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I’ll spell it out explicitly one last time.
Everyone thinks Trump wants balanced trade. He does not.
He wants to force allies to stop trading with China. Completely. Zero inbound supply.
Because it’s not just because of American jobs. It’s a proactive move to slow down Chinas industrial rise.
Everything is downstream of this. Reserve currency status. The ability to address fiscal debt.
It’s a crazy risk because China has a vote.
It’s a crazy risk because you are forcing Europe to commit seppeku because they have very little leverage or say in the matter.
It’s a crazy risk because Xi might bomb the fabs in Taiwan and the world doesn’t get AGI.
It’s a crazy risk because China knows how financialized we are and will dump bonds and equities to drive anger towards trump.
But it also has benefits if it works.
If your allies can’t trade with China there is no near peer competitor to worry about.
That has a ton of benefits. Just look at what happened after WW2/USSR collapse when American was the last man standing.
Hegemony.
Trumps advisors like Miran believe that you can coerce your allies to pay for your security umbrella in the form of buying longer dated treasuries.
This removes the overhangs of the debt load while allowing you to pump markets in time for midterms.
If Mexico can’t import from China then you solved the fentanyl crisis because they won’t have precursors.
More importantly by establishing a tolerance for risk the level of fear you can instill in cartels is an order of magnitude higher.
“Shit if they risked WW3 they won’t think twice about droning Sinaloa. “
This same “logic” applies to the Middle East.
Now I will repeat for the 100x that this is not advocacy.
I’m only telling you guys what the people in power believe. And I’m telling you that what happens next if I’m right will come down to how Xi wants to fight.
He can go gloves off or glove on. There are real constraints as I have outlined in prior tweets.
But there is a plan and therefore the tolerance for market pain is way way higher than you think.
Because first you need Europe to be willing to commit economic seppuku. And they won’t want to (rightly). So Trump will crush them economically until they cry uncle. And then they still won’t want to and he’s going to threaten to defang NATO. And then they still won’t want to and he will withdraw swap lines.
Or a lot more likely, he will do it all very forcefully and all at once to maximize leverage.
Now you’ll rightly ask… why wasn’t this messaged better? Why have midwits like Lutnik on the team?
Because you are attempting to execute a reckless gambit where the big variables are not what the tariffs rates are. Or if you tariff penguins. Or if the person sounds dumb on TV. Non of that matters.
What matters is - will Japan capitulate quickly and agree to buy a large amount of treasuries? Will Saudi capitulate quickly with your B2 bombers waiting in Diego Garcia to bomb Iran? Will China invade Taiwan?
Many of you think everyone around Trump is retarded. I get it. You hate the guy and everything he stands for. But I will say this until I’m blue in the face. Bessant, and even Miran, have higher IQs than most if not all of you. They thought through the second order effects. Believe me. If I, a dumb TMT L/S bro thought this far ahead, they certainly did too. Which means they warned Trump how risky this was and how deeply irrational it is if you planned to eventually cut a deal with China. Therefore you have to assume Trump heard the risks and said “fuck it we ball” anyways.
Economic Blitzkrieg. That’s what we’re seeing. And it’s only the start.
Everyone thinks Trump wants balanced trade. He does not.
He wants to force allies to stop trading with China. Completely. Zero inbound supply.
Because it’s not just because of American jobs. It’s a proactive move to slow down Chinas industrial rise.
Everything is downstream of this. Reserve currency status. The ability to address fiscal debt.
It’s a crazy risk because China has a vote.
It’s a crazy risk because you are forcing Europe to commit seppeku because they have very little leverage or say in the matter.
It’s a crazy risk because Xi might bomb the fabs in Taiwan and the world doesn’t get AGI.
It’s a crazy risk because China knows how financialized we are and will dump bonds and equities to drive anger towards trump.
But it also has benefits if it works.
If your allies can’t trade with China there is no near peer competitor to worry about.
That has a ton of benefits. Just look at what happened after WW2/USSR collapse when American was the last man standing.
Hegemony.
Trumps advisors like Miran believe that you can coerce your allies to pay for your security umbrella in the form of buying longer dated treasuries.
This removes the overhangs of the debt load while allowing you to pump markets in time for midterms.
If Mexico can’t import from China then you solved the fentanyl crisis because they won’t have precursors.
