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My new book, The Socialist Temptation, is out today! Get your copy at Amazon or all fine booksellers.
amazon.com/Socialist-Temp…
amazon.com/Socialist-Temp…
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Oh, for pity's sake.
[NEWS] “Marnûkh is a character meant to challenge long-held perceptions of Orcs. He’s such a departure from past depictions that within the production, Marnûkh has picked up the catchy nickname, “the Orc with an arc.”
#TheRingsOfPower
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Iain Murray retweeted
Very punchy JP Morgan reaction to bank tax hike:
"...to single out this industry for additional taxes again, one of the UK's biggest generators of growth and jobs, lacks principle. It also overlooks that the banking industry operates in a highly competitive global marketplace.”
"...to single out this industry for additional taxes again, one of the UK's biggest generators of growth and jobs, lacks principle. It also overlooks that the banking industry operates in a highly competitive global marketplace.”
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Iain Murray retweeted
“The price system is collapsing around our ears!”
To be fair to people like Ed Miliband and his followers, he has never made much of a secret of his thinking. What else did people think he meant when he argued in Go Big that climate change demanded we abandon our 300-year-old economic model of growth?
This is precisely the danger Thatcher warned about when she argued that the climate agenda could become a pretext for smuggling in the anti-market ideas she had spent her political life fighting.
And to think the Conservative Party did half the work for Miliband and Labour! They spent nearly two decades redefining what progress meant and this is the end result.
To be fair to people like Ed Miliband and his followers, he has never made much of a secret of his thinking. What else did people think he meant when he argued in Go Big that climate change demanded we abandon our 300-year-old economic model of growth?
This is precisely the danger Thatcher warned about when she argued that the climate agenda could become a pretext for smuggling in the anti-market ideas she had spent her political life fighting.
And to think the Conservative Party did half the work for Miliband and Labour! They spent nearly two decades redefining what progress meant and this is the end result.
This is bonkers. The gas grid costs an amount to upkeep approximately proportional to the size of each person’s hookup, the most logical way to pay for which is through some sort of charge reflecting that.
The price system is collapsing around our ears!
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Iain Murray retweeted
This is eye-opening. Europe’s share of global tech R&D has collapsed from 23% in 2005 to just 8% today, while the US has climbed to 62% and China has risen from near zero to 15%. South Korea now outspends Germany, France, the UK, and Italy combined in tech R&D. Yep, you read that right.
result of policy choices that systematically favor control and redistribution over growth. Layered regulation, data rules, AI restrictions, labor rigidities, and precautionary frameworks, raises the cost and slows the pace of turning ideas into products, forcing companies to spend scarce resources on compliance rather than experimentation. High taxation and expansive redistributive systems extract capital that would otherwise fund private R&D and risk-taking, while shrinking the after-tax reward for building something new and scaling it. The broader left-leaning mindset that prioritizes equality of outcome over dynamism treats entrepreneurial success as something to be managed, taxed, or shared rather than unleashed and rewarded.
Places that protect the returns to innovation and keep barriers low continue to pull ahead, attracting talent and capital that Europe increasingly loses. Europe’s relative decline is the cumulative outcome of treating dynamism as a problem to be regulated rather than the engine of prosperity. Without a shift toward lighter rules, lower burdens on enterprise, and greater tolerance for unequal outcomes from unequal effort, the gap will keep widening, and Europe will become an open-air museum for wealthy Americans and Asians.
result of policy choices that systematically favor control and redistribution over growth. Layered regulation, data rules, AI restrictions, labor rigidities, and precautionary frameworks, raises the cost and slows the pace of turning ideas into products, forcing companies to spend scarce resources on compliance rather than experimentation. High taxation and expansive redistributive systems extract capital that would otherwise fund private R&D and risk-taking, while shrinking the after-tax reward for building something new and scaling it. The broader left-leaning mindset that prioritizes equality of outcome over dynamism treats entrepreneurial success as something to be managed, taxed, or shared rather than unleashed and rewarded.
Places that protect the returns to innovation and keep barriers low continue to pull ahead, attracting talent and capital that Europe increasingly loses. Europe’s relative decline is the cumulative outcome of treating dynamism as a problem to be regulated rather than the engine of prosperity. Without a shift toward lighter rules, lower burdens on enterprise, and greater tolerance for unequal outcomes from unequal effort, the gap will keep widening, and Europe will become an open-air museum for wealthy Americans and Asians.
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Iain Murray retweeted
There's a deep, underappreciated economic lesson in this op-ed: regulation should be targeted at risks, not an industry.
Nuclear plants and wind farms both generate electricity. Nobody sensible thinks they require identical safety rules.
Uber and taxis both get you home. Yet ratings, GPS tracking and automatic payments on rideshare addressed some of the problems taxi regulation was targeted at. They didnt need to be regulated in the same way.
Exactly equivalent logic applies to prediction markets and traditional gambling. A sportsbook or a casino takes the other side of your bet. A prediction exchange matches traders, clears contracts and charges fees for transacting. The financial plumbing, incentives and risks of the two activities are completely different.
