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But the Fed isn’t too tight. These people are intellectual light weights. Let’s kill the economy for the last 100bps of inflation.
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Good read on neoclouds from $IREN CEO.
A lot of questions this week on funding, so here's how a GPU typically gets funded at $IREN.
First, the customer signs a multi-year take-or-pay contract and agrees to a prepayment. On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex.
Second, financing is committed, secured by the contracted GPUs. On the Microsoft contract we secured an A-rated facility at around 6%, which together with prepayments covers 96% of GPU capex. More recently, for a non-investment grade counterparty at Mackenzie, we secured financing at 9% fixed, which together with prepayments covers more than the full cost of the GPUs.
That's the GPU side. The data centers are a separate, long-term asset base, and we own the ones our GPUs run in. Construction has been funded from cash to date, with no debt against these multi-billion dollar assets. As they come online with contracted customers, they can support financing in their own right.
The processes behind the next facilities are continuing, and new paper will cost what the market charges. With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts, a wider spread barely moves the economics.
There's more customer demand than we can build for. As we noted at our recent earnings, 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for anything we can bring online in 2027 covers it several times over, with prepayments a focus in every negotiation. Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway.
Meanwhile announced capacity keeps slipping across the industry, which is the point: signing deals isn't the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is, and that's our focus.
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TraderZ retweeted
"Capitalism is the force that drove down the price of almost everything it touched. The state is the force that blew up the price of almost everything it captured. And young people blame the first for the crimes of the second."
On my way to the office this morning, I passed a group of young people protesting, a Palestinian flag draped over their shoulders.
And I asked myself a question I can't shake: why does this generation always fall into the same trap? No matter the history. No matter the context. thy families, who went to the best schools, who were dealt every good card. Always the same trap.
I don't think it's stupidity. I think it's a mechanism. And a mechanism can be taken apart, piece by piece.
A. The observation: everything the state touches becomes unaffordable.
Look at economist Mark Perry's famous chart, the one people call "the chart of the century." It tracks US prices since 2000.
At the top, what explodes: hospital services, college tuition, textbooks, childcare, housing. Increases of +100%, +150%, up to +250%, far above general inflation.
At the bottom, what collapses: TVs, software, phones, toys, clothing. A TV today costs a fraction of what it did in 2000, for an infinitely better product.
Look at what separates the two groups. It isn't technology. It isn't complexity. It's one variable: how much the state is involved.
At the top, sectors that are subsidized, regulated, shielded from competition, where the state funds demand and blocks supply. At the bottom, sectors where companies fight every single morning to serve you better and cheaper.
B. The mechanism: why it's systematic.
When the state subsidizes demand without freeing supply, prices rise. Every time. Guaranteed student loans, and universities raise tuition. Housing aid plus blocked building permits, and rents skyrocket. Administered healthcare, and bureaucracy eats the budget before it ever reaches the patient.
In France it's even more vicious, because the price doesn't disappear: it hides. You never see the hospital bill, you pay it through payroll contributions. You never see the cost of school, you pay it through taxes. Public spending at 57% of GDP, one of the heaviest tax burdens in the world, more than €3.4 trillion in debt. And the result? Overflowing ERs, falling PISA scores, young people who can't afford to live in the city where they work.
The market didn't fail in these sectors. It was never allowed in.
C. Suffering demands a culprit.
A 22-year-old lives all of this in their bones. They can't find a place to live. Their degree either buries them in debt or opens no doors. The future feels blocked. That suffering is real, and I don't deny it for a second.
But human beings can't stand suffering without a culprit. They need a face. A scapegoat.
And this is where everything is decided: who taught them how to read the world?
D. Whoever tells the story picks the villain.
Schools are public. Universities are public. Culture runs on grants. Film goes through funding committees. Public broadcasting shapes the narratives. The people handing down the interpretive framework are, overwhelmingly, paid by the very system that creates the problem.
Do you really think that system is going to name itself as the culprit?
No. It names the capitalist. The boss. The landlord. "The rich." The multinational. The commercial West. Same role, same casting, every time.
E. One lens, a thousand causes.
And this brings me back to that flag. A generation taught to read every situation through a single lens, oppressor on one side, rich, Western, capitalist, oppressed on the other, will apply that lens everywhere. To housing. To climate. To conflicts on the other side of the world. The cause changes, the lens stays. That's why the trap is always the same: it's not the cause that draws them in, it's the way of thinking that was installed in them.
F. The perfect inversion.
Here's the irony. Capitalism is the force that drove down the price of almost everything it touched. The state is the force that blew up the price of almost everything it captured. And young people blame the first for the crimes of the second.
