大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

3h

The Hormuz Letter

@HormuzLetter

Oct 23

BREAKING: Central banks around the world are now quietly stockpiling 4 times as much gold as usual and moving it out of the US, per Goldman Sachs, amid senior officials warning that the gold is "no longer safe" in Trump’s hands.

Purchases hit 79 tonnes in August against a pre-2022 average of 17, while holdings at the New York Fed fell 40 tonnes and holdings at the Bank of England rose 46.

China was the largest buyer at 25 tonnes, aimed at rapidly diversifying away from the US dollar and G7 currencies.

On the storage side, Netherlands moved 86 tonnes out of New York and Ottawa, citing "increasing geopolitical unrest." France sold 129 tonnes in New York and bought gold in Europe instead.

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

3h

The Hormuz Letter

@HormuzLetter

Oct 23

BREAKING: Central banks around the world are now quietly stockpiling 4 times as much gold as usual and moving it out of the US, per Goldman Sachs, amid senior officials warning that the gold is "no longer safe" in Trump’s hands.

Purchases hit 79 tonnes in August against a pre-2022 average of 17, while holdings at the New York Fed fell 40 tonnes and holdings at the Bank of England rose 46.

China was the largest buyer at 25 tonnes, aimed at rapidly diversifying away from the US dollar and G7 currencies.

On the storage side, Netherlands moved 86 tonnes out of New York and Ottawa, citing "increasing geopolitical unrest." France sold 129 tonnes in New York and bought gold in Europe instead.

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 22

ブルームバーグニュース

@BloombergJapan

Oct 22

ソフトバンクGの時価総額が、6月の過去最高約49兆3050億円から半分以下に減少した。世界的な信用懸念が広がる中、巨額のAI投資や資金調達への不安が強まっている。10月の株価騰落率はマイナス33%と、日経平均225銘柄で最下位に。

📸 Toru Hanai/Bloomberg
bloom.bg/4sgOhyK

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 22

ブルームバーグニュース

@BloombergJapan

Oct 22

ソフトバンクGの時価総額が、6月の過去最高約49兆3050億円から半分以下に減少した。世界的な信用懸念が広がる中、巨額のAI投資や資金調達への不安が強まっている。10月の株価騰落率はマイナス33%と、日経平均225銘柄で最下位に。

📸 Toru Hanai/Bloomberg
bloom.bg/4sgOhyK

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 22

ブルームバーグニュース

@BloombergJapan

Oct 22

ソフトバンクGの時価総額が、6月の過去最高約49兆3050億円から半分以下に減少した。世界的な信用懸念が広がる中、巨額のAI投資や資金調達への不安が強まっている。10月の株価騰落率はマイナス33%と、日経平均225銘柄で最下位に。

📸 Toru Hanai/Bloomberg
bloom.bg/4sgOhyK

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 22

Mark

@Mark4XX

Oct 21

RAY DALIO IS 87% IN GOLD: SMART MONEY JUST MADE THE CASE FOR STAYING IN GOLD

Gold has been a brutal grind for anyone who bought in the last year and a half. Negative sentiment is loud, red candles keep appearing, and the urge to walk away feels rational. Yet one portfolio 2026, undercuts that entire impulse and reveals why the under-the-hood picture does not match the frustration.

THE CORE THESIS: ONE GRAPH OVERRIDES THE SENTIMENT
➡️ Ray Dalio’s holdings show 87% allocated to gold ETFs as of June 30, 2026.
➡️ That figure is not a modest hedge; it is an extreme concentration that would already raise eyebrows at 30%.
➡️ Morgan Stanley’s earlier 20% gold suggestion was widely called unrealistic hype, yet this portfolio sits more than four times higher.
➡️ The language is unambiguous: one of the most experienced cycle readers alive is positioned as if gold is the primary asset, not an afterthought.

WHAT THE ALLOCATION ACTUALLY IMPLIES
➡️ Even after adjusting for age and wealth protection, an 87% gold ETF weight remains an outlier that few on Wall Street would match.
➡️ The minimum takeaway is that a portfolio with no substantial gold position sits on the wrong side of this positioning.
➡️ A 20% allocation, once viewed as extreme, now looks closer to a conservative baseline when measured against this benchmark.
➡️ Gold itself, not the miners, is framed as the core holding; the miners function as the higher-octane overlay once the base position is in place.

