If you believe the models, we should finish off October without any additional tropical threats or development contenders. But what about November? In today's newsletter, I dive into just how common tropical threats are in the season's final month. ⬇️
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/how-common-a…
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/how-common-a…
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Missed this from @APStylebook a few weeks ago. Nothing is more grating on my ears than hearing a gender assigned to a storm. The late, great John Hope felt strongly about this too (also that a hurricane is a hurricane and not a "storm").
If you are writing about Hurricanes Nolo or Polo, or Tropical Storm Hanna, call the storm it, not he or she.
AP style uses “it” for nations, ships, storms and voice assistants, except in direct quotations.
apnews.com/climate-and-en…
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@APStylebook Also I've had countless conversations with producers and editors over the years about the second point. Even though Harvey wasn't a hurricane by the time it caused the flooding in Houston, I always defer to the highest label (same for Helene) or name only with no label at all.
Capitalize hurricane when it is part of the name that weather forecasters assign to a storm: Hurricane Erin.
But use it and its – not she, her or hers or he, him or his – in pronoun references.
Storms lose strength and are downgraded to tropical storm or tropical depression status after being widely known as hurricanes. Depending on the context, it may be more clear to use simply the storm’s name on first reference, such as "Officials released more water Monday from Houston-area reservoirs overwhelmed by Harvey.
Give the storm’s current status and history high in the story.
apnews.com/climate-and-en…
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Josephine formed yesterday but will be another Atlantic "shortie" as it quickly morphs into a powerful extratropical storm today into Friday. It'll also do little to pick the season off the mat, which continues to be one of the least active on record. ⬇️
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/josephine-fo…
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/josephine-fo…
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Michael Lowry retweeted
NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Josephine (formerly AL93), located offshore of the U.S. East Coast, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).
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Michael Lowry retweeted
We finally got a (partial) ASCAT pass that hit #93L. This looks like it's probably a subtropical storm, in my opinion. It looks pretty detached from the fronts on the southwest side of the circulation, and has core convection and a fairly small RMW on the NW side. It's a little n the NE side since we didn't get a pass there just yet.
Regardless of the classification, strong NE winds will affect the eastern seaboard.
Regardless of the classification, strong NE winds will affect the eastern seaboard.
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The strengthening nor'easter, also known as Invest 93L, is trying to make a run at a third moniker – Josephine. We're seeing an uptick in storminess near the low pressure today but name and standing aside, the ongoing coastal impacts don't change. ⬇️
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/national-hur…
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/national-hur…
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Glad to offer my thoughts in this NPR Morning Edition report airing today on how AI forecast models are changing hurricane predictions. AI models aren't always the answer key (see Simon last week) but they're advancing predictions at a pace we've not seen.
npr.org/2026/10/19/nx-…
npr.org/2026/10/19/nx-…
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Josephine aside, whether our Mid-Atlantic nor'easter laps up enough Gulf Stream fuel later this week to transition into a subtropical storm is immaterial to the coastal impacts expected from the Outer Banks to Southern New Jersey over the next few days. ⬇️
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/developing-c…
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/developing-c…
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Michael Lowry retweeted
🌀Hurricane Isaias Damage Analysis (1/4)
NWS Mobile continues to investigate an extreme corridor of damaging winds WEST of Isaias' center. This radar/velocity loop shows intense winds, with deeper blues/greens indicating higher wind speeds, possibly associated with a "sting jet"
NWS Mobile continues to investigate an extreme corridor of damaging winds WEST of Isaias' center. This radar/velocity loop shows intense winds, with deeper blues/greens indicating higher wind speeds, possibly associated with a "sting jet"
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By now, it's no secret that AI models like @GoogleDeepMind are revolutionizing hurricane forecasts. But not all AI hurricane models are created equal. In new comprehensive analyses, I discuss where the AI models landed for Isaias and the season so far. ⬇️
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/new-post-isa…
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/new-post-isa…
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The @GoogleDeepMind team should be commended on developing something I'd have to see to believe a few years ago. The progress they've made in AI forecast tools has been revolutionary. On full display during Isaias last week. 👇
Very glad our work on WeatherNext Cyclones (WN-C) at @GoogleDeepMind and @GoogleResearch proved useful for forecasting Hurricane Isaias. We were also pleased to see WN-C’s 1,000 member ensemble being used by meteorologists to help assess the full range of possibilities for nsity. Such large ensembles are one of the benefits of ML weather models, which are more efficient than traditional physics models.
There was debate among meteorologists whether wind shear and dry air would prevent Isaias from rapidly intensifying. WN-C predicted a more easterly path away from these weakening factors, with a >50% chance of a major hurricane from Oct 6th onwards, which steadily grew in confidence until Isaias eventually did reach Category 3 status three days later on Oct 9th, shortly before landfall.
Our paper on the front cover of @Nature last month evaluated WN-C against the leading physics models across more than 200 tropical cyclones globally from 2023-2025. We found that WN-C achieves ~1 day of additional useful lead time for cyclone track and intensity (an advance that typically took a decade to achieve). Getting both track and intensity right proved crucial for predicting the true threat of Isaias, and though this was just N=1 tropical cyclone, it’s great to see our breakthrough helping to protect lives and livelihoods in an operational setting.
Read the paper here: nature.com/articles/s4158…
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Our better performing forecast models are starting to advertise possible tropical or subtropical development along a stalled front off the Carolinas next week. As @NWSMoreheadCity notes, there's "some level of coastal concerns" regardless. More ⬇️
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/keeping-an-e…
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/keeping-an-e…
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The Atlantic basin has seen reduced activity nearly everywhere this hurricane season, except along its edges (including the Gulf). Meanwhile the eastern and central Pacific couldn't look any different, especially around Hawaii. More in today's newletter ⬇️
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/atlantic-bas…
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/atlantic-bas…
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Michael Lowry retweeted
Call me Dr. Doomsday - we're doing some research on historic storm events with outage prediction @PowerOutage_us . If a storm like Great New England 1938 storm hit we estimate almost 9 million customer outages. This would be a bad day. NOT A FORECAST. #hurricane #newengland
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Michael Lowry retweeted
This October marks 22 years since Broward, Miami-Dade, or Palm Beach County last recorded sustained hurricane-force winds from a hurricane during Wilma in October 2005. A remarkable stretch for a region so vulnerable to hurricanes! 🌀 #FLwx
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When does the mainland U.S. usually see its last hurricane landfall? In today's newsletter I look at what the historical record tells us and why the next few weeks are especially meaningful for folks living in the hurricane zone. ⬇️
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/when-do-we-u…
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/when-do-we-u…
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Michael Lowry retweeted
Stunning views from our office of this morning's pre-sunrise launch 🚀
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I've had lot of conversations with other meteorologists I respect who feel strongly (with good arguments!) this wasn't a sting jet. There's a continuum here, though, and I'm not sure you'll ever fully satisfy the classic Browning definition of a sting jet with a transitioning TC.
@AriWeathererimental HAFS forecast the day of landfall picked up on the structure pretty well, just showed it a little further offshore. It's not really a traditional "sting jet" at the base of the "comma head" because there wasn't one yet (hadn't really fully ET'd yet). But if you look, itome really robust subsidence on the backside that likely brought strong winds down to the surface, similar to sting jet. Very interesting case that I want to dig into more.
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@NWSMobile Additionally here's a great post on Isaias from @UWCIMSS which also shows the sharp scorpion-like tail on satellite typically seen with sting jets.
cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog…
cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog…
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