Ellis Bates retweeted
How did Lula come from behind to crush Bolsonaro?
In short, turnout.
Bolsonaro's vote share barely moved. Lula banked millions of votes from those who didn't vote in 1st round and won eliminated candidates' votes.
A remarkable mobilisation. 2nd round turnout usually below 1st.
In short, turnout.
Bolsonaro's vote share barely moved. Lula banked millions of votes from those who didn't vote in 1st round and won eliminated candidates' votes.
A remarkable mobilisation. 2nd round turnout usually below 1st.
14
356
1,104
26,439
A key factor in Lula’s Round 2 victory: states where he had the highest Round 1 vote shares generally shifted most toward him, and vice versa.
Rio de Janeiro was the biggest outlier: he won 39% in Round 1 but gained 7.4 points, the largest swing of any state.
Rio de Janeiro was the biggest outlier: he won 39% in Round 1 but gained 7.4 points, the largest swing of any state.
1
4
41
1,375
Ellis Bates retweeted
Thank you to everyone who followed along tonight at ElectionEnjoyer.com.
This Brazilian election has been one of the craziest I’ve ever followed. Be sure to tune in to VoteHub’s live coverage of the midterm elections next week!
This Brazilian election has been one of the craziest I’ve ever followed. Be sure to tune in to VoteHub’s live coverage of the midterm elections next week!
AND THERE IT IS. LULA HAS BEEN PROJECTED THE WINNER.
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14
214
5,509
Brazil’s presidential runoff is razor-thin. With over 50% of valid votes counted, Lula narrowly leads Bolsonaro and has improved on his Round 1 margins in every state.
.@ElxMapping’s estimate gives Lula a 94% chance of winning.
.@ElxMapping’s estimate gives Lula a 94% chance of winning.
1
4
43
2,481
Ellis Bates retweeted
NEW: Inside VoteHub’s 2026 Donor Map
@ryanjmccomb examines the small-dollar gap, the geography of Republican and Democratic giving, and how campaign money flows across state lines.
votehub.com/2026/10/24/ins…
@ryanjmccomb examines the small-dollar gap, the geography of Republican and Democratic giving, and how campaign money flows across state lines.
votehub.com/2026/10/24/ins…
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11
48
20,931
Ellis Bates retweeted
Really proud of what the whole team and I have built here. We get to do some incredible things at VoteHub!
Here’s a walkthrough of the new donor map and a bit of analysis on where campaign money is coming from this cycle.
Here’s a walkthrough of the new donor map and a bit of analysis on where campaign money is coming from this cycle.
🚨🚨 We are thrilled to launch the VoteHub 2026 National Donor Map.
See where nearly $2 billion in donations to House and Senate campaigns came from, county by county, for every 2026 race and nearly 2,900 candidates. 🧵
2
16
119
14,035
Ellis Bates retweeted
With Texas Senate turnout set to approach presidential levels, it's worth examining 2024 nonvoters.
Hispanic voters are streaming into the electorate at remarkable rates, alongside Asian voters. Both groups are expected to favor Talarico and Hinojosa.
Hispanic voters are streaming into the electorate at remarkable rates, alongside Asian voters. Both groups are expected to favor Talarico and Hinojosa.
34
165
1,203
95,433
Ellis Bates retweeted
This isn't entirely surprising! VoteHub fellow @ElliscbIV wrote an excellent article examining how Black turnout could surge (and did surge in primaries) following the Callais decision.
votehub.com/2026/07/28/a-p…
votehub.com/2026/07/28/a-p…
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6
82
4,104
Black voters make up 32% of Louisiana’s population and are matching that share in early voting so far, just 4 points below their 36% share of the primary electorate.
As Black voters respond to Callais, differential turnout poses a growing risk for Republicans in the Deep South.
As Black voters respond to Callais, differential turnout poses a growing risk for Republicans in the Deep South.
This just doesn’t happen often
The racial differential turnout in Louisiana is quite stunning
2022: 74-24 +50 White
2026: 64-32 +32 White
An 18-pt swing towards Black voters from 2022 ‼️
3
42
179
12,685
Ellis Bates retweeted
It’s true a large number of “Democrats” are going to vote for Mike Rogers. But you can also expect there to be “Republicans” voting for Abdul El-Sayed. Both candidates are reaching across the aisle in the final days of their campaigns.
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26
247
27,436
This ad perfectly encapsulates the risky bet Democrats made in nominating El-Sayed:
Gaining access to a unique type of messaging that Stevens could never deliver.
Gaining access to a unique type of messaging that Stevens could never deliver.
A head-turning new "Michigan First" ad from @AbdulElSayed - he names some issue he agrees with MAGA voters on, then plays a supercut of Fox News hosts/Tucker praising him or bashing Mike Rogers. semafor.com/article/10/23/…
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34
777
86,138
Ellis Bates retweeted
Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the problem in Texas isn't Paxton; it's the GOP collapse due to Trump's decision to govern like George W. Bush. See the Governor's race.
VoteHub/Verasight Poll: Texas Governor
Likely Voters:
🔴 Greg Abbott – 47.7%
🔵 Gina Hinojosa – 46.4%
Registered Voters:
🔴 Greg Abbott – 47.6%
🔵 Gina Hinojosa – 44.9%
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57
392
15,099
Ellis Bates retweeted
The GOP’s issue in North Carolina is the widening partisan gap between 3-of-3 voters and lower-propensity voters.
Even if Republicans pull even among 3-of-3 voters, a tall order itself, the electorate could still be D+6 by party registration if current trends continue.
Even if Republicans pull even among 3-of-3 voters, a tall order itself, the electorate could still be D+6 by party registration if current trends continue.
12
45
346
44,623