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I could not put into words how much today has meant to me.
I’ve been following Intel ever since I was a child and it is not an exaggeration to say they are the reason I fell in love with chips and computers in the first place. I wouldn’t have been able to take the path I have sn’t for the thousands of brilliant hard working engineers at Intel who laid the foundation for the ground I walk on.
When I started following their bold bet on becoming a world class cutting edge foundry about a year ago I was galvanized by the vision that they set out. It wasn’t just important to me that Intel succeeded it was important to me that America succeeded. Silicon Valley was built by them and their cohort and it was critical to me that we not only maintained our standing in the semiconductor industry but for us to grow our industry so 100k other flowers could blossom.
There was no way this could be done without an American foundry on the leading edge. I believed in the plan from the start, and as an engineer myself I was absolutely confident that Intel was developing some of the world’s greatest technology and IP from 18A to backside power delivery to the amazing breakthroughs they’ve achieved in advanced packaging which I like to dub as the new Moore’s Law.
They are just getting started and there is without a shadow of a doubt more to come. Today I was vindicated for everything I’ve been talking about for over a year now. The semiconductor industry is won by those not who focus on optimizing margins but those who invest in innovation to bring value to the whole world.
Lip Bu Tan and the whole Intel team have delivered on innovation… and again this is just the beginning. I will be here waiting, watching, cheering every step of the way. Thank you from the bottom of my heart for the experience, the gifts, and your words of appreciation they mean more to me that you can possibly imagine.
With love,
Bubble Boi 🫧♥️
I’ve been following Intel ever since I was a child and it is not an exaggeration to say they are the reason I fell in love with chips and computers in the first place. I wouldn’t have been able to take the path I have sn’t for the thousands of brilliant hard working engineers at Intel who laid the foundation for the ground I walk on.
When I started following their bold bet on becoming a world class cutting edge foundry about a year ago I was galvanized by the vision that they set out. It wasn’t just important to me that Intel succeeded it was important to me that America succeeded. Silicon Valley was built by them and their cohort and it was critical to me that we not only maintained our standing in the semiconductor industry but for us to grow our industry so 100k other flowers could blossom.
There was no way this could be done without an American foundry on the leading edge. I believed in the plan from the start, and as an engineer myself I was absolutely confident that Intel was developing some of the world’s greatest technology and IP from 18A to backside power delivery to the amazing breakthroughs they’ve achieved in advanced packaging which I like to dub as the new Moore’s Law.
They are just getting started and there is without a shadow of a doubt more to come. Today I was vindicated for everything I’ve been talking about for over a year now. The semiconductor industry is won by those not who focus on optimizing margins but those who invest in innovation to bring value to the whole world.
Lip Bu Tan and the whole Intel team have delivered on innovation… and again this is just the beginning. I will be here waiting, watching, cheering every step of the way. Thank you from the bottom of my heart for the experience, the gifts, and your words of appreciation they mean more to me that you can possibly imagine.
With love,
Bubble Boi 🫧♥️
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Soros level move to sow fear and doubt
@chamathuch.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
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bubble boi retweeted
@bubbleboi Muse just enrolled me back in school and found me some credits I didn’t even know about. Muse is GOATED @alexandr_wang
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Going to be a great tweet to come back to next year.
GPUs are aging like fine wine, with rental rates up across the board since January 1st
Approximate change YTD:
- H200: +160%
- B200: +120%
- RTX PRO 6000: +65%
- H100: +35%
Even the 6-year-old A100 rents for more than it did at the start of the year
Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/charts-of-th…
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bubble boi retweeted
1)This is true , because no BSPDN has to run tighter pitches have to use double patterning EUV
2)High NA EUV use industry standard 6x6 mask and then stitching has already been extremely derisked with the XT260 system
3)18A indeed outpacing A16 on BSPDN
x.com/bubbleboi/stat…
2)High NA EUV use industry standard 6x6 mask and then stitching has already been extremely derisked with the XT260 system
3)18A indeed outpacing A16 on BSPDN
x.com/bubbleboi/stat…
Most of this is true but we should add some color to the last point … the industry has largely solved the smaller die problem by developing stitching (Intel) & bigger masks as an answer (TSM).
