Caution with EV data, especially this year; what ultimately is going to decide most of the key races on Tuesday is how differently Is and Rs vote from 22 and 24. A “blue wave” won’t come from D turnout (alone), but from Is breaking hard D and Rs staying home/voting 10-15% D.
Iowa Early Vote Composition Day-by-Day (2026 vs. 2022 & 2024):
1
14
39
9,764
One of my mantras is that good campaigns lose and bad campaigns win all the time; outcome alone does not render judgment on every campaign strategy or tactic used.
That said, win or lose, I think Hamilton has run an S++ tier campaign. 🫡
That said, win or lose, I think Hamilton has run an S++ tier campaign. 🫡
Good morning, Wichita!
I started the day at Boeing, shaking hands with the night crew heading home and the morning crew coming in. When I was growing up, my dad was one of them. Hardworking people are the reason Wichita is still the Air Capital of the World. – AH
10
35
500
24,855
Addisu Demissie retweeted
If you're going to carry the banner for restaurant trutherism, please have the dignity to spell Chuck E Cheese by its proper name.
Barack Obama says Cheesecake Factory and Chuckie Cheese were staples of his daughter's childhoods. His daughters are 25 and 27 now which means when he started running for President they were 6 and 8. He was a Senator before that, so they were 4 and 6. He was a state Senator in Illinois they were toddlers, and there's no Cheesecake Factory in Springfield, IL. He's had a private chef since 2008. So you know. He lies about everything. @NEWSMAX @NEWSMAXPodcastsCommunity noteObama's family lived in Chicago, not Springfield, during his Illinois state senate years. Cheesecake Factory opened its first Chicago location in 1995.
chicagotribune.com/1995/12/01/che…
elledecor.com/life-culture/a…
4
5
44
1,715
Dear algorithm: feed me ALL of this content over the next week. I want to have strong opinions about rural Kansas and exurban Maine by Tuesday.
Ohio is one I know a bit but this is great. And Delaware County always makes me think of @durhamlau!
0
1
7
1,238
Addisu Demissie retweeted
BREAKING: Senate Majority PAC is launching our first $750K statewide ad campaign in South Carolina!
The choice is clear: an empty suit controlled by special interests or a fighter who will take them on, fight corruption, and lower costs.
The choice is clear: an empty suit controlled by special interests or a fighter who will take them on, fight corruption, and lower costs.
15
111
426
17,040
Is that….optimism emanating from
Schale’s keyboard? #floridaman
Schale’s keyboard? #floridaman
My latest take on what’s happening in Florida - and mostly me trying to wrap my head around the GOP turnout numbers
Link: open.substack.com/pub/manofflori…
1
0
17
3,299
Had to rep @valkyries talking Texas with @AliciaMenendez on MSNOW this AM. No offense but same time tomorrow I’ll be watching the game out of one eye 🫠
3
1
27
1,774
I did my part. I called the switchboard.
GOP sources say the President's team was getting a flurry of phone calls last night - even before he left Ohio - asking for more in person events. With time the only real finite resource, White House opting for more tele-rallies. Sunday rally in Iowa still up in the air.
3
5
204
109,978
Addisu Demissie retweeted
Hamilton’s 49% in CNN’s new poll is a winning number. In 2020, Marshall’s underperformance was largely driven by the Libertarian taking 5%.
There’s a Libertarian running this year, too…
There’s a Libertarian running this year, too…
0
3
59
2,766
Addisu Demissie retweeted
We all have PTSD, but it’s ok to hope this year.
We can win everywhere. *
They have money. We’ve got people.
Time to be bullish.
5️⃣ days.
*knock on wood ( it’s ok to be superstitious too)
We can win everywhere. *
They have money. We’ve got people.
Time to be bullish.
5️⃣ days.
*knock on wood ( it’s ok to be superstitious too)
Democrats won this drop. Democrats need a couple more of these Maricopa drops to go this way and next Tuesday is gonna be a great day.
1
4
21
2,252
This is a really, really smart framing.
New @CookPolitical: Plenty of GOP districts that were unthinkable targets at the outset of the cycle are now in deep jeopardy (#IA02, #KY06, #TX15 for example). But when you consider their Democratic DNA, maybe it shouldn't come as such a shock.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…
0
3
27
9,060
It’s impossible to be shocked by Trump anymore after 11 years of this, but a closing midterm message about a golf course renovation in Washington DC is objectively wild boi behavior.
Trump says a White House staffer "was, sadly, hit violently in the chest" by a golf ball at East Potomac Golf Course because "the gaping holes in the driving range’s 'protective' netting are highly hazardous."
0
12
48
3,852
Those are big numbers in Ohio and Texas, but they are also big/huge states. $209 million in Iowa, a state with 2.1 million registered voters, and $133 million in Maine, which has less than 1 million, is crazy work. Crazy.
Texas and Ohio's Senate races have each surpassed $400 million.
Between the $1.17 billion in outside spending in the 80 House races and $1.93 billion in the 15 Senate races, the combined outside spending in the targeted races has passed $3 billion.
3
8
21
3,432