Ryan Maue retweeted
Hurricane Patricia Reanalysis — Was the Historic Peak Even Stronger?
This continues the Category 5 series (Eastern Pacific in this case) with a very thorough analysis of all available data to determine the best single intensity estimate.
Official NHC (TCR) — 23 October 2015
Pressure: 872 mb
Location: Eastern Pacific (southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico)
WxProbe Reanalysis:
MSW: 190 kt
MSLP: 872 mb
Reconnaissance
Patricia’s absolute peak intensity occurred during an 11-hour reconnaissance gap. During that interval, the satellite presentation (ADT CI) continued to improve through 1200Z. Here’s the pertinent data:
0446Z AF303: 894 mb raw (center sonde 25 kt → adjusted to 891 mb), max flight-level wind of 179 kt at 4 n mi.
0646Z AF303: 885 mb raw (center sonde treated as 57 kt in TCR → adjusted 879 mb), max flight-level wind of 192 kt at 3 n mi (including 1-second spike of 201 kt). Real-time SFMR of 182 kt; post-processed SFMR peaks to 187 kt (Henning et al. 2016; Klotz reanalysis). RMW contracted to 3 n mi.
The aircraft departed while the storm was still deepening. These are the respective observations when recon next sampled the core:
1733Z NOAA3: max flight-level wind was still 192 kt at 8 n mi (VDM; secondary summaries list 191 kt), operational SFMR 166 kt revised to 180 kt after HRD brightness-temperature reprocessing, pressure already higher (VDM at 883 mb with 45 kt → adjusted to 878 mb). Early ERC signatures present.
2044Z: 910 mb with 68 kt → adjusted to 903 mb; flight-level wind of 160 kt. Rapid filling well underway.
The observed rates while aircraft were present taking into consideration the estimated lowest pressure of 872 mb at 1200Z:
* 0446Z–0646Z (2 h): pressure −6 mb/hr, flight-level wind +6.5 kt/hr, RMW 4 to 3 n mi.
* 1200Z–1733Z (5.55 h): pressure +1.1 mb/hr (872 → 878 mb).
* 1733Z–2044Z (3.2 h): 8 mb/hr filling rate once ERC matured.
Pressure
Adjusted pressure at the 192 kt pass was 879 mb. The satellite organization continued to improve until 1200Z. A moderated continuation of the pre-gap −6 mb/hr rate (1.3 mb/hr, which is 22% of the observed rate) across the 5.2 hour gap produces 872 mb at 1200Z. This connects directly to the next observation: 872 mb → 878 mb at 1733Z = +1.1 mb/hr, matching the precisely calculated slow initial filling rate. Anything deeper than 872 mb is possible, but not assured.
Structure
As shown above, the RMW contracted to an astoundingly small 3 n mi at the 192 kt maximum (pinhole). In addition,
mean of the nonzero R34 was compact at 110 n mi, with hurricane-force winds only to 15–16 n mi from the center.
Single wall at peak. No size veto required.
Reduction Factor
A radius of maximum wind of ≤ 5 n mi and pressure below 900 mb support the 0.95 bin (Powell et al. 2009; Patricia SFMR-to-flight-level ratios of 0.95). Patricia’s values were obviously well-below those thresholds.
Flight-level interpolation (single undersample step):
Pre-gap rate was +6.5 kt/hr. A continuation of *only* +1.2 kt/hr (18% of the observed rate) for 5.2 hours = +6 kt. This translates as
192 kt → 198 kt at 1200Z.
Return leg: 198 kt → 192 kt at 1733Z = −1.1 k/hr, consistent with the +1.1 mb/h slow filling while the flight-level wind remained at 192 kt.
These equate to 198 kt × 0.95 = 188 kt → 190 kt, constrained by the measured SFMR values already in the 180–187 kt range. The undersample step is counted once via the interpolation, and 198 kt is the conservative end of that single step. I’ll add that the 192 kt /187 kt pair (ratio of 0.97) and other observed SFMR-to-flight-level ratios near 0.94–0.95 indicate that a higher combination — 202 kt flight-level with a 0.96 factor — would yield 195 kt. This remains a possible high-end, but is not assured. Without direct sampling in the peak window, it isn’t an advisable choice under the methodology, which caps the factor at 0.95 and publishes the conservative single-step result.
Pressure Check
KCZ on 872 mb and the compact R34 is consistent with the upper end of the observed range.
