On Badenoch's Reform alliance problem.
New post:
The Tory conference represented a clear change in strategy.
But so far the shift has been largely superficial and rhetorical.
There are three big problems with making the strategy work - and it is not at all clear they're resolvable.
samf.substack.com/p/the-three-bi…
Oct 9, 2026 · 12:26 PM UTC
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@Samfr I think this is the reason she won’t be leader by the time of the next election.
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@Samfr This question is difficult for every party - the Tories will run with ‘vote LibDem, get more tax-raising Labour’. But the answer, during the campaign, is ‘we’re fighting to win, not planning for coalitions’, and that’s it.
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@Samfr right that the ‘coalition’ question will dominate the campaign.
But the constituency arithmetic suggests it will be too late to wait until after polling day.
On the UK Elections projections of 9 September, the two main parties of the right poll about 43 per cent between them and win around 200 seats.
Stand down the weaker in each seat, pass on four in ten of its voters (as a worst case scenario) and that becomes 339 - a small majority.
A deal struck the morning after can only add up MPs already elected.
I don’t care about Kemi, Nigel, if Rupert; in fact I have had enough of the cult of personality shouting about the next person who will save us all from decline.
If the three of them care about 🇬🇧 they’ll get over themselves when the time comes and have one right leaning candidate per constituency.
If not, blame for what follows will be theirs.
But the constituency arithmetic suggests it will be too late to wait until after polling day.
On the UK Elections projections of 9 September, the two main parties of the right poll about 43 per cent between them and win around 200 seats.
Stand down the weaker in each seat, pass on four in ten of its voters (as a worst case scenario) and that becomes 339 - a small majority.
A deal struck the morning after can only add up MPs already elected.
I don’t care about Kemi, Nigel, if Rupert; in fact I have had enough of the cult of personality shouting about the next person who will save us all from decline.
If the three of them care about 🇬🇧 they’ll get over themselves when the time comes and have one right leaning candidate per constituency.
If not, blame for what follows will be theirs.
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@Samfr Unless the Tories and Reform chalk up roughly the same number of seats at the next election (which is unlikely), Badenoch or Farage would have to accept a subservient role in a cabinet led by the other. And I can't see either of them having the humility to do that.
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