Peter Graae retweeted
In Germany they talk about the fantasy of "Ukraine winning"
Meanwhile on the streets of Ukraine, the people are fighting back. Not against the Russians, agaisnt the Dictatorship
Meanwhile on the streets of Ukraine, the people are fighting back. Not against the Russians, agaisnt the Dictatorship
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Peter Graae retweeted
And for people trying to dismiss this as New York Times propaganda, here is the official White House statement announcing the consolidation of data of American citizens.
I'm surprised they didn't name this initiative something like, "Freedom Grid" or "Patriot Prison."
whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…
I'm surprised they didn't name this initiative something like, "Freedom Grid" or "Patriot Prison."
whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…
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Europa måste skaffa nya värderingar cato.org/commentary/ukr…
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Peter Graae retweeted
Ole Sæter (ti seriemål) og Marius Broholm (åtte seriemål og to NM-mål) ble mestscorende for Rosenborg i offisielle kamper i 2024 🎯
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Peter Graae retweeted
Announcing the publication of my latest book,
Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War With Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine
amazon.com/dp/1733647376?…
Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War With Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine
amazon.com/dp/1733647376?…
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Peter Graae retweeted
@CarlMelin Hon är amerikansk patriot och varit i hetluften, i krig, under flera år. Att hon är emot krig är inte så konstigt då hon är inom krigssjukvården. Hon ser vad hetsarnas politik leder till.
Att demokraterna valde Biden eller Harris före henne var ett otroligt misstag.
Att demokraterna valde Biden eller Harris före henne var ett otroligt misstag.
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Peter Graae retweeted
I can't wait for four more years of Oney Trump content.
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Peter Graae retweeted
Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty has finally conceded "we overdid it" on Covid restrictions. So why haven’t many of the architects of this disaster been held accountable, asks Isabel Oakeshott. dailysceptic.org/2024/09/28/whi…
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Peter Graae retweeted
🇷🇺🇺🇦NEW ARTICLE: Kursk: Fighting Russia to the Last Ukrainian
READ HERE (read via Telegram since X blocks NEO links): t.me/brianlovethail…
"Despite the continued collapse of Ukraine’s fighting capacity because Ukraine is ultimately a proxy of the United States, a difficult and dangerous transition period lies ahead dependent on the extent to which the US seeks to mitigate Ukraine’s subsequent political and territorial collapse.
Only time will tell whether the US cuts and runs as it did in Afghanistan, or doubles down as it did in Syria. It should be pointed out, however, that the US withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021 to redirect its resources ahead of Russia’s SMO in 2022. Were the US to cut Ukraine loose, it would only be because the US requires resources for a larger, more dangerous conflict elsewhere – namely in the Asia-Pacific region against China.
Either way, when Ukraine’s fighting capacity nears its end, it is likely only wider conflict awaits."
READ HERE (read via Telegram since X blocks NEO links): t.me/brianlovethail…
"Despite the continued collapse of Ukraine’s fighting capacity because Ukraine is ultimately a proxy of the United States, a difficult and dangerous transition period lies ahead dependent on the extent to which the US seeks to mitigate Ukraine’s subsequent political and territorial collapse.
Only time will tell whether the US cuts and runs as it did in Afghanistan, or doubles down as it did in Syria. It should be pointed out, however, that the US withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021 to redirect its resources ahead of Russia’s SMO in 2022. Were the US to cut Ukraine loose, it would only be because the US requires resources for a larger, more dangerous conflict elsewhere – namely in the Asia-Pacific region against China.
Either way, when Ukraine’s fighting capacity nears its end, it is likely only wider conflict awaits."
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Peter Graae retweeted
Upprop: bordlägg och folkomrösta om DCA-avtalet aftonbladet.se/a/dRmAoB
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Peter Graae retweeted
This is NATO incrementalism / salami tactics: Gradual escalation to push back Russia's red lines. When Russia eventually retaliates, we will all scream "unprovoked".
- This was the format for NATO expansion, missile defence, and the proxy war since 2014.
politico.com/newsletters/na…
- This was the format for NATO expansion, missile defence, and the proxy war since 2014.
politico.com/newsletters/na…
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Peter Graae retweeted
Lies Do Not Win Wars
The Priceless Value of Archives!
September 14, 2022
The Priceless Value of Archives!
September 14, 2022
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Peter Graae retweeted
CIA Director Mike Pompeo instructed the agency to make plans to kidnap and murder Julian Assange after WikiLeaks published documents related to the CIA's “Year Zero Program” of massive, warrantless spying on American citizens and foreign politicians.
bit.ly/4a40XPG
bit.ly/4a40XPG
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Peter Graae retweeted
I am fundraising for my podcast series that aims to provide a platform for expert opinions on Russian foreign policy
Greater Eurasia Podcast - Prof. Glenn Diesen gofund.me/e01f39aa
Greater Eurasia Podcast - Prof. Glenn Diesen gofund.me/e01f39aa
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Peter Graae retweeted
ANALYSIS HOW WILL THE WAR END, MARCH 11 2024
Part 1/2
Pope Francis and many others want negotiations to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. But there will be no negotiations now. Both Russia and Ukraine want to improve their positions before negotiations. Russia to get more e and Ukraine to avoid too many concessions. But how will the war finally end?
I will paint with broad strokes a picture of a probable way to end the war. There will be no detailed discussions about offensives and other military matters. I said that there will be no negotiated peace for now, even though it would probably be the best alternative for Ukraine. The best alternative would of course have been a negotiated settlement during the spring of 2022, but that ship has already sailed.
