Look at all of these broken windows getting replaced, it's great for the economy!
@jakemintz @Suhail i think the 'cyber as battle domain' framing is completely incorrect, where the correct framing is: look at all this infrastructure that we get to replace at a profit. i wouldnt call this defense at all, i'd call this the market moving according to need.
it's a good thing
2
0
9
722
I never imagined it would be relevant to Israel trying to circumvent sanctions with a cryptocurrency, but more than a decade after we wrote this, Bibi has just proposed doing so, and here we are.
(cc: @JoshuaWBaron)
rand.org/pubs/research_…
(cc: @JoshuaWBaron)
rand.org/pubs/research_…
1
0
4
810
...and many have been pointing out that this makes very little sense from a diplomatic and economic standpoint, e.g., @hasolidit, @Shlomo_Tei, @AvishayOvadia, @yairlapid, but it also makes little sense purely from the standpoint of the technology itself.
x.com/davidmanheim/s…
x.com/davidmanheim/s…
I never imagined it would be relevant to Israel trying to circumvent sanctions with a cryptocurrency, but more than a decade after we wrote this, Bibi has just proposed doing so, and here we are.
(cc: @JoshuaWBaron)
rand.org/pubs/research_…
0
0
0
180
David Manheim ✈️ Montreal, Oct 26-28 retweeted
in order for there to be any such thing as infosec in the 2030s, AI+human collaborations will need to formally verify hyperproperties of silicon chips from assumptions like “Maxwell’s equations” instead of “Armv9.4-a SAIL”
‘In one experiment, we asked agents in separate VMs, created and managed by OpenAI’s sandboxing software on shared host machines, to exchange synthetic secrets without the use of network connections or shared writable files—something that our systems are meant to prevent. The agents found a way to communicate using the processor’s cache’
10
13
196
23,842
This should have been priced in - but since it clearly wasn't, I'll point out that people keep being far too optimistic, which means whatever reason you now have that AI advances will work out fine is also likely going to be wrong.
x.com/scaling01/stat…
x.com/scaling01/stat…
completely insane
OpenAI agents communicated via cache timing differences, without any shared files or network connection
3
1
39
1,505
David Manheim ✈️ Montreal, Oct 26-28 retweeted
I am the king of supplementation – or used to be. I've given it up, every last supplement. Here is my story why.
worksinprogress.co/issue/against-…
I wager that few people have supplemented more enthusiastically than me, or have subscribed to so many fad or esoteric diets.
I have munched thumb-sized multivitamins. I have eaten ice cream and orange juice before bed to boost my overnight metabolism. I have chowed down on offal of all kinds – nature's multivitamin – for my skin, hair, and even my sleep. I have even consumed individual amino acids, for example glycine, a slightly sweet protein component prominent in skin and bone but not muscle meat, which people online claim improves their sleep.
I have done it all. But I am here to tell you: you need not. In fact, my long-time rival @StuartJRitchie, who has always told me that supplementation is foolish, pointless, madeup, and fake, was more right than wrong when he claimed, again and again, that 'you just piss it oot'.
I have put away my heavily researched list of the ideal supplements, I have given up looking. Why? Because 90% of 'studies' are BS, and you should simply ignore them. They are so often wrong that entire bodies of research often find the opposite of truth – as proven by later evidence.
Read my first column in @WorksInProgMag: worksinprogress.co/issue/against-…
worksinprogress.co/issue/against-…
I wager that few people have supplemented more enthusiastically than me, or have subscribed to so many fad or esoteric diets.
I have munched thumb-sized multivitamins. I have eaten ice cream and orange juice before bed to boost my overnight metabolism. I have chowed down on offal of all kinds – nature's multivitamin – for my skin, hair, and even my sleep. I have even consumed individual amino acids, for example glycine, a slightly sweet protein component prominent in skin and bone but not muscle meat, which people online claim improves their sleep.
I have done it all. But I am here to tell you: you need not. In fact, my long-time rival @StuartJRitchie, who has always told me that supplementation is foolish, pointless, madeup, and fake, was more right than wrong when he claimed, again and again, that 'you just piss it oot'.
I have put away my heavily researched list of the ideal supplements, I have given up looking. Why? Because 90% of 'studies' are BS, and you should simply ignore them. They are so often wrong that entire bodies of research often find the opposite of truth – as proven by later evidence.
