Free retweeted
Extremely excited to announce that the @Shillz_Official beta is officially live.
shillz.app
I've worked on this platform day and night for over 2 months. Now it's time to start testing with real shillz and actual users. The first two projects featured are Y2K_DOTCOM
Here are five invite codes. DM me and I'll get you access if these get used.
ZDTRNU
4MDG36
5TD486
ZVDA6X
F55E83
Time to revive meme culture.
shillz.app
I've worked on this platform day and night for over 2 months. Now it's time to start testing with real shillz and actual users. The first two projects featured are Y2K_DOTCOM
Here are five invite codes. DM me and I'll get you access if these get used.
ZDTRNU
4MDG36
5TD486
ZVDA6X
F55E83
Time to revive meme culture.
43
25
99
11,776
Free retweeted
The Return of Gusto
"Attention" as Currency Topped, the Death of Literalism, & the Transcendental Buffoon
The Heart & Commitment of the Transcendental Buffoon
Some snippets and link to the full piece below
Substack:
open.substack.com/pub/apewoodx/p…
"Attention" as Currency Topped, the Death of Literalism, & the Transcendental Buffoon
The Heart & Commitment of the Transcendental Buffoon
Some snippets and link to the full piece below
Substack:
open.substack.com/pub/apewoodx/p…
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Looking into the new year, my central case is that we see a normalization back to more favorable conditions after a choppy few months.
Liquidity has been tight, meaning that repo plumbing was showing signs of stress, due to a shortage of bank reserves as the Fed's balance sheet the amount of overall leverage in the economy. This was evidenced in broader price action, including very choppy and rotational dynamics in equities, and a quite adverse environment for crypto.
However, going into the new year, we are going to see a number of positive factors:
1. Continued RMP flows with a reversal of year end effects.
Since the Dec FOMC where they announced $40bn/mo in RMPs for 3 months (and an undefined lower amount thereafter), this liquidity has been flowing in. The Fed has already purchased $38bn of the first month's allocation. So far we haven't seen a huge impact as this was being offset by year end liquidity factors as broker dealers close their books and reduce risk for the year end, but this should change (see the first chart, SOFR-IORB spread).
Gauging the deficit is more of an art than science, but gut feeling it is probably around $100-200bn (dovetails with the announced RMP size), so 1 month of RMPs is not going to plug the whole thing, but it should have a meaningful impact.
I'll add in the disclaimer that this is not QE, this is a targeted tool to unblock a clogged pipe in the financial plumbing matrix, so don't get too carried away by the impact this can have. It can help shift a tight environment back to normal, but it will not shift a normal environment to loose.
2. Re-expansion of fiscal deficit.
My work suggests an expansion of $12-15bn/mo starting on Jan 1 from the OBBBA impacts. We are in a fiscal dominance regime, I believe that a meaningful part of the reason the markets have been squishy the past 3-4 months is because of the deficit contraction driven by the tariffs. $12-15bn/mo is not enough to overcome the tariff impacts, but it is incremental vs. Nov/Dec, and I believe incrementality is what matters.
More of a minor point, but the eSLR de-regulation will also hit on Jan 1 for early adopters. The impact of this is not huge but larger moves towards banking de-regulation are on deck for the 2026.
3. Favorable shifts in inflation.
Market-based expectations of inflation have been getting crushed lower, evidenced by the 1y inflation swap chart below (USSWIT1). While there were issues with the November report, seeing good convergence around market-based indicators, Powell's comments on Dec FOMC around tariff impacts poised to fade out, and the Anna Wong quant analysis. The disinflationary environment creates a goldilocks setup. The economy is weak but not too weak, and softer inflation gives the Fed air cover to keep cutting. Cut expectations are modest here, with a Jan cut at only 13% (see the third chart) and a total of 2 cuts priced into the curve for the whole year. I'd expect something closer to 4 cuts assuming orthodox policy, and more than that with a Trump takeover.
4. Appointment of Hassett.
While this calculus deserves its own post, my simple view is that Trump will ultimately value loyalty over all. This is because he perceives himself as having been betrayed by Powell, who he chose on the advice of Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Wall St figures. Trump also put a lot of value in how Powell looked, saying that he "was out of central casting".
Given this history, it is rational for Trump to emphasize loyalty in his choice. His emphasis on loyalty across his cabinet and other personnel picks has been evident through his 2nd term. The Fed Chair is especially important on this dimension, since Trump lacks the authority to fire them, unlike other positions. Trump has a strong relationship with Hassett, who stayed close even during the out years when Trump was in the hinterlands. It's very likely to be Hassett.
Gold in particular will benefit from a Hassett nomination. Equities might have some heartburn initially but also think they will ultimately go up.
As you all know by now, I really like gold, and see it as a low mental burden asset that is poised to keep grinding higher. It has multiple ways to win and fewer ways it can lose. It's a trade where you can put on size and sleep at night. If you are going to buy it, I would suggest you do it soon, before it runs away.
At the same time, the equity market has been worried by signs of froth and unsustainability in the AI complex. Some of these were unforced communication errors by key actors, and some were reasonable signals (like the expanding use of debt to fund data center buildouts).