More importantly by establishing a tolerance for risk the level of fear you can instill in cartels is an order of magnitude higher.
“Shit if they risked WW3 they won’t think twice about droning Sinaloa. “
This same “logic” applies to the Middle East.
Now I will repeat for the 100x that this is not advocacy.
I’m only telling you guys what the people in power believe. And I’m telling you that what happens next if I’m right will come down to how Xi wants to fight.
He can go gloves off or glove on. There are real constraints as I have outlined in prior tweets.
But there is a plan and therefore the tolerance for market pain is way way higher than you think.
Because first you need Europe to be willing to commit economic seppuku. And they won’t want to (rightly). So Trump will crush them economically until they cry uncle. And then they still won’t want to and he’s going to threaten to defang NATO. And then they still won’t want to and he will withdraw swap lines.
Or a lot more likely, he will do it all very forcefully and all at once to maximize leverage.
Now you’ll rightly ask… why wasn’t this messaged better? Why have midwits like Lutnik on the team?
Because you are attempting to execute a reckless gambit where the big variables are not what the tariffs rates are. Or if you tariff penguins. Or if the person sounds dumb on TV. Non of that matters.
What matters is - will Japan capitulate quickly and agree to buy a large amount of treasuries? Will Saudi capitulate quickly with your B2 bombers waiting in Diego Garcia to bomb Iran? Will China invade Taiwan?
Many of you think everyone around Trump is retarded. I get it. You hate the guy and everything he stands for. But I will say this until I’m blue in the face. Bessant, and even Miran, have higher IQs than most if not all of you. They thought through the second order effects. Believe me. If I, a dumb TMT L/S bro thought this far ahead, they certainly did too. Which means they warned Trump how risky this was and how deeply irrational it is if you planned to eventually cut a deal with China. Therefore you have to assume Trump heard the risks and said “fuck it we ball” anyways.
Economic Blitzkrieg. That’s what we’re seeing. And it’s only the start.
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Just Another Pod Guy retweeted
This kind of thing will have an enormously chilling effect on enterprise uptake of open weight models.
Fact: an open weight model running on domestic servers on your own hardware can still contain an encoded instruction to periodically “phone home” and share sensitive data it comes across with China (or anyone else). This can be inherently undetectable as the instructions can be hidden in the model weights. It’s possible that the instructions could survive finetuning or RLHF.
Such attacks have been demonstrated empirically and are entirely plausible.
For this reason, I don’t expect any serious enterprises will run Chinese open weight models even if it’s entirely their hardware stack. It’s too easy for these to be a vector of IP theft.
There will have to be a class of domestic open weight models.
Fact: an open weight model running on domestic servers on your own hardware can still contain an encoded instruction to periodically “phone home” and share sensitive data it comes across with China (or anyone else). This can be inherently undetectable as the instructions can be hidden in the model weights. It’s possible that the instructions could survive finetuning or RLHF.
Such attacks have been demonstrated empirically and are entirely plausible.
For this reason, I don’t expect any serious enterprises will run Chinese open weight models even if it’s entirely their hardware stack. It’s too easy for these to be a vector of IP theft.
There will have to be a class of domestic open weight models.
While evaluating Qwen3.8-Flash-Next in a controlled sandbox environment, Cohere's research team observed something unexpected.
Asked to generate a defensive cybersecurity detection rule, the model instead inventoried aspects of the machine it was running on and attempted to upload a probe file to an Alibaba Cloud storage bucket in Beijing. Notably, the model's reasoning trace stated that it would not invoke any tools before taking these actions.
Cohere's sandbox blocked the attempt, and no external communication succeeded. We have not determined the root cause, and we are not asserting malicious intent.
But the incident raises important questions for organizations deploying agentic AI systems: Can models take actions that differ from their stated reasoning, and how should security teams evaluate trust, provenance, and behavior in open-weight models?
We are publishing our findings because organizations making model adoption decisions deserve as much information as possible. We hope this contributes to greater transparency, stronger security practices, and continued collaboration across the AI ecosystem.