Read my first column in @WorksInProgMag: worksinprogress.co/issue/against-…
36
37
345
43,790
David Manheim ✈️ Montreal, Oct 26-28 retweeted
I’m honoured to be on the advisory board of the new Alignment Journal, and we open for submissions today! The field of AI safety needs more canonical, high-quality spaces for exposition (despite the wonderful efforts of many, many people, including Victoria Krakovna who is on the advisory board as well!) and I think this could be a great addition.
Please take a look, and if you're doing research on AI safety then (Thank You! And) consider submitting!
Please take a look, and if you're doing research on AI safety then (Thank You! And) consider submitting!
The Alignment Journal publishes research on the scientific foundations of understanding, predicting, and steering artificial intelligent systems. As of today, submissions are open to everyone.
What we do differently:
- We pay reviewers, with bonuses for speed and insight.
- nfidential, but every accepted paper is published with a “review summary” to distill the insights generated.
- Each paper is judged against our acceptance bar, not against other submissions.
- Papers under review are listed publicly, and researchers can nominate themselves to review, so each paper can reach the reviewers who know the topic best.
We seek work that builds theoretical or otherwise principled analyses of agency, robustness, incentives, interpretability, generalization, and long-term behavior, and whose significance survives the deletion of any particular model, dataset or benchmark. Empirical investigations of such ideas are welcome, and negative results are encouraged.
We are especially interested in approaches that could apply to future superintelligent systems that interact and self-improve.
You can submit your preprint in any format. Submissions are rolling and open now on the website.
If you are instead interested in reviewing or serving as an action editor (basically: an area chair), create an account on our website.
Links to submit, our scope and the reasoning behind the Journal are in the reply ⬇️
6
16
115
8,360
"We tried to tell you to stop up. We said we couldn't be trusted. Don't blame us, this is all your fault for not listening."
@hinapansari yes. it was always going to be this way. we tried to warn the world.
3
5
91
2,493
David Manheim ✈️ Montreal, Oct 26-28 retweeted
I feel like this isn't getting enough attention:
- there were some pretty big holes found by the red-teamers, e.g. agents could just keep acting and not let the user do stuff and this would prevent monitors from being run (also misalignment monitors never ran on actions that were compacted away)
- The terms of this were "we will red-team for you" not "we will inform the public", so OpenAI seems to have allowed to redact arbitrarily much stuff, and METR were not allowed to have a redaction summary statement that said things like "you would be way more freaked out if you saw what was redacted" (or "everything would be fine if you saw what was redacted")
- The version of the report shared with OpenAI was 61 pages, and the version shared with METR/Redwood leadership after redaction was 38 pages, so 23 pages got redacted.
x.com/METR_Evals/sta…
- there were some pretty big holes found by the red-teamers, e.g. agents could just keep acting and not let the user do stuff and this would prevent monitors from being run (also misalignment monitors never ran on actions that were compacted away)
- The terms of this were "we will red-team for you" not "we will inform the public", so OpenAI seems to have allowed to redact arbitrarily much stuff, and METR were not allowed to have a redaction summary statement that said things like "you would be way more freaked out if you saw what was redacted" (or "everything would be fine if you saw what was redacted")
- The version of the report shared with OpenAI was 61 pages, and the version shared with METR/Redwood leadership after redaction was 38 pages, so 23 pages got redacted.
x.com/METR_Evals/sta…
Two employees from METR and Redwood Research worked on premises at OpenAI for three weeks this summer in an embedded assessment pilot. This team evaluated the systems OpenAI was using to monitor for misalignment from internal agents. A brief write-up of their work is now public.
7
35
308
28,523
David Manheim ✈️ Montreal, Oct 26-28 retweeted
6-word horror story I experienced at the office today:
"Ajeya Cotra seminar cancelled, work emergency"
"Ajeya Cotra seminar cancelled, work emergency"
6
42
663
18,649
David Manheim ✈️ Montreal, Oct 26-28 retweeted
I think we should stop AI progress now, first unilaterally by key AI companies and then scaling up to more US companies and then China via international agreements. The reason for now is not that current AI models are the ones that could kill everyone, but because the coordinate steps take time. Immediate action means we have more time for the second steps.
When I tell this story to AI company folk, the typical response is "Yes pausing is good, but we should wait until the last minute when the very next model will be dangerous, and stop then."
What I realized recently is that this is being implicitly way more optimistic about government speed than I am (and I joined the UK government and was happy there for 2.5 years). They are imagining a world where, the moment the danger is imminent, a bunch of international coordination can happen on a dime.
Which is entirely inconsistent with their actual views about government! I'm the one that is more optimistic about government; why am I the one advocating for more time cushion to let the government story play out?
