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“I think you're telling me that Alphabet's undervalued by a trillion dollars.”
This week on @TradingVCs: Google's $500B wipeout, Meta's $95B stock sale, OpenAI's stalled raise and the neocloud credit crunch. Valuation corner: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Plus: @AmanVerjee and w to build AI data centers with a blue Congress.
[ tech and vc news ]
04:45 - AI hangover: @Meta sells $95B in stock
14:26 - @Google loses $500B: is AI killing search?
21:55 - @OpenAI vs @AnthropicAI: 52% of tokens, 34% of dollars
24:19 - OpenAI $30B raise stalls at $11B
29:31 - Credit crunch: AI debt up 6x, neoclouds shut out
42:46 - Valuation mania: @instinct $10B to $30B in a month
48:11 - Secondary corner: continuity SPVs turn paper gains into DPI
[ valuation corner: Kalshi vs Polymarket ]
51:49 - Prediction markets vs the house: 3% fees vs 6% vig
55:52 - @Kalshi $4B revenue, @Polymarket $1B
57:59 - Kalshi $40B, Polymarket $21B, about 10x revenue
58:30 - @DraftKings and @FanDuel shrinking 5–6%
59:57 - Our call: buying Kalshi secondaries
This week on @TradingVCs: Google's $500B wipeout, Meta's $95B stock sale, OpenAI's stalled raise and the neocloud credit crunch. Valuation corner: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Plus: @AmanVerjee and w to build AI data centers with a blue Congress.
[ tech and vc news ]
04:45 - AI hangover: @Meta sells $95B in stock
14:26 - @Google loses $500B: is AI killing search?
21:55 - @OpenAI vs @AnthropicAI: 52% of tokens, 34% of dollars
24:19 - OpenAI $30B raise stalls at $11B
29:31 - Credit crunch: AI debt up 6x, neoclouds shut out
42:46 - Valuation mania: @instinct $10B to $30B in a month
48:11 - Secondary corner: continuity SPVs turn paper gains into DPI
[ valuation corner: Kalshi vs Polymarket ]
51:49 - Prediction markets vs the house: 3% fees vs 6% vig
55:52 - @Kalshi $4B revenue, @Polymarket $1B
57:59 - Kalshi $40B, Polymarket $21B, about 10x revenue
58:30 - @DraftKings and @FanDuel shrinking 5–6%
59:57 - Our call: buying Kalshi secondaries
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🧮 How big can Anthropic get? Aman Verjee sizes the market the way a banker would:
"They did the old SpaceX trick of putting $30 trillion of TAM into the S-1. It's the entire U.S. economy.
The way that I would do the TAM, if I were a banker: how many customers do I have at g me more than $100,000 a year? And that number was $11,900, which is amazing...
So they've built a Salesforce in the space of a year.
If you're an enterprise making $10 million in revenue or more and you spend 1% of your revenue on Claude or a competitive model, to me, that seems pretty reasonable...
There's like 250,000 of those businesses in the U.S."
— @AmanVerjee, co-host of Trading Places, with @davemcclure on the Trading Places VC podcast
"They did the old SpaceX trick of putting $30 trillion of TAM into the S-1. It's the entire U.S. economy.
The way that I would do the TAM, if I were a banker: how many customers do I have at g me more than $100,000 a year? And that number was $11,900, which is amazing...
So they've built a Salesforce in the space of a year.
If you're an enterprise making $10 million in revenue or more and you spend 1% of your revenue on Claude or a competitive model, to me, that seems pretty reasonable...
There's like 250,000 of those businesses in the U.S."
— @AmanVerjee, co-host of Trading Places, with @davemcclure on the Trading Places VC podcast
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.@AmanVerjee and @davemcclure break down what Andreessen Horowitz actually pulled out of the $60 billion SpaceX-Cursor deal:
"Thrive and Andreessen both made 150x on their investments.
Returning $6 billion, $6.5 billion, $9 billion.
The SpaceX acquisition of Cursor for $60 the biggest, if not the biggest M&A of all time.