If we are to have regulation it should be targeted at the specific risks and harms given the actual structure of the activity. Otherwise, you punish firms for developing products and incentive structures that solve the very problems that justified regulation in the traditional industry in the first place.
Incumbent sportsbooks and casinos naturally love to extol a “level playing field.” But that's not how a good economist should think about regulation.
Nuclear plants and wind farms both generate electricity. Nobody sensible thinks they require identical safety rules.
Uber and taxis both get you home. Yet ratings, GPS tracking and automatic payments on rideshare addressed some of the problems taxi regulation was targeted at. They didnt need to be regulated in the same way.
Exactly equivalent logic applies to prediction markets and traditional gambling. A sportsbook or a casino takes the other side of your bet. A prediction exchange matches traders, clears contracts and charges fees for transacting. The financial plumbing, incentives and risks of the two activities are completely different.
If we are to have regulation it should be targeted at the specific risks and harms given the actual structure of the activity. Otherwise, you punish firms for developing products and incentive structures that solve the very problems that justified regulation in the traditional industry in the first place.
Incumbent sportsbooks and casinos naturally love to extol a “level playing field.” But that's not how a good economist should think about regulation.
Yes, a bet and a trade often look similar.
But how they work is fundamentally different.
A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet. Prediction markets are markets, where buyers and sellers compete to discover and produce efficient prices and enable ts.
What the market is about can change, but the structure doesn't.
My op-ed on prediction markets and regulation:
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Iain Murray retweeted
Why is Martin Lewis being told things before the house of commons?
CONFIRMED. Gas Standing Charges to be scrapped. I've just come out of a meeting with the Chancellor. The gas standing charge will be scrapped in 2027 (my guess, either for 1 Oct price cap or the 1 Jan 28 price cap). Having campaigned against the moral hazard of standing charges for years, I'm pleased.
It's currently £108 a year. That cost will be shifted onto unit rates. We don't know how much yet, but I suspect just under 1p per kwH.
The Chancellor also said he will be talking to Ofgem about how they get rid of the charge on electricity as well, but that is 'trickier' apparently and will take longer.
This is primarily about the price cap standing charges. There will still be an open market, so other firms can offer other forms of prices with or without the standing charge. My suspicion is that once it goes on the price cap, it will tend to be reduced on other tariffs as well.
As for those on fixes: if you get a fix now, the rate of your fix is fixed, so this should not affect it. You will pay what you pay and if it has standing charges they will continue (some asking if they should delay fixing because of this, no if a fix is right for you and will save you money, don't let this change that - this is about the structure of bills, as opposed to the actual costs on bills).
About 60% of people will pay less due to this, 40% more. My guesstimate is the dividing line will be somewhere around 12,500 kilowatt hours of gas (can't know until there is actual pricing). According to a study by Nesta, this switch would leave the majority of people in all income groups under £100,000 better off.
Of course, when this does come in, if we're still in the nightmare that we are right now, there will need to be support put in for vulnerable higher users, who will have to pay more. Though hopefully by then the mid-east will have calmed and energy prices lower.
---------------
That's all long term. The biggest issue in energy right now is that we're expecting a 27% rise in the price cap in January. I asked the Chancellor whether he will be intervening on that. He told me I'd have to wait for the budget, but reading between the lines, yes, there will be an announcement today.
Whether it's an increase in the Warm Home Discount, or whether it's council tax banned, or whether it's done via a payout for people in say council tax bands A-D as a proxy for household income as Rishi Sunak did who knows.
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Iain Murray retweeted
Yes, a bet and a trade often look similar.
But how they work is fundamentally different.
A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet. Prediction markets are markets, where buyers and sellers compete to discover and produce efficient prices and enable ts.
What the market is about can change, but the structure doesn't.
My op-ed on prediction markets and regulation:
But how they work is fundamentally different.
A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet. Prediction markets are markets, where buyers and sellers compete to discover and produce efficient prices and enable ts.
What the market is about can change, but the structure doesn't.
My op-ed on prediction markets and regulation:
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Iain Murray retweeted
Well, now this is interesting.
Dan Ayoub has been named the new President of Wizards of the Coast.
Here’s something I absolutely love, he’s been playing D&D with the same group of friends since he was 10 years old.
Look, I’ve had my share of frustrations with WotC, and I know many of you have too. Those concerns don’t just magically disappear because there’s a new guy in charge.
But Dan is talking about putting fans first and respecting the artists and creators who brought these wonderful worlds to life. That’s exactly what I want to hear.
Of course, actions speak louder than words. But everyone deserves a fair chance.
So here’s to a new chapter for D&D, Dragonlance, and the people who make these worlds so special.
newsroom.hasbro.com/news-releases/…
Dan Ayoub has been named the new President of Wizards of the Coast.
Here’s something I absolutely love, he’s been playing D&D with the same group of friends since he was 10 years old.
Look, I’ve had my share of frustrations with WotC, and I know many of you have too. Those concerns don’t just magically disappear because there’s a new guy in charge.
But Dan is talking about putting fans first and respecting the artists and creators who brought these wonderful worlds to life. That’s exactly what I want to hear.
Of course, actions speak louder than words. But everyone deserves a fair chance.
