Position sizing is one of the most important parts of trading, and one of the least talked about.
@Jamie1Coutts' simple formula to work out how much to put into a trade 👇
@Jamie1Coutts' simple formula to work out how much to put into a trade 👇
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Week 1 of the Real Vision Trading League is done 🏆
Congrats to Andy B, who wins $5,000 for the top idea of the week. You can see the full trade and his reasoning inside the platform.
Tune in here at 4:30pm ET, when the team breaks down their favourite trade ideas from week 1. ing to play for...
Congrats to Andy B, who wins $5,000 for the top idea of the week. You can see the full trade and his reasoning inside the platform.
Tune in here at 4:30pm ET, when the team breaks down their favourite trade ideas from week 1. ing to play for...
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happy monday visionaries. here's what we're watching this week:
- Wednesday: the Fed decides, then Alphabet and Microsoft report
- Thursday: Q3 GDP, expected at 3.2%, and core PCE, expected at 3.1%, then Amazon reports
A hold on Wednesday is around 90% priced, so it all comes als for December.
Warsh said September's hike "removed a dose of accommodation". CPI has since jumped to 3.7%, and futures price a December hike at better than 80%. Wednesday shows whether he leans into it.
- Wednesday: the Fed decides, then Alphabet and Microsoft report
- Thursday: Q3 GDP, expected at 3.2%, and core PCE, expected at 3.1%, then Amazon reports
A hold on Wednesday is around 90% priced, so it all comes als for December.
Warsh said September's hike "removed a dose of accommodation". CPI has since jumped to 3.7%, and futures price a December hike at better than 80%. Wednesday shows whether he leans into it.
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$60 oil. $160 diesel.
@Rory_Johnston says that combo is "very plausible".
The world has plenty of crude. It's short on refineries to turn it into fuel, and the ones it has are in the wrong places.
@Rory_Johnston says that combo is "very plausible".
The world has plenty of crude. It's short on refineries to turn it into fuel, and the ones it has are in the wrong places.
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How do you keep the dollar the world's reserve currency? Put it in more wallets abroad.
That's the case from @USComptroller Jonathan Gould: payment stablecoins as a way to "reinforce that and export it even further."
That's the case from @USComptroller Jonathan Gould: payment stablecoins as a way to "reinforce that and export it even further."
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Losing money isn't the only way to lose.
Howard Marks on the two risks every investor balances.
Full interview on Real Vision.
Howard Marks on the two risks every investor balances.
Full interview on Real Vision.
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China pulled more oil demand off the seaborne market than every IEA member's SPR release combined.
Rory Johnston of Commodity Context puts it at roughly 5.5 million barrels a day of crude imports. December to February average, down to the June and July bottom.
He calls it "gargantuan."
Rory Johnston of Commodity Context puts it at roughly 5.5 million barrels a day of crude imports. December to February average, down to the June and July bottom.
He calls it "gargantuan."
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ETH/BTC broke out and everyone called alt season. It's been down only since.
Kris Bullock: the pair is still below its 20-week moving average. His fear is a slide back into the downtrend it's been in since 2022.
Kris Bullock: the pair is still below its 20-week moving average. His fear is a slide back into the downtrend it's been in since 2022.
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Max Gokhman of Franklin Templeton on making the AI trade actionable, with AI.
Tell ChatGPT, Claude or Perplexity the theme. Have it map the supply chain, from memory to energy, and pick the main names in each. Then have it build an alert for when one draws down against your ng AI session at the Festival of Trading.
Tell ChatGPT, Claude or Perplexity the theme. Have it map the supply chain, from memory to energy, and pick the main names in each. Then have it build an alert for when one draws down against your ng AI session at the Festival of Trading.
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Wall Street has a name for people who bet against stocks: intellectual cranks.
Jim Chanos's answer is simple. The indices go up over time. Most companies don't. They fail or get merged out of existence.
He thinks short sellers are born, not made. The research is the same but the temperament isn't.
Jim Chanos's answer is simple. The indices go up over time. Most companies don't. They fail or get merged out of existence.
He thinks short sellers are born, not made. The research is the same but the temperament isn't.
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There's no bulletproof setup that tells you when the price is right. @AndreasSteno runs a three-step checklist instead.
Macro first: is the rate of change good or bad?
Then positioning: is the market already in the trade?
Then the technicals.
From his Festival of Trading AMA.