OpenAI Startup Fund invested $6 million. Other investors invested $2 million... they got between 400x and 100x returns on their money."
"Thrive and Andreessen both made 150x on their investments.
Returning $6 billion, $6.5 billion, $9 billion.
The SpaceX acquisition of Cursor for $60 the biggest, if not the biggest M&A of all time.
OpenAI Startup Fund invested $6 million. Other investors invested $2 million... they got between 400x and 100x returns on their money."
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Anthropic and OpenAI can't keep growing like this.
So what happens next?
Both AI labs have grown at a pace few companies ever reach. Trading Places co-host @AmanVerjee, who has taken companies public, gives his forecast for the next 12 months, and the business he expects them n Verjee with @davemcclure on Episode 52 of the Trading Places VC podcast.
So what happens next?
Both AI labs have grown at a pace few companies ever reach. Trading Places co-host @AmanVerjee, who has taken companies public, gives his forecast for the next 12 months, and the business he expects them n Verjee with @davemcclure on Episode 52 of the Trading Places VC podcast.
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🏘️ Want to build an AI data center in my district? Trading Places co-hosts @davemcclure and @AmanVerjee have a price:
"Maybe we need to have a version of pork barrel politics: for every three dollars that you're spending on AI data centers, maybe you need to spend a dollar ousing in your congressional district in order to get that deal to move forward.
...Affordable housing, maybe a bonus plan for your public school teachers.
...That's how we built America, baby.
...That is exactly how it worked during the factory boom in the late 1800s."
— Dave McClure and Aman Verjee of @PracticalVC on the Trading Places VC podcast
"Maybe we need to have a version of pork barrel politics: for every three dollars that you're spending on AI data centers, maybe you need to spend a dollar ousing in your congressional district in order to get that deal to move forward.
...Affordable housing, maybe a bonus plan for your public school teachers.
...That's how we built America, baby.
...That is exactly how it worked during the factory boom in the late 1800s."
— Dave McClure and Aman Verjee of @PracticalVC on the Trading Places VC podcast
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💸 Elon spent hundreds of millions trying to keep Congress Republican. Trading Places co-host @davemcclure on why it barely registers, and what the blue wave means for AI data centers:
"I think Elon probably increased his spend from the last election... probably over $400 n.
It's kind of a drop in the bucket for him... that might be the equivalent of you or I spending a thousand bucks as a donation.
...I think that build-out is still going to happen, at least to some extent, but... you might have to play a little bit of pork politics to get that stuff to happen."
— Dave McClure, founder of 500 Startups and @PracticalVC, with @AmanVerjee on the Trading Places VC podcast
"I think Elon probably increased his spend from the last election... probably over $400 n.
It's kind of a drop in the bucket for him... that might be the equivalent of you or I spending a thousand bucks as a donation.
...I think that build-out is still going to happen, at least to some extent, but... you might have to play a little bit of pork politics to get that stuff to happen."
— Dave McClure, founder of 500 Startups and @PracticalVC, with @AmanVerjee on the Trading Places VC podcast
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What happened online after Ukraine's drones hit Russian data centers?
"Ukraine's drones... had earlier this month been attacking not just refineries, but also data centers.
A lot of online services in Russia were offline... also online banking and payment services, because they ther things there.
But surprisingly, we saw some changes in the US online world when a whole bunch of bot traffic seemed to slow down."
— @davemcclure, founder of 500 Startups and @PracticalVC, with @AmanVerjee on the Trading Places VC podcast
"Ukraine's drones... had earlier this month been attacking not just refineries, but also data centers.
A lot of online services in Russia were offline... also online banking and payment services, because they ther things there.
But surprisingly, we saw some changes in the US online world when a whole bunch of bot traffic seemed to slow down."
— @davemcclure, founder of 500 Startups and @PracticalVC, with @AmanVerjee on the Trading Places VC podcast
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🚀 What makes @SpaceX's latest earnings call different?
"They were aiming at getting to $500 billion in revenue, that's with a B, by 2030.