It is highly unlikely that the AI trade has topped, but it is possible it will take a breather for a while. The way the key names trade early in the year as funds are re-risking will be a good litmus test. I'd assign 60% odds on the trade needing a decent break, and potentially a catalyst in terms of a new breakthrough, before taking its next leg. At a high level, my mental model for the AI trade is the SaaS/cloud paradigm which played out in rolling waves over a decade, versus Dotcom which was a continual run culminating in a giga blow-off.
I'm more interested in other sectors of the market here, and have been spending a lot of time getting up to speed on areas of interest. Financials look well positioned into the new year. The space sector also has an interesting narrative, and has shown the strongest PA out of all retail momentum sectors, I like it as a speculative memetic bet.
In terms of crypto, in theory all of this should benefit it. I probably won't play it, as I favor gold here, and crypto is increasingly a tough bet when you factor in the drains on mental capital. However, there is a case to be made that if you were going to be bullish, somewhere around here is the time. Don't be a hero, look for shifts in character and a positive response as liquidity conditions improve.
This is likely my last post of the year, as I will be looking to unplug from here, and spend more time in deep thinking mode and preparing for the new year. Thank you everyone for reading and engaging throughout 2025.
Liquidity has been tight, meaning that repo plumbing was showing signs of stress, due to a shortage of bank reserves as the Fed's balance sheet the amount of overall leverage in the economy. This was evidenced in broader price action, including very choppy and rotational dynamics in equities, and a quite adverse environment for crypto.
However, going into the new year, we are going to see a number of positive factors:
1. Continued RMP flows with a reversal of year end effects.
Since the Dec FOMC where they announced $40bn/mo in RMPs for 3 months (and an undefined lower amount thereafter), this liquidity has been flowing in. The Fed has already purchased $38bn of the first month's allocation. So far we haven't seen a huge impact as this was being offset by year end liquidity factors as broker dealers close their books and reduce risk for the year end, but this should change (see the first chart, SOFR-IORB spread).
Gauging the deficit is more of an art than science, but gut feeling it is probably around $100-200bn (dovetails with the announced RMP size), so 1 month of RMPs is not going to plug the whole thing, but it should have a meaningful impact.
I'll add in the disclaimer that this is not QE, this is a targeted tool to unblock a clogged pipe in the financial plumbing matrix, so don't get too carried away by the impact this can have. It can help shift a tight environment back to normal, but it will not shift a normal environment to loose.
2. Re-expansion of fiscal deficit.
My work suggests an expansion of $12-15bn/mo starting on Jan 1 from the OBBBA impacts. We are in a fiscal dominance regime, I believe that a meaningful part of the reason the markets have been squishy the past 3-4 months is because of the deficit contraction driven by the tariffs. $12-15bn/mo is not enough to overcome the tariff impacts, but it is incremental vs. Nov/Dec, and I believe incrementality is what matters.
More of a minor point, but the eSLR de-regulation will also hit on Jan 1 for early adopters. The impact of this is not huge but larger moves towards banking de-regulation are on deck for the 2026.
3. Favorable shifts in inflation.
Market-based expectations of inflation have been getting crushed lower, evidenced by the 1y inflation swap chart below (USSWIT1). While there were issues with the November report, seeing good convergence around market-based indicators, Powell's comments on Dec FOMC around tariff impacts poised to fade out, and the Anna Wong quant analysis. The disinflationary environment creates a goldilocks setup. The economy is weak but not too weak, and softer inflation gives the Fed air cover to keep cutting. Cut expectations are modest here, with a Jan cut at only 13% (see the third chart) and a total of 2 cuts priced into the curve for the whole year. I'd expect something closer to 4 cuts assuming orthodox policy, and more than that with a Trump takeover.
4. Appointment of Hassett.
While this calculus deserves its own post, my simple view is that Trump will ultimately value loyalty over all. This is because he perceives himself as having been betrayed by Powell, who he chose on the advice of Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Wall St figures. Trump also put a lot of value in how Powell looked, saying that he "was out of central casting".
Given this history, it is rational for Trump to emphasize loyalty in his choice. His emphasis on loyalty across his cabinet and other personnel picks has been evident through his 2nd term. The Fed Chair is especially important on this dimension, since Trump lacks the authority to fire them, unlike other positions. Trump has a strong relationship with Hassett, who stayed close even during the out years when Trump was in the hinterlands. It's very likely to be Hassett.
Gold in particular will benefit from a Hassett nomination. Equities might have some heartburn initially but also think they will ultimately go up.
As you all know by now, I really like gold, and see it as a low mental burden asset that is poised to keep grinding higher. It has multiple ways to win and fewer ways it can lose. It's a trade where you can put on size and sleep at night. If you are going to buy it, I would suggest you do it soon, before it runs away.
At the same time, the equity market has been worried by signs of froth and unsustainability in the AI complex. Some of these were unforced communication errors by key actors, and some were reasonable signals (like the expanding use of debt to fund data center buildouts).