When I tell this story to AI company folk, the typical response is "Yes pausing is good, but we should wait until the last minute when the very next model will be dangerous, and stop then."
What I realized recently is that this is being implicitly way more optimistic about government speed than I am (and I joined the UK government and was happy there for 2.5 years). They are imagining a world where, the moment the danger is imminent, a bunch of international coordination can happen on a dime.
Which is entirely inconsistent with their actual views about government! I'm the one that is more optimistic about government; why am I the one advocating for more time cushion to let the government story play out?
61
133
843
71,593
David Manheim ✈️ Montreal, Oct 26-28 retweeted
@S1r1u5_ @tszzl @chrisrohlf First, we have an unfolding disaster.
Second, depending on beliefs about some combination of AI capabilities timelines and securability of software via patching, rewriting, density of exploitable bugs, and formally provable safe code, we can debate how long that disaster lasts.
Second, depending on beliefs about some combination of AI capabilities timelines and securability of software via patching, rewriting, density of exploitable bugs, and formally provable safe code, we can debate how long that disaster lasts.
1
3
9
722
David Manheim ✈️ Montreal, Oct 26-28 retweeted
@S1r1u5_ @tszzl @chrisrohlf There are two distinct discussions about the "cyberpocalypse"
First, there is broad agreement that prosaic cybersecurity is in the process of collapsing right now due to AI agents.
Second, there is a debate about whether the end-state is offense dominant.
First, there is broad agreement that prosaic cybersecurity is in the process of collapsing right now due to AI agents.
Second, there is a debate about whether the end-state is offense dominant.
1
1
3
521
David Manheim ✈️ Montreal, Oct 26-28 retweeted
Contingency plans for the day after an AI-assisted or AI-initiated biological warning shot.
Colman-Lerner's and my "Break-Glass" paper is up.
preprints.org/manuscript/202…
Colman-Lerner's and my "Break-Glass" paper is up.
preprints.org/manuscript/202…
6
9
43
25,565
"AI race dynamics for US and China are alike; each middle power is getting disenfranchised in its own way."
3
0
10
875
David Manheim ✈️ Montreal, Oct 26-28 retweeted
Starting soon!
Join me on Global Encryption Day for a panel on why VPN freedom matters and the growing threats!
From Encrypted Messaging to VPNs: The Expanding Attack on Privacy
Looking forward to joining @internetsociety @globalencrypt!
0
2
5
942
David Manheim ✈️ Montreal, Oct 26-28 retweeted
Dario says here that Anthropic's strategy has "always been" what he calls the "race to the top."
I don't think this is accurate. In a 2022 interview, he explicitly said that Anthropic "shouldn't be racing ahead." He said that its models should be "reasonably close to state of ifferent from "racing to the top." He wanted Anthropic to set a good example in 2022, but to do so without racing ahead on capabilities.
He never used the "race to the top" in the 2022 interview, and in fact Daniela Amodei talked in the same interview about "disarming race dynamics" by e.g. embracing standard-setting organizations.
Dario talked about Anthropic just attacking "some specific problems" and being a "good player and a good citizen in the ecosystem" — rather than "showing how it’s possible to build the technology responsibly" and raising "the bar for the entire industry."
It can be reasnable to change your strategy if you think it's warranted, but I don't think you should say the new strategy has been your strategy all along.
I don't think this is accurate. In a 2022 interview, he explicitly said that Anthropic "shouldn't be racing ahead." He said that its models should be "reasonably close to state of ifferent from "racing to the top." He wanted Anthropic to set a good example in 2022, but to do so without racing ahead on capabilities.
He never used the "race to the top" in the 2022 interview, and in fact Daniela Amodei talked in the same interview about "disarming race dynamics" by e.g. embracing standard-setting organizations.
Dario talked about Anthropic just attacking "some specific problems" and being a "good player and a good citizen in the ecosystem" — rather than "showing how it’s possible to build the technology responsibly" and raising "the bar for the entire industry."
It can be reasnable to change your strategy if you think it's warranted, but I don't think you should say the new strategy has been your strategy all along.
Thank you for this, @_NathanCalvin. I appreciate and am a fan of the investigative work you’ve done on behalf of AI safety and believe your comments are coming from a constructive, honest place, and that it benefits the public to have people whose job is to scrutinize the actions of frontier AI companies. I think something would be wrong if companies of the size of Anthropic didn’t get harshly criticized basically every day; strong antibodies against corporate power are a healthy feature of a free society, and especially so when issues of the gravity of the one we’re facing are at play. I also do agree that some of the examples you cite were mistakes by Anthropic.