THE BOTTOM LINE
The frustration is real and the grind has been painful, yet the combination of an 87% institutional gold weight and a positive RSI divergence that mirrors the pre-August setup argues against panic selling. This is the signal that separates emotional exits from the positioning that has already been executed by one of the sharpest cycle observers in markets.
#Gold #RayDalio #GoldETFs #SmartMoney #RSIDivergence #PortfolioAllocation #DontSellGold

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 22

Mark

@Mark4XX

Oct 21

RAY DALIO IS 87% IN GOLD: SMART MONEY JUST MADE THE CASE FOR STAYING IN GOLD

Gold has been a brutal grind for anyone who bought in the last year and a half. Negative sentiment is loud, red candles keep appearing, and the urge to walk away feels rational. Yet one portfolio 2026, undercuts that entire impulse and reveals why the under-the-hood picture does not match the frustration.

THE CORE THESIS: ONE GRAPH OVERRIDES THE SENTIMENT
➡️ Ray Dalio’s holdings show 87% allocated to gold ETFs as of June 30, 2026.
➡️ That figure is not a modest hedge; it is an extreme concentration that would already raise eyebrows at 30%.
➡️ Morgan Stanley’s earlier 20% gold suggestion was widely called unrealistic hype, yet this portfolio sits more than four times higher.
➡️ The language is unambiguous: one of the most experienced cycle readers alive is positioned as if gold is the primary asset, not an afterthought.

WHAT THE ALLOCATION ACTUALLY IMPLIES
➡️ Even after adjusting for age and wealth protection, an 87% gold ETF weight remains an outlier that few on Wall Street would match.
➡️ The minimum takeaway is that a portfolio with no substantial gold position sits on the wrong side of this positioning.
➡️ A 20% allocation, once viewed as extreme, now looks closer to a conservative baseline when measured against this benchmark.
➡️ Gold itself, not the miners, is framed as the core holding; the miners function as the higher-octane overlay once the base position is in place.

THE BOTTOM LINE
The frustration is real and the grind has been painful, yet the combination of an 87% institutional gold weight and a positive RSI divergence that mirrors the pre-August setup argues against panic selling. This is the signal that separates emotional exits from the positioning that has already been executed by one of the sharpest cycle observers in markets.
#Gold #RayDalio #GoldETFs #SmartMoney #RSIDivergence #PortfolioAllocation #DontSellGold

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 22

ブルームバーグニュース

@BloombergJapan

Oct 22

ソフトバンクGの時価総額が、6月の過去最高約49兆3050億円から半分以下に減少した。世界的な信用懸念が広がる中、巨額のAI投資や資金調達への不安が強まっている。10月の株価騰落率はマイナス33%と、日経平均225銘柄で最下位に。

📸 Toru Hanai/Bloomberg
bloom.bg/4sgOhyK

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 22

Mark

@Mark4XX

Oct 21

RAY DALIO IS 87% IN GOLD: SMART MONEY JUST MADE THE CASE FOR STAYING IN GOLD

Gold has been a brutal grind for anyone who bought in the last year and a half. Negative sentiment is loud, red candles keep appearing, and the urge to walk away feels rational. Yet one portfolio 2026, undercuts that entire impulse and reveals why the under-the-hood picture does not match the frustration.

THE CORE THESIS: ONE GRAPH OVERRIDES THE SENTIMENT
➡️ Ray Dalio’s holdings show 87% allocated to gold ETFs as of June 30, 2026.
➡️ That figure is not a modest hedge; it is an extreme concentration that would already raise eyebrows at 30%.
➡️ Morgan Stanley’s earlier 20% gold suggestion was widely called unrealistic hype, yet this portfolio sits more than four times higher.
➡️ The language is unambiguous: one of the most experienced cycle readers alive is positioned as if gold is the primary asset, not an afterthought.

