Anytime I want to do my own diligent research in DeFi, I make use of some tools for a more successful research😌.

In this Thread 👇, I'm going to show you my Top20 most used research tools.

🧵🧵

I so desperately want to end the psyop that buybacks don't work:

1. Mechanically speaking, buybacks make the price go up

2. Crypto is not TradFi, there is a different social contract

> The Mechanical Value of Buybacks

First there's a large number of studies that confirm basic intreaction to Open Market Share Repurchases NBER (1995) - Buybacks create long term value, especially for underpriced stocks
* The Nature and Persistence of Buyback Anomalies (2009) - Reaffirms buybacks create persistent abnormal positive returns. They have an especially positive effect smoothing over price dips when the market overreacts to bad new
* Actual Share Repurchases, Price Efficiency, and the Information Content of Stock Prices (2017) - Reaffirms the findings of the 2009 paper. Buybacks improve pricing efficiency, liquidity, and are especially positive during market declines
* Pavilion Global Markets Buybacks Drive S&P 500 Returns (2023) - Buybacks can drive up to 43% of the returns in a single stock

tldr: buybacks make the number go up. obviously they work better when your stock is at a lower p/e because of under appreciation or market downturns unrelated to the core business, but nonetheless they are positive on the stock

THIS SHOULD BE REALLY OBVIOUS, you don't even need to read any of the papers above to understand the basic intuitions of why they work:
* Price is a function of supply and demand. When buybacks take supply off the market, price goes up all else held equal
* When shares get taken off the market, the shares you hold represent a larger share of the business meaning you benefit from EPS growth even if revenue isn't growing (let alone if it is)
* Businesses providing constant single sided buys on their own shares has a smoothing effect on liquidity making deeps shallower and setting higher price floors in the long run (more shares are repurchased on a fixed buying program when price is lower)

Some specific examples:
* about 51% of Apple's EPS growth is credited to their legendary buyback program retiring so many outstanding shares
* Autozone has bought back like 90% of their shares - the stock has had double the annualized returns of the SP for the last 2 decades
* Home Depot is similar to Autozone

What crypto people get uncomfortable is that buybacks take a long time to compound. This is totally fine in the stock market where there's many businesses you can forecast out in to the future for a decade+. In crypto I understand this rightfully makes people nervous

One prime example of this would be PONS. It kinda doesn't matter how much %of supply was bought back by PONS if their business never recovers. The entire trade/business may end up being too much a flash-in-the-pan for the long term effect of buybacks to have compounded

But we're now seeing a few crypto businesses start to cross the chasm into multi-cycle success stories. We can & should expect the businesses to implement long durable buyback programs that will compound excess positive returns for the years to come

> The importance of buybacks in crypto

I don't know if any of you noticed this, but you have no legal protections as token holders. It's also not even on any government roadmap to fix this

Regulators are just now getting around to setting some guidelines for crypto projects to not get sued - but even then, none of those guidelines relate to you. You do not have voting rights. You do not have legal recourse. In fact most times you don't even own equity in the underlying businesses which actually collect the revenues

IF token holders had legal rights. IF I could sue Compound or Aave for what they've done to token holders, I'd be far more sympathetic to the argument that teams should wait for buybacks. At the end of the day, I know I'd be able to pursue legal recourse & pressure with like minded token holders to force them to return capital when the time is right

Unfortunately, you have none of these abilities. You have nothing but the promises of the team. IN FACT, a team that likely ran a points program or other to WIN YOUR BUSINESS by trading some of their equity. I'd argue they have a moral responsibility to you to show they're aligned in the long term with you even in the lack of regulatory requirements

top 30 crypto projects by revenue in the past 30 days:

1. Tether ($523.6m)
2. Circle ($210.5m)
3. Pumpfun ($67.9m)
4. Papertrade ($65.7m)
5. Hyperliquid ($64.2m)
6. Tron ($23.9m)
7. Collector Crypt ($19.2m)
8. Grayscale ($17.9m)
9. Polymarket ($16.3m)
10. FOMO ($15.7m)
11. Axiom Pro ($14.2m)
12. Sky ($13.4m)
13. GMGN ($12m)
14. World Liberty Financial ($11.9m)
15. StonkFun ($9.8m)
16. Paxos ($9.6m)
17. Aero ($7.8m)
18. Flap(.)sh ($7.4m)
19. Ripple USD ($7.4m)
20. Uniswap ($7.4m)
21. Phantom ($6.5m)
22. Ethereum ($5.2m)
23. GMX ($5m)
24. Aave ($5m)
25. Lighter ($4.9m)
26. Chainlink ($4.3m)
27. Meteora ($4.2m)
28. PancakeSwap ($4m)
29. Jupiter ($4m)
30. Titan Builder ($3.9m)

stablecoins dominate, but perps, DEXs, lending, launchpads, wallets and even collectibles are proving there's real money in building things people use.

source: defillama

Revolut CEO Nik Storonsky: “The US is not that competitive. Europe is even less competitive.”

“China is competitive.”