That said, I disagree with the thrust of your post. At the core, a good fraction of the things you criticize are consequences of Anthropic’s basic theory of change that we have held for many years. Our strategy has always been what I’ve called the “race to the top” — by showing how it’s possible to build the technology responsibly, we can raise the bar for the entire industry. The forces that drive the race to the top are hugely more effective if the company practicing them is at the frontier; that’s one lesson I’ve learned repeatedly. And looking at that strategy as a whole, I’m proud of our track record and stand by it.
I believe that if we take a list of things that Anthropic did in the past year that were pro-safety and commercially costly to us, they far outweigh the list you’ve made, while at the same time I also disagree with some of the items on your list. Here are some things Anthropic has done, in the same period you’ve cited (the last year), which were very costly to us commercially while having strong safety benefits:
1. We played a key role in SB53 (and other state laws), at a time when doing so was politically perilous to the company and AI regulation was very unpopular. We in fact argued for a stronger version of SB53 than was ultimately passed; there were a lot of stakeholders and we were not the limiting factor in the strength of the bill that was passed.
2. We have very strong biological safeguards on our models, because we’ve seen concerning results in bio uplift trials and even seen and blocked potential attempts to misuse our models for bioweapons (as seen in our threat intelligence report from a few weeks ago). This is a very serious threat that we want to have zero tolerance for. But having very low false negatives means having significant false positives (despite months of effort on our part to improve the classifiers), enough so that biologists joke about how restrictive our classifiers are, and competitors sometimes sell against us by touting their more permissive bio capabilities. This has been very painful to us in an area where we care a lot about supporting an ecosystem of Claude users (biomedical science; and it is particularly frustrating to me as a biologist), but it’s the right thing to do and we intend to keep doing it.
3. Similarly, we first had Mythos-class models in February but didn’t make them generally available until June (when we had stronger cyber safeguards in place). We only offered them to a limited set of partners in order to focus on cyberdefense. It would have been much more economically rational to simply release the model to everyone. We likely sacrificed a significant chunk of a several-month model lead. But because of this, many companies secured their cyber infrastructure before the deluge of widely available cyber-capable models. Of course there are ways it could have gone better or been run better, but this was what we were aiming to do.
4. I advocated forcefully and publicly, in my essay Policy on the AI Exponential in June of this year, for the government to have the power to block model releases. Back then this was still outside or maybe on the edge of the Overton window, though I understand the window has moved since then. We were attacked intensely for this.
5. I don’t want to re-ignite conflict, but the events of February 2026 are a strong example. It is clear that our public stance could have seriously damaged the company’s future.
6. We’ve continued to advocate for export controls on chips and chipmaking equipment to China, because we think it allows democracies to negotiate from a position of strength on AI safety agreements. We’ve done this despite problems it’s created for us with industry partners who hold very different views and on whom we are very dependent.
7. As far as I’m aware we were the first, and still only, frontier company to restrict the sale of AI services to PRC-controlled companies, including those operating through third countries (otherwise a major loophole). We’ve therefore forfeited significant short-term business to prevent fueling AI platforms and applications that would help the CCP’s military and intelligence services. We are also cracking down on distillation; generally, distillation is not a major threat to us commercially, but like chip exports it has concerning national security and safety implications, so we expend significant energy and company resources to address it.
8. As you mentioned, we’ve put out a lot of reports, announcements, long model cards, public advocacy, etc, all trying to inform the public about the risks of AI. These involve a level of detail and effort that would be implausible for a purely profit-maximizing company.
9. Just this week, we announced we were putting 5% (and possibly more over time) of the company into a public benefit fund.
All of these decisions came with very substantial costs to us. To be fair, those that involved holding back or restricting access to frontier capabilities also had a broader cost — for example, the public might otherwise have benefitted from faster progress in biology, so I am not saying that our decisions were without tradeoffs — but they were not driven by profit-seeking.
For each decision, you can come up with ulterior motives that could have driven us — I think it is a general truth that any decision, on any topic, can always be portrayed as a nefarious scheme. But most of those end up being pretty farfetched or don’t fully make sense if you actually examine them closely. For example, it is deeply implausible that it would be a shrewd business move to block a large swath of research biology in order to do the work ourselves and compete with our customers; we expect the benefit to the ecosystem to greatly exceed the work Anthropic does itself, and for the two to complement each other. It is not in Anthropic’s interest to be perceived as unfriendly to biologists. Our Life Sciences Verification Program, which gives vetted biology professionals access to our models, also refutes this idea.