Final Estimate:
MSW: 190 kt (220 mph)
MSLP: 872 mb
RMW: 3 n mi
Time: 1200 UTC 23 October 2015
That is a 5 kt revision of the official wind, while pressure remains unchanged. This further solidifies Patricia’s place as containing the most extreme intensity ever reliably measured in a tropical cyclone, worldwide.
Framework Notes
The flight-level-to-surface factor is selected by the radius of the sampled wind maximum, with pressure and outer size able to veto that first guess. In the most compact cores (RMW ≤ 5 n mi and pressure under 900 mb), the factor can reach 0.95. This ceiling is supported by Powell et al. (2009) and by the Patricia 2015 observations themselves (Rogers et al. 2017; Henning et al. 2016; NHC TCR), where SFMR-to-flight-level ratios reached 0.95. The operational mean remains at 0.90 (Franklin et al. 2003). A small RMW does not justify the highest factors if the mean of the nonzero R34 quadrants is on the order of 140 n mi, or an outer eyewall is active. An undersample of peak intensity is counted once only. Knaff–Zehr–Courtney (KZC) is used as a consistency check. The hour is assigned to the locked apex pair.
Sources: NHC TCR (Kimberlain et al. 2016); Henning et al. (2016) AMS preprint; Rogers et al. (2017) BAMS; HRD SFMR reprocessing (Klotz); vortex data messages 0446Z, 0646Z, 1733Z, 2033Z.
This continues the Category 5 series (Eastern Pacific in this case) with a very thorough analysis of all available data to determine the best single intensity estimate.
Official NHC (TCR) — 23 October 2015
Pressure: 872 mb
Location: Eastern Pacific (southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico)
WxProbe Reanalysis:
MSW: 190 kt
MSLP: 872 mb
Reconnaissance
Patricia’s absolute peak intensity occurred during an 11-hour reconnaissance gap. During that interval, the satellite presentation (ADT CI) continued to improve through 1200Z. Here’s the pertinent data:
0446Z AF303: 894 mb raw (center sonde 25 kt → adjusted to 891 mb), max flight-level wind of 179 kt at 4 n mi.
0646Z AF303: 885 mb raw (center sonde treated as 57 kt in TCR → adjusted 879 mb), max flight-level wind of 192 kt at 3 n mi (including 1-second spike of 201 kt). Real-time SFMR of 182 kt; post-processed SFMR peaks to 187 kt (Henning et al. 2016; Klotz reanalysis). RMW contracted to 3 n mi.
The aircraft departed while the storm was still deepening. These are the respective observations when recon next sampled the core:
1733Z NOAA3: max flight-level wind was still 192 kt at 8 n mi (VDM; secondary summaries list 191 kt), operational SFMR 166 kt revised to 180 kt after HRD brightness-temperature reprocessing, pressure already higher (VDM at 883 mb with 45 kt → adjusted to 878 mb). Early ERC signatures present.
2044Z: 910 mb with 68 kt → adjusted to 903 mb; flight-level wind of 160 kt. Rapid filling well underway.
The observed rates while aircraft were present taking into consideration the estimated lowest pressure of 872 mb at 1200Z:
* 0446Z–0646Z (2 h): pressure −6 mb/hr, flight-level wind +6.5 kt/hr, RMW 4 to 3 n mi.
* 1200Z–1733Z (5.55 h): pressure +1.1 mb/hr (872 → 878 mb).
* 1733Z–2044Z (3.2 h): 8 mb/hr filling rate once ERC matured.
Pressure
Adjusted pressure at the 192 kt pass was 879 mb. The satellite organization continued to improve until 1200Z. A moderated continuation of the pre-gap −6 mb/hr rate (1.3 mb/hr, which is 22% of the observed rate) across the 5.2 hour gap produces 872 mb at 1200Z. This connects directly to the next observation: 872 mb → 878 mb at 1733Z = +1.1 mb/hr, matching the precisely calculated slow initial filling rate. Anything deeper than 872 mb is possible, but not assured.
Structure
As shown above, the RMW contracted to an astoundingly small 3 n mi at the 192 kt maximum (pinhole). In addition,
mean of the nonzero R34 was compact at 110 n mi, with hurricane-force winds only to 15–16 n mi from the center.
Single wall at peak. No size veto required.
Reduction Factor
A radius of maximum wind of ≤ 5 n mi and pressure below 900 mb support the 0.95 bin (Powell et al. 2009; Patricia SFMR-to-flight-level ratios of 0.95). Patricia’s values were obviously well-below those thresholds.
