Big increase in EPS members going for
a SSW on today’s sub-seasonal forecast since the 23rd, when there was just one or two stragglers going for it.
Unprecedented events seem to happen a lot these days in meteorology and there’s little historical precedent to judge how it might ver the coming weeks following a record early SSW for November.
a SSW on today’s sub-seasonal forecast since the 23rd, when there was just one or two stragglers going for it.
Unprecedented events seem to happen a lot these days in meteorology and there’s little historical precedent to judge how it might ver the coming weeks following a record early SSW for November.
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Widespread fog forecast to develop overnight across central, southern and eastern England at the weekend - could make it suitably spooky for #Halloween
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Nick's Weather Eye retweeted
📹 Primeras imágenes aéreas de la tragedia ferroviaria que ha tenido lugar en Toledo
Se han confirmado al menos 50 víctimas mortales
Se han confirmado al menos 50 víctimas mortales
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High pressure in late autumn often means fog forming overnight where skies clear and winds fall light - could become widespread in the mornings at the weekend, slow to clear too with the weaker sun.
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No major SSW has occurred before November 28th since records began in 1959, so an event in the first week of November would beat the record by roughly three weeks.
The most likely outcome is the vortex elongates and briefly splits but then quickly merges back into one vortex - but a polar vortex that is displaced.
Could lead to high latitude blocking later in November and risk of colder spells in Northern Europe, but depends where the displacement ends up. Since this would be an extremely early event, with the vortex not yet fully set up, there’s little historical precedent to judge how it might play out.
The most likely outcome is the vortex elongates and briefly splits but then quickly merges back into one vortex - but a polar vortex that is displaced.
Could lead to high latitude blocking later in November and risk of colder spells in Northern Europe, but depends where the displacement ends up. Since this would be an extremely early event, with the vortex not yet fully set up, there’s little historical precedent to judge how it might play out.
47/50 EPS 94% members showing a U wind reversal #SSWE from the 12z EPS run.
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Just by chance from Tesco’s car park in Ashford, Kent late this afternoon a more unusual short rainbow 🌈 within a rain shaft from a shallow shower cloud north of town.
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Much needed fresh sea air this afternoon down near Dungeness in Kent after being stuck indoors a lot recently with the wet weather. Fish and chips was had at the Pilot Inn after, recommend it for this if anyone is down that way, don’t have to book but gets very busy.
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Nick's Weather Eye retweeted
✈️ Powerful winds from Storm Boelo made for some challenging landings at Birmingham Airport in England as pilots battled gusty conditions to get their planes safely on the ground.
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Bored pets on a rainy day, both don’t like going out when it’s wet, the cat just wants sit on me and get my attention at any opportunity I sit down rather than go out and keep cats away from his territory
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Here comes the rain again, does look to turn drier from Wednesday- as high pressure builds
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Almost full moon tonight, very bright on this cold and clear night, love the way it cast shadows outside
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Nick's Weather Eye retweeted
Who knows what impact this will have on the actual weather. But for the #SSWE fans, 62% of the 12z EPS members do show a U wind reversal at 10mb at 60 N.
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Nick's Weather Eye retweeted
Dawn at Glenshee this morning - little wind and nice white mountaintops
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Dark by half five this evening, more time indoors over the coming months, colder and more rain, shutting the world out behind curtains. Fine by me though spending half the year more introvert, quieter with windows shut, people indoors, more time to think, be creative undisturbed
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Nick's Weather Eye retweeted
Watching the potential for a sudden stratospheric warming event in early November 👀
The key will be whether its effects couple downward into the troposphere, where they could alter weather patterns. So far, there's no clear sign of that happening.
The key will be whether its effects couple downward into the troposphere, where they could alter weather patterns. So far, there's no clear sign of that happening.
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