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How did Trump win the popular vote? Here’s a dot map of the 2024 election by raw vote margin:
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I’m quite curious how Dems handle Lisa Murkowski. For some time now, the vast majority of Murkowski voters have been Dems. The deal was they’d either get her or a worse R, so they backed her. Do they still feel that way? Would they be willing to exert leverage on her?
Reminder: In 2028, Republicans will be defending Senate seats in FIVE states Dems flipped this year (Alaska, North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, and Kansas) ... plus neighboring Missouri ... plus Wisconsin and Florida
These incumbents won’t be happy to hear this news...
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35
1,160
61,814
Take Virginia in 06 for example, where Jim Webb upset George Allen by 0.4%. An impressive result at the time, but it actually understated what would come next - Obama's more cosmopolitan and metropolitan coalition (which was even stronger with Black voters) turned VA much bluer
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6
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18,066
Most have had Dems favored to flip Alaska Governor for some time now, thanks to a very favorable RCV top 4 split (one Dem vs three Rs who did not even want to coordinate ranking each other)
Turns out JKT didn't even need that. He likely would've won a 1v1 against any of them.
Turns out JKT didn't even need that. He likely would've won a 1v1 against any of them.
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436
23,810
like okay girl you had a ton of time to think about it
#TexasSenate
WSJ: President Trump privately regretted his endorsement of Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in the Republican primary.
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5,914
NYT has yet to update, but this is why you wait for mail in Maryland. Andy Harris led by 12 on election night; the first round of mail counting shrunk that down to 7 points, with more mail on the way
For those of you following Maryland results, you should note that as always, there’s lots and lots of mail to count, which will begin today. These will shift results left by ~5-7 points
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I wonder when we’ll get a Republican post-mortem. For example, they frivolously spent hundreds of millions pretending to contest safely Democratic states, like Texas, and barely invested in crucial swing states like South Carolina and Mississippi. This silliness cost them dearly
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6,621
126,938
I gotta update this one
Every state elects at least one state-level officer. Some only elect one (Governor), while others elect a wide variety from Attorney General to a seat on a Railroad Commission. Here’s a graphic showing the partisan control of these statewide offices. #ElectionTwitter
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8,039
there are a lot of things that have been mystifying about the tech right’s foray in politics, but the biggest one is their ridiculous arrogance regarding how politics works. their political instincts are often terrible!
This continues to be true, fwiw; nearly all the major leaders of tech continue to expect Trump has a good midterm.
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10,710
Astute observers will recall a time when Al Gross claimed he would win once all ballots were counted on election night, despite it being very clear that was not going to happen. Dan Sullivan taking a page from his old opponent’s book
Sen. Dan Sullivan's campaign says it's projecting him to win in Alaska once it goes ranked choice "despite a bloodbath for Republicans everywhere else"
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0
34
2,387
It’s been a very long time since DesJarlais’ scandals have been in the public eye (look them up if you don’t know!)
But undoubtedly some voters still remember, and they assuredly make up the margin of victory for this absolute stunner of an upset. The bill finally came due.
But undoubtedly some voters still remember, and they assuredly make up the margin of victory for this absolute stunner of an upset. The bill finally came due.
Looks like deeply scandal-plagued Scott DesJarlais underperformed once again this year. Seems like his district swung right (Trump won it 69-27 in 2016), but DesJarlais’ opponent got 33.3%, exceeding Obama’s 2012 vote share.
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24,488