Flight-level interpolation (single undersample step):
Pre-gap rate was +6.5 kt/hr. A continuation of *only* +1.2 kt/hr (18% of the observed rate) for 5.2 hours = +6 kt. This translates as
192 kt → 198 kt at 1200Z.
Return leg: 198 kt → 192 kt at 1733Z = −1.1 k/hr, consistent with the +1.1 mb/h slow filling while the flight-level wind remained at 192 kt.
These equate to 198 kt × 0.95 = 188 kt → 190 kt, constrained by the measured SFMR values already in the 180–187 kt range. The undersample step is counted once via the interpolation, and 198 kt is the conservative end of that single step. I’ll add that the 192 kt /187 kt pair (ratio of 0.97) and other observed SFMR-to-flight-level ratios near 0.94–0.95 indicate that a higher combination — 202 kt flight-level with a 0.96 factor — would yield 195 kt. This remains a possible high-end, but is not assured. Without direct sampling in the peak window, it isn’t an advisable choice under the methodology, which caps the factor at 0.95 and publishes the conservative single-step result.
Pressure Check
KCZ on 872 mb and the compact R34 is consistent with the upper end of the observed range.
Final Estimate:
MSW: 190 kt (220 mph)
MSLP: 872 mb
RMW: 3 n mi
Time: 1200 UTC 23 October 2015
That is a 5 kt revision of the official wind, while pressure remains unchanged. This further solidifies Patricia’s place as containing the most extreme intensity ever reliably measured in a tropical cyclone, worldwide.
Framework Notes
The flight-level-to-surface factor is selected by the radius of the sampled wind maximum, with pressure and outer size able to veto that first guess. In the most compact cores (RMW ≤ 5 n mi and pressure under 900 mb), the factor can reach 0.95. This ceiling is supported by Powell et al. (2009) and by the Patricia 2015 observations themselves (Rogers et al. 2017; Henning et al. 2016; NHC TCR), where SFMR-to-flight-level ratios reached 0.95. The operational mean remains at 0.90 (Franklin et al. 2003). A small RMW does not justify the highest factors if the mean of the nonzero R34 quadrants is on the order of 140 n mi, or an outer eyewall is active. An undersample of peak intensity is counted once only. Knaff–Zehr–Courtney (KZC) is used as a consistency check. The hour is assigned to the locked apex pair.
Sources: NHC TCR (Kimberlain et al. 2016); Henning et al. (2016) AMS preprint; Rogers et al. (2017) BAMS; HRD SFMR reprocessing (Klotz); vortex data messages 0446Z, 0646Z, 1733Z, 2033Z.
11 Years Ago: Revisiting Hurricane Patricia’s Historic Peak
Yesterday morning marked 11 years since Hurricane Patricia reached its historic peak — the most extreme intensity ever reliably measured in a tropical cyclone, worldwide.
Consequently, I have prioritized a very all available data to determine the best single intensity estimate, consistent with the ongoing Category 5 series. The post will examine the observed rates, structural details, and what likely occurred during the reconnaissance gap when #Patricia reached its apex.
I hope to have the reanalysis completed and released later this evening.
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Cloud free day across Oregon and California.
Note, some snowfall visible on some Sierra peaks! ❄️
Note, some snowfall visible on some Sierra peaks! ❄️
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Typhoons and mountains do not mix.
Watch as Champi is devoured by northern Taiwan
The eye is obliterated and the storm torn apart.
Watch as Champi is devoured by northern Taiwan
The eye is obliterated and the storm torn apart.
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Curtains for Champi.
The Typhoon was wrecked by Taiwan.
Not much left. The mountainous terrain disrupted the inner-core circulation and broke the "heat engine"
The Typhoon was wrecked by Taiwan.
Not much left. The mountainous terrain disrupted the inner-core circulation and broke the "heat engine"
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A tropical disturbance has formed in the Bay of Bengal (Invest 98B)
Weather models show an intense cyclone of Category 4 intensity (115 knots) making landfall somewhere along Indian coast.
This will be a dangerous storm ⚠️
Weather models show an intense cyclone of Category 4 intensity (115 knots) making landfall somewhere along Indian coast.
This will be a dangerous storm ⚠️
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Vance the hurricane is nearly at major intensity.
However, there's a cold pool of water along the path, so Vance has 48 hours to peak, and then it's downhill from there w/potential of significant weakening.
