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One of the breadth indicators I track and publish on @RealVision hit an extreme on February 6.
79% of the top 200 crypto assets hit a 1-year new low. That's higher than June 2022.
In 2022, that reading was followed by one more flush — then the actual cycle low.
Not a buy nal.
79% of the top 200 crypto assets hit a 1-year new low. That's higher than June 2022.
In 2022, that reading was followed by one more flush — then the actual cycle low.
Not a buy nal.
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capital discipline + demand inflection = cryptos payback era.
Won't be a straight line though. Liquidity is tightening. Expect turbulence.
Always enjoy our conversions. Thanks again @BitcoinJesusETH and @milkroaddaily
Won't be a straight line though. Liquidity is tightening. Expect turbulence.
Always enjoy our conversions. Thanks again @BitcoinJesusETH and @milkroaddaily
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US margin debt is still $1.48T, even after three-month growth fell from 129% annualised in June to −5.74% in September. That’s why I’m watching equities closely: the borrowing remains, but the momentum behind it has faded.
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For a $2–3 trillion market, crypto has always been harder to track than it should be. Inconsistent data, opaque entities, and a decade of regulators neglecting their duties let all the vagaries fester.
That’s changing. The data is slowly getting better. In places, so are token l and supply discipline. It’s uneven and a long way from ideal, but the progress is real.
What feels massively different now is the sheer number of teams shipping real products. Some are finding users already. Others could bring millions of people, and eventually billions of agents, onto these networks over the coming years.
Keeping up feels like trying to drink from a garden hose that just turned into a fire hose.
Building an investment framework for this asset class isn’t easy either. This is what I focus on at @RealVision. But for investors who’ve decided to get off zero, I’d keep the allocation approach simple:
1. Bitcoin is the anchor; an SoV asset, global digitial collateral.
2. Split the market by what matters: base networks, the infrastructure connecting them, and the apps built on top.
3. Follow where the fees flow and whether token holders actually benefit.
4. Own the leaders in the segments that matter.
Step back for a second. An industry that was maligned, penalised and discriminated against is building products that could change how we communicate, store information, move value and create it. Friction is falling. TradFi is coming onboard. The agent economy is only getting started.
A new coordination layer for global finance and commerce is taking shape. Incredible to watch.
If you aren't already, join me at @RealVision. It's free to join; it's the most wicked crypto and macro investing community anywhere, and there is a tonne to learn. realvision.com/your-future
That’s changing. The data is slowly getting better. In places, so are token l and supply discipline. It’s uneven and a long way from ideal, but the progress is real.
What feels massively different now is the sheer number of teams shipping real products. Some are finding users already. Others could bring millions of people, and eventually billions of agents, onto these networks over the coming years.
Keeping up feels like trying to drink from a garden hose that just turned into a fire hose.
Building an investment framework for this asset class isn’t easy either. This is what I focus on at @RealVision. But for investors who’ve decided to get off zero, I’d keep the allocation approach simple:
1. Bitcoin is the anchor; an SoV asset, global digitial collateral.
2. Split the market by what matters: base networks, the infrastructure connecting them, and the apps built on top.
3. Follow where the fees flow and whether token holders actually benefit.
4. Own the leaders in the segments that matter.
Step back for a second. An industry that was maligned, penalised and discriminated against is building products that could change how we communicate, store information, move value and create it. Friction is falling. TradFi is coming onboard. The agent economy is only getting started.
A new coordination layer for global finance and commerce is taking shape. Incredible to watch.
If you aren't already, join me at @RealVision. It's free to join; it's the most wicked crypto and macro investing community anywhere, and there is a tonne to learn. realvision.com/your-future
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Jamie Coutts CMT retweeted
The most meaningful low of the new crypto cycle is already in, says @Jamie1Coutts
But he’s not painting over the macro: the MOVE index back above 100, real rates accelerating, high yield spreads widening, the yield curve flattening... “These are the things that do worry me.”
dy had its reset this year, and the new demand coming in doesn’t switch off because macro gets ugly.
If risk assets pull back it could be a nice chance to add.
But he’s not painting over the macro: the MOVE index back above 100, real rates accelerating, high yield spreads widening, the yield curve flattening... “These are the things that do worry me.”
dy had its reset this year, and the new demand coming in doesn’t switch off because macro gets ugly.
If risk assets pull back it could be a nice chance to add.
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One screening tip if you're entering the @RealVision Trading League:
Find what outperformed while everything else got hit in the last week.
Strength in weakness is the hint. Leaders show themselves on the way down, not the way up.
All it takes is a free account. Up to $100K in prizes, open until 20 Nov.
x.com/RealVision/sta…
Find what outperformed while everything else got hit in the last week.
Strength in weakness is the hint. Leaders show themselves on the way down, not the way up.
All it takes is a free account. Up to $100K in prizes, open until 20 Nov.
x.com/RealVision/sta…
It’s on. Our Trading League is officially open.
Post up to three trade ideas inside Real Vision between now and November 20 and compete for up to $100K in prizes.
