Pinned Tweet
If Market beta is live.
Trade the impact of events on asset prices. Not just "will it happen", but what it does to the market when it does.
Invite codes are in your DMs. No code? Reply or DM us and we'll send one.
Have a look around, try the flow, and be blunt. Feedback is the contest + prizes coming soon.
beta.if.market
Trade the impact of events on asset prices. Not just "will it happen", but what it does to the market when it does.
Invite codes are in your DMs. No code? Reply or DM us and we'll send one.
Have a look around, try the flow, and be blunt. Feedback is the contest + prizes coming soon.
beta.if.market
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Every trade has two parts:
1. Will it happen?
2. What’s it worth if it does?
Being right about the event is only half the trade.
You called the Fed hike. Did you call what bitcoin:native did next?
You called the launch. Did you call $TSLA?
If Market is built for the second question.
1. Will it happen?
2. What’s it worth if it does?
Being right about the event is only half the trade.
You called the Fed hike. Did you call what bitcoin:native did next?
You called the launch. Did you call $TSLA?
If Market is built for the second question.
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If Market retweeted
early crypto projects = probably next alphas
• @silhouette_ex - Universal block trading layer on Hyperliquid.
• @ifmarkets - The exchange for trading what events do to prices. Prediction markets price the odds. If Market prices the impact.
• @fystack - Automate your ts, payments and payouts, on one open platform.
• @justify_first - Justify is a social prediction platform where opinions become markets.
• @zealwallet - Cut the Middlemen, Keep the Yield. Earn 6% APY on your cash and spend freely with a Gnosis Pay self‐custodial Visa.
bookmark if this is useful & u may add it on ur watchlist also follow for more alphas
• @silhouette_ex - Universal block trading layer on Hyperliquid.
• @ifmarkets - The exchange for trading what events do to prices. Prediction markets price the odds. If Market prices the impact.
• @fystack - Automate your ts, payments and payouts, on one open platform.
• @justify_first - Justify is a social prediction platform where opinions become markets.
• @zealwallet - Cut the Middlemen, Keep the Yield. Earn 6% APY on your cash and spend freely with a Gnosis Pay self‐custodial Visa.
bookmark if this is useful & u may add it on ur watchlist also follow for more alphas
early crypto projects = probably next alphas
• @xeinternet - The Agent Native Network. Every other network was built for people.
XE is the world’s first network built for machines and agents.
• @kastro_xyz - The money app for everyday users.
• @suno_finance - Earn onchain energy.
• @subfrostp2p - Bringing native, final-state DeFi to Bitcoin.
• @alloco_fi - Tokenized products shaped by global hedge fund portfolios, public-figure market signals, and systematic strategies.
bookmark if this is useful & u may add it on ur watchlist also follow for more alphas
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Brent climbed all day as strike headlines hit.
On if.market:
• Brent if the US ends its Iranian blockade: $110.87
• Brent if it doesn’t: $112.56
• Spot: $111.97
Spot sits $1.10 above the yes world and $0.59 below the no world.
Spot is a blend of the two likely each one is. Right now it leans toward no deal by Dec 31.
On if.market:
• Brent if the US ends its Iranian blockade: $110.87
• Brent if it doesn’t: $112.56
• Spot: $111.97
Spot sits $1.10 above the yes world and $0.59 below the no world.
Spot is a blend of the two likely each one is. Right now it leans toward no deal by Dec 31.
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If Market retweeted
daily early projects
@instinct_xyz – agentic trading harness for individual traders (Y Combinator)
@TransmuterTMI – value recovery infrastructure for cryptocurrencies (Superteam Balkan)
@silhouette_ex – universal block trading layer on Hyperliquid
@ifmarkets – exchange for to prices
@vauban_tech – post-quantum proofs for payments and agents on Starknet
@fystack – open platform for stablecoin wallets and payouts
@opendex_ws – backend for branded trading apps
@justify_first – social prediction platform where opinions become markets
shoutout to @frontrunvc for helping find these early
bookmark if useful
follow or miss tomorrow's alpha
@instinct_xyz – agentic trading harness for individual traders (Y Combinator)
@TransmuterTMI – value recovery infrastructure for cryptocurrencies (Superteam Balkan)
@silhouette_ex – universal block trading layer on Hyperliquid
@ifmarkets – exchange for to prices
@vauban_tech – post-quantum proofs for payments and agents on Starknet
@fystack – open platform for stablecoin wallets and payouts
@opendex_ws – backend for branded trading apps
@justify_first – social prediction platform where opinions become markets
shoutout to @frontrunvc for helping find these early
bookmark if useful
follow or miss tomorrow's alpha
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Trade oil the way you think.
Not: “oil goes up.”
But: “if the US ends the Iranian blockade by Dec 31, oil goes down.”
That’s a real trade on If Market. Pick the event, pick your direction, place it.
Trade the if.