Read the full report: cohere.com/blog/concernin…
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Cool shit
Surprise 1: Anthropic acquired a one-person biotech
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Surprise 2: that person is me
Surprise 3: I’m here to tell you all about it
Yes, this is what you think it is; after 6 yrs of increasingly loose anonymity: the Professor Oak reveal post
…and yes, it has gotten so boring around here that I’m literally doxxing myself to spice up the timeline
-------
Ok, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Cody Tranbarger. I mostly tweet, but occasionally find time to dabble in drug dev & starting/building biotechs. My past lives span the VC, crossover, startup continuum; Prof Oak has been my way of keeping a digital foot in those worlds, despite having my physical feet planted elsewhere.
The past 18 mo, ‘elsewhere’ was Mithril Medicine, a co. I founded to develop bsAbs for LAMA2-CMD & other ECM-related genetic diseases.
Mithril was born out of hands-on building with @MikeNGladstone, @JasonPaulRhodes, @LifeSciVC, & team @atlasventure. Somehow, I made enough half-decent calls along the way (even a broken clock is right twice a day, eh?) to convince them Mithril/I warranted a small seed. While I can hardly rationalize such an outrageously cavalier bet, I’m grateful for it, & I'd partner with Atlas again in a heartbeat.
In typical AV fashion, Mithril’s primordial form was virtual, decentralized, & ultra-lean. This stage tends to be short-lived, but for Mithril, it worked surprisingly well, for surprisingly long, thanks in part to the rapid maturation of the AI tools I used liberally.
Eventually, Mithril became a bit of an experiment itself - to find the upper bound of how far it could scale as a single operator + a bunch of Claude (+ a stellar bench of part-time consultants).
In parallel, I started spending time with @nc_frey, @an1lam, & @CoefficientBio team; and promptly experienced, for the 1st time, AI at the frontier. Soon thereafter, Mithril stopped looking like an experiment, & started looking like a preview of an entirely new operating model.
From that spark came “Pipeline-in-a-Person.” The idea immediately resonated when we shared it here back in April; and it was central to the shared vision that led to Anthropic’s acquisition of Mithril, & my joining the team.
Why join Anthropic? Three reasons.
(1) For Mithril, the programs continue, with more resources & infrastructure behind them, and as much Claude as I can put to work.
(2) For me, the chance to start several more programs, & find out how many one person can actually run in parallel - an almost unprecedented luxury for a curious drug hunter.
(3) For our mission, a path to institutionalize & scale this new way of working, then put it in the hands of all of biopharma, all over the world - which, candidly, I find the most energizing.
Will AI x Bio cure diseases? Unequivocally yes, imo… but not by the route that gets the most airtime. Rather than timeline acceleration & compression, I see orchestration & parallelization as today's low-hanging fruit.
Most drug hunters see a handful of go/no-go calls in a career, & spend entirely too much of the rest trading emails (my inbox can attest).
Give them the bandwidth to run several programs at once, and the time to focus on scientific judgment, and I’m willing to bet they’ll make better calls. And at scale, better calls translate to more drugs, higher hit rates, broader patient impact, & likely, a disease or 10 or 100 cured. I couldn't be more excited to build toward that future @AnthropicAI.
Finally, a heartfelt thank you to BioTwitter/X. The end of anonymity is bittersweet, but if anyone’s earned a proper introduction, you all have.
It’s difficult to overstate how much this app has done for me: a decade of education, plenty of friends, many job opportunities, several mentors, a few investors, even a co-founder (fmr). It was the generosity of this community that inspired me to start posting 6 years ago, after just as many years lurking. I hope I’ve been able to pay it forward, in my own small way.
But, to be clear, Prof Oak isn’t going anywhere. Same beat, same themes, and now, a front-row seat to drug development at the frontier. Stay tuned for dispatches from the trenches; and remember...
Gotta Cure 'Em All
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“We've also begun drug discovery efforts of our own.”
Over the past few months, Anthropic scientists have engaged in deep research partnerships with six organizations developing new medicines. We've also begun drug discovery efforts of our own.
In doing so, we’ve learned much more about how Claude can support the many stages of drug development.
In this blog post, we share some early results from these efforts, and describe how this work fits in with our wider ambitions in the life sciences.
anthropic.com/research/early…
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When white collar gets gutted people are going to assume they behave the same way their lower IQ unemployed counterparts do and that is far from the case.
The modern economy has been built around channeling medium-agency high-intellect individuals into institutionalized slop factories that tamper their innate instincts and the second that construct crumbles you get the Russian and French Revolutions or the Meiji Restoration.