Eye still ragged. 90 knots winds
However, there's a cold pool of water along the path, so Vance has 48 hours to peak, and then it's downhill from there w/potential of significant weakening.
Eye still ragged. 90 knots winds
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UPDATE: climate risk company First Street (recently acquired) is being sued by Nebraska for misleading "climate scores" put on real estate market pages.
A reckoning for the "climate intel" space🍿
A reckoning for the "climate intel" space🍿
We filed a lawsuit against climate risk company First Street for inaccurate and misleading property-specific loss predictions that have depressed Nebraska’s real estate market and made it difficult for Nebraskan homeowners to sell their homes.
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Update: Friday October 23, 2026
First Street being sued by Florida A.G.
First Street being sued by Florida A.G.
First Street’s climate risk scores on Zillow, Redfin & Realtor.com are presented as accurate and scientific. They’re not.
We are taking them to court because Florida homeowners deserve facts, not alarmist scores that hit their property values and their wallets.
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Redfin deserves scrutiny for its business relationship, which apparently remains intact.
This video was not a compelling defense.
Zillow removed the faulty scores in December 2025 after taking incoming fire from all directions.
This video was not a compelling defense.
Zillow removed the faulty scores in December 2025 after taking incoming fire from all directions.
Redfin is apparently "guaranteeing" the accuracy of "black box" climate models by maintaining third party "climate scores" on their property listing website.
"Knowledge is power" won't hold up in court when asked for evidence of "due diligence" on score accuracy.
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Storm Austen tracked through the English Channel and is now in the Netherlands causing havoc.
Wind gusts over open water still nearly hurricane force.
Wind gusts over open water still nearly hurricane force.
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Do the "heat attribution" studies take into account the humidity in Europe?
Here in United States "Deep South" we use air conditioning to both cool and dehumidify our homes.
Electricity is cheap in Georgia, our homes are typically kept around 72°F in summer & winter.
Here in United States "Deep South" we use air conditioning to both cool and dehumidify our homes.
Electricity is cheap in Georgia, our homes are typically kept around 72°F in summer & winter.
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Attribution science is so morbid.
The researchers could calculate the number of deaths likely caused by lack of air conditioning due to maladaptation caused by climate/energy policy.
Instead, they set up counterfactual experiments to compare the climate of 1850 with 2026, people in 1850 were better off? Gross.
nytimes.com/2026/10/22/cli…
The researchers could calculate the number of deaths likely caused by lack of air conditioning due to maladaptation caused by climate/energy policy.
Instead, they set up counterfactual experiments to compare the climate of 1850 with 2026, people in 1850 were better off? Gross.
nytimes.com/2026/10/22/cli…
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No one died from "climate change" which is a 2°F rise in global temperature since 1850 during the Little Ice Age.
Everyone died because of lack of cooling and adaptation due to policy trade-offs made by European governments to prioritize long-term mitigation (Net Zero) rather
A "buddy system" to check on elderly melting in their homes is not a serious solution.
npr.org/2026/10/23/g-s…
Everyone died because of lack of cooling and adaptation due to policy trade-offs made by European governments to prioritize long-term mitigation (Net Zero) rather
A "buddy system" to check on elderly melting in their homes is not a serious solution.
npr.org/2026/10/23/g-s…
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Ryan Maue retweeted
If you believe the models, we should finish off October without any additional tropical threats or development contenders. But what about November? In today's newsletter, I dive into just how common tropical threats are in the season's final month. ⬇️
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/how-common-a…
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/how-common-a…
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Most Americans don't appreciate the power of the "bomb cyclones" that slam into the British Isles and France. Barometric pressure collapsed.
Storm Austen is the equivalent to a hurricane rolling through the English Channel -- damaging winds and power outages.
Storm Austen is the equivalent to a hurricane rolling through the English Channel -- damaging winds and power outages.
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Does your barometer even go down to 946 mb?
Do you even have a barometer might be a better question?
Why don't you have one?
Do you even have a barometer might be a better question?
Why don't you have one?
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Ryan Maue retweeted
Not only does switching this map's layer from "Current" to "Historical" (weather.gov/wrh/hazards) include Canadian station data - up through this evening, even - but other NWS websites, like the ones below, have and continue to provide observations outside of the US.
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5874 tornado warnings so far in 2026 across the Lower 48 issued by National Weather Service
Arizona adding a few this week -- rare!
weather.city/alerts-archive
Arizona adding a few this week -- rare!
weather.city/alerts-archive
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