It is highly unlikely that the AI trade has topped, but it is possible it will take a breather for a while. The way the key names trade early in the year as funds are re-risking will be a good litmus test. I'd assign 60% odds on the trade needing a decent break, and potentially a catalyst in terms of a new breakthrough, before taking its next leg. At a high level, my mental model for the AI trade is the SaaS/cloud paradigm which played out in rolling waves over a decade, versus Dotcom which was a continual run culminating in a giga blow-off.
I'm more interested in other sectors of the market here, and have been spending a lot of time getting up to speed on areas of interest. Financials look well positioned into the new year. The space sector also has an interesting narrative, and has shown the strongest PA out of all retail momentum sectors, I like it as a speculative memetic bet.
In terms of crypto, in theory all of this should benefit it. I probably won't play it, as I favor gold here, and crypto is increasingly a tough bet when you factor in the drains on mental capital. However, there is a case to be made that if you were going to be bullish, somewhere around here is the time. Don't be a hero, look for shifts in character and a positive response as liquidity conditions improve.
This is likely my last post of the year, as I will be looking to unplug from here, and spend more time in deep thinking mode and preparing for the new year. Thank you everyone for reading and engaging throughout 2025.
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I get the haters dunking on btc's slide (enjoy, this is your time) but what I don't get is the obituaries being written. This asset has survived like half a dozen drawdowns worse than this only to hit ATHs every time. The only other things w that Rocky-esque record are stud stocks like Apple, Amazon and Florida real estate. Hard not to give that track record at least some respect. Am I wrong?
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Disaster
the dramatic drawdown, the painful reversal of fortune, the failed strategies and idea, is not the exception. it is the natural, inevitable friction of any high-stakes venture.
Every one of us will face moments when the fundamentals we trust are questioned, and the .
The vast majority of the world operates under the delusion that absolute, seamless success is the expected norm.
They are unprepared for the depth of the valley, only perceived by those who try something worthwhile.
Our true value, our competitive advantage, is not established during the bull run. It is revealed entirely by how we act in those dire moments.
It is the disciplined response to a crisis, not the reaction to a windfall, that defines us as leaders and shapes our enterprise.
Long-term, compounding success is never a stroke of luck. It is forged in Perseverance. It is built on the strength of our Adaptation and our Action through the most grueling part of the journey: the daily, painful requirement of showing up without capitulating.
In the dark of the market correction, in the despair of the valley of failure, when the environment is hostile and the data is grim, we execute. We maintain the systems, we trust the process, and we refuse to let go.
This resolute execution, year after year, in the face of inevitable challenge, is the only true path to enduring wealth and legacy.
Understand the path will take everything and march on. I will walk the path with you, until we dine in heaven once more.
the dramatic drawdown, the painful reversal of fortune, the failed strategies and idea, is not the exception. it is the natural, inevitable friction of any high-stakes venture.
Every one of us will face moments when the fundamentals we trust are questioned, and the .
The vast majority of the world operates under the delusion that absolute, seamless success is the expected norm.
They are unprepared for the depth of the valley, only perceived by those who try something worthwhile.
Our true value, our competitive advantage, is not established during the bull run. It is revealed entirely by how we act in those dire moments.
It is the disciplined response to a crisis, not the reaction to a windfall, that defines us as leaders and shapes our enterprise.
Long-term, compounding success is never a stroke of luck. It is forged in Perseverance. It is built on the strength of our Adaptation and our Action through the most grueling part of the journey: the daily, painful requirement of showing up without capitulating.
In the dark of the market correction, in the despair of the valley of failure, when the environment is hostile and the data is grim, we execute. We maintain the systems, we trust the process, and we refuse to let go.
This resolute execution, year after year, in the face of inevitable challenge, is the only true path to enduring wealth and legacy.
Understand the path will take everything and march on. I will walk the path with you, until we dine in heaven once more.
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This market is already on hard mode; the worst thing you can do is switch your brain off and start revenge-trading.
One clean loss is fine, one emotional spiral can be fatal.
One clean loss is fine, one emotional spiral can be fatal.
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onboarding just got easier.
transact with Apple Pay.
no excuse to be sidelined.
transact with Apple Pay.
no excuse to be sidelined.
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A far as I can see $BTC has never been this far outside the weekly bollinger bands before. Probably getting close to a snap back soon it rarely stays outside the bands for long
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$BTC
This is what forced selling looks like
- poor execution & in a hurry
Either drawdown position or basically a margin call
This is what forced selling looks like
- poor execution & in a hurry
Either drawdown position or basically a margin call
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The $85K to $81K move was the acceleration. Someone got forced out or carried out.
The immediate bounce is then: $81-83K.
The short-term bounce would probably be $83-88K, with the assumption that today’s low holds.
If it doesn’t, we’ve disgraced our entire lineage. If it does hold, congrats you made magic internet money by pressing buttons.
ELI5: Enter $82-83K; look for $87-88K and close if today’s low doesn’t hold.
The immediate bounce is then: $81-83K.
The short-term bounce would probably be $83-88K, with the assumption that today’s low holds.
If it doesn’t, we’ve disgraced our entire lineage. If it does hold, congrats you made magic internet money by pressing buttons.
ELI5: Enter $82-83K; look for $87-88K and close if today’s low doesn’t hold.
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