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Fresh on the Newsletter:
The No-Hire No-Fire AI Economy
open.substack.com/pub/profstonge…
AI isn't coming for your job.
It's coming for your kid's job.
Because AI isn’t replacing experienced workers — they get better. It’s replacing junior staff and college grads.
The No-Hire No-Fire AI Economy
open.substack.com/pub/profstonge…
AI isn't coming for your job.
It's coming for your kid's job.
Because AI isn’t replacing experienced workers — they get better. It’s replacing junior staff and college grads.
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Peter St Onge, Ph.D. retweeted
A sportsbook profits from beating its customers.
A prediction market profits from bringing them together and producing better predictions 🎯
A prediction market profits from bringing them together and producing better predictions 🎯
Prediction markets host traders who buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes, with prices reflecting implied probabilities.
Here's how they compare with sportsbooks which set prices and act as the counterparty:
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Six months ago Wall Street was counting on rate cuts.
Now Kalshi odds are 80% for another hike.
A week before midterms.
Because Congress spent like drunken sailors fighting somebody else’s war.
Now Kalshi odds are 80% for another hike.
A week before midterms.
Because Congress spent like drunken sailors fighting somebody else’s war.
BREAKING: Traders expect high volatility ahead of midterms
80% chance Fed "hikes" interest rates this year
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A trader dumped $1.25 million into a political prediction market to move the odds. The market corrected in 9 seconds.
A fake poll tricked the media. The prediction market didn't budge.
When traders have their own money on the line, they're a lot harder to fool 🎯
A fake poll tricked the media. The prediction market didn't budge.
When traders have their own money on the line, they're a lot harder to fool 🎯
Tl;Dr: Trust markets… NOT pollsters
Market Signals Are An Essential Tax On Bad Information realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/…
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A sportsbook profits from beating its customers.
A prediction market profits from bringing them together and producing better predictions 🎯
A prediction market profits from bringing them together and producing better predictions 🎯
Prediction markets host traders who buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes, with prices reflecting implied probabilities.
Here's how they compare with sportsbooks which set prices and act as the counterparty:
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Peter St Onge, Ph.D. retweeted
Fresh on the Newsletter:
The No-Hire No-Fire AI Economy
open.substack.com/pub/profstonge…
AI isn't coming for your job.
It's coming for your kid's job.
Because AI isn’t replacing experienced workers — they get better. It’s replacing junior staff and college grads.
The No-Hire No-Fire AI Economy
open.substack.com/pub/profstonge…
AI isn't coming for your job.
It's coming for your kid's job.
Because AI isn’t replacing experienced workers — they get better. It’s replacing junior staff and college grads.
12
26
108
16,454
Peter St Onge, Ph.D. retweeted
The economy's booming but nobody's hiring.
Because AI is boosting experienced workers -- they can do more, so you don't need to hire.
While AI is replacing entry-level and new college grads.
The Boomer vs Gen Z fight is about to go nuclear.
Because AI is boosting experienced workers -- they can do more, so you don't need to hire.
While AI is replacing entry-level and new college grads.
The Boomer vs Gen Z fight is about to go nuclear.
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Peter St Onge, Ph.D. retweeted
@PhilWMagness @naval The paper Piketty & Zucman released before the Argentina runoff election in 2023 (that tried to knock out Milei) is a beautiful time capsule to complete economic ignorance. Dirty behavior. These men are activists, not academics. I can’t get past that track record.
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💯🎯
Correct.
Using Starlink, a civilian commercial service, for offensive drone strikes to kill people has never been allowed, nor should it be.
Starshield, a different system, is controlled by the US government. What they decide to do is up to them.
Ukraine military violated Starlink terms of service and used it for offensive drone strikes to kill people. That loophole was closed last week.
Starlink remains critical to the defense of Ukraine, as it is the only system that cannot be jammed or blown up, at least for now. Were Starlink to be turned off, the Ukrainian front line would collapse immediately. This is NOT a threat, it is simply a statement of fact.
Starlink was also crucial to preventing Russia from overrunning Ukraine in the early days of the war, as all other means of communication were destroyed or jammed by Russia.
SpaceX has done more to defend Ukraine than any private company on Earth BY FAR.
That said, I have nothing but UTTER CONTEMPT for the virtue-signaling evil warmongers who push for endless slaughter and offer no realistic solution to the conflict. May you burn in hell.
End of story.
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Peter St Onge, Ph.D. retweeted
Wall Street makes it complicated to hedge business risk -- or economic risk -- because the more complex the more fees.
This makes it more direct: Trade the event and presto you've got a hedge.
This makes it more direct: Trade the event and presto you've got a hedge.
Today we’re launching markets on Business Sector KPI’s.
Kalshi originally launched KPI markets to provide investors with direct exposure to the underlying events that move stocks.
If you had a thesis on Tesla’s Q4 car deliveries, instead of just buying or shorting the stock as enabled you to trade directly on the number of deliveries.
But what if your thesis isn't about a single company, but rather a broader, sector-wide trend?
If you are bullish on the adoption of robotics, delivery apps, or content streaming, you could buy a basket (ETF) of individual stocks in each sector, but in doing so, you become exposed to the external variables that influence stock prices.
Our new Sector KPI markets enable users to trade on aggregated performance.
For example, if you have a view on the mobile adoption of AI, you can now trade on the combined monthly downloads for Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok.
We have KPI markets for aggregated credit card spend, point of sale data, and foot traffic, with more to come.
These markets offer a new way to express an opinion and, of course, hedge risk.
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Peter St Onge, Ph.D. retweeted
One of the beautiful things about prediction markets is that if you're just really good at your thing, it doesn't matter at all who you are, you can make money.
All that matters is being right.
All that matters is being right.
What type of people are successful on Kalshi?
We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found:
Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds.
-79% went to public school
-They are over 2x as likely to have worked than on Wall Street
-65% are self-taught
The majority of top traders: :
-Actively seek out primary documents for research
-Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs
-Outperform the public on numeracy tests
The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.
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Wall Street makes it complicated to hedge business risk -- or economic risk -- because the more complex the more fees.
This makes it more direct: Trade the event and presto you've got a hedge.
This makes it more direct: Trade the event and presto you've got a hedge.
Today we’re launching markets on Business Sector KPI’s.
Kalshi originally launched KPI markets to provide investors with direct exposure to the underlying events that move stocks.
If you had a thesis on Tesla’s Q4 car deliveries, instead of just buying or shorting the stock as enabled you to trade directly on the number of deliveries.
But what if your thesis isn't about a single company, but rather a broader, sector-wide trend?
If you are bullish on the adoption of robotics, delivery apps, or content streaming, you could buy a basket (ETF) of individual stocks in each sector, but in doing so, you become exposed to the external variables that influence stock prices.
Our new Sector KPI markets enable users to trade on aggregated performance.
For example, if you have a view on the mobile adoption of AI, you can now trade on the combined monthly downloads for Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok.
We have KPI markets for aggregated credit card spend, point of sale data, and foot traffic, with more to come.
These markets offer a new way to express an opinion and, of course, hedge risk.
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Peter St Onge, Ph.D. retweeted
Ancient Greece feared oxen. Medieval Europe, the water wheel. Today, AI.
Every new tool sparks a jobs panic. Every time, productivity creates more work than it replaces.
The poor live like the middle class. The middle class, like the rich.
[@profstonge on The Last Trade]
Every new tool sparks a jobs panic. Every time, productivity creates more work than it replaces.
The poor live like the middle class. The middle class, like the rich.
[@profstonge on The Last Trade]
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