All you need to get started is a free account. You don’t need to make any real trades, just post the idea, and it lays out in the market.
And we’re not sending you in blind… Last week we ran two days of live workshops with some of the best in the game, all recorded and ready to watch with your free account.
Plus you get a free Trade Agent to use for the whole League. Type a ticker, let it do the digging, then post the idea that holds up.
Your future. Your move.
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The fundamental investment era for crypto
It might be the topic du jour, but I’ve been writing at @RealVision all year that matket forces were correcting years of misalignment and distortion.
For four years after I entered this space, what vexed me most was how unstable factors were when applied to this asset class. I wanted to understand what actually drove token value. Quality had to be part of the answer, from first principles, but there weren’t enough protocols with product-market fit, disciplined supply and incentives aligned between insiders and token holders to make the case convincing.
The last cycle left investors disillusioned: too much VC-era grift, dilution and protocol teams whose incentives had little to do with their token holders. Trump’s arrival changed the regulatory environment, while market pressure from pissed off investors and evangelists began to exert pressure. We now have a situation where a protocol cannot just have product-market fit. It must compete on tokenomics / value accrual. Distortions haven't disappeared, but they are declining. Market forces and proper regulatory guardrails will see to that.
The top third of my quality basket is up about 35% through September, while Bitcoin and the cap-weighted Top 100 are both down about 8%. From 2022 through 2025, that basket lost about 71% while Bitcoin gained 88%. Nine months prove little statistically. Still, I’m increasingly convinced that protocols without product-market fit, supply discipline and a credible path for value to reach token holders will underperform those that have all three.
It might be the topic du jour, but I’ve been writing at @RealVision all year that matket forces were correcting years of misalignment and distortion.
For four years after I entered this space, what vexed me most was how unstable factors were when applied to this asset class. I wanted to understand what actually drove token value. Quality had to be part of the answer, from first principles, but there weren’t enough protocols with product-market fit, disciplined supply and incentives aligned between insiders and token holders to make the case convincing.
The last cycle left investors disillusioned: too much VC-era grift, dilution and protocol teams whose incentives had little to do with their token holders. Trump’s arrival changed the regulatory environment, while market pressure from pissed off investors and evangelists began to exert pressure. We now have a situation where a protocol cannot just have product-market fit. It must compete on tokenomics / value accrual. Distortions haven't disappeared, but they are declining. Market forces and proper regulatory guardrails will see to that.
The top third of my quality basket is up about 35% through September, while Bitcoin and the cap-weighted Top 100 are both down about 8%. From 2022 through 2025, that basket lost about 71% while Bitcoin gained 88%. Nine months prove little statistically. Still, I’m increasingly convinced that protocols without product-market fit, supply discipline and a credible path for value to reach token holders will underperform those that have all three.
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Festival of Trading starts in 2 days. Jam-packed educational extravaganza.
My session: my investment framework and rules of the road for active traders, incl. the art of position sizing. Plus ideas for the trading comp (Oct 19, $100K in prizes).
realvision.com/your-future
The are one of the tools members get. My Pro crypto portfolio continues to outperform Bitcoin and the Nasdaq since inception and, importantly, this year through the crypto bear market due to selection and sizing the beat risk/return ops in an oversold market.
Sessions over the 2 days from all the strategists. Nothing to lose. Plenty to learn!
My session: my investment framework and rules of the road for active traders, incl. the art of position sizing. Plus ideas for the trading comp (Oct 19, $100K in prizes).
realvision.com/your-future
The are one of the tools members get. My Pro crypto portfolio continues to outperform Bitcoin and the Nasdaq since inception and, importantly, this year through the crypto bear market due to selection and sizing the beat risk/return ops in an oversold market.
Sessions over the 2 days from all the strategists. Nothing to lose. Plenty to learn!
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Those whacky Swiss.
It’s called direct democracy. We mustn’t trust politicians. That simple
On 2 December 2001, Swiss voters approved the constitutional debt brake with 85% voting in favour. It entered into force in 2003. The mechanism is enshrined in Article 126 of the Federal Constitution.
Importantly, it is not a debt ceiling in the American sense. It does not establish an absolute maximum stock of government debt. Rather, it imposes a binding expenditure rule designed to prevent structural deficits. And it works.
Repeat our model. Friendly advice
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The supply overhang that crushed alts has dissipated and is, for the first time in the asset class's history, manageable.
Payouts to holders minus new supply, as a share of market value:
2021-22: -17% a year
2026: -2.9%
Tokens paying holders more than they dilute them: 4% then, is capital discipline. Better unlock management, maturing protocols, and revenue-funded buybacks. Tokens are starting to take on equity-like properties.
The other part is demand. It's showing up. Tokenisation first, and eventually AI agentic commerce.
Less drag, more demand. Structurally, crypto has never been in better shape.