Macro first: is the rate of change good or bad?
Then positioning: is the market already in the trade?
Then the technicals.
From his Festival of Trading AMA.
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A lot of trade setups on X skip the part that decides whether you survive: risk.
@Jamie1Coutts on why your risk tolerance isn't someone else's, and why blindly copying the setup isn't enough.
@Jamie1Coutts on why your risk tolerance isn't someone else's, and why blindly copying the setup isn't enough.
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The OCC was created in 1863 to make sure bank notes were backed.
Now Congress has handed it the same job for stablecoins.
Comptroller Jonathan Gould on the final GENIUS Act rule: if you want to redeem, the assets have to be there.
A stablecoin is only as stable as its ller @AshBennington
Now Congress has handed it the same job for stablecoins.
Comptroller Jonathan Gould on the final GENIUS Act rule: if you want to redeem, the assets have to be there.
A stablecoin is only as stable as its ller @AshBennington
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Last week we hosted two days of free workshops inside Real Vision.
You lot then said some very nice things about it.
WE'RE NOT CRYING OKAY it's just allergies
You lot then said some very nice things about it.
WE'RE NOT CRYING OKAY it's just allergies
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BlackRock isn't going to become a crypto company. It'll take what it needs.
Kris Bullock's read: TradFi will adopt tech like NEAR and Hyperliquid behind the scenes, but the fee capture will still benefit token holders.
@CryptoWithKris
Kris Bullock's read: TradFi will adopt tech like NEAR and Hyperliquid behind the scenes, but the fee capture will still benefit token holders.
@CryptoWithKris
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Bubble this, bubble that... @lspurcell isn't speculating. He's watching the CapEx.
His point: the spend behind the AI boom is measurable. Ask ChatGPT or Claude to pull it and chart the rate of change. The time to worry is when the acceleration starts to slow.
From the Trading val of Trading.
His point: the spend behind the AI boom is measurable. Ask ChatGPT or Claude to pull it and chart the rate of change. The time to worry is when the acceleration starts to slow.
From the Trading val of Trading.
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If your cab driver starts bragging about his gains, worry.
That's one of the lessons the pros dropped at last week's Festival of Trading. Here are the rest:
That's one of the lessons the pros dropped at last week's Festival of Trading. Here are the rest:
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Hunting 10x trades every month is how new traders rack up losses, says @NathanBiyond
After years in markets, the biggest mistake he sees is unrealistic expectations. Patience takes a long time to learn, and the lesson is expensive.
From our Charting the Trades workshop at the Festival of Trading.
After years in markets, the biggest mistake he sees is unrealistic expectations. Patience takes a long time to learn, and the lesson is expensive.
From our Charting the Trades workshop at the Festival of Trading.
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Yesterday, Jonathan Gould's office dropped the final rule to implement the GENIUS Act.
Then he sat down with Real Vision on the floor of the @NYSE
Jonathan Gould x Ash Bennington. Full interview live now.
@USComptroller
Then he sat down with Real Vision on the floor of the @NYSE
Jonathan Gould x Ash Bennington. Full interview live now.
@USComptroller
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The bitcoin rally to fear is the one that goes straight up.
Kris Bullock: a big parabolic run into the middle of next year looks like a blow-off top. A gradual incline is what gives him confidence this could run late into 2029.
@CryptoWithKris on Trading the Markets yesterday.
Kris Bullock: a big parabolic run into the middle of next year looks like a blow-off top. A gradual incline is what gives him confidence this could run late into 2029.
@CryptoWithKris on Trading the Markets yesterday.
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we gotchu 🤝
Your stock research just got a lot shorter.
Type any ticker into Real Vision's Trade Agent and get the trend, macro backdrop, fundamentals, and what to watch in seconds.
Here's $NVDA 👇
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Joining a trend late can be very dangerous. @CalebFranzen's answer: make it a smaller position.
With his 21, 55 and 200-day EMA framework, size gets bigger the deeper price pulls back into the averages.
From our Charting the Trades workshop at the Festival of Trading.
With his 21, 55 and 200-day EMA framework, size gets bigger the deeper price pulls back into the averages.
From our Charting the Trades workshop at the Festival of Trading.
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The best traders Peter Brandt knows don't think of themselves as traders. They think of themselves as risk managers.