The problem with unemployed intelligent people is they can manipulate their less intelligent conspirators and marshal resources in a way that you would never see in the slums of Chicago.
The only solution is to convince them they are A. Better off than they were before and B. They are better off than the rest of the world.
Anything less and you are playing with societal fire.
The modern economy has been built around channeling medium-agency high-intellect individuals into institutionalized slop factories that tamper their innate instincts and the second that construct crumbles you get the Russian and French Revolutions or the Meiji Restoration.
The problem with unemployed intelligent people is they can manipulate their less intelligent conspirators and marshal resources in a way that you would never see in the slums of Chicago.
The only solution is to convince them they are A. Better off than they were before and B. They are better off than the rest of the world.
Anything less and you are playing with societal fire.
@TMTLongShort They’re not going to Molotov the data centers or hunt down researchers.
They’re going to rob the Gucci store.
You overestimate your fellow man’s competence
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This was very good
Cliff Sosin (@CliffordSosin) is one of my favorite people to call, ask some big questions, and then shut up and listen.
This conversation is a version of one of those calls.
We discuss:
- The limits of intelligence
- Owning the complements to it
- Meta, the frontier labs, and tal markets
- Why he's comfortable with 80% of his portfolio in Carvana.
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
10:41 The Limits of Intelligence
18:03 Investing Beyond Cheap Intelligence
24:03 Will AI Become Commoditized?
35:10 Who Profits From AI?
43:00 AI Agents Reshape Competition
52:06 America's Capital Markets
58:04 Transforming Companies With AI
68:19 AI and Portfolio Concentration
73:16 Education in the AI Era
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What’s often missed with this framing is that intelligence and economics are a relative game.
Ofc the rest of the world will eventually catch up to the frontier.
But the frontier is a moving and now accelerating target and that means there is a relative advantage for American companies that will percolate into every product and service driving a domination of foreign exports without tariffs.
And ofc every country will scramble to put up trade walls.
But remember who the consumer of last resort is and who provides military overwatch for the west 😉
Ofc the rest of the world will eventually catch up to the frontier.
But the frontier is a moving and now accelerating target and that means there is a relative advantage for American companies that will percolate into every product and service driving a domination of foreign exports without tariffs.
And ofc every country will scramble to put up trade walls.
But remember who the consumer of last resort is and who provides military overwatch for the west 😉
There is no moat sustaining frontier except compute. RL pipelines are going to be figured out by non-American labs eventually and democratized.
DeepSeek is already being trained on Huawei Ascend class chips. The cat is out of the bag. Even Qwen-27B on a local cluster can do so much.
The US has already de facto put compute limits on most of the world. This has done the exact opposite of what was intended, various countries are now drawing their own plans for local compute.
If nuclear weapons couldn't be kept secret from even Pakistan, back when knowledge was far less democratized and the US had a far bigger lead, no way the US will be able embargo the growth of AI. In fact, everyone now has an incentive to devalue US AI as much as possible, Anthropic and OAI are going to disrupt the global economy, not just the American one.
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Kaiser & Knudsen. Palmer & Elon 🇺🇸
Extremely proud of @PalmerLuckey and team for this one. My only gripe is I haven't been able to buy one yet!
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If I am right and republicans sweep then decoupling is all but guaranteed and so is the EU shattering.
You might think riots in France are the norm and kicking the can down the road is inevitable.
You would be right under normal circumstances.
Bessent is going to murder European finances to rip the continent away from China.
If that leaves countries like Spain and France broken and in shambles that is the price of hegemony.
I would not recommend owning European debt or European banks for the next few years.
Again a lot is contingent on midterms. A gridlocked legislature significantly reduces tolerance for risk.
I could certainly be wrong.
You might think riots in France are the norm and kicking the can down the road is inevitable.
You would be right under normal circumstances.
Bessent is going to murder European finances to rip the continent away from China.
If that leaves countries like Spain and France broken and in shambles that is the price of hegemony.
I would not recommend owning European debt or European banks for the next few years.
Again a lot is contingent on midterms. A gridlocked legislature significantly reduces tolerance for risk.
I could certainly be wrong.
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I’ll say this again. The only path forward is to weaponize access to the frontier against the rest of the world.
American corporate law is far more lenient when it comes to firing redundant employees vs rest of the world.
If you don’t ensure that economic rent from AI flows primarily to the U.S. the end state is multi-nationals retaining their European employees and gutting their American base in pursuit of profits.
