If CoreWeave $CRWV can't sell GPUs at the PEAK of the AI hype cycle, they're f*cked.
The bond market is currently implying a 50/50 chance of bankruptcy.
If CoreWeave collapses, the fallout will be enormous for the entire AI infrastructure trade.
Oracle $ORCLE IS particularly exposed.
Be careful out there!
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@chamath So now there is a bubble? Weren’t yall saying there is no bubble for like 10 months?
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@chamath I’m forwarding this FUD to Trump directly so he can come after your ass
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@chamath Don't worry, the insiders already cashed out for hundreds of millions, so the only ones getting stuck are regular poor folks like me. Isn't Wall Street great?
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@chamath Since the mid-90s I've watched people lose their minds over one shiny object after another.
The deflation/bust is always painful, they always cry bitter tears, they always scream afterwards for more regulation of one kind or another.
And then do it again.
The deflation/bust is always painful, they always cry bitter tears, they always scream afterwards for more regulation of one kind or another.
And then do it again.
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@chamath People use AI as a better version of Google…and to generate memes and funny pictures of their friends. Yet somehow it’s worth Trillions 😂
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@chamath So you do hate Coreweave? Only posting bad stuffs?
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@chamath Chamath i like you but I'm 90percent sure you're short ai beta. Nothing wrong with that but it means your opinion is biased.
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@chamath Ignorant post by Chamath. He’s trying to tank the stock further. Keep buying and ignore the noise.
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@chamath That's slightly concerning. I hope their margins are good.
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@chamath After listening to your podcast i am disappointed in your posts here. In the podcast you actually explain that coreweave is the best in the business and demand is through the roof.
Your post here is clickbait.
Your post here is clickbait.
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@chamath Still much better performance than your Spacs lol. No one worse!
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@chamath What are your eyeing?
If you’d anyhow worked building out datacenter infrastructure — it is highly unstable, and GPUs are not a collateral for anyone but for investors for some reason.
It's literally super obvious.
If you’d anyhow worked building out datacenter infrastructure — it is highly unstable, and GPUs are not a collateral for anyone but for investors for some reason.
It's literally super obvious.
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@chamath Same thing was being said in 2022 when rates spiked and people were looking at investment grade bonds coming due in 5-10 years trading sub 85. Not saying I’d buy stock/bond of $CRWV but this is a weak argument #investing #trading #TomsTruths
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@chamath This after the flop of the A$43Bn Firmus IPO....the AI bubble is now being starved of capital the bust is not far.
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@chamath How much of their debt is at 15%? Pretty relevant.
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@chamath You were quite literally shilling neoclouds no less than a month ago..
x.com/chamath/status…
x.com/chamath/status…
Prediction: within 12 months, top three models will be open source.
Economic winners will be the American clouds that serve them:
Nebius
Iren
Baseten
Together
Fireworks
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@chamath Exactly... x.com/sshankar/statu…
Sustainable inference businesses are the future. Many early movers may be becoming vessels just for servicing debt now.
--
tl;dr Investors now demand about 15% a year to lend CoreWeave money without collateral, up from about 9.5% in June.
That jump means the market thinks ling to repay have gone up massively.
Key insight: CoreWeave owns mostly older H100 GPUs, and those GPUs are the backstop for its debt.
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@chamath Much appreciate the updates Chamath. Cost of capital - This is a must read - recap of last week’s ideas dinners - institutional investors - eyes on CRWV.
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@chamath Within 2 hours you nailed it bro. Damn you're good at this!
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