Find the chart point that tells you you're wrong. Make sure your sizing isn't wrong too, because that's when you get clipped. Then bleed the risk out of the ith @ForexStopHunter at our Festival of Trading last week.
Find the chart point that tells you you're wrong. Make sure your sizing isn't wrong too, because that's when you get clipped. Then bleed the risk out of the ith @ForexStopHunter at our Festival of Trading last week.
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Your stock research just got a lot shorter.
Type any ticker into Real Vision's Trade Agent and get the trend, macro backdrop, fundamentals, and what to watch in seconds.
Here's $NVDA 👇
Type any ticker into Real Vision's Trade Agent and get the trend, macro backdrop, fundamentals, and what to watch in seconds.
Here's $NVDA 👇
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This year has been a reminder of just how much geopolitics can shape markets, energy prices and global supply chains.
So how do you make sense of the forces shaping the next few decades?
@RosenvoldGeo has put together a free report to help you do exactly that.
Comment FUTURE
So how do you make sense of the forces shaping the next few decades?
@RosenvoldGeo has put together a free report to help you do exactly that.
Comment FUTURE
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Why does official inflation keep running hotter than the live data?
@AndreasSteno points to rent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics updates its sample twice a year. Live data from Apartment List paints a much softer picture.
His read: core inflation momentum is close to peaking, ber.
@AndreasSteno points to rent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics updates its sample twice a year. Live data from Apartment List paints a much softer picture.
His read: core inflation momentum is close to peaking, ber.
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Midweek market Pulse check.
All eyes on earnings today. Tesla, SAP, IBM and United Rentals all report, with SpaceX and United Airlines' numbers already in.
Meanwhile, Anthropic's possible S-1 leak shows $16B in revenue in the first half of 2026, and huge compute commitments to read, straight from The Pulse on Real Vision.
All eyes on earnings today. Tesla, SAP, IBM and United Rentals all report, with SpaceX and United Airlines' numbers already in.
Meanwhile, Anthropic's possible S-1 leak shows $16B in revenue in the first half of 2026, and huge compute commitments to read, straight from The Pulse on Real Vision.
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Two days into our month long trading comp, and the top of the leaderboard is separated by less than two points.
3rd place got there on one idea alone 👀
This whole board is public inside Real Vision. See the ideas behind every name on the leaderboard, catch up on two days of kshops, and play around with our free trade agent until something clicks.
3rd place got there on one idea alone 👀
This whole board is public inside Real Vision. See the ideas behind every name on the leaderboard, catch up on two days of kshops, and play around with our free trade agent until something clicks.
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In 2022, only three protocols returned value to token holders at scale.
Today it’s 25% of the Top 100 Index.
@Jamie1Coutts calls it his capital discipline theory. Since 2022, payouts to holders rose 5.3x through buybacks, burns and higher staking rewards.
Tokens are starting e way an equity does.
Today it’s 25% of the Top 100 Index.
@Jamie1Coutts calls it his capital discipline theory. Since 2022, payouts to holders rose 5.3x through buybacks, burns and higher staking rewards.
Tokens are starting e way an equity does.
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The hottest PPI since 2022 landed Thursday. Bond yields fell anyway.
@AndreasSteno says this is incredibly telling for positioning.
The market is heavily short bonds, long energy, long the dollar, and long the Mag 7 against their suppliers.
If inflation that hot can’t push d is already all-in on that side of the boat.
@AndreasSteno says this is incredibly telling for positioning.
The market is heavily short bonds, long energy, long the dollar, and long the Mag 7 against their suppliers.
If inflation that hot can’t push d is already all-in on that side of the boat.
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“Priced for perfection in a business that lives and dies on retail risk-on sentiment.”
That’s the bear case on Robinhood, built in seconds by Real Vision’s new Trade Agent.
The Trade Agent is free to use for the duration of our trading league which kicked off yesterday: submit deas over 30 days, and compete for up to 100k in prizes.
Have it research any ticker, pressure-test the bull case, and tear down your ideas before the market does.
That’s the bear case on Robinhood, built in seconds by Real Vision’s new Trade Agent.
The Trade Agent is free to use for the duration of our trading league which kicked off yesterday: submit deas over 30 days, and compete for up to 100k in prizes.
Have it research any ticker, pressure-test the bull case, and tear down your ideas before the market does.
