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Moving into next week it is looking increasingly likely that we could see the earliest recorded SSW by nearly 3 weeks.
ECMWF currently goes to around -3m/s while the GFS floats around the 0m/s mark and briefly ducking under this.
The ECMWF AIFS is looking the most bullish 7m/s with the AIFS ensembles showing a 37% chance of a reversal, IFS Ensembles at 97% & and 71% chance on the GEFS for a reversal.
ECMWF currently goes to around -3m/s while the GFS floats around the 0m/s mark and briefly ducking under this.
The ECMWF AIFS is looking the most bullish 7m/s with the AIFS ensembles showing a 37% chance of a reversal, IFS Ensembles at 97% & and 71% chance on the GEFS for a reversal.
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Another wet and windy night for Northern Ireland and Scotland, where a yellow weather warning comes into force from 03:00.
For the rest of the UK a cold front moves eastwards bringing a squall line with it, this will bring a spell of very intense wind and rain all be it brief. rm night for most ahead of the cold front.
For the rest of the UK a cold front moves eastwards bringing a squall line with it, this will bring a spell of very intense wind and rain all be it brief. rm night for most ahead of the cold front.
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Looking into the SPV now as there is the likelihood that the polar vortex will significantly weaken in the coming weeks, with most of the ensemble models from the GFS and ECMCF showing the PV weakening to the 0-10m/s range with a few members dipping briefly into the reversal ain to above average values.
Currently its looking like a displacement event and whether any effects of this weakening propagate to the surface a few weeks after remain to be seen.
The GEFS below has 13/31 members showing a reversal currently.
Currently its looking like a displacement event and whether any effects of this weakening propagate to the surface a few weeks after remain to be seen.
The GEFS below has 13/31 members showing a reversal currently.
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Here are some stats and figures from the MO observations from 21:00 Saturday until 21:00 Sunday.
This was generated yesterday evening and so some of these figures may have changed in the hours since.
This was generated yesterday evening and so some of these figures may have changed in the hours since.
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TorCast Ai retweeted
REMNANTS OF BOELO — FINAL ADVISORY #18
Winds: 85mph
CWSIS: Remnant Low (RL)
MSLP: 964mb
The European Windstorm Season tracking centre has issued Final Advisory 18 for the remnants of Boelo. This is the last advisory today.
The system is currently analyzed with winds of 85 mph a minimum central pressure of 964 mb (hPa).
Boelo's remnants continue to be tracked across northern Europe, with the forecast indicating impacts across parts of the British Isles and surrounding regions.
The system's associated wind field may continue to bring strong winds, hazardous conditions, and potential disruption as it gradually loses its organized structure.
This is the final advisory for Boelo. Further updates to the system's status and track will no longer be issued under this advisory series.
#StormBoelo #Advisory18 #CycloneTracking #EuropeanWindstorm #WeatherUpdate #Windstorm #SevereWeather #WindWarnings #Windstorm #Boelo
Winds: 85mph
CWSIS: Remnant Low (RL)
MSLP: 964mb
The European Windstorm Season tracking centre has issued Final Advisory 18 for the remnants of Boelo. This is the last advisory today.
The system is currently analyzed with winds of 85 mph a minimum central pressure of 964 mb (hPa).
Boelo's remnants continue to be tracked across northern Europe, with the forecast indicating impacts across parts of the British Isles and surrounding regions.
The system's associated wind field may continue to bring strong winds, hazardous conditions, and potential disruption as it gradually loses its organized structure.
This is the final advisory for Boelo. Further updates to the system's status and track will no longer be issued under this advisory series.
#StormBoelo #Advisory18 #CycloneTracking #EuropeanWindstorm #WeatherUpdate #Windstorm #SevereWeather #WindWarnings #Windstorm #Boelo
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TorCast Ai retweeted
Incredibly close to UK October MSLP record with 948.1 hPa at Stornoway at 22Z Saturday, but just slightly north of the centre of #Boelo. It's likely a lower MSLP value would have been recorded had there been an observation station farther south on Harris.
x.com/danholley_/sta…
x.com/danholley_/sta…
As Storm #Boelo tracks across N/NW Scotland on Sat night, its central pressure is likely to be 946-949 hPa.
The current UK Oct low MSLP record is 947.9 hPa (Storm Amy 2025). There's a chance we could beat this... just one week after near-record high MSLP
x.com/danholley_/sta…
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Plenty of strikes off the coast of Scotland throughout today. The AI model once again correctly identifying the risk,
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TorCast Ai retweeted
⚠️ Yellow weather warning issued ⚠️
Storm Boelo will bring the risk of heavy rain across Wales and parts of western and southern England
Saturday 1100 - 2300
Latest info 👉 bit.ly/WxWarning
Stay #WeatherAware ⚠️
Storm Boelo will bring the risk of heavy rain across Wales and parts of western and southern England
Saturday 1100 - 2300
Latest info 👉 bit.ly/WxWarning
Stay #WeatherAware ⚠️
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Here are the percentage chance for gusts of wind from 50 to 80mph via the 12z ECMWF 51 Member ensemble for #StormBoelo
🌬️ FINAL WIND OUTLOOK: STORM BOELO
📅 Tomorrow at midday – Sunday at midnight
🔴 LEVEL 4/5 — VERY SEVERE GUST RISK ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Exposed coastal areas, particularly headlands across Scotland, face the potential for violent gusts exceeding 85mph. Significant disruption is likely in y life-threatening conditions in the most exposed locations. The risk also extends a little inland.