It's like blaming the firefighter for the fire because you saw him at the scene.
G. The ballot box confirms it.
In the US, a few weeks out from the midterms, a large share of urban young voters is getting ready to vote Democrat for more state, more spending, more regulation. New York elected a self-described socialist mayor, carried by young voters, on promises of rent freezes and city-run grocery stores. Rent freezes, the policy that has made housing scarcer everywhere it's been tried. The cure that worsens the disease.
In France, it's the same play in two acts. Part of the youth votes for the radical left, which promises more state. Another part votes for the center, which promises to "manage" the state well, and has dug the debt deeper than ever. Two different ballots, one shared assumption: the problem is the market, the solution is the state.
H. The way out.
These young people aren't stupid. They're right to be angry. They're just aiming at the wrong target.
The day they understand that their rent, their tuition and their hospital are expensive precisely because the state runs them, their anger will change direction. They'll stop protesting against those who create. They'll start protesting against those who capture.
That day, the greatest intellectual scam of our time will be over.
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Most people looking at Nebius ($NBIS) are staring at the wrong number. Yes, the stock trades at a high multiple on trailing net income. That metric was useful five years ago. It is almost useless for a company that grew revenue 454% last quarter, is selling out every GPU it brings online, and just raised prices 17–21%. Its customers are not startups hoping the money lasts. Microsoft and Meta have already signed more than $40 billion in commitments. A large portion of recent deals include substantial prepayments that cover 50–60% of the associated capex. Demand is strong enough that multiple customers compete for every new GPU, and management has said they could sell their entire 2027 capacity on current terms if they wanted to. The company is guiding for $3–3.4 billion of revenue this year at roughly 40% group adjusted EBITDA margins, and $7–9 billion of ARR by the end of 2026. Looking further out, the combination of Microsoft’s multi-year deal, Meta’s dedicated capacity starting in 2027, and Nebius’s plan to add more than 1 GW of new capacity annually points toward roughly $19–21 billion of ARR by the end of 2027, with the potential for more than $10 billion of adjusted EBITDA at recent margins. At a roughly $45 billion market cap, that implies the stock is trading at about 2x a realistic 2027 ARR scenario. That is not expensive for a company with this level of contracted backlog, pricing power, and utilization. It is a company that is still investing heavily in capacity, which is why GAAP earnings lag, but the underlying unit economics and customer quality look very different from a classic bubble story. The market is still valuing Nebius primarily on current losses and near-term dilution risk. If the capacity continues to sell out and the large contracts convert as planned, that valuation framework is likely to look increasingly outdated.
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We are there.
At what point it becomes ridiculous?
$CRWV consensus sales estimate for the next year is around $27 billion, without counting any uplift to per MW pricing.
Currently it trades at 1.3x next year’s sales and probably below 1x exit ARR.
EBIT is projected to inflect post-2027 and in 2028.
If they can survive next year, it’ll be on its way to a $500 billion company.
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We are in desperate need of a lower rates and a rebound in small caps.
JUST IN 🚨: Small Cap Stocks $IWM close below the 200-day moving average for the first time since March and are trading below the 200D MA by the largest margin in 16 months 📉 📉
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The AI infrastructure buildout is running into a tighter financial loop than the demand narrative alone suggests Carnivores. Higher energy-driven inflation risks are keeping a lid on how quickly borrowing costs can fall, while construction and equipment expenses keep pushing the unlevered returns on new projects lower. The result is a narrower gap between what a finished data-center campus earns and what it costs to finance and build it. Companies that still need to raise large amounts of capital to reach their next phase of capacity are the ones most exposed to that compression. Those with funding already locked in, multi-year customer contracts, and enough cash to absorb delays can keep moving even if credit spreads stay elevated. The interesting pressure point is pricing power as new deals will need meaningfully higher revenue per megawatt just to preserve the same equity returns that looked comfortable a year ago. Without that uplift, the growth story stays intact on paper while the returns available to shareholders shrink. #CRWV #NBIS
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Anthropic has told its investors that its third-quarter revenue had jumped to $16.8 Billion and that the company was profitable on an “adjusted basis” in the quarter - FT
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It all rests on lower oil prices. Yields, breadth, inflation, the Fed, and a better discount rate for stocks.
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The bears are wrong again Carnivores. They are locked into the idea that the 10-year stays here or goes higher. I’m calling at top in yields here and sub 5% by year-end 2027. At the same time we get $450 in S&P earnings. So basically all the bulls need is for earnings to show up, yields to fall, and you”ll get higher stock prices into the seasonably bullish post-midterm cycle.
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