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The most meaningful low of the new crypto cycle is already in, says @Jamie1Coutts
But he’s not painting over the macro: the MOVE index back above 100, real rates accelerating, high yield spreads widening, the yield curve flattening... “These are the things that do worry me.”
dy had its reset this year, and the new demand coming in doesn’t switch off because macro gets ugly.
If risk assets pull back it could be a nice chance to add.
But he’s not painting over the macro: the MOVE index back above 100, real rates accelerating, high yield spreads widening, the yield curve flattening... “These are the things that do worry me.”
dy had its reset this year, and the new demand coming in doesn’t switch off because macro gets ugly.
If risk assets pull back it could be a nice chance to add.
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Two days of trading pros giving away their playbooks.
Last week we ran a Trading Festival where we heard from legends in the field. Every workshop is free to rewatch inside Real Vision.
And the timing’s not an accident, because we just opened a 30-day trading competition: trade ideas and compete for up to $100,000 in prizes.
Watch how the pros do it. Then give it your best shot.
Last week we ran a Trading Festival where we heard from legends in the field. Every workshop is free to rewatch inside Real Vision.
And the timing’s not an accident, because we just opened a 30-day trading competition: trade ideas and compete for up to $100,000 in prizes.
Watch how the pros do it. Then give it your best shot.
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Hot inflation print. Yields down, dollar down. What gives?
@AndreasSteno broke it down in one of our Festival of Trading workshops last week. The full set of recordings are free to watch.
Grab a free Real Vision account and dig in.
@AndreasSteno broke it down in one of our Festival of Trading workshops last week. The full set of recordings are free to watch.
Grab a free Real Vision account and dig in.
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Real Vision has a Trade Agent now.
Give it a ticker and it pulls the technicals, the macro backdrop, the catalysts, and what the community’s live trades are doing on the same name.
All you need to use it is a free Real Vision account.
Give it a ticker and it pulls the technicals, the macro backdrop, the catalysts, and what the community’s live trades are doing on the same name.
All you need to use it is a free Real Vision account.
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happy monday visionaries. here’s what we’re watching this week:
Thursday: jobless claims, expected at 200K
Friday: flash PMIs
Light data week, but the Fed meets next Wednesday, and last week handed it a problem. CPI jumped to 3.7% and PPI surged to 6.3%, the hottest wholesale tion is clearly heating back up.
After September’s hike, the question for the 28th isn’t cuts. It’s whether they go again.
Thursday: jobless claims, expected at 200K
Friday: flash PMIs
Light data week, but the Fed meets next Wednesday, and last week handed it a problem. CPI jumped to 3.7% and PPI surged to 6.3%, the hottest wholesale tion is clearly heating back up.
After September’s hike, the question for the 28th isn’t cuts. It’s whether they go again.
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It’s on. Our Trading League is officially open.
Post up to three trade ideas inside Real Vision between now and November 20 and compete for up to $100K in prizes.
All you need to get started is a free account. You don’t need to make any real trades, just post the idea, and it lays out in the market.
And we’re not sending you in blind… Last week we ran two days of live workshops with some of the best in the game, all recorded and ready to watch with your free account.
Plus you get a free Trade Agent to use for the whole League. Type a ticker, let it do the digging, then post the idea that holds up.
Your future. Your move.
Post up to three trade ideas inside Real Vision between now and November 20 and compete for up to $100K in prizes.
All you need to get started is a free account. You don’t need to make any real trades, just post the idea, and it lays out in the market.
And we’re not sending you in blind… Last week we ran two days of live workshops with some of the best in the game, all recorded and ready to watch with your free account.
Plus you get a free Trade Agent to use for the whole League. Type a ticker, let it do the digging, then post the idea that holds up.
Your future. Your move.
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“You go buy a car from GM, they don’t call it circular financing, they call it an auto loan.”
That’s @ramahluwalia of Lumida taking apart one of the most repeated Nvidia bear cases, live at the Festival of Trading’s Trading AI session.
For an hour, he and Franklin Templeton’s ugh the whole complex: whether private credit is the crack in the build-out, if memory at 7x earnings is cheap or a trap, and where the AI trade breaks.
Replays are free with a Real Vision account.
That’s @ramahluwalia of Lumida taking apart one of the most repeated Nvidia bear cases, live at the Festival of Trading’s Trading AI session.
For an hour, he and Franklin Templeton’s ugh the whole complex: whether private credit is the crack in the build-out, if memory at 7x earnings is cheap or a trap, and where the AI trade breaks.