🟠 LEVEL 3/5 — SEVERE GUST RISK ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Scotland, far northern England and exposed coastal areas of Northern Ireland will face severe gusts exceeding 70mph. These gusts are likely along coasts and will also affect some inland areas, particularly further north and in exposed locations. Significant disruption and dangerous conditions are possible.
🟡 LEVEL 2/5 — VERY STRONG GUST RISK ⭐⭐☆☆☆
Coastal areas across the British Isles, along with northern parts of the UK, will experience very strong gusts exceeding 55mph. Disruption will occur in some areas, particularly along exposed coastlines and elevated terrain.
🟢 LEVEL 1/5 — STRONG GUST RISK ⭐☆☆☆☆
Strong gusts exceeding 40mph will affect the entire British Isles. Some exposed inland and coastal locations, including parts of southern Britain, will see gusts approaching 50mph. Localised disruption is possible.
📌 IMPACTS & GUIDANCE
For details of the potential impacts associated with each risk level, please refer to my Wind Risk Guide on the right-hand side of the outlook.
⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This is my own unofficial wind outlook and is not an official Met Office forecast or warning. For official forecasts, weather warnings and safety advice, please consult the Met Office website.
⭐ CONFIDENCE: 3/5 — MODERATE CONFIDENCE ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
#StormBoelo #UKWeather #WindOutlook #WeatherUpdate
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Here's the latest multi-model guidance on the track of #StormBoelo from ECMWF, GFS, ICON-EU,UKMO and ARPEGE
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Over the last few hours numerous storms have broken out over Lincolnshire, with 4 cells producing 205 strikes in the last 15 mins alone.
Below are a few screenshots from the AI Model from the last few hours showing the risk and the overlayed lightning strikes.
Below are a few screenshots from the AI Model from the last few hours showing the risk and the overlayed lightning strikes.
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TorCast Ai retweeted
Storm Austen is bringing strong and gusty winds across southern parts of England and Wales this morning ⚠️
Here are the highest wind gusts recorded so far 👇
Here are the highest wind gusts recorded so far 👇
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TorCast Ai retweeted
💨🌧️ La tempête #AUSTEN poursuit son parcours et se décale peu à peu en direction des Hauts-de-France.
🌀La pression est actuellement descendue à 977,2 hPa sur une bouée en mer de la Manche.
🌬️ Les rafales de vent ont été très costaudes, notamment sur le littoral, avec des 50km/h avant 10h, entre le Finistère et la Manche.
Voici quelques valeurs enregistrées à cette heure :
💨 -> 161km/h à la Pointe du Raz (29)
💨 -> 158km/h à Ouessant (29)
💨 -> 150km/h à Île de Groix (56)
💨 -> 146km/h à Barneville - Carteret (50)
💨 -> 145km/h à Saint-Vaast-la-Hougue (50)
💨 -> 144km/h à Brignogan (29)
💨 -> 143km/h à la Pointe de chemoulin (44)
💨 -> 143km/h à la Pointe Saint-Mathieu (29)
💨 -> 143km/h à la Pointe du Roc - Granville (50)
💨 -> 141km/h à la Pointe de Penmarch (29)
🌀La pression est actuellement descendue à 977,2 hPa sur une bouée en mer de la Manche.
🌬️ Les rafales de vent ont été très costaudes, notamment sur le littoral, avec des 50km/h avant 10h, entre le Finistère et la Manche.
Voici quelques valeurs enregistrées à cette heure :
💨 -> 161km/h à la Pointe du Raz (29)
💨 -> 158km/h à Ouessant (29)
💨 -> 150km/h à Île de Groix (56)
💨 -> 146km/h à Barneville - Carteret (50)
💨 -> 145km/h à Saint-Vaast-la-Hougue (50)
💨 -> 144km/h à Brignogan (29)
💨 -> 143km/h à la Pointe de chemoulin (44)
💨 -> 143km/h à la Pointe Saint-Mathieu (29)
💨 -> 143km/h à la Pointe du Roc - Granville (50)
💨 -> 141km/h à la Pointe de Penmarch (29)
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Likely won’t get an outlook out this evening but @WxMaccaUK has one, as the risk of storms increases as Austen moves in through this evening and overnight
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK | TODAY 17:00 – TOMORROW 05:00
An ENHANCED RISK has been issued for the far southwest and small portions of the south coast, with the risk extending offshore across parts of the Atlantic and English Channel, where marginally severe thunderstorms are possible.
e locally damaging wind gusts, potentially reaching 60-70 mph offshore and 55 mph inland, alongside torrential rainfall that could trigger localised flooding where storms move onshore. ECMWF and UKV guidance both suggest some storms may clip coastal areas and move inland.
Strong low-level wind shear may also support waterspouts over coastal waters, with a brief tornado possible inland. Largely saturated profiles could limit lightning activity overall; however, strong kinematic forcing and enhanced instability, particularly over warmer sea-surface temperatures, may allow embedded convection to develop sufficient depth for intense, thundery downpours.
Where stronger updrafts develop, moderate to locally high shear could support organised convection, bringing a lower-probability risk of hail within the most vigorous cells.
Main threats: Damaging wind gusts and excessive rainfall. Lightning, hail and brief tornadoes remain secondary, lower-confidence hazards.
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What are the predicted % chance for the wind gusts from #StormBoelo from the ECMWF ensemble?
Below is the sequence of wind gusts from 50 --> 80mph
Below is the sequence of wind gusts from 50 --> 80mph
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