WHAT THE ALLOCATION ACTUALLY IMPLIES
➡️ Even after adjusting for age and wealth protection, an 87% gold ETF weight remains an outlier that few on Wall Street would match.
➡️ The minimum takeaway is that a portfolio with no substantial gold position sits on the wrong side of this positioning.
➡️ A 20% allocation, once viewed as extreme, now looks closer to a conservative baseline when measured against this benchmark.
➡️ Gold itself, not the miners, is framed as the core holding; the miners function as the higher-octane overlay once the base position is in place.

THE BOTTOM LINE
The frustration is real and the grind has been painful, yet the combination of an 87% institutional gold weight and a positive RSI divergence that mirrors the pre-August setup argues against panic selling. This is the signal that separates emotional exits from the positioning that has already been executed by one of the sharpest cycle observers in markets.
#Gold #RayDalio #GoldETFs #SmartMoney #RSIDivergence #PortfolioAllocation #DontSellGold

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 22

Rashad Hajiyev

@hajiyev_rashad

Oct 22

Gold could be forming a major bottom during the next few days into FOMC on October 28, 2026. I expect precious metals to start a run up into year end early November...

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 22

Rashad Hajiyev

@hajiyev_rashad

Oct 22

Gold could be forming a major bottom during the next few days into FOMC on October 28, 2026. I expect precious metals to start a run up into year end early November...

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 22

Mark

@Mark4XX

Oct 21

RAY DALIO IS 87% IN GOLD: SMART MONEY JUST MADE THE CASE FOR STAYING IN GOLD

Gold has been a brutal grind for anyone who bought in the last year and a half. Negative sentiment is loud, red candles keep appearing, and the urge to walk away feels rational. Yet one portfolio 2026, undercuts that entire impulse and reveals why the under-the-hood picture does not match the frustration.

THE CORE THESIS: ONE GRAPH OVERRIDES THE SENTIMENT
➡️ Ray Dalio’s holdings show 87% allocated to gold ETFs as of June 30, 2026.
➡️ That figure is not a modest hedge; it is an extreme concentration that would already raise eyebrows at 30%.
➡️ Morgan Stanley’s earlier 20% gold suggestion was widely called unrealistic hype, yet this portfolio sits more than four times higher.
➡️ The language is unambiguous: one of the most experienced cycle readers alive is positioned as if gold is the primary asset, not an afterthought.

WHAT THE ALLOCATION ACTUALLY IMPLIES
➡️ Even after adjusting for age and wealth protection, an 87% gold ETF weight remains an outlier that few on Wall Street would match.
➡️ The minimum takeaway is that a portfolio with no substantial gold position sits on the wrong side of this positioning.
➡️ A 20% allocation, once viewed as extreme, now looks closer to a conservative baseline when measured against this benchmark.
➡️ Gold itself, not the miners, is framed as the core holding; the miners function as the higher-octane overlay once the base position is in place.

THE BOTTOM LINE
The frustration is real and the grind has been painful, yet the combination of an 87% institutional gold weight and a positive RSI divergence that mirrors the pre-August setup argues against panic selling. This is the signal that separates emotional exits from the positioning that has already been executed by one of the sharpest cycle observers in markets.
#Gold #RayDalio #GoldETFs #SmartMoney #RSIDivergence #PortfolioAllocation #DontSellGold

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 22

Mark

@Mark4XX

Oct 21

RAY DALIO IS 87% IN GOLD: SMART MONEY JUST MADE THE CASE FOR STAYING IN GOLD

Gold has been a brutal grind for anyone who bought in the last year and a half. Negative sentiment is loud, red candles keep appearing, and the urge to walk away feels rational. Yet one portfolio 2026, undercuts that entire impulse and reveals why the under-the-hood picture does not match the frustration.

THE CORE THESIS: ONE GRAPH OVERRIDES THE SENTIMENT
➡️ Ray Dalio’s holdings show 87% allocated to gold ETFs as of June 30, 2026.
➡️ That figure is not a modest hedge; it is an extreme concentration that would already raise eyebrows at 30%.
➡️ Morgan Stanley’s earlier 20% gold suggestion was widely called unrealistic hype, yet this portfolio sits more than four times higher.
➡️ The language is unambiguous: one of the most experienced cycle readers alive is positioned as if gold is the primary asset, not an afterthought.