On their Q2 call, they moved it up to 2029. And on the call this week, they moved that up to 2027.
...The other good news on the call is criptive this time on how to achieve those revenues.
...As long as he can sell or rent all that stuff out and price it at spot prices... you're talking about $390 to $520 billion in ARR within a year.
...The press takes him literally, but not seriously, and his supporters take him seriously, but not literally."
— @davemcclure, founder of 500 Startups and @PracticalVC, with @AmanVerjee on the Trading Places VC podcast
"They were aiming at getting to $500 billion in revenue, that's with a B, by 2030.
On their Q2 call, they moved it up to 2029. And on the call this week, they moved that up to 2027.
...The other good news on the call is criptive this time on how to achieve those revenues.
...As long as he can sell or rent all that stuff out and price it at spot prices... you're talking about $390 to $520 billion in ARR within a year.
...The press takes him literally, but not seriously, and his supporters take him seriously, but not literally."
— @davemcclure, founder of 500 Startups and @PracticalVC, with @AmanVerjee on the Trading Places VC podcast
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📈 Democrats swept Congress and the Dow had its best post-midterm day since 1982.
Here's why the market saw it coming:
"I want to say the NASDAQ peaked around October 6th. I think the NASDAQ, though, is just pricing in most of the election results that we saw yesterday.
...If and Kalshi beginning in early October, the markets began to suggest that it was going to be a Democratic sweep of Congress.
...I used to trade bonds for a living and there's an old adage about sell the news and buy the event.
...I think the effect of yesterday was more or less priced in before the votes were counted."
— @AmanVerjee, Founder and General Partner of @PracticalVC, with @davemcclure on the Trading Places VC podcast
Here's why the market saw it coming:
"I want to say the NASDAQ peaked around October 6th. I think the NASDAQ, though, is just pricing in most of the election results that we saw yesterday.
...If and Kalshi beginning in early October, the markets began to suggest that it was going to be a Democratic sweep of Congress.
...I used to trade bonds for a living and there's an old adage about sell the news and buy the event.
...I think the effect of yesterday was more or less priced in before the votes were counted."
— @AmanVerjee, Founder and General Partner of @PracticalVC, with @davemcclure on the Trading Places VC podcast
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🧪 #YouCanSeeEverything tells one side of the Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos story. Here's what @nathanfielder and Lance Oppenheim left out:
"Here's a few facts that you will not get from the movie, okay?
Back in 2014, 2015, she represented to investors that her company was n in revenue. Some presentations said 140 million in revenue.
In reality, it was making $100,000 in revenue.
She used the corporate logo of Pfizer to mislead investors into thinking Pfizer had signed off on her tech. They had not.
...She says in the movie she doesn't care about money. She had pulled millions of loans from her company and was living in Atherton. You don't find that out from the movie."
— @AmanVerjee, Founder and General Partner of @PracticalVC, on the Trading Places VC podcast
"Here's a few facts that you will not get from the movie, okay?
Back in 2014, 2015, she represented to investors that her company was n in revenue. Some presentations said 140 million in revenue.
In reality, it was making $100,000 in revenue.
She used the corporate logo of Pfizer to mislead investors into thinking Pfizer had signed off on her tech. They had not.
...She says in the movie she doesn't care about money. She had pulled millions of loans from her company and was living in Atherton. You don't find that out from the movie."
— @AmanVerjee, Founder and General Partner of @PracticalVC, on the Trading Places VC podcast
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Watch a VC's full breakdown of You Can See Everything: youtu.be/kEfSH3cFwbw?si…
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“I actually interviewed for the Theranos CFO job back in 2015.”
Now @AmanVerjee reviews You Can See Everything and points out the facts it is missing.
[ special: you can see everything review ]
01:25 - @theranos: almost $1B raised, zero VC money
03:15 - What the film skips: al revenue
04:37 - Any blood test claim vs the demo Aman saw
06:00 - Aman interviewed for Theranos CFO in 2015
07:56 - Great film @nathanfielder, weak documentary @ElizabethHolmes: 9.3 on IMDb
08:13 - @AmandaSeyfried reenacts the jail talks
11:33 - Billy Evans side deal: who tells the story?
