Clayton retweeted
Top ofv the morning!!
It's a brand new day and week to try again
wishing everyone a profitable week ahead
Let's get it!!
It's a brand new day and week to try again
wishing everyone a profitable week ahead
Let's get it!!
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Clayton retweeted
Good morning CT ✨
Happy New Week.
Let's make it productive. If you've lost the energy/passion, remember what you used to be.
Happy New Week.
Let's make it productive. If you've lost the energy/passion, remember what you used to be.
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Clayton retweeted
Success doesnt come overnight. It takes patience hard work and consistency.
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Clayton retweeted
who knows this man 👀?
hint: he proposed the logarithmic market scoring rule
hint: he proposed the logarithmic market scoring rule
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Clayton retweeted
Your mutuals after commenting “Would be taking a closer look at this fr”
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Clayton retweeted
WHITELIST APPLICATION IS LIVE!
Apply now: elynxnft.xyz
First 188 real applicants who complete all requirements get WL.
Apply now: elynxnft.xyz
First 188 real applicants who complete all requirements get WL.
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Clayton retweeted
it's US midterm election day, and you will see a lot of screenshots today saying a party has a 73% chance
here is what that number actually means, because most people read it wrong
a 73% price on a prediction market means the crowd is paying 73 cents for a share that pays $1 if hat is the market's best collective guess, not a promise and it can absolute change
now let's flip it
if one side is at 73c, the other side is priced near 27c
a 27cent outcome happens about 1 time in 4
So when a market favoured one side and the other side wins, the market was not automatically broken
the real way to judge a market is not one race, It is over hundreds of calls
if everything priced at 73c wins about 73% of the time, the market is well calibrated, even though the 27c side wins plenty of times along the way
even a 18c side can win, as we saw in the Brazil Presidential case (Lula)
so three more things to remember tonight
⤷ prices move fast as results come in
⤷ thin markets can be pushed around by one big order
⤷ always check depth, not just the headline number
happy predicting on this day :)
here is what that number actually means, because most people read it wrong
a 73% price on a prediction market means the crowd is paying 73 cents for a share that pays $1 if hat is the market's best collective guess, not a promise and it can absolute change
now let's flip it
if one side is at 73c, the other side is priced near 27c
a 27cent outcome happens about 1 time in 4
So when a market favoured one side and the other side wins, the market was not automatically broken
the real way to judge a market is not one race, It is over hundreds of calls
if everything priced at 73c wins about 73% of the time, the market is well calibrated, even though the 27c side wins plenty of times along the way
even a 18c side can win, as we saw in the Brazil Presidential case (Lula)
so three more things to remember tonight
⤷ prices move fast as results come in
⤷ thin markets can be pushed around by one big order
⤷ always check depth, not just the headline number
happy predicting on this day :)
JUST IN: 73% chance James Talarico beats Ken Paxton to win Texas Senate
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Clayton retweeted
I might not be the best fortune teller you ever met.
but @primus_labs TGE this November?
don’t miss it - s.kaito.ai/WxvOd41
but @primus_labs TGE this November?
don’t miss it - s.kaito.ai/WxvOd41
Trees drop their leaves in November.
They keep their roots.
On a public chain, everything drops: balance, trades, timing.
Privacy is deciding what drops and what stays.
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