Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has a conundrum, according to @yardeni. One solution? Raise rates today.
"Warsh faces three problems. He opposes forward guidance, yet his colleagues provide it. He wants to see what the market signals regarding the appropriate path for monetary policy, but their remarks muddy those signals. And he risks being boxed in by expectations that he cannot rebut without issuing guidance himself."
"Warsh faces three problems. He opposes forward guidance, yet his colleagues provide it. He wants to see what the market signals regarding the appropriate path for monetary policy, but their remarks muddy those signals. And he risks being boxed in by expectations that he cannot rebut without issuing guidance himself."
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"An October rate hike could help solve all three. By persuading a majority of the FOMC voters to raise the FFR despite the markets’ overwhelming expectation of a pause planted by other Fed officials’ commentary, Warsh could demonstrate that he is serious about abolishing forward guidance. As a result, investors would likely attribute less weight to individual officials’
comments, providing Warsh with a cleaner signal from the financial markets and reducing the risk of being boxed in by his colleagues."
comments, providing Warsh with a cleaner signal from the financial markets and reducing the risk of being boxed in by his colleagues."
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Julie Hyman retweeted
@edzitron has argued OpenAI and Anthropic shouldn’t be allowed to go public. This morning on The 8:30, we asked Ed, what’s the alternative?
He says, “Let them die.” You can find this clip and more of our conversation with Ed @YahooFinance.
He says, “Let them die.” You can find this clip and more of our conversation with Ed @YahooFinance.
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Elon Musk is "is the most powerful civilian, non-governmental actor in history" -- @gmukunda to my colleague @byjakeconley, who examines Musk's ballooning influence for @YahooFinance:
finance.yahoo.com/technology/art…
finance.yahoo.com/technology/art…
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Good point from Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha (emphasis mine):
Treasury yields rose in early Fall as oil moved up, reflecting the idea that Treasuries are a poor hedge against adverse supply shocks. That is true. But we are relearning that Treasuries are a good hedge for the risk of a deflationary AI bust.
Treasury yields rose in early Fall as oil moved up, reflecting the idea that Treasuries are a poor hedge against adverse supply shocks. That is true. But we are relearning that Treasuries are a good hedge for the risk of a deflationary AI bust.
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Tesla inspiring analyst poetic flights of fancy this morning from George Gianarikas of Canaccord Genuity, in a note entitled "The Berkshire Hathaway of Tomorrowland":
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Apropos of our conversations last week @dandefrancesco @GerberKawasaki
"Speculative data center debt is being repackaged and sold to pension and retirement funds, university endowments, and other institutional investors in a manner eerily reminiscent of the subprime bubble."
ourfinancialsecurity.org/resources/brac…
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Just listened to the Odd Lots with David Byrne, and his discussion with @tracyalloway & @TheStalwart about the value of cross-disciplinary study made me think of the Great Books program at St. John's College and how a very small part of me wanted to go there.
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L’Etat, c’est lui.
I don't know if you realize what just happened.
Elon Musk is completely bypassing the State.
For 100 years, we've been told the problem is capital. That it must be captured, taxed, redistributed. With an army of intermediaries standing between those who create wealth and the people: ministries, agencies, commissions, bureaucrats.
Musk is doing the opposite. He's taking his capital and giving it directly to the people. One SpaceX share to every kid in America. Not a handout. Not a subsidy. A piece of the machine that's taking humanity to Mars.
And he says it himself: this is the first of many.
Mises understood this back in 1944: the bureaucrat creates nothing. He administers what others created, following rules that have no connection to the value produced. The day value flows directly from the one who creates it to the one who receives it, the bureaucrat has no function left.
That's what's being born right now. A new liberal world order, where the very concept of the State will make less and less sense.
The world we're entering is a world of abundance. AI, robots, energy, space. And that abundance won't come through the State, for one simple reason: we have a century of proof that it doesn't work.
Redistribution was version 1.0. Direct distribution of capital is 2.0.
While France is still debating how to tax builders even more, America is handing stock to its kids.
Pick your side.
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Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel with a banger to start the week:
"That Hyperscalers are Price Insensitive debt issuers is fantasy similar to “It’s Different This Time Thinking” that caused investors to pile into prior booms." ...
"That Hyperscalers are Price Insensitive debt issuers is fantasy similar to “It’s Different This Time Thinking” that caused investors to pile into prior booms." ...
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That said, he sees the recent selling as a buying opportunity. That would change down the road if credit spreads widen more meaningfully or earnings revisions trends change.
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Watched You Can See Everything yesterday with some of my team.
Can confirm it is as bonkers and wonderful as the reviews say.
And that you should indeed go in without knowing anything.
Can confirm it is as bonkers and wonderful as the reviews say.
And that you should indeed go in without knowing anything.
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We found the dip-buyer, and he'll be on @YahooFinance with @byjakeconley & me tomorrow morning!
My thoughts on $CRWV
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JPMorgan EPS haven't missed estimates since Q2 2022. That's the first miss in 17 quarters. $JPM
finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/
finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/
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Wild stat shared by @michaelbatnick:
In mid-2018, the market cap of the top five stocks was equal to the market cap of the bottom 282 combined.
Today, the market cap of the top five stocks is equal to the market cap of the bottom 434.
In mid-2018, the market cap of the top five stocks was equal to the market cap of the bottom 282 combined.
Today, the market cap of the top five stocks is equal to the market cap of the bottom 434.
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I guess Sandisk & Vertiv need asterisks: they didn't go into the S&P until 2025 and 2026, respectively.
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