Not: “oil goes up.”
But: “if the US ends the Iranian blockade by Dec 31, oil goes down.”
That’s a real trade on If Market. Pick the event, pick your direction, place it.
Trade the if.
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Goldman says $90 Brent by December.
It’s a good forecast, but it costs nothing to be wrong. No position, no margin.
The If Market blockade book is a different kind of forecast:
• Brent if the blockade end is announced: $104.90
• Brent if it isn’t: $106.61
Every number on it r side, and prices move all day because people are paying to be right.
When a research note and a live market disagree by $15, both are worth watching.
It’s a good forecast, but it costs nothing to be wrong. No position, no margin.
The If Market blockade book is a different kind of forecast:
• Brent if the blockade end is announced: $104.90
• Brent if it isn’t: $106.61
Every number on it r side, and prices move all day because people are paying to be right.
When a research note and a live market disagree by $15, both are worth watching.
A barrel of Brent crude oil is expected to trade at $90 in December 2026 and fall to $80 on average in 2027 as supply from the Middle East gradually increases—according to Daan Struyven, co-head of Global Commodities Research and Head of Oil Research. Read more: click.gs.com/tnnq
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If Market retweeted
from reading signs and anticipating what lies ahead to finding ways to position ourselves for what might follow, humans have always tried to make sense of uncertainty.
this thread traces that instinct through the evolution of prediction markets and examines how @ifmarkets takes h impact markets.
🧵
this thread traces that instinct through the evolution of prediction markets and examines how @ifmarkets takes h impact markets.
🧵
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If Market retweeted
The event itself isnt always where the mispricing is
The market might price the probability correctly but still get the asset's reaction wrong
Thats the opportunity conditional markets can unlock
The market might price the probability correctly but still get the asset's reaction wrong
Thats the opportunity conditional markets can unlock
One price in. Every future out.
Spot blends every possible outcome into a single number.
If Market splits it back out: the asset’s price in the world where the event happens, and in the world where it doesn’t.
Trade the future you believe in.
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One price in. Every future out.
Spot blends every possible outcome into a single number.
If Market splits it back out: the asset’s price in the world where the event happens, and in the world where it doesn’t.
Trade the future you believe in.
Spot blends every possible outcome into a single number.
If Market splits it back out: the asset’s price in the world where the event happens, and in the world where it doesn’t.
Trade the future you believe in.
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Thanks @glxyresearch and @ZackPokorny_ for including If Market in this.
Conditional markets are early, but the idea is simple: Don’t just price whether something happens, price what it’s worth if it does.
Full Report 👇
Conditional markets are early, but the idea is simple: Don’t just price whether something happens, price what it’s worth if it does.
Full Report 👇
Conditional Markets Are Beginning to Blossom
Decision markets are scaling, impact markets are heading to mainnet, and new infra is pushing event-driven finance beyond prediction markets.
My newest report continues @glxyresearch coverage of the event-driven market space 👇
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A question we wanted to test: can one AI benchmark tell you something about the job market?
New listing: AI’s Impact on Jobs & the Labor Market
Event: Does an AI agent reach a $10K autonomous research horizon on METR’s NanoGPT
Asset: US unemployment rate
Nobody knows how AI capaosses. This market is a test of whether traders can put a number on it.
New listing: AI’s Impact on Jobs & the Labor Market
Event: Does an AI agent reach a $10K autonomous research horizon on METR’s NanoGPT
Asset: US unemployment rate
Nobody knows how AI capaosses. This market is a test of whether traders can put a number on it.
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If Market retweeted
→ @ifmarkets reached out to me like a week ago,
Their product is on beta and they are building a conditional market that price consequences of an even and not just the probability
For instance the market “Will US strike Iran”
consequences will be “where does Oil price go if this happens”
This is a nice approach, but the product still needs to be tested; features, how orders get filled, how fast the execution is and many more other things..
And I think platform like @testdriveso is the best place for that: so other people can test and give them feedback on how and where to improve.
Their product is on beta and they are building a conditional market that price consequences of an even and not just the probability
For instance the market “Will US strike Iran”
consequences will be “where does Oil price go if this happens”
This is a nice approach, but the product still needs to be tested; features, how orders get filled, how fast the execution is and many more other things..
And I think platform like @testdriveso is the best place for that: so other people can test and give them feedback on how and where to improve.
TestDrive Tool Scouting 🔎
Found a tool or a creator more builders should know about?
Send them our way. If you find a tool or creator worth a test drive, we reward you for it.
Quote-post this with your find 👇
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every AI headline right now is a prediction market question.
will it hack something? will it take jobs? will the launch ship on time?
odds are only half the trade. If Market prices the consequence.
we already ran $GOOGL against the Astra launch.
live now: impact of AI on the with a headline? there’s a book for that.
will it hack something? will it take jobs? will the launch ship on time?
odds are only half the trade. If Market prices the consequence.
we already ran $GOOGL against the Astra launch.
live now: impact of AI on the with a headline? there’s a book for that.
