Trump brought regime change to Texas faster than to Tehran

pounding the table on $HNRG
being mislabeled as a AI data center play when its just a power shortage play they sold almost their entire capacity for the next 5 years at much higher prices
not worried at all that wont be able to sell the new power plant capacity at good pricing

the company paid a hefty amount for 2 gas turbines and have not financed the entire cost yet so some are worried that the company will be left holding the bag
its an easy double from here if and when they sign a power deal and finance the rest of it

they could do $3 in eps in 2029 once the new plant is up and running

even looking at it from a AI pov the recent Democratic wins should make it more likely Indiana gets a larger share of data center market

Ben Shapiro says Ron DeSantis “is going to run” in 2028 and that you should “absolutely short sell Rubio. Marco is not gonna run.”

He walks through the math live, with Kalshi’s numbers on screen.

SHAPIRO: “Governor DeSantis in Florida who already ran once, if he waits another ot really relevant. So Ron is going to run.”

SHAPIRO: “We have the [Kalshi] numbers here, saying that JD is the favorite at 30%, Rubio at 23% and [DeSantis] 12. You should absolutely short sell Rubio. Marco is not gonna run.”

SHAPIRO: “Number one, 2028 is likely a poison chalice. Number two, if he runs against JD and he loses to JD, he’s toast. […] So if you’re Rubio, every math ends with, I’m not gonna run.”

CONTEXT: The latest Kalshi odds put JD at 27%, Rubio at 25%, and DeSantis at 19%. DeSantis is up 7 POINTS since last night.

I hope (and think) we are likely to be entering a prime biotech deal-making spree over the next few months.

Pharma valuations have been soaring (and seemingly will continue to do so today), all while quality biotechs that *could* be M&A targets have been relentlessly abused over the last several months.

BTW, side note: If you're looking at the $XBI to determine that "Meh, it hasn't actually been that bad for SMID bios. Look at $XBI in the $150s!!!" - you are absolutely missing the true picture of what has been going on....badly. FORGET the $XBI you think you know - that index is long dead, filled with large cap stocks that DO NOT represent what $XBI used to represent. *And* consider the components that have driven *all* of the upside in the biotech indices of late...it has almost exclusively been GARBAGE that has rallied, leveling out the appearance of damage on the surface, all while under the hood the "quality" stuff has been absolutely demolished.

Let's review the setup for an M&A frenzy here...
➡️Pharma revenues have been looking great. The cash is there, and the confidence in the business is there.
➡️Pharma stock prices are looking even better, despite what has actually been a pretty abysmal series of high-impact clinical trial failures from pharma since around the middle of this year.
➡️The patent cliffs are still there, largely unaddressed. The biggest in history.
➡️Not only that, but the cliffs are actively steepening, because the revenue streams that have (largely) been driving pharma valuations higher and higher are the very ones that are about to run out...making the need to act and fill those impending gaps even more dire (there is MUCH more for a pharma to defend going toward a patent cliff when their stock is +50% YoY - dire loss of revenue streams is simply not being priced in recently...they have to act the make that an actual reality)
➡️The elections are now out of the way and we basically have the guarantee of gridlock for at least 2 more years (healthcare's absolute favorite setup).
➡️Rates/cost of capital are almost certainly coming down as part of last night's election results
➡️The 2 biggest healthcare conferences of the year happen within the next 3 months, and (hopefully) pharma will be eager to keep their momentum going by having comprehensive plans for how they plan to manage their patent cliffs ready to go for investors by JPM...
➡️All the while, "quality" biotech M&A targets have actually been in a legitimate bear market over recent months (again, SPARE ME with references to $XBI - this is a borderline irrelevant datapoint today). This is perhaps the most interesting facet of the setup to me. It seems that absolutely everything points to a near-term resumption in biotech M&A after a several-month drought, yet the M&A targets continue to price in significant skepticism...This *further* incentives deals to happen, as valuations are quite palatable for pharma. Somehow, pharma's desperation can be fully evident WITHOUT the market eroding their bargaining power by bidding up their M&A targets. Really a wonderful setup for deals IMO.

Pharma is flying as high as ever despite many recent clinical-stage setbacks. Gridlock grants them a political tailwind. Their patent cliffs not only draw closer with time, but also steeper with their ever-growing revenues and valuations, which have known expiration dates. All the while, the solution to their problem is no secret: M&A. Yet, the very obvious targets of all these aligning incentives have traded down relentlessly over recent months...Pharma gets the solution to their problems on sale right now despite the fact we all can see they are becoming increasingly mandatory buyers?

Let's hope this is the perfect storm for some serious deal making over the next 3-4 months...the setup certainly looks ripe to me! I predict we will see rapid and *sharp* changes in biotech M&A target valuations as soon as we see a couple decent deals take place...Fingers crossed!

one new buy one sale in the sharkbiotech.com portfolio

$FSLR ripping and $CIFR dumping tells you everything you need to know about how the market is interpreting the election.

Both moves look like massive overreactions to perceived policy implications that may never actually materialize. Narrative repricing masquerading as fundamental repricing…

$MRK $AMGN green while $XBI down another thing that makes no sense

not sure it makes sense that $IREN is down 10% while $MSFT who is their main customer is up 7%

sadly the panic was overnight and was completely gone by 4am

$AMZN up a mere $50 from last Thursday nights low

the overnight range in the S&P futures was wider than the range for an entire month from mid August to mid September

Dems will get 55 Senate seats and 250+ House seats. Looking at the Senate map and considering such a massive House margin, it is very unlikely Republicans will recapture the Congress in 2028. Might not have a shot at Senate control until 2032.

Assuming Republicans lose the seats where prediction markets have the Democrats at 90+% to win, that would produce 55 Democrat Senate seats.

Chance of confirming a worthy successor to Justice Thomas and/or Alito during President Trump’s term: Zero.

Chance of confirming a worthy successor during a hypothetical GOP admin 2029-2033: probably zero (GOP won’t be able to recapture enough seats in 28).

telling you guys in advance big gap down on Dem sweep I will be a buyer

FWIW the market moved against me now 36 cents
last 30 minutes all the prediction markets have moved in Dems favor

Bill Ackman prepping for tonight’s midterm results

has any president done a self own to hurt his standing and his party worse than what Trump did with the tariff nonsense