12:28 - Final Verdict
Now @AmanVerjee reviews You Can See Everything and points out the facts it is missing.
[ special: you can see everything review ]
01:25 - @theranos: almost $1B raised, zero VC money
03:15 - What the film skips: al revenue
04:37 - Any blood test claim vs the demo Aman saw
06:00 - Aman interviewed for Theranos CFO in 2015
07:56 - Great film @nathanfielder, weak documentary @ElizabethHolmes: 9.3 on IMDb
08:13 - @AmandaSeyfried reenacts the jail talks
11:33 - Billy Evans side deal: who tells the story?
12:28 - Final Verdict
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🫧 Two of AI's biggest valuations were just marked down in the same month. Here's the worry underneath:
"I think there's concerns about the ROI on the spend. We know that the cost of financing and these compute commitments is becoming really expensive.
That's a lot of money to inance or to raise.
And even slight changes in interest rates and the cost of financing, which we're definitely seeing in the AI trade, makes a big difference in terms of the efficiency."
— @AmanVerjee and @davemcclure on the Trading Places VC podcast
"I think there's concerns about the ROI on the spend. We know that the cost of financing and these compute commitments is becoming really expensive.
That's a lot of money to inance or to raise.
And even slight changes in interest rates and the cost of financing, which we're definitely seeing in the AI trade, makes a big difference in terms of the efficiency."
— @AmanVerjee and @davemcclure on the Trading Places VC podcast
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youtube.com/@tradingvcs?si…
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💸@AnthropicAI's early investors are sitting on huge returns. One of them left the table in the worst possible way:
"Those early rounds were actually led by angels. Jaan Tallinn, Dustin Moskovitz, Eric Schmidt. They'll get a 300X return...
The leads in the series B, also not the big lead was FTX. Sam Bankman-Fried would have had an 80X return on his money. A $500 million check would be worth $40 billion today, but there's a plot twist...
He sold it for $1.3 billion back in 2024. They could have made everyone at FTX whole, but they sold it at a significant 95% discount...
Worst trades ever. I got five words for you. Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields."
— @AmanVerjee on Trading Places VC podcast
"Those early rounds were actually led by angels. Jaan Tallinn, Dustin Moskovitz, Eric Schmidt. They'll get a 300X return...
The leads in the series B, also not the big lead was FTX. Sam Bankman-Fried would have had an 80X return on his money. A $500 million check would be worth $40 billion today, but there's a plot twist...
He sold it for $1.3 billion back in 2024. They could have made everyone at FTX whole, but they sold it at a significant 95% discount...
Worst trades ever. I got five words for you. Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields."
— @AmanVerjee on Trading Places VC podcast
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Elon didn't start xAI just to compete in the AI race.
He's playing a much bigger game.
"My skepticism with Elon getting into the AI business was really about his sour grapes over OpenAI...
He saw all the attention going to OpenAI and then Anthropic, and him wanting to get into as created.
Now I think there's entirely different motivations. He now realizes, hey, the frontier model isn't the game. It's the infrastructure for both frontier models and open weight models and everybody else. That's the game...
And he's attacking it like a dog on a bone. And I really don't want to bet against Elon in this area."
—@davemcclure with @AmanVerjee on the Trading Places VC podcast
He's playing a much bigger game.
"My skepticism with Elon getting into the AI business was really about his sour grapes over OpenAI...
He saw all the attention going to OpenAI and then Anthropic, and him wanting to get into as created.
Now I think there's entirely different motivations. He now realizes, hey, the frontier model isn't the game. It's the infrastructure for both frontier models and open weight models and everybody else. That's the game...
And he's attacking it like a dog on a bone. And I really don't want to bet against Elon in this area."
—@davemcclure with @AmanVerjee on the Trading Places VC podcast
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youtube.com/@tradingvcs?si…
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