What would an acceptable peace agreement be today. Russia would demand the same things as in 2022. That is a bilingual Ukraine with strong guarantees for the Russian population and the Russian Orthodox Church. A small Ukrainian military, eternal neutrality and close economic ties.
End to sanctions and a return of impounded Russian assets in the West. But the main difference would be that not only Crimea but also the entire Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts would be accepted as part of Russia.
Ukraine might accept a ceasefire and freezing of the frontlines, nothing else. They don't feel defeated and wouldn't consider giving Russia anything Russia hasn't taken by military force. But the Russian deal is probably the best thing Ukraine can hope to achieve. But that ship will also sail without Ukraine.
What has the future in store for the war? The war might be over in a couple of years or continue until 2030. It can also end in an resounding Russian victory or just a minor Russian victory. We now have four different scenarios.
Scenario 1. Depends on increased and continuous western support. With that Ukraine can avoid a collapse of the frontline, but Russia will continue to advance, taking a new medium sized city every 6 months.
Around 2030 everyone will be tired of the war and when Russia has taken remaining Zaporozhye and Donetsk oblasts plus Kharkov oblast, the war will fade away and become a frozen conflict.
Russia will gain about a quarter of Ukrainian population and territory. Ukraine will of course loose that, but keep its freedom of action. Both sides might loose up to a million men each.
The new 3/4 Ukraine will have around 20 million inhabitants and bleak economic prospects since the West probably will have tired of supporting Ukraine. The population will probably continue a sharp decline, due to economic hardship and migration. 8-10 million refugees in the West will stay there.
New conflicts with Russia might occur later, but with a Russian 10:1 advantage in population and 20:1 in economy Ukraine will be much easier to handle during a new round. And the West might have lost interest in Ukraine. This is the best scenario for Ukraine.
Scenario 2. It is based on moderate and declining western support for Ukraine. Initially things might be like in scenario 1 but the speed of the Russian advance will increase year by year. Around 2030 Ukraine realised its defeat when Russian troops had reached the entire east bank of the Dniepr and taken Odessa in the South.
Scenario 3. It is a very similar scenario 2 but with a much faster pace. The same result might be achieved for the Russians, but in two years instead of around five, six years.
Scenario 4 is also a short term scenario. Ukraine defend itself valiantly during 2024, but during 2025 they realise that western, and especially US, support will stop and that the war therefore is lost. Ukraine asks for negotiations.
In tweet 2/2 I'll describe the consequences of a more resounding Ukrainian defeat. On the map you see the present Line of Contact (LoC), Russian progress in scenario 1 (1) and in scenario 2/3 (2/3).
To be continued
Part 1/2
Pope Francis and many others want negotiations to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. But there will be no negotiations now. Both Russia and Ukraine want to improve their positions before negotiations. Russia to get more e and Ukraine to avoid too many concessions. But how will the war finally end?
I will paint with broad strokes a picture of a probable way to end the war. There will be no detailed discussions about offensives and other military matters. I said that there will be no negotiated peace for now, even though it would probably be the best alternative for Ukraine. The best alternative would of course have been a negotiated settlement during the spring of 2022, but that ship has already sailed.
What would an acceptable peace agreement be today. Russia would demand the same things as in 2022. That is a bilingual Ukraine with strong guarantees for the Russian population and the Russian Orthodox Church. A small Ukrainian military, eternal neutrality and close economic ties.
End to sanctions and a return of impounded Russian assets in the West. But the main difference would be that not only Crimea but also the entire Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts would be accepted as part of Russia.
Ukraine might accept a ceasefire and freezing of the frontlines, nothing else. They don't feel defeated and wouldn't consider giving Russia anything Russia hasn't taken by military force. But the Russian deal is probably the best thing Ukraine can hope to achieve. But that ship will also sail without Ukraine.
What has the future in store for the war? The war might be over in a couple of years or continue until 2030. It can also end in an resounding Russian victory or just a minor Russian victory. We now have four different scenarios.
Scenario 1. Depends on increased and continuous western support. With that Ukraine can avoid a collapse of the frontline, but Russia will continue to advance, taking a new medium sized city every 6 months.
Around 2030 everyone will be tired of the war and when Russia has taken remaining Zaporozhye and Donetsk oblasts plus Kharkov oblast, the war will fade away and become a frozen conflict.
Russia will gain about a quarter of Ukrainian population and territory. Ukraine will of course loose that, but keep its freedom of action. Both sides might loose up to a million men each.
The new 3/4 Ukraine will have around 20 million inhabitants and bleak economic prospects since the West probably will have tired of supporting Ukraine. The population will probably continue a sharp decline, due to economic hardship and migration. 8-10 million refugees in the West will stay there.
New conflicts with Russia might occur later, but with a Russian 10:1 advantage in population and 20:1 in economy Ukraine will be much easier to handle during a new round. And the West might have lost interest in Ukraine. This is the best scenario for Ukraine.
Scenario 2. It is based on moderate and declining western support for Ukraine. Initially things might be like in scenario 1 but the speed of the Russian advance will increase year by year. Around 2030 Ukraine realised its defeat when Russian troops had reached the entire east bank of the Dniepr and taken Odessa in the South.
Scenario 3. It is a very similar scenario 2 but with a much faster pace. The same result might be achieved for the Russians, but in two years instead of around five, six years.
Scenario 4 is also a short term scenario. Ukraine defend itself valiantly during 2024, but during 2025 they realise that western, and especially US, support will stop and that the war therefore is lost. Ukraine asks for negotiations.
In tweet 2/2 I'll describe the consequences of a more resounding Ukrainian defeat. On the map you see the present Line of Contact (LoC), Russian progress in scenario 1 (1) and in scenario 2/3 (2/3).
To be continued
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