“China is 9/9/6. Even if you are good in Europe, or in the US, how can you out-compete the people who work 9:00 to 9:00, six days a week?”

“I started in a 40 companies. Within 5 years, only 3 companies survived. They all worked on the weekends.”

“Within 10 years, only 2 companies survived out of 140.”

“Working weekends is a must if you want to survive. Purely statistically.”

If I could tell someone in their early 20s one thing, I would say work hard, build a career, and chase success, but don’t make the mistake of thinking that is what life is all about.

I spent years working 12 hours a day, 7 days a week. It gave me an edge, helped me get to where the person I have become. But early on the way, I realized that being good at making a living and being good at living are two very different things.

I have always been sincere about my work. I have never looked for shortcuts and have always tried to do the best I could at every job. This probably comes from how I was brought up (strict CIS parenting, with little room for joy, emotions, or the idea that doing something poorly was ever acceptable).

But there are more important things in life than professional success.

Don’t get me wrong. I still work 12 hours a day on weekdays, put in half a day on Saturdays, and work on Sundays when something important comes up. But I’ve never measured someone’s success by their career achievements or how much money they have.

From a young age, I realized that real happiness comes from other things: love, family, interests, and freedom of thought, movement, and choice.

And just by being together with my wife, I realized that no amount of money in the world will make me happier or more successful. Maybe not in the eyes of others, but certainly in my own.

I have met plenty of “successful” people when it comes to their careers. But I think most of them, if not all, have lost the bigger game in the long run. They might be great at what they do professionally, but have very little else to offer as people.

And honestly, I have fallen into this trap myself, at least partially. I can barely talk about anything other than work. When I go on vacation, I rarely switch off and find myself thinking about work instead of enjoying the break. Outside of my job, I am a pretty boring person.

That said, you have to work hard. Be honest and give your best in everything you do, whether it is your job, your relationships, or sports. Take responsibility for your life. Your decisions, your actions, and your willingness to put in the effort shape the person you become. Don’t look for shortcuts or try to play everyone around you to get on top.

Professional success and the feeling of accomplishment that comes with it are very important for most men.

But don’t become so busy making a living that you forget to make a life.

the so-called pumpfun killers are becoming its unpaid R&D team.

stonkfun popularized stock-paired memecoins on solana. pump launched its own version in september and took its share of that market's trading volume from 12% to 88% by last week.

now it's even charging up to 0.45% extra on app trades.

being first means very little when someone else owns the users.

the so-called pumpfun killers are becoming its unpaid R&D team.

stonkfun popularized stock-paired memecoins on solana. pump launched its own version in september and took its share of that market's trading volume from 12% to 88% by last week.

now it's even charging up to 0.45% extra on app trades.

being first means very little when someone else owns the users.

crypto is pretty much just getting started as an industry

Payward, the parent company of Kraken, announced its intention to be the first CFTC-regulated deployer on HIP-3* markets. Payward will use Hyperliquid as the infrastructure layer to deploy perpetual futures markets for US clients. Subject to regulatory approval, Bitnomial, Payward’s CFTC-regulated DCM and DCO, would act as the HIP-3* deployer: creating, owning, and administering the markets and clearing and settling the contracts. If approved, NinjaTrader Clearing, Payward’s CFTC-registered FCM, would carry client accounts.

HIP-3 will support optional deployer configuration for permissioned markets in a future network upgrade. This set of additional deployer functionality is collectively called HIP-3*. At its core, HIP-3* activation involves an onchain allowlist managed by the deployer or its sub-deployers. The functionality is strictly additive to HIP-3; its use is optional and up to the deployer. Existing markets remain unchanged. The initial release is available on testnet, where specifications are preliminary and subject to change based on feedback.

Hyperliquid is a neutral infrastructure layer with the goal of supporting large parts of the financial system. HIP-3* gives deployers additional functionality to operate deployments consistent with the requirements applicable to them. As with HIP-3, HIP-3* deployers are independent operators who use Hyperliquid as the onchain infrastructure layer for their own markets, while retaining control and responsibility over their deployment.

Borrowing wstETH on Aave Prime is already getting cheaper.

@TreehouseFi has committed up to 400K $TREE to reward tETH users who borrow wstETH against their collateral.

All you need to do is supply tETH and borrow wstETH to earn up to 0.5% APR in $TREE on top of your existing yield.

Pretty interesting for ETH loopers looking to improve their returns.

The campaign is live until Dec 3. Rewards may decrease as participation grows. Keep liquidation and rate risks in mind. DYOR.

If you bought $AERO last week before its 20% dump, you'd still have outperformed someone holding $TRIA for 8.5 months.

$TRIA is down 83% since launching in February.

94% if you bought the March top.

