut for Jeff Yan

@tracyalloway and I have an ultra-rare interview with the CEO and co-founder of Hyperliquid Labs about his plan to house the world’s entire financial system

open.spotify.com/episode/5AqOmZ…

Perry Mehrling, RIP.

According to the History of Economics Society, Perry Mehrling died "Monday night from injury sustained in a fall several days earlier." He was Professor of International Political Economy at Boston University and, previously, longtime Professor of Economics was a highly esteemed historian of economics.

Here is his homepage:

sites.bu.edu/perry/

His last book: "Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System"

amzn.to/47RVhJ2

"Charles Kindleberger ranks as one of the twentieth century's best known and most influential international economists. This book traces the evolution of his thinking in the context of a 'key-currency' approach to the rise of the dollar system, here revealed as the indispensable framework for global economic development since World War II. Unlike most of his colleagues, Kindleberger was deeply interested in history, and his economics brimmed with real people and institutional details. His research at the New York Fed and BIS during the Great Depression, his wartime intelligence work, and his role in administering the Marshall Plan gave him deep insight into how the international financial system really operated. A biography of both the dollar and a man, this book is also the story of the development of ideas about how money works. It throws revealing light on the underlying economic forces and political obstacles shaping our globalized world."

Charles Goodhart: "The discipline of economics is balanced, somewhat unsteadily, between two legs, with the skill of the historian on one side and of the mathematical modeler on the other. In the second half of the 20th century, the tide flowed strongly to elevate the second leg and to diminish the first. In this delightful biography of Charlie Kindleberger, a charming and loveable man, Perry Mehrling shows how Charlie, in his chosen role, as an international monetary economist, fought against that tide, often unsuccessfully. Perry writes so beautifully that one would only need a smattering of economics to enjoy the tale; while if one is interested in the history of economic thought in international monetary economics, then this book is, of course, a must read.'

amzn.to/47RVhJ2

NEW ODD LOTS:

@tracyalloway and I talk to @So8res to get the actual details on how AI would actually kill us all podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nat…

ODD LOTS:

“.. the dividing line for the US consumer is increasingly coming down to stock ownership, which is itself increasingly tied to the AI story.”

@TheStalwart @tracyalloway
bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

Some notes on what's going on in math with AI, based on this phenomenal podcast episode:

--There are infinite possible facts in math, and the whole point is to allocate our attention and effort to a tiny subset that humans deem most interesting and valuable to learn

--We are currently tremendously bandwidth-constrained on verifying mathematical results because we still rely on human experts to tell us whether a result, even if we assume it's correct, is interesting and valuable

--If you listen to this episode, one of the things that is so striking is how interesting, curious, and helpful the guest, Justin Solomon is. He is nowhere close to being replaced by AI. He's a total delight!

This is a really great episode, I strongly recommend. I queued it up for my zone 2 run today but it was so exciting that I defnitely ended up in zone 3 at least.