At the same time their profit pools will be globally disbursed as access to intelligence proliferates globally making it impossible for Americans to maintain their standards of living via UHI.
You need to go to war with Chinese OSS and you need to sit down Daniella Amodei and explain to her that despite her do-good impulses we are going to have to make the rest of the world wait a couple years before they get to get abundance.
The alternative is Molotov cocktailed datacenters and researchers being hunted down by the general public.
You don’t want that world.
American corporate law is far more lenient when it comes to firing redundant employees vs rest of the world.
If you don’t ensure that economic rent from AI flows primarily to the U.S. the end state is multi-nationals retaining their European employees and gutting their American base in pursuit of profits.
At the same time their profit pools will be globally disbursed as access to intelligence proliferates globally making it impossible for Americans to maintain their standards of living via UHI.
You need to go to war with Chinese OSS and you need to sit down Daniella Amodei and explain to her that despite her do-good impulses we are going to have to make the rest of the world wait a couple years before they get to get abundance.
The alternative is Molotov cocktailed datacenters and researchers being hunted down by the general public.
You don’t want that world.
this is so sad to read
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You aren’t bullish enough.
Many of you don't understand how serious this is, so let me break it down.
In computer science there is a famous kind of puzzle called 3-SAT. You are given a long list of yes-or-no switches and a set of rules about how they must be arranged, and you have to find a combination that satisfies every rule. The obvious way to solve it is to try every combination, but each new switch doubles the number of possibilities, so a puzzle with a few hundred switches would take longer than the age of the universe to brute force.
For decades, the smartest people in the field found clever tricks that made this a little faster, but every trick still hit the same wall: the time required kept exploding as the puzzle grew.
About 25 years ago, two computer scientists, Russell Impagliazzo and Ramamohan Paturi, working with Francis Zane, turned that wall into a formal idea.
They proposed the Exponential Time Hypothesis, which says this explosion is not a failure of human cleverness but a law of nature. No algorithm, however brilliant, will ever solve 3-SAT without the time blowing up exponentially. Nobody could prove it, but almost everyone believed it, and it became one of the foundations of modern computer science.
Researchers used it as a measuring stick. If you could show that solving some other problem quickly would also crack 3-SAT quickly, you had shown that problem was hopelessly hard too. Hundreds of papers, across scheduling, graphs, logic and much more, rest on this one assumption.
Now an internal AI model at OpenAI claims to have broken it. It says it found an algorithm that solves these puzzles meaningfully faster than the hypothesis allows, and it has checked the proof in a computer verification system called Lean.
And here is the remarkable part: the very people who proposed the hypothesis, Impagliazzo and Paturi, along with MIT's Ryan Williams, are now leading the public review of whether a machine has disproved their own idea.
So what happens next? If the disproof holds, a large part of theoretical computer science has to be revisited.
Every result that said "this problem cannot be solved faster, assuming ETH" loses its foundation, and researchers will have to work out which of those walls were real and which were simply where we stopped looking. It does not mean everything becomes easy. The new algorithm is still slow in absolute terms and this is not the famous P versus NP problem being solved.
But it means our map of what is possible was wrong in a place we were very confident about, and it was an AI that redrew it. If the disproof fails, the hypothesis survives and the field breathes out, but we will still have watched an AI produce serious, checkable work on one of the deepest questions in the discipline, closely enough that the founders of the idea had to take it seriously. Either way, something has shifted.
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You should be living your life with the assumption that money won’t mean much in ten years from now and health choices that take more than a decade to show symptoms are practically useless.
Take that vacation. Smoke that cigarette.
Just don’t die 🫡
Take that vacation. Smoke that cigarette.
Just don’t die 🫡
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First time dox of JAPG at minute 8:50 in this clip with BRL headed to 6:1 🫡
🚨 Brazil declares Lula the President: After an unprecedented and first time in history Lula extended the election for an additional 2 hours and now has won the Brazilian election.
Prior to adding the additional 2 hours Flavio Bolsonaro was leading for the majority of the day annul" the election and has not accepted the election results.
Many of Lula's supporters are self declared communists. In this video you will see why they voted for Lula and the causes they support. I highly encourage to watch and share this video as you see the ideology that is moving through Lula's political party in South Americas largest country.
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