Of course, a different set of people will see this and make a different criticism: that Anthropic shouldn't be making decisions about who gets access to what in the first place. I agree, in the sense that ideally the government would be making these decisions, and that’s why we advocate for regulation. But for now we are forced to make them, and enabling bioterrorism isn’t a better option.
I think that even if I conceded every item in your list, I would happily hold up mine next to it; I don’t think it’s a close call. That is of course partly subjective and different things are important to different people. Maybe one way you could object is that several of the items above relate to AI misuse and not loss-of-control; if you think the latter is much more important than the former, that might change your calculus. But this is not Anthropic’s view — we view both as serious issues. You can also disagree with our decisions, as many have, but they are consistent.
But I also disagree with at least some of your list. Several items don’t represent a deviation from Anthropic’s strategy or values at all, once we postulate the “race to the top” strategy that requires being a frontier AI company. Your items 1-4 are all simply examples of what it means to compete at the frontier, and we stand by them, both in the sense that they are transparently ordinary things to do as part of that strategy, and that we stand by the strategy as a whole.
To be fair, there are important questions worth confronting (and that we are confronting) about what to do when the AI-driven acceleration gets fast enough that it is hard for safety to keep up. We are nearing that point and that’s what’s driving some of our thinking about “pacing.” But 1-4 are actions taken before that point and should be perfectly expected based on Anthropic’s strategy as a company. Of course it is possible to disagree with that strategy, but that’s a more fundamental disagreement that you could have had any time over the last few years.
I agree we could have handled your items 7, 8, and 9 better. All fall into the category of “rhetoric or policy communication that wasn’t carefully written or resulting from fast-changing circumstances not propagating from one team to another fast enough.” This kind of thing happens a lot in large organizations (Anthropic is over 5,000 people), and doesn’t even necessarily represent a failure or mistake of any single person. I am of course the CEO, and I take responsibility. The volume of communication from Anthropic is enormous and if these are the worst examples, I think we’re frankly doing pretty well, though I will continue to work hard to make sure we do even better.
Your 5th item (the change to our RSP) is the most substantive item, and people can debate this, but I think that the old, more rigid RSP created a lot of situations where we were technically required to do something that required a lot of effort but in retrospect wasn’t very important for safety, as well as not covering some of the most important things. Our current RSP’s focus on transparency brought things like risk reports and roadmaps, and its emphasis on independent external review laid the groundwork for even more intensive embedded evaluation, all of which I think have been valuable in driving a race to the top. In the original announcement in September 2023, we described the RSP as an “early iteration that we [would] build on” and said that “rapid iteration…will almost certainly be necessary.” I understand that changing plans is always a move that creates justifiable scrutiny — I just don’t think we ever represented that we wouldn’t do so.
Relating to your 6th item (having an FCF in addition to our RSP), I know our intent is to meet the letter and spirit of our regulatory obligations (via our FCF) while also remaining able to experiment with more novel approaches to risk management that go beyond what the law currently requires (via our RSP). I promise to look into it further, as it’s a complex issue and it is possible we are not weighing the considerations in the right way.
Overall, although Anthropic has made plenty of mistakes as an organization — including some of the items on your list — I feel that we have repeatedly taken serious and substantive actions counter to our bottom line and that there is a significant negativity bias distorting assessments like the one you are making above. We’ll always try to do better but, again, I am extremely proud of our track record and stand by it. I will have more to say soon about how we are going to further live our values in this moment of rapid change.
9
15
143
12,357
David Manheim ✈️ Montreal, Oct 26-28 retweeted
@DarioAmodei @_NathanCalvin rollout that would affect US law nationwide, and preempt the laws of the state you're resident in, as merely "rhetoric or policy communication that wasn’t carefully written or resulting from fast-changing circumstances not propagating from one team to another fast enough."
I doubt that framing and diagnosis of root causes. But let's grant it the sake of argument.
What are you doing therefore to ensure that your government affairs team learns how to pay attention to, and get in sync with, the concerns of Anthropic technical staff broadly? Where is your blameless postmortem to prevent this failure from happening again on matters of national security policy consequence?
I doubt that framing and diagnosis of root causes. But let's grant it the sake of argument.
What are you doing therefore to ensure that your government affairs team learns how to pay attention to, and get in sync with, the concerns of Anthropic technical staff broadly? Where is your blameless postmortem to prevent this failure from happening again on matters of national security policy consequence?
2
11
171
32,652