Replays are free with a Real Vision account.
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Nobody doubles their money every year trading. Not Druckenmiller, not Renaissance, not you.
That’s the starting point of Peter Brandt's sit-down with Dale Pinkert during our Festival of Trading. Two traders who’ve been at it since the 1970s on what actually keeps you in the d treating trading as a craft you learn, not a lottery you win.
@PeterLBrandt @forexstophunter
That’s the starting point of Peter Brandt's sit-down with Dale Pinkert during our Festival of Trading. Two traders who’ve been at it since the 1970s on what actually keeps you in the d treating trading as a craft you learn, not a lottery you win.
@PeterLBrandt @forexstophunter
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"Most people are afraid to be wrong." - Howard Marks on why nobody gets out in time.
The market goes up most years, so the only way to look wrong is to be out of it.
But nobody wants to look wrong, so nobody gets out. Until a crisis does it for them, at the bottom.
Marks got ng for a year and a half, and had $11 billion ready when 2008 hit.
The market goes up most years, so the only way to look wrong is to be out of it.
But nobody wants to look wrong, so nobody gets out. Until a crisis does it for them, at the bottom.
Marks got ng for a year and a half, and had $11 billion ready when 2008 hit.
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Sold it down 9% on the day and still walked away with a 200% gain.
@CalebFranzen, inside yesterday’s Charting The Trades Workshop.
This was just one workshop inside the Festival of Trading, two days of live sessions built to sharpen your trading and unf*ck your future.
Missed e available with a free Real Vision account.
All of it builds towards our Trading League, which kicks off Monday.
@CalebFranzen, inside yesterday’s Charting The Trades Workshop.
This was just one workshop inside the Festival of Trading, two days of live sessions built to sharpen your trading and unf*ck your future.
Missed e available with a free Real Vision account.
All of it builds towards our Trading League, which kicks off Monday.
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The last time momentum on the 10-year yield ran this hot, the year was 1981.
That is the observation behind this week’s chart from Real Vision member Mike, who ran the US yield back nearly seventy years.
The only earlier match sits right at the start of the great forty-year , or coincidence?
That is the observation behind this week’s chart from Real Vision member Mike, who ran the US yield back nearly seventy years.
The only earlier match sits right at the start of the great forty-year , or coincidence?
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"We're not even really close to that at all" -@cryptowithkris on what would make him sell Bitcoin.
The daily has rolled over, which is why the chart looks bad to anyone watching it day to day.
On the weekly it's still higher highs and higher lows above a rising 10-week moving close below the mega trend or a red dot replacing the green ones.
Until then he’s waiting for price and the 10-week to meet.
The daily has rolled over, which is why the chart looks bad to anyone watching it day to day.
On the weekly it's still higher highs and higher lows above a rising 10-week moving close below the mega trend or a red dot replacing the green ones.
Until then he’s waiting for price and the 10-week to meet.
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Thirty minutes to the Trade Agent Reveal!
@bruggeanico and @CryptoWithKris will pick a real ticker and let the Agent do the pro-level research LIVE.
Then, it's free to use during the Real Vision Trading League.
Don't miss out on this one: app.realvision.com/video/the-fest…
@bruggeanico and @CryptoWithKris will pick a real ticker and let the Agent do the pro-level research LIVE.
Then, it's free to use during the Real Vision Trading League.
Don't miss out on this one: app.realvision.com/video/the-fest…
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At 2:00pm ET
@bruggeanico and @CryptoWithKris reveal the Trade Agent.
Type a ticker and it does the research a pro would do.
They run it live on a real ticker, and it is free to use during the Real Vision Trading League.
@bruggeanico and @CryptoWithKris reveal the Trade Agent.
Type a ticker and it does the research a pro would do.
They run it live on a real ticker, and it is free to use during the Real Vision Trading League.
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At 12:30pm ET three analysts chart their trades live.
@CryptoWithKris covers crypto, @calebfranzen covers equities and @NathanBiyond covers FX and commodities.
Each of them marks up a live chart: where they would get in, where they would get out, and the level that tells them they are wrong.
@CryptoWithKris covers crypto, @calebfranzen covers equities and @NathanBiyond covers FX and commodities.
Each of them marks up a live chart: where they would get in, where they would get out, and the level that tells them they are wrong.
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