@RealVision
Payouts to holders minus new supply, as a share of market value:
2021-22: -17% a year
2026: -2.9%
Tokens paying holders more than they dilute them: 4% then, is capital discipline. Better unlock management, maturing protocols, and revenue-funded buybacks. Tokens are starting to take on equity-like properties.
The other part is demand. It's showing up. Tokenisation first, and eventually AI agentic commerce.
Less drag, more demand. Structurally, crypto has never been in better shape.
@RealVision
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Mc weighted top 200.index base universe. Helped @BitformanceTeam design. They sell. For fundamental research @RealVision
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I can't believe the prizes that are up for grabs here. This is a great opportunity to swing hard and test your asset selection skills. Along the way, you'll get workshops and training sessions with the RV strategists. It'll be a lot of fun. If the cash prize wasn't enough, the bonus is the opportunity to experience the RV platform, which is now enhanced with:
live ticking portfolios
community trade ideas
leaderboards
community notes - our members' own private social media platform for all things investing and direct dialogue with @RealVision strategists
live ticking portfolios
community trade ideas
leaderboards
community notes - our members' own private social media platform for all things investing and direct dialogue with @RealVision strategists
Just 1 week left to enter the Trading League.
Learn from the best → test your trade ideas → stand a chance to win up to $100K in prizes.
It opens with live workshops with @RaoulGMI, @Jamie1Coutts and other top analysts.
Entry's free before Oct 15: realvision.com/your-future
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Position size is probably the most important yet underrated aspect of trading. Yet when it comes to winning a trading competition on a short-term time frame, you have to swing from the rafters. At @RealVision we are spending the week coaching short-term and long-term traders while giving everyone the opportunity to swing hard in a short term trading comp. Seperate what's the difference and have some fun!
Just 1 week left to enter the Trading League.
Learn from the best → test your trade ideas → stand a chance to win up to $100K in prizes.
It opens with live workshops with @RaoulGMI, @Jamie1Coutts and other top analysts.
Entry's free before Oct 15: realvision.com/your-future
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@RealVision No leverage, no options, as far as I'm aware on this comp
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The economics for tokens has quietly changed. After years of poor value accrual and cyclical demand, compunded by the fear of prosecution, protocols are actually paying token holders now via multiple mechanisms.
$1.95B went to holders over the last 12 months, 5x the end of 2022. ue has gone from 20% to 37%.
And it's broadening out. 9 tokens paid holders >$1M a year in 2022. Now it's 32.
This weeks @RealVision Alpha Crypto Pulse drops with the latest stats highlighting crypto's improving investibilty for institutional investors.
$1.95B went to holders over the last 12 months, 5x the end of 2022. ue has gone from 20% to 37%.
And it's broadening out. 9 tokens paid holders >$1M a year in 2022. Now it's 32.
This weeks @RealVision Alpha Crypto Pulse drops with the latest stats highlighting crypto's improving investibilty for institutional investors.
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The best way to learn markets is to put your ideas on the line and let the market grade them.
That's exactly what the @RealVision Trading League does. Starting October 19, free to enter, $100K in prizes. You post three trade ideas, the market scores them live.
Next week I'm joining @RaoulGMI , @CalebFranzen @PeterLBrandt and @AndreasSteno for two days of workshops on framework and process before the competition opens.
You also get a free trading agent for the entire run.
Sign up before Oct 15: realvision.com/your-future
That's exactly what the @RealVision Trading League does. Starting October 19, free to enter, $100K in prizes. You post three trade ideas, the market scores them live.
Next week I'm joining @RaoulGMI , @CalebFranzen @PeterLBrandt and @AndreasSteno for two days of workshops on framework and process before the competition opens.
You also get a free trading agent for the entire run.
Sign up before Oct 15: realvision.com/your-future
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Crypto is going through its own disinflation and hardly anyone is talking about it.
New token supply peaked at 26.5% a year in Dec 2021. Today it's 3.3%, the lowest in my data.
Prices haven't responded yet.
Disinflationary regimes are generally good for asset prices, productivity and economic growth. In the US, after inflation peaked in 1980 the S&P went sideways for 2 years... then did 13x. Not a perfect analogy, but food for thought.
New token supply peaked at 26.5% a year in Dec 2021. Today it's 3.3%, the lowest in my data.
Prices haven't responded yet.
Disinflationary regimes are generally good for asset prices, productivity and economic growth. In the US, after inflation peaked in 1980 the S&P went sideways for 2 years... then did 13x. Not a perfect analogy, but food for thought.
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Crypto has gone nowhere for five years: the Top 200 (market-cap weighted) is up 5% since Oct 2021.
Supply ate the demand. New supply is down from 26.5% to 3.3% a year, payouts to holders are up 5x, while demand is inflecting.
35% below the long-run trend. Crypto's payback era.
Supply ate the demand. New supply is down from 26.5% to 3.3% a year, payouts to holders are up 5x, while demand is inflecting.
35% below the long-run trend. Crypto's payback era.
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My talk at @token2049 - the thesis I've been writing about at @RealVision all year. Excited to bring this to life. If you're there, drop by and say hi.
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