How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle
As you probably know by now, I'm in a stage of life that has led me to want to pass along previously undisclosed principles that helped me, rather than to keep them to myself. Over my more than 50 years of operating as a global macro research, I discovered some timeless and universal cause/effect relationships that helped me successfully navigate what was likely to happen. These principles are not widely understood and have proven to be invaluable, so I think they can help a lot of people.
I previously wrote two books, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises and Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, which describe the mechanics behind what happened and is now happening. I am about to put out How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, which explains the mechanics behind big debt cycles and debt crises because these mechanics are especially important to understand now.
If you want a copy of How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, it's now available for pre-order at Amazon (bit.ly/4l1BlZQ), Barnes & Noble (bit.ly/4c3fTj2), and other booksellers. It has just gone to the printer and will be on sale June 3. I have also been sharing parts of it online which you can get for free here: bit.ly/4c57ATQ
#howcountriesgobroke #principles
As you probably know by now, I'm in a stage of life that has led me to want to pass along previously undisclosed principles that helped me, rather than to keep them to myself. Over my more than 50 years of operating as a global macro research, I discovered some timeless and universal cause/effect relationships that helped me successfully navigate what was likely to happen. These principles are not widely understood and have proven to be invaluable, so I think they can help a lot of people.
I previously wrote two books, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises and Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, which describe the mechanics behind what happened and is now happening. I am about to put out How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, which explains the mechanics behind big debt cycles and debt crises because these mechanics are especially important to understand now.
If you want a copy of How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, it's now available for pre-order at Amazon (bit.ly/4l1BlZQ), Barnes & Noble (bit.ly/4c3fTj2), and other booksellers. It has just gone to the printer and will be on sale June 3. I have also been sharing parts of it online which you can get for free here: bit.ly/4c57ATQ
#howcountriesgobroke #principles
Mar 24, 2025 · 7:52 PM UTC
171
359
3,016
749,356
@RayDalio Mr. Dalio,
Education should be free, why don’t you self publish and have people download for free.
Education should be free, why don’t you self publish and have people download for free.
5
0
14
9,867
@GreatY111 I did. It’s posted online in PDF form that anyone can get for free here: economicprinciples.org/how-countries-…
5
16
175
10,001
@RayDalio When can we have it on audile ray bhai ? Please launch it soon and hopefully in your soothing voice 😅
0
0
10
11,501
@RayDalio Mr. Dalio,
How far away is Canada from going broke?
I'm estimating 2034
Any guidance appreciated.
How far away is Canada from going broke?
I'm estimating 2034
Any guidance appreciated.
3
0
6
12,254
@RayDalio Looking forward, Ray. Thank you for sharing this wisdom. Your animated economic videos are my go-to reference for economic education sought by friends and family.
0
0
0
2,035
@RayDaliospot on—understanding the debt cycle isn’t just academic; it’s survival. Governments borrow beyond their means, inflate away obligations, and ultimately devalue their currencies. The playbook never changes. The question isn’t if the system resets, but when—and who’s prepared. That’s why gold and silver have been the go-to hedge for centuries. When the cycle turns, paper wealth burns, but real assets endure. #SoundMoney #Gold #Silver #DebtCrisis
2
2
31
7,784
@RayDalio Hello Mr. Dalio. I just saw you and started following you. They had made a news article about you as a Billionaire investor. I saw it there. I hope you carry a good angel in your heart.
I was scammed. My wife and 3 daughters and I are penniless. Can you help us? Please..🙏🙏
I was scammed. My wife and 3 daughters and I are penniless. Can you help us? Please..🙏🙏
13
0
3
518
@RayDalio Countries go broke because they pointlessly give bailout money to banks that don’t need it.
3
0
11
3,823
@RayDalio Few people can turn macroeconomic mechanics into timeless frameworks.
Your work shaped how I read cycles — and founders. Looking forward to this one.
Your work shaped how I read cycles — and founders. Looking forward to this one.
0
0
4
3,280
@RayDaliove about Ray is his eternal optimism.
But seriously, here is one of the few people who recognises just how far - let's say - out-of-cycle things can still really go.
Who has committed a serious degree of study to the problem of the economic side of civilisational cycles, which does at least indirectly include some key relevant political dynamics & outcomes.
And who after all that: is openly tossing a torch onto the beacon - quite politely - to say:
We are not heading toward a good place; and it appears to be fast approaching.
I have watched & read him a bit before, but I thought it very civil of him to go onto the @TCNetwork and actually talk about Absolute Polarization - even telling Tucker (in jest) "grow up" (~'things are worse than even you think; you're being a bit idealistic').
In that sense, he's almost a kind of anti-Soros (within the hedge-fund world). In that he does not seek to drive a system (he doesn't like but benefits & has a lot of influence over) onto the rocks. But actually seems to wish to tamp down the most damaging forces (from any quarter) & bring about more peace & (indicates) fair order into the system.
I don't really know "how he made his money". But I think his work on cycles (and where we are) merits a careful look; and he has taken the time to write it in plain language, and give abbreviated accounts of it in articles & interactive interviews which make that easier.
A lot of it seems to be common sense, but it is a common sense distilled down from large-scale complexities within cycles & disequilibria - that are difficult to gather up all the data about & boil down. Which he has really gone to great length to do. To the point that: you can use it to have a solid public discussion about Our Impending Crisis/es, on shared ground (as I believe he fully intends).
But seriously, here is one of the few people who recognises just how far - let's say - out-of-cycle things can still really go.
Who has committed a serious degree of study to the problem of the economic side of civilisational cycles, which does at least indirectly include some key relevant political dynamics & outcomes.
And who after all that: is openly tossing a torch onto the beacon - quite politely - to say:
We are not heading toward a good place; and it appears to be fast approaching.
I have watched & read him a bit before, but I thought it very civil of him to go onto the @TCNetwork and actually talk about Absolute Polarization - even telling Tucker (in jest) "grow up" (~'things are worse than even you think; you're being a bit idealistic').
In that sense, he's almost a kind of anti-Soros (within the hedge-fund world). In that he does not seek to drive a system (he doesn't like but benefits & has a lot of influence over) onto the rocks. But actually seems to wish to tamp down the most damaging forces (from any quarter) & bring about more peace & (indicates) fair order into the system.
I don't really know "how he made his money". But I think his work on cycles (and where we are) merits a careful look; and he has taken the time to write it in plain language, and give abbreviated accounts of it in articles & interactive interviews which make that easier.
A lot of it seems to be common sense, but it is a common sense distilled down from large-scale complexities within cycles & disequilibria - that are difficult to gather up all the data about & boil down. Which he has really gone to great length to do. To the point that: you can use it to have a solid public discussion about Our Impending Crisis/es, on shared ground (as I believe he fully intends).
2
0
14
3,090
@RayDalio cash is trash or cash is king rn, king?
0
0
1
1,891
@RayDalio Wow, you are my inspiration ray and will surely read for it !
0
1
1
1,398
@RayDalio What’s your opinion of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary?
0
0
4
1,323
@RayDalio Thanks for sharing your experience. In a world where we can't even know the difference between competence/confidence I hope your advice falls at good ears.
0
0
2
315
@RayDalioinsights from a master of economic cycles! 📉💡 Your work on debt crises and global shifts has been indispensable for navigating today’s turbulent markets.
Question for the community: Which country’s debt trajectory keeps you up at night—and how would you apply Ray’s principles to avoid the ‘big broke’? Let’s crowdsource survival strategies!
Question for the community: Which country’s debt trajectory keeps you up at night—and how would you apply Ray’s principles to avoid the ‘big broke’? Let’s crowdsource survival strategies!
1
0
3
3,563
@RayDalio Thank you. I hope that Canada can get on to your radar.
2
0
0
187
@RayDalio Thank you for sharing your knowledge. Hopefully our leaders will read it too.
1
0
0
580
@RayDalio Dear Mr. Dalio, do you believe that real economic downturns could drive adoption of Web3 finance? How do you view #PINetwork’s vision for an inclusive financial system? Building on this, do you foresee a promising future for #PIJSWAP?"
0
0
2
162
@RayDalio Good interview on Meet the Press. Your description of the US debt problem reminds me of the problems we had in 🇸🇪 in the beginning of the 90's. I don't usually praise politicians, but they came together & did a good job. Today, we are prosperous w/ sound public finances🙂
1
0
1
51
@RayDalio Sir, you have opened my eyes and educated me on the harsh realities of our current political and economic situation.
I’m still hopeful that America can get out of this if we are willing to sacrifice and endure some lean years and austerity measures to get back on track.
I’m still hopeful that America can get out of this if we are willing to sacrifice and endure some lean years and austerity measures to get back on track.
1
0
1
1,168
@RayDalio I wonder how much you increased the suicide rate?
debby downer your sister?
debby downer your sister?
0
0
1
39
@RayDalio Fantastic, looking forward to read it
0
0
0
149
@RayDalio Love your heart to help people Ray. You have great books, YouTube videos, and podcast interviews.
1
0
1
467
@RayDalio I’m looking forward to the new book
《How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle》.
I’m sure it will be another bestseller.
Thank you for your excellent work and sharing!
Can’t wait for it! 🌺
《How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle》.
I’m sure it will be another bestseller.
Thank you for your excellent work and sharing!
Can’t wait for it! 🌺
0
0
0
560
@RayDalio If by “broke” you mean a country is unable to meet its financial obligations, no country that issues its own currency can go broke if those obligations are in its own currency. Currencies collapse because countries do, not the other way around.
3
0
3
952