So here’s to a new chapter for D&D, Dragonlance, and the people who make these worlds so special.
newsroom.hasbro.com/news-releases/…
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Iain Murray retweeted
What happened here:
- Mbappe made an offhanded comment that called Mao a dictator
- China is *intensely* nationalistic in a way most Westerners have no real experience with
- Chinese social media blows up every perceived insult to China into a discourse nuclear bomb.
- The CCP tacitly encourages this as they think it's politically useful
- 95% of the time, whichever Western brand did something to 'offend' the chinese - like quoting the Dalai Lama, acknowledging the existence of Taiwan, or criticizing the CCP - will do a humiliation ritual of prostrating themselves and apologizing for the grave offense, because $$$$$$
- Mbappe made an offhanded comment that called Mao a dictator
- China is *intensely* nationalistic in a way most Westerners have no real experience with
- Chinese social media blows up every perceived insult to China into a discourse nuclear bomb.
- The CCP tacitly encourages this as they think it's politically useful
- 95% of the time, whichever Western brand did something to 'offend' the chinese - like quoting the Dalai Lama, acknowledging the existence of Taiwan, or criticizing the CCP - will do a humiliation ritual of prostrating themselves and apologizing for the grave offense, because $$$$$$
LALIGA lamenta profundamente la ofensa que los recientes comentarios de Kylian Mbappé han causado entre los aficionados chinos. Estos comentarios fueron realizados a título personal y no representan a LALIGA. En la medida de nuestra responsabilidad institucional, pedimos LALIGA y de todos sus clubes.
El fútbol español defiende el respeto, la convivencia y la unión entre personas de todas las culturas. Trasladamos nuestro respeto a China, a sus instituciones y a su pueblo, y valoramos profundamente el apoyo de los millones de aficionados que nos siguen cada semana. Reafirmamos nuestro compromiso con una relación construida durante años.
Estamos trabajando con nuestros socios e interlocutores institucionales en China para abordar esta situación. Asimismo, pondremos en marcha, en colaboración con los clubes y los jugadores, un protocolo de sensibilización y comunicación que promueva el respeto a las distintas culturas y contribuya a prevenir situaciones similares.Community note
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Iain Murray retweeted
Mbappé called Mao a dictator and now he's been forced to apologise. What a world we live in.
Community noteMao Zedong is under any single social metric a dictator. Not a single popular election, single government party and lifetime leadership. Not even taking into account the millions of deaths under his reign.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mao_Zedong
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This is the value of prediction markets - consolidating dispersed knowledge.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi are joining forces to build the next generation of financial markets.
The Dow launched in 1896. The S&P 500 in 1957. The idea was simple: bring individual stocks together into a single benchmark, giving people a clearer view of the broader market.
ilt around those benchmarks transformed investing. Index funds, ETFs, futures, and options gave investors ways to gain diversified market exposure and hedge broad market swings.
These indices became foundations of global finance. More than $20 trillion is indexed or benchmarked to the S&P 500 alone.
Today, this structure extends beyond stocks to bonds, commodities, currencies, and more.
The next step is to bring that structure to the events that shape everyone’s lives.
Through this partnership, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi will work together to create indices composed of Kalshi event contracts.
Think about what that opens up.
An index of political power. An index of supply chain risk. An index tracking AI’s impact on employment. An index of sports outcomes that affect broadcasters, advertisers, cities, and small businesses. An index of weather risks that shape harvests, energy demand, and business revenues.
Each would bundle event contracts into a single indicator, helping people understand how related risks are evolving.
Over time, products built around these indices could offer diversified exposure to those events and new ways to hedge their impact.
The events that shape our lives could become as easy to track and gain exposure to as the S&P 500.
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This post is a bit of a comedy of errors.
Is "Who's on First?" funny? marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
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Iain Murray retweeted
This stuff's just incredible. Our politics is nowhere near grasping how big the changes are that are already underway. We are no longer at the "AI is going to change everything" stage. We're now in the midst of "AI has already changed everything."
Announcing three major scientific discoveries, one each in mathematics (harmonic analysis), computer science (complexity theory), and physics (quantum field theory).
AI starting to help us improve our understanding of the universe! openai.com/index/building…
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Iain Murray retweeted
This says it all. Parliament has cancelled the debate planned for this evening on AI - because the debate beforehand on the Post Office is (like the post itself) taking too long. On the day Anthropic files for its IPO Britain is debating Victorian communications infrastructure
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Interestingly, freedom comes top when asked about shared values. There's life in the old dog yet.
news.gallup.com/poll/716093/th…
news.gallup.com/poll/716093/th…
It is depressing that freedom, traditionally this nation's most important value, does not rank in the top three for any group.
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Iain Murray retweeted
I don't understand why more people haven't watched The Ascent of Man. Civilisation and The World at War are rightly celebrated as masterpieces of British television, but Jacob Bronowski's superb account of human progress through scientific discovery is every bit as good!
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He was brilliant as Bester in Babylon Five. RIP.
Walter Koenig, who played Chekov in the original “Star Trek” series and seven “Star Trek” feature films, has died at 90.
variety.com/2026/film/news…
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