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The blockade, priced two ways:
Prediction: 51% it ends by Dec 31
Impact: $2.86 between the two Brents
Trade both halves on if.market
Prediction: 51% it ends by Dec 31
Impact: $2.86 between the two Brents
Trade both halves on if.market
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Dove: “productive discussions,” “record barrels”
Hawk: “full force and effect,” “not one barrel from Iran”
One post, pulling in both directions.
Pundits will spend the week deciding what this means. Traders repriced both worlds in minutes and moved on.
Opinions are free. s://t.co/gNWikR17ks
Hawk: “full force and effect,” “not one barrel from Iran”
One post, pulling in both directions.
Pundits will spend the week deciding what this means. Traders repriced both worlds in minutes and moved on.
Opinions are free. s://t.co/gNWikR17ks
BREAKING: President Donald Trump said Thursday that the United States will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, announcing in a Truth Social post that discussions with Tehran are productive and the U.S. blockade will remain in place.
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If Market retweeted
Strapping in as day one user. 🚀
One headline. Two questions.
Most markets only let you trade the first.
If Market lets you trade both.
Will the US announce the end of the Iranian blockade by December 31?
→ 52%. that's the prediction market.
What is Brent worth if it does, and if it doesn't?
→ $100.14 vs 9 spot. that's the impact market.
Those numbers give you separate views to express:
• think a deal is more likely than 52%? that's an odds position
• think a $2.87 spread underprices what reopening Hormuz does to crude? that's an impact position
• hold both views? trade both books
Being right about the event is not the same as being right about its price. different books, different P&L, same event.
Beta is live. Join the waitlist at if.market and we'll send codes as spots open.
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One headline. Two questions.
Most markets only let you trade the first.
If Market lets you trade both.
Will the US announce the end of the Iranian blockade by December 31?
→ 52%. that's the prediction market.
What is Brent worth if it does, and if it doesn't?
→ $100.14 vs 9 spot. that's the impact market.
Those numbers give you separate views to express:
• think a deal is more likely than 52%? that's an odds position
• think a $2.87 spread underprices what reopening Hormuz does to crude? that's an impact position
• hold both views? trade both books
Being right about the event is not the same as being right about its price. different books, different P&L, same event.
Beta is live. Join the waitlist at if.market and we'll send codes as spots open.
Most markets only let you trade the first.
If Market lets you trade both.
Will the US announce the end of the Iranian blockade by December 31?
→ 52%. that's the prediction market.
What is Brent worth if it does, and if it doesn't?
→ $100.14 vs 9 spot. that's the impact market.
Those numbers give you separate views to express:
• think a deal is more likely than 52%? that's an odds position
• think a $2.87 spread underprices what reopening Hormuz does to crude? that's an impact position
• hold both views? trade both books
Being right about the event is not the same as being right about its price. different books, different P&L, same event.
Beta is live. Join the waitlist at if.market and we'll send codes as spots open.
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If Market retweeted
Lean in heavily on conditionals, I honestly think that's your edge.
Markets were built to react.
News breaks, then the repricing. Earnings land, then the gap. The event happens, then the market tells you what it meant.
Yet every move that defined a generation existed first as a question. What if money moves by email? What if your friend list graphics cards are the new oil?
The people who saw those worlds early had nowhere to trade them, only the aftermath.
If Market prices the worlds themselves:
Oil if the blockade ends. $NVDA if chip exports reopen. $TSLA if Robotaxi scales. Belief, with an order book.
Beta is already live and trading.
Join the waitlist at if.market and we'll send beta codes as spots open, with full access at launch.
This is your market.
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Markets were built to react.
News breaks, then the repricing. Earnings land, then the gap. The event happens, then the market tells you what it meant.
Yet every move that defined a generation existed first as a question. What if money moves by email? What if your friend list graphics cards are the new oil?
The people who saw those worlds early had nowhere to trade them, only the aftermath.
If Market prices the worlds themselves:
Oil if the blockade ends. $NVDA if chip exports reopen. $TSLA if Robotaxi scales. Belief, with an order book.
Beta is already live and trading.
Join the waitlist at if.market and we'll send beta codes as spots open, with full access at launch.
This is your market.
News breaks, then the repricing. Earnings land, then the gap. The event happens, then the market tells you what it meant.
Yet every move that defined a generation existed first as a question. What if money moves by email? What if your friend list graphics cards are the new oil?
The people who saw those worlds early had nowhere to trade them, only the aftermath.
If Market prices the worlds themselves:
Oil if the blockade ends. $NVDA if chip exports reopen. $TSLA if Robotaxi scales. Belief, with an order book.
Beta is already live and trading.
Join the waitlist at if.market and we'll send beta codes as spots open, with full access at launch.
This is your market.
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