The token hasn't even celebrated its first birthday, and holders already need another bull market.

honestly, i don't blame people like this at times.

i've been on ct since 2022, and one thing that's become obvious to me is how much money i could've made doing shady stuff if i didn't care about the trust my audience has in me.

i vividly remember turning down a couple of opportunities at the peak in 2024 that could've made me over 1m.

and i'm not saying i'm a saint either. it's just difficult to ignore the incentives when honest work barely gets noticed, while even known serial ruggers somehow make their way back into the space with little to no consequences.

as long as memecoins keep gaining traction, which they definitely will, i don't see the extreme pvp culture going anywhere.

some people will get exposed because they're public, especially with social trading making everything easier to track.

but what about the silent movers using other wallets or people behind the scenes?

that's partly why i've always advocated for sustainable defi. not because it's perfect, but because i want to see more people actually make money in crypto without someone else always having to become exit liquidity.

otherwise, we'll keep pointing fingers at these guys every other week while nothing fundamentally changes.

because unfortunately, we've reached a point where people care more about how much you made than how you made it.

and that's genuinely sad.

RT @Tokenomist_ai: Tokenomist turns 4 🎂
4 years of tracking unlocks, vesting, and supply across 650+ tokens.

Here's a birthday gift:
C…

crypto founders i have a lot of respect for (in no particular order):

- @VitalikButerin (ethereum)
- @chameleon_jeff (hyperliquid)
- @0xngmi (defillama)
- @EliBenSasson (starknet)
- @AndreCronjeTech (yearn / flying tulip)
- @0xDevinG (gammaswap)
- @StaniKulechov (aave)
- @PaulFrambot (morpho)
- @PhilippZentner (jumper)
- @wagmiAlexander (aerodrome)
- @tn_pendle (pendle / boros)
- @smykjain (fluid)
- @syrupsid (maple)
- @gdog97_ (ethena)
- @mist_trading (axiom)
- @haydenzadams (uniswap)
- @newmichwill (curve)
- @RuneKek (sky)
- @weremeow (jupiter)
- @shayne_coplan (polymarket)
- @SergeyNazarov (chainlink)
- @jessepollak (base)
- @toly (solana)
- @bobbyong (coingecko)
- @justinsuntron (tron)

name a crypto project with a genuinely good product and a terrible token.

there are way more of these than people want to admit.

uniswap can now collect fees from swaps routed through competing DEXes lol.

its aggregator hooks tap Curve, Fluid, PancakeSwap etc., with fees contributing to $UNI burns.

it's now competing for order flow, not just liquidity. curious how much volume it actually captures.

writing lost a lot of its appeal to me when I realized humanity has probably already topped in literacy

there is no "crypto" anymore.

there's just blockchain and tokenization as a new frontier tech sector, disrupting the entire financial system and providing the native rails for the agentic economy to thrive.

the experimental phase was fun. but if you truly want to make it from here, you have to stop thinking inside the bubble and start opening your mind.

if you want to find the next 100x in crypto, start looking outside of it.

We owe you an apology.

On October 20, we detected unauthorized access to our official website. After verifying API activity with Shopify, we confirmed on October 23 that a third party obtained customer shipping information. You trusted us with those details, and we're sorry we didn't keep them safe.

Exposed: names, contact details, shipping addresses, and order details (items and prices).
Not exposed: payment card or bank details, recovery phrases, private keys, or wallet passwords.

We've blocked access, fixed the vulnerability, opened an investigation, and are emailing affected customers.

Scammers may pose as Keystone by phone, text, email, or mail, offering refunds, replacement devices, or "fixes" for your order or address. None of it is from us.

NEVER share your recovery phrase or private keys, and NEVER enter your recovery phrase into a device you didn't order. We will never ask for them. Don't click links in unexpected messages. Type keyst.one yourself.

A detailed report is coming soon.

Until then, trust only our official channels. If anything feels off, email support@keyst.one. We'd rather hear from you than have you take a chance.

Again, we're truly sorry to everyone affected.

As someone who spends a lot of time researching crypto projects

I think one of the worst things you can do is confuse how much research you've done with how much conviction you should have.

It's a funny market where you can spend 40 hours reading docs, studying tokenomics, listening to founder interviews, and somehow end up more emotionally attached to a coin than the team building it.

One of the biggest problems with conviction in crypto is that people treat it like something they're supposed to maintain, rather than something they're supposed to update.

You build a thesis around adoption, revenue, token demand, whatever. Six months later, usage is down, competitors are eating market share, unlocks are approaching, and you're still defending the same thesis you wrote when everything looked different.

At that point, are you holding because the opportunity is still good, or because you've spent so much time convincing yourself it is?

And I think we learn some of the wrong lessons about conviction from successful investors.

Someone holds through an 80% drawdown and makes 20x. We call it generational conviction.

Someone else does the same thing and loses everything. We call it marrying your bags.

But the outcome alone doesn't tell you whether either decision was good.

There's definitely a case for strong conviction. Some of the best trades require holding through periods where almost everyone thinks you're wrong.

But conviction should be confidence in a thesis that's still supported by evidence, not loyalty to the version of the project you first fell in love with.

A useful question is whether you'd still buy the same position today, at today's price, knowing everything you now know.

If the answer is no, it's probably worth figuring out what exactly you're still holding on to.

temmy cares.