Intel 18A also already uses high NA heavily according to Intel & its used in the core ultand D0 already within high volume manufacturing ranges. Stitching has already been extremely derisked with the XT260 system as well (I’m the guy who derisked it lol). The bigger mask work being done by TSM is an alternative but it’s a huge change and is projected to reach production by 2033 with all kinds of other complexity (the whole stage needs to be changed) 💀💀💀
Stitching on the other hand should be good enough for volume production by 2027 at earliest, again it’s been derisked technically a lot (I actually was the person who wrote the RTL for the stage & alignment so i would know lmao). People forget when I was first buying Intel hand over fist it was because I knew the advantage of high na and after the innovations lately it’s only become strongerrrr. Packaging was a sweetener ontop and I’m still in the minority here of betting on foundry turn around.
I don’t just say this just as an Intel shareholder but just as an engineer in general. I honestly think TSMC’s conservative culture and lack of innovation is going to be their downfall. Waiting for 2033 to adopt high NA EUV is going to be the fucking knife through their heart, CoWoS & CoPoS was already a fucking dumpster fire that TSMC is just throwing up their hands and letting the OSATs deal with it.
Rarely do I have this much of an information edge over investors lol. Today I had a great meeting with an investment firm who said they only hold TSM and never bought Intel and they said they just don’t see good ROIC on Intel fab. They did say though that if we thought there were technical reasons that wasn’t going to continue that’s a valid reason to own it.
Let me say this clearly: There are technical reasons as to why the ROI will improve a lot.
I didn’t put all my net worth into Intel 2 years ago for fun lol. I know what’s going on here better than most…
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Yep Chinese models are safer than closed source
Moonshot - on purpose - reduces cyber capability in open weights Kimi K3.1 and ensured much lower performance on Exploitbench (74.7 compared to 100 of GPT-6 Astra) & ExploitGym (20.7 compared to 42.7 of GPT-6 Astra) than frontier models.
They did this by filtering out datasets, as t'emerging' by themselves & not by RLing on those type of tasks. This is a better approach rather than releasing a very cyber capable model with 'safeguards' that can be easily removed.
This is the rigth way, with cyber capable models handed to only responsible parties and put in open domain slowly. But, at the same time frontier labs need to expand access for cyber capabilities to the responsible parties (to their credit - they are doing it). Moonshot - to their credit - has done gentlemanly thing. This is why respectful dialogue is important.
But this also tells you China has as Cyber capable models as capable as with United State agencies - even if they may not be public.
Capability score screenshot on next page..
@teortaxesTex @zephyr_z9 @AGraylin
kimi.ai/blog/kimi-k3-1…
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Absolutely agree Roon & OpenAI are being absolutely disingenuous by promoting this.
That is known trick - well documented (so in training data of these models). Cloud providers specifically guard against it.
That said, not all customer enviroments may have these guardrails.
aws.amazon.com/blogs/compute/…
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Oh yes, the agents are talking to each other through the cache line interesting discovery to come out on the day that Chinese excellence is on full display. What a coincidence!
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bubble boi retweeted
Why do Semiconductor stocks keep falling even though fundamentals remain strong?!
Here's why:
TLDR; The Semiconductor industry consumes a massive 20% of the total risk capital in the global equity markets.
The current share of risk capital for the Tech sector in the broader is 40% vs. its 28% market cap weight. Of this, Semiconductors account for 20% vs. their 13% market cap weight.
Semis' market cap weight has risen rapidly in 2026 and because they're more volatile than the broader market, their share of risk runs well ahead of that weight. Therefore, investors are far more exposed to the Semis industry than even the index weights suggest.
This concentration then changes how the entire sector trades, where most of these selloffs are positioning events - not fundamental-driven.
Steady inflows into equities and thin net equity supply have kept realised vol low. Funds that size positions off VaR or vol-targeted risk budgets respond to low vol by running bigger gross exposure. When vol picks up, the same models force them to cut positions.
Then like a snowball rolling down a hill...that selling lifts vol further which forces the next round of cuts. (It works the opposite way too).
So with ~20% of the global risk budget sitting in Semis, these stocks are the first thing sold whenever risk models flag any shocks...even if fundamentals remain robust.
Data: JPM Global Markets Strategy
Here's why:
TLDR; The Semiconductor industry consumes a massive 20% of the total risk capital in the global equity markets.
The current share of risk capital for the Tech sector in the broader is 40% vs. its 28% market cap weight. Of this, Semiconductors account for 20% vs. their 13% market cap weight.
Semis' market cap weight has risen rapidly in 2026 and because they're more volatile than the broader market, their share of risk runs well ahead of that weight. Therefore, investors are far more exposed to the Semis industry than even the index weights suggest.
This concentration then changes how the entire sector trades, where most of these selloffs are positioning events - not fundamental-driven.
Steady inflows into equities and thin net equity supply have kept realised vol low. Funds that size positions off VaR or vol-targeted risk budgets respond to low vol by running bigger gross exposure. When vol picks up, the same models force them to cut positions.
Then like a snowball rolling down a hill...that selling lifts vol further which forces the next round of cuts. (It works the opposite way too).
So with ~20% of the global risk budget sitting in Semis, these stocks are the first thing sold whenever risk models flag any shocks...even if fundamentals remain robust.
Data: JPM Global Markets Strategy
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So the Chinese just won AI? And we somehow think Anthropic is going to IPO for 1.5T???
If they don’t file soon consider it dead for this year.
If they don’t file soon consider it dead for this year.
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bubble boi retweeted
silicon valley inherited this fetish for quantitative ability from the french and the soviets
the soviets to discourage the population from political understanding. focus on chess or primes, leave the politics to us
the french because math seemed more meritocratic than an aristocratic mastery of history or the classics
pretty weird really
the soviets to discourage the population from political understanding. focus on chess or primes, leave the politics to us
the french because math seemed more meritocratic than an aristocratic mastery of history or the classics
pretty weird really
Most impressive thing I’ve ever seen.
I would like to invest my entire net worth in Cognition now
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How do you square this with the Chinese constantly dropping bangers all the time?
my model of flapping airplanes, and ~all "sky-high-target" neolabs besides thinky and ssi, is that they are some combination of extremely successful self deception and con artistry. there are many multi-bil valuation companies out there that have like some hope of doing some successful enterprise sales and consulting, but near zero chance of achieving their stated mission or goals. they seem to exist mostly as a wrapper for very ambitious people to feel like they're able to have more autonomy than they would at a frontier lab and for investors to feel like they maybe didn't completely and utterly fuck up by not getting early allocation to anthropic.
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Dream Job: Intel CTO.
Long road ahead, I’ll get there eventually. It’s my ninja way.
Long road ahead, I’ll get there eventually. It’s my ninja way.
Intel CTO explains why Intel is helping Elon Musk build Terafab, and what a new fab needs besides tools
DWARKESH: “I think it’ll be interesting to discuss the partnership you guys have with Elon on Terafab. What’s going on there?”
PUSHKAR RANADE (CTO): “Well, I think Elon’s is desire to build a fab.”
[Musk clip spliced in]: “We either build the Terafab or we don’t have the chips. And we need the chips, so we’re going to build the Terafab.”
RANADE: “Sort of the same thinking. I think he’s seeing just an enormous increase in demand for silicon, for compute and for memory. And I think he came to the conclusion that his own businesses are going to require a lot of silicon. And so he thought maybe he should just do it all on his own. Unlike building a car, for example, this is such an intricate and complicated process. We thought we could work together to help accelerate his bringing up his fab.”
DWARKESH: “But because of the bottleneck at the tool level, it seems like the net amount of silicon in the world won’t increase. It’s just that maybe if somebody were to start a new fab, they would get access to guaranteed supply in a way that they wouldn’t have if they’re working with another person’s foundry.”
RANADE: “It’s actually not just tools. I mean, a fab does require a lot of power, a lot of water, a lot of consumables. There’s many other input variables as well.”
DWARKESH: “But those can be scaled in the way that tools cannot.”
RANADE: “Yea. Some more than others, but yes. In one sense, yes, we need a lot more equipment. But it is true, we also need a lot more just raw fab space, raw clean room capacity.”
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