WHAT THE ALLOCATION ACTUALLY IMPLIES
➡️ Even after adjusting for age and wealth protection, an 87% gold ETF weight remains an outlier that few on Wall Street would match.
➡️ The minimum takeaway is that a portfolio with no substantial gold position sits on the wrong side of this positioning.
➡️ A 20% allocation, once viewed as extreme, now looks closer to a conservative baseline when measured against this benchmark.
➡️ Gold itself, not the miners, is framed as the core holding; the miners function as the higher-octane overlay once the base position is in place.

THE BOTTOM LINE
The frustration is real and the grind has been painful, yet the combination of an 87% institutional gold weight and a positive RSI divergence that mirrors the pre-August setup argues against panic selling. This is the signal that separates emotional exits from the positioning that has already been executed by one of the sharpest cycle observers in markets.
#Gold #RayDalio #GoldETFs #SmartMoney #RSIDivergence #PortfolioAllocation #DontSellGold

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

24 Mar 2025

Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

24 Mar 2025

How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle

As you probably know by now, I'm in a stage of life that has led me to want to pass along previously undisclosed principles that helped me, rather than to keep them to myself. Over my more than 50 years of operating as a global macro research, I discovered some timeless and universal cause/effect relationships that helped me successfully navigate what was likely to happen. These principles are not widely understood and have proven to be invaluable, so I think they can help a lot of people.

I previously wrote two books, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises and Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, which describe the mechanics behind what happened and is now happening. I am about to put out How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, which explains the mechanics behind big debt cycles and debt crises because these mechanics are especially important to understand now.

If you want a copy of How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, it's now available for pre-order at Amazon (bit.ly/4l1BlZQ), Barnes & Noble (bit.ly/4c3fTj2), and other booksellers. It has just gone to the printer and will be on sale June 3. I have also been sharing parts of it online which you can get for free here: bit.ly/4c57ATQ

#howcountriesgobroke #principles

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 15

Lukas Ekwueme

@ekwufinance

Oct 14

The US can't afford the next recession.

During recessions, deficits blow out, forcing the Fed to print even more money to finance the government.

- GFC: -3% -> -10%
- Covid: -5% -> -15%
- Current deficit: -6%

So in the next recession, we could see deficits of 13-16% of GDP at a timeepping back from funding the US.

Meaning not only would the deficit blow out, but US yields could surge as well.

We don't own enough hard assets for what's coming.

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 14

Lukas Ekwueme

@ekwufinance

Oct 14

Russia is buying the gold dip... 5x the amount planned last month.

Between October 7 and November 6, Russia plans to buy $3.3B worth of gold and foreign currency.

All oil and gas revenues above the $59/barrel threshold will be directed to the National Wealth Fund to buy gold The East is buying as much physical gold as possible... they know what's coming

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 14

Kitco NEWS

@KitcoNewsNOW

Oct 14

Gold: A rally to $5400 from here?

1. Money continues to flow into sovereign bonds around the world… but what kind of money is it?

2. First, it’s fiat money, and that’s a problem. Second, it’s money that’s aggressively leveraged by hedge funds, which is another big problem.

3. risis be a sovereign debt crisis? ...

kitco.com/opinion/2026-1…

Commentary by Stewart Thomson

大恐慌時代を生き抜く知恵@bIQ3gpjRPcU1abb

Oct 14

Lukas Ekwueme

@ekwufinance

Oct 14

China is putting a floor under the gold price.

China's central bank gold purchases:

- March: +4.98t | Gold: $5.4k
- April: +8.09t | Gold: $4.6k
- May: +9.95t | Gold: $4.4k
- June: +14.93t | Gold: $4.2k
- July: +19.91t | Gold: $4.1k
- Aug: +20.22t | Gold: $4.3k
- Sep: +23.02t | the gold price went, the more China bought.

September marked China's largest monthly purchase in 3 years and its 23rd consecutive month of official gold buying.

China is draining physical gold supplies from the global market as it builds a gold-backed financial system.

We don't own enough gold for what's coming.