THE 15% BAND

Look at this chart.
59 races. Senate and governor.
States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024.

The solid lines are 2024.
The dashed lines are 2026.
The shaded bands are what moved.

One formula fits all of it:
Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024
Democrat 15 × Trump 2024

For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side.

The numbers:
Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share
Governor: ~86%

Variation explained: 88%

What makes it strange:
It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero.

The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races.
Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853.

Why seats flipped:
At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped.

What this means:
Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere.

A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out.

The numbers raise the question.
The ballots can answer it.

The CyberAttack that Hit the FEC Also Hit the Voting Firm “CHAINSTACK” which has an Application that Connects Networks to Submit and Retrieve Vote Counts joehoft.com/cyberattack-th…

🚨🎶 “WE CAUGHT YOU”
Lyrics & Produced by: @MaxsBackPorch
Performed by: The 15% Band
Dedicated to: @POTUS & @TruthAnswersAll
🆙VOLUME🆙

Big! Big! Big!… New Information by “Truth Is Freedom” Reveals Near Impossibility of 2026 Results – 00.15% Chance These Numbers Are Legit @TruthAnswersAll @realDonaldTrump

thegatewaypundit.com/2026/11/big-bi…

Well, it’s been six days since I dropped that graph. I wonder how much longer it will be before we see a model on prior midterms proving this is “normal”. 🤔

Why 15%? It would put ten Republican Senate seats in play.

6 were lost
3 held
1 is still pending.

When asking questions becomes a problem, you’ve identified the problem.

Last night I said I know what this is.
Now I can call it what it is.

The 15% Diversion.

The attacks are coming, but just like the truth, the math is solid.

Here are answers to some of the false criticisms we may all be hearing.

Agreed, the bar should be high. That's why I didn't stop at "kind of matches."

One number, set Nov 5 and never adjusted:
• 34 of 35 Senate Republicans below Trump's 2024 share
• Regression: 0.849, R² = 0.87
• 32 of 35 within 5 points
• Applied unchanged to 36 governor races: 0.854
• 29 of 30 races below Trump vs. a 68.6% historical rate: 1 in 1,670

Red states fell ~9.5 pts, blue ~6.5, and both kept the same 85%. A normal swing moves points. This moved percentages.
That's not "kind of." That's the bar for asking to see the ballots.

When I first posted the 15% Band, I compared Republicans vs. Democrats, so it covered 30 Senate races.

Now that results are nearly final, I updated it to include every vote: Republicans, Democrats, independents, third parties, everyone, in all 35 Senate races. Then I ran a new ce again, the number came back .85.

34 of 35 Senate Republicans fell below President Trump's 2024 share. Red states and blue states lost the same proportion.

In some states the lost votes went to Democrats. In others, like Idaho, Nebraska and Montana, they went to independents. Different opponents, different places for the votes to go, and the Republican share still landed at about 85%.

This isn't just an average. An average can hide states scattered all over the place. A regression tests whether one rule fits every state.

Here, it does: Trump's 2024 share × .85 lands close to the Republican result state after state after state, and explains 87% of the differences between them (R² = .87).

Five nights ago, I was pretty sure. Tonight, I know.

This is real. It deserves an answer.

When asking questions becomes a problem, you’ve identified the problem.

If a conventional explanation accounts for this regularity, someone should model it and show it beating this precision. Until that happens, the anomaly remains, and exploring it is the logical next step.

If you want to help, the next step isn't a legal case, it’s proving an alternative hypothesis.

If a better explanation exists, let's see it modeled. That has yet to have occurred. All I am seeking is the truth.

A single formula tracks Republican 2026 results at 85% of Trump’s 2024 share across dozens of independent Senate and governor races. With two simple adjustments, that same model lands 97% of nearly 700 counties within five points. That is not ordinary statistical scatter.

Dismissing this by claiming it “matches demographic shifts” is just a hypothesis, not a mathematical proof. Traditional turnout models do not produce a fit this clean.

The numbers and the formula are public. If a conventional explanation accounts for this regularity, someone should model it and show it beating this precision. Until that happens, the anomaly remains, and exploring it is the logical next step.

🚨 SAME 15% DROP EVERYWHERE — ITS ELECTION FRAUD!🚨

Two sets of races. Different candidates. Different campaigns. And the same 15 percent decrease almost everywhere.

Republicans kept about 85 percent of Trump’s 2024 share in race after race. One formula fits all of it. times Trump 2024. For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican and 150 landed on the Democrat side.

Senate Republicans kept 85 percent of Trump’s share. Governors 86 percent. It did not matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts — same 15 percent.

The Democrat gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. Any state where Trump got under 58.5 percent falls below 50 percent. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina — all flipped.

Midterms are messy. This one is not. A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level. Paper ballots. Hand counts. Poll book check-ins against votes counted. Voter files showing who actually turned out.

How did they get the percentage this exact across the entire country?

Wow! Democrats Used a Single Formula That Lined Up the Results Perfectly Before a Single Vote Was Counted! thegatewaypundit.com/2026/11/wow-de…

The Odds of Democrats Winning 29 of 30 Midterm Contested Senate Seats is 1 in 5,510 or 00.018% …It Didn’t Happen! thegatewaypundit.com/2026/11/odds-d…

A single formula, fixed before any votes were cast, lined up with the results in county